[譯文] Looking Ahead to 2007: Alex Rodriguez

看板A-Rod作者niceta (原來我夠資深了:D)時間18年前 (2007/03/14 05:03)推噓9(9推 0噓 0→)

留言9則, 7人參與討論串1/1

終於等到這個棒球論文部落格介紹 A-Rod 了! (注意，這不是新聞唷!) 文章連結：http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/ Looking Ahead to 2007: Alex Rodriguez by SG 展望 2007: Alex Rodriguez After winning the MVP in 2005, Alex Rodriguez had what was a down year for him in 2006. It's a testament to Rodriguez's ability and talent that a 35 HR, .290/.392/.523 season would be considered disappointing, but that's the price of being the highest paid player in the game on a team that did not achieve its stated goal in 2006. 在 2005 年贏得 MVP 之後，A-Rod 在 2006 年經歷了對他來說所謂的低潮年。35 HR, .290/.392/.523 這樣的數據被視為是一個失望的球季，這說明了 A-Rod 的能力與天賦遠超過此，但對於一支未能達到 2006 年球團目標的隊伍來說，這就是成為隊中最高薪球員所需付出的代價。 I've already run through the numbers about whether or not Rodriguez has been clutch, so I'm not going to rehash that stuff here. It's a fact that he has been horrible in the postseason as a Yankee recently, but he's not the only player on the team who has been. Hopefully he gets a chance to redeem himself this year. 我已經在「A-Rod 在關鍵時刻到底能不能夠發揮」一文 (http://tinyurl.com/26jn6w 這篇文章我先棄之不理 XD) 中跑過數據，所以我就不在這裡重複贅述。他近來在洋基季後賽時表現不理想是事實，但他並非隊上唯一一個表現不好的球員。希望他今年能夠有機會為自己平反一下。 Unsurprisingly, Rodriguez projects to be the best 3B in the AL in 2007. 理所當然地，A-Rod 在 2007 年所預測出來的數據是美聯 3B 中最好的。 ------------------------------------------------------------------- <展望 2007: Alex Rodriguez – 預測數據> System Last BA OBP SLG PA BR+/- pBR+/- CHONE Rodriguez 0.297 0.395 0.551 653 43 Marcel Rodriguez 0.296 0.39 0.536 608 29 PECOTA Rodriguez 0.288 0.385 0.531 651 37 ZiPS Rodriguez 0.287 0.387 0.497 688 34 Average Rodriguez 0.292 0.39 0.529 650 36 38 Per 150 Rodriguez 0.292 0.39 0.529 650 36 38 PA Plate Appearances BR+/- Batting runs above/below average (linear weights) pBR+/- position-adjusted batting runs -------------------------------------------------------------------- Those projections make Rodriguez worth about four wins above the average 3B, and six wins above a replacement level 3B. To put that in perspective, here are the other 3B who project better for 2007. 這些預測數據讓 A-Rod 的價值比三壘手的聯盟平均還要多 4 勝，比三壘手的板凳球員還要多 6 勝。考慮到這方面，以下是 2007 年預測數據比 A-Rod 更好的三壘手。 Miguel Cabrera David Wright I'm not worried about Rodriguez's offense. I am worried about his defense, which has been lousy after an outstanding 2004. 我一點也不擔心 A-Rod 的打擊，我比較擔心的是他的守備，在輝煌的 2004 年球季之後，他的守備就一直很糟糕。 -------------------------------------------------------------------- <展望 2007: Alex Rodriguez – 守備> Year Pos Player GP GS InnOuts PO A E DP PM CH PM +/- RS ZR 2004 3B A-Rod--155 155 4093 100 262 13 25 286 364 14 11 0.786 2005 3B A-Rod--161 161 4154 115 288 12 26 321 436 -15 -12 0.736 2006 3B A-Rod--151 148 3863 96 262 24 24 289 390 -10 -8 0.741 2007 Projection-124 123 3214 83 217 14 20 239 319 -5 -4 0.749477643 Projection per 150------ 3990 103 269 17 25 297 396 -6 -5 0.749477643 E Errors DP Double Plays PM Plays Made CH Fieldable Chances PM +/- Plays Made - Avg Plays Made over same # of CH RS Runs Saved above/below average ZR Zone Rating (PM / CH) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Here's a graph showing how Rodriguez's Zone Rating compared with the AL average over the course of the year. As you can see, he fell off pretty significantly from mid-June on for whatever reason. 