[討論] Sickels on 訐譙龍

看板Angels作者 (--fengels--)時間17年前 (2008/09/05 22:56), 編輯推噓7(7014)
留言21則, 6人參與, 最新討論串1/1
Prospect Retro: Howie Kendrick by John Sickels on Sep 3, 2008 9:54 AM PDT Howie Kendrick was drafted by the Angels in the 10th round in 2002, out of St. John's River Community College in Florida. His pro debut was a success: .318/.368/.408 in the Arizona Rookie League, with 12 steals. He drew just seven walks, but fanned only 11 times in 157 at-bats. I didn't rate many short-season players back then, but a similar player now would get something like a "Grade C with higher potential" rating due to the very low strikeout rate. 好姨是我們2002年第10輪選進來的,在短期 Arizona Rookie League的 157 個打數,三圍 .318/.368/.408,盜壘 12 次,7 個保送,但僅 僅吃了 11 次三振。因為極低的三振率,以現在標準來說,Sickles 會把他評為潛力股的 Grade C。 Kendrick moved up to the Pioneer League in 2003, hitting .368/.434/.517 for Provo. He got attention from scouts for his excellent contact hitting skills, though doubts were raised about his defense. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, writing that I wasn't sure where he'd fit glove-wise, but that the bat looked good. 訐譙龍2003進入先鋒聯盟,三圍.368/.434/.517,因為 contact 技巧 很好而受到球探的矚目。 Sickles 在 2004 的 prospect book 給他等 級 C+,評語是打擊佳,但是守備能力未定。 Moved up to Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2004, Kendrick hit .367/.398/.578, which are terrific numbers anywhere but especially in the Midwest League, not an easy place to hit. His walk rate remained quite low, but he didn't strike out much and the production was impossible to ignore. He also improved defensively. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2005 book, rating him as an excellent prospect. 到了低階 A 的麥子隊,在對打者不友善的環境下打出 .367/.398/.578 的亮眼三圍。雖然保送率仍然頗低,但三振也不多;此外在守備上也有 所進步。 2005 的 prospect book 評為極佳的 prospect,等級 B+。 Kendrick began 2005 with Rancho Cucamonga in the California League, hitting .384/.421/.638. Promoted to Double-A at midseason, he continued ripping the ball without missing a beat at a .342/.382/.579 clip. He stole 25 bases on the season, and while he walked just 20 times, he also struck out just 62 times in 469 at-bats while hitting 43 doubles and 19 homers. About the only negative was some problems turning the double play. I gave him a Grade A-, rating him as a future star and ranking him the number 10 hitting prospect in baseball. 2005年訐譙龍從 high-A 的地震隊出發,打出.384/.421/.638。季中升 上 2A 後,棒子絲毫沒有降溫,繼續繳出 .342/.382/.579 的成績單。 469 個打數中,擊出43個二安和19發全壘打;有25次盜壘,只有 20 個 保送和 62 K。唯一的缺點在於雙殺守備有些問題。所以 06 的 book 把 他評為打擊新秀第 10 名,等級 A- 。 He followed that up by hitting .369/.408/.631 in 69 games of Triple-A in 2006, then .285/.314/.416 in the majors. He hit .322/.347/.450 in 2007 with the Angels, then .308/.334/.428 this year. He's a .306/.333/.432 hitter overall in the majors. Kendrick hardly ever walks, but his strikeout rate is low and he has an unusual ability to make hard contact even on pitches most hitters shouldn't swing at. The biggest difficulty he faces is staying healthy, which is becoming a persistent problem. If he can avoid major health issues, Kendrick will contend for batting titles in the coming years. But that's a big IF. 訐譙龍的確很少撿到保送,然而三振率也相當低。即使一般打者根本不會 揮擊的球,他也有本事打得相當結實。訐譙龍一直以來健康有些問題,如 果沒有重大的傷病,未來幾年他將會在角逐打擊王頭銜之列--但健康與否 就是最大的問題所在。 ps.附一下 BR 訐譙龍的成績: http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kendrho01.shtml === 我比較好奇的是,好姨在小聯盟每季 300 ~ 400 多個 PA 都可以幹個 10 幾發本,但是為什麼上來以後好像這項能力一直還沒表現出來呢...? 我認為以他的能力,每季產個十來二十發應該不成問題的呀.. orz -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.246.30

09/05 23:08, , 1F
推這篇 至於長打數字 天使農場的A+和AAA都對打者頗友善
09/05 23:08, 1F

09/05 23:08, , 2F
所以用那些數字要直接預測10~20發的全壘打是有些不合理
09/05 23:08, 2F

09/05 23:10, , 3F
從以前我個人就有點好奇以他不算特別高的LD% 要如何長期維持
09/05 23:10, 3F

09/05 23:10, , 4F
那麼高的打擊率
09/05 23:10, 4F

09/05 23:11, , 5F
而且他打太多壞球了限制了把球幹遠的可能性
09/05 23:11, 5F

09/05 23:11, , 6F
大聯盟的壞球沒有小檸檬的那麼好打
09/05 23:11, 6F

09/05 23:14, , 7F
推~~我喜歡這小子
09/05 23:14, 7F

09/05 23:16, , 8F
在LD拉不高的情況可以用特別低的三振率來維持高打率
09/05 23:16, 8F

09/05 23:17, , 9F
謝謝 Levi ㄉㄉ,話是說好姨在 Arkansas的樣本少,所以
09/05 23:17, 9F

09/05 23:18, , 10F
我沒注意到 hitter friendly 的聯盟影響...
09/05 23:18, 10F

09/05 23:23, , 11F
綠綠ㄉㄉ,所以說好姨的 LD% 會限制到他的 babip 囉?
09/05 23:23, 11F

09/05 23:24, , 12F
我的意思是..他打了一大堆grounders,從以前到現在都是如此
09/05 23:24, 12F

09/05 23:24, , 13F
那些滾地球滾出內野的機率顯然比正常情況高
09/05 23:24, 13F

09/05 23:26, , 14F
打者對於babip有一些控制力,但是他的babip也一直高於平均
09/05 23:26, 14F

09/05 23:26, , 15F
他的LD%大概都在16%~18%之間 所以這麼高的babip會讓人擔心
09/05 23:26, 15F

09/05 23:27, , 16F
如果他是個有20% LD%的傢伙 那我就不太擔心他了
09/05 23:27, 16F

09/05 23:30, , 17F
某位準hofer的二壘手前幾年也是LD%爆低 babip卻爆高
09/05 23:30, 17F

09/05 23:40, , 18F
那位準hofer靠的是熊庹 那是特例啊
09/05 23:40, 18F

09/05 23:40, , 19F
謝謝各位農委鄉親,大概懂了 XD
09/05 23:40, 19F

09/05 23:41, , 20F
希望好姨能回來一起進世○○○啦 :p
09/05 23:41, 20F

09/06 00:56, , 21F
雖然小聯盟是對打者友善 但他今年幹的砲也太少了吧
09/06 00:56, 21F
文章代碼(AID): #18mKY4AV (Angels)
文章代碼(AID): #18mKY4AV (Angels)