Takahashi Can Start
Hisanori Takahashi has proven himself to be both a versatile and
talented pitcher in his short time with the New York Mets. The 35-year-
old Japanese rookie has a 3.95 ERA and a 3.79 FIP in 107 innings split
between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Between the two,
Takahashi has compiled 1.4 WAR and shown that he is worth of a full time
MLB starting role.
Takahashi's agent, Peter Greenberg, released a statement that suggested
that Takahashi may prefer a partciular role and that said role is a
determinant in which team Takahashi signs with in 2011:
"He has obviously established himself in the major leagues. He liked it
in New York and would love the chance to take the next step here. But
we'll have to wait until the season ends to sit down with him to see
what he's thinking for next year as far as if he has a preference to any
particular role."
Given that Takahashi spent most of his years with the Yomiuri Giants in
the NPB as a starting pitcher, and that he has managed a 2.6 K/BB as a
starter in the MLB, the "particular role" and "next step" suggested by
Greenberg is probably the role of Major League starter. Takahashi has
posted a 5.01 ERA as a starter in 2010, but that is mostly due to a high
HR/FB rate – his 2.6 K/BB rate in that role is effectively equal to his
K/BB rate as a reliever.
Even with the high amount of home runs allowed, Takahashi has still
posted roughly half a win as a MLB starter in 64.1 innings. At that
rate, he would be a 1.5 WAR pitcher over a full season, and with
regression over his HR rate., there's no reason to believe Takahashi
wouldn't be an above average pitcher. One needs only to look at his
success as a reliever to see how: in 42 relief innings, Takahashi has
struck out 54 batters while walking only 18 and allowing only one home
run. Takahashi has been nothing short of fantastic in his relief role,
compiling nearly one whole win above replacement in 42 innings in the
role.
The fact that Takahashi has been so successful in the relief role seems
to suggest that he remains there, but the only real difference between
his perfomance as a starter and as a reliever appears to be the amount
of home runs allowed. It is likely that Takahashi (or any other pitcher,
for that matter) would allow more home runs as a starter than as a
reliever, but not to the extent that Takahashi has in his one major
league season: a 1.54 HR/9 as a starter against a 0.18 HR/9 as a
reliever. It's far more likely that Takahashi would allow a 1.00 HR/9 as
a starter like he has overall this season. With that kind of home run
line, his 2.6 K/BB would play quite well in a starting role.
The fact that Hisanori Takahashi has given up a multitude of home runs
as a starter belies the kind of season that he is having. In reality,
Takahashi has shown that he has no problem retiring Major League
hitters. Yes, he may be more suited to a relief role – in reality, most
pitchers are – but there's certainly reason to believe that he can
succeed in a starting role. If that is indeed the case, teams should
target him as a starter – not only would Takahashi be more likely to
sign, but the increased amount of innings would lead to more value added
to the team as well.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/takahashi-can-start/
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