下圖顯示了 A-Rod 在 06 年的 Zone Rating 與其他美聯平均的比較。如你所見到的，他的守備從六月中就開始莫名的大幅下滑。 (呃…這個圖我不會畫…麻煩大家看一下網頁) Rodriguez lost about 15 pounds this offseason in an attempt to regain some of his agility. Hopefully it can help his defense. A-Rod 在球季結束後減掉了大約 15 磅，為的就是要讓自己恢復像以前那般靈活，希望這對他的守備能夠有所幫助。 For those who can't see the embedded tables above, you can use this link instead. 如果你看不到上面的內嵌表格，你可以使用此連結：http://tinyurl.com/28hhgs Since I looked at Rodriguez's play by play batting splits fairly extensively in the post I linked near the top, I'm going to do a little something different and look at how many errors he made behind each pitcher on the Yankees in 2006. 既然我都已經在最上面的文章連結中相當廣泛地回顧了A-Rod每個Play的打擊數據，我現在要來點不一樣的，那就是計算他在06 年各個洋基投手站上投手丘時他的失誤次數。 ---------------------- Pitchers 　# Errors Mussina 　　　7 Johnson 　 3 Wang 　　　　3 Chacon 　　　　 2 Proctor 2 Small 　　　　2 Wright 　　　　2 Farnsworth　　　1 Lidle 　　　　1 Rivera 　　　　1 ----------------------- That couldn't have sat well with Mike Mussina. 這樣的結果，對 Moose 來說應該無法接受吧。 Lastly, here's how Rodriguez's errors as a Yankee break down vs opponents. 最後，以下是 A-Rod 在洋基輸球時所犯失誤次數與對戰球隊。 ----------------- Opp Total BOS 9 OAK 7 SEA 7 NYN 4 TBA 4 TOR 3 ANA 2 ATL 2 BAL 2 CHA 2 DET 2 TEX 2 COL 1 MIN 1 SLN 1 Total 49 ------------------ I won't get into the soap opera that surrounds Rodriguez, because honestly I feel it's boring. We're going to be hearing and reading about his opt-out option all year. The same people that are going to be bringing it up constantly are the ones trying to run him out of town, at which point they can criticize him for leaving, instead of criticizing him for staying and wanting to get rid of him. I'd ask the people who want to dump Rodriguez one simple question. Who do you replace him with? You're not getting Miguel Cabrera or David Wright to fill that hole. 我可不想去扯一些環繞著A-Rod的肥皂劇戲碼，因為老實講，我覺得那挺無聊的。我們一整年都會聽到或讀到有關他的 opt-out option。會不斷提起這話題的人，都是一些巴不得他趕快離開紐約的同一批人，如果他真的出走，到時他們又可以批評他離開洋基，而不用批評他為何要留在洋基並煩惱要如何擺脫他。我現在要問那些想要擺脫A-Rod的人一個簡單的問題：你要找誰來替補他？你不可能找到 Miguel Cabrera 或 David Wright 來補那個大洞的。 All I care about is if Rodriguez helps the Yankees win games. That's all any fans should really care about. My one concession is the A-Rod cover counter on the left, where we'll be keeping track of his back page appearances all season. Let's hope it's mainly for game-winning hits. 我只在乎 A-Rod 是否能夠幫助洋基贏球，而那也是所有的球迷所該關心的重點。唯一破例的就是在左側有個關於 A-Rod 登上封面次數的計數器，我們會在那裡追蹤 A-Rod 這整季出現在背頁封面的次數，大家就祈禱那都是有關 A-Rod 擊出致勝安的報導。 (大家可以找一下網頁左邊欄位的 A-Rod Cover Counter，目前次數3次… XD) I feel like I should write more to defend Rodriguez, but instead, I'm going to quote from an article on ESPN. I basically avoid ESPN like I avoid 2004 ALCS "highlights", but I saw a very fair piece on Rodriguez linked at High and Tight from Yankee-basher Jim Caple. 我覺得我應該要寫些什麼來為 A-Rod 辯護，但是相反地，我要引用一篇ESPN的文章。通常我都會避免去看ESPN (註：因為美國ESPN 有反洋基傾向)，就如同我會避免去看 2004 年ALCS 的「焦點回顧」一樣 (囧)，但是我從 High and Tight (此乃洋基迷的部落格) 的連結看到一篇出自反洋基迷 Jim Caple 的好文： (這篇文章前面 959 有板友翻過，所以我就略過了) I mean, what has he ever done that is so bad? Despite his best efforts at living a clean, responsible life, he has a worse reputation than Terrell Owens. I know I've mocked him as much as anyone, but now I mostly feel sorry for him. He's one of the best players in the game, and people act as if he's Bubba Crosby. Enough is enough. Forget the soap operas that stem from his silly insecurities -- any day now I expect him to shave his head -- I'm going to root for A-Rod this season. No more cheap shots, no more easy punch lines … from now on, I'm his No. 1 fan. Not quite like Kathy Bates in "Misery," but I'm pulling for him all the way. And here's why you should root for him as well. Root for A-Rod because years from now, you'll be bragging to your children and grandchildren that you saw one of the greatest players who ever took the field. You'll be able to say, "I saw Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 home runs and 123 RBIs in his first full season. I saw him hit 409 home runs by the time he was 30. I saw him win an MVP at shortstop for a last-place team one year and then win an MVP at third base for a first-place team two years later. I saw him hit .315 with four home runs in three American League Championship Series. I saw him play in 10 All-Star games his first 11 seasons." It may not sound as sweet as telling your kids, "I saw A-Rod hit a World Series-winning home run in the bottom of the 10th inning," but it certainly sounds much better than telling them, "I threw fake dollar bills and garbage at A-Rod because he signed a contract that I would have killed to get." Root for A-Rod because if you don't like Barry Bonds challenging Hank Aaron's home run record, just wait -- Rodriguez might wind up passing Bonds in a decade. A-Rod hasn't testified before a grand jury that he "unknowingly" took steroids, but he has hit 464 home runs, which is a total Aaron didn't reach until he was two years older than Rodriguez is now and a total Bonds didn't reach until he was almost four years older. Trust me, if A-Rod does set the home run record, you'll not only be rooting for him then, the commissioner will show up to see it. Root for A-Rod because despite all you hear about him choking in the playoffs (and yes, he has stunk the past two Octobers) he still has nearly as high a career postseason OPS as Jeter (.847 to .863). A-Rod also hit for a higher average and produced more runs in the 2004 postseason than Jeter did. In fact, Jeter has played in 24 postseason series and hit .233 or less in nearly one-third of them. That's not to knock Jeter, but only to point out that if you play enough postseason series, you're going to shine in some and stink in others. Give A-Rod another chance this fall, and he will rise to the occasion. Especially if he feels as if fans would rather see him succeed than bitch about his failures. Root for A-Rod because, other than saying stupid things, he never does anything to embarrass his team or the game. He never gives less than his best. He never approaches the game with anything less than complete professionalism. So what if he can't help himself from making ridiculous statements in an attempt to please everyone at all times? There are far worse crimes for an athlete -- and we complain about them all the time. But mostly, root for A-Rod because if he has another MVP season and shines in October, all those obnoxious Yankees fans will have to shut up and quit blaming him for everything that ever goes wrong with a team that has needed better pitching ever since it let Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte go. I agree with Caple completely. 我完全同意Caple 所說的。 --- 翻完有種想吐的感覺...有錯請指正... (倒) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.229.139.13