[情報] Future Redbirds Top 20: 7-10

看板Cardinals作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/12/29 22:04)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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We’re gonna wrap this up before the New Year. Pitchers dominate today’s entry with a touch of third baseman. Hopefully, this helps cope with the holiday hangover. [azru edit: Adding is apparently problematic for me as Alex noted in the comments. #9 -> #10 and vice versa] =============================================================================== #10 - Mitch Boggs - Age: 25 (by opening day) Rank: erik - 9, roarke - 12, azruavatar - 9 2008: (AAA) 125.1 IP, 81K/46BB, 49% GB, 4.51 FIP (MLB) 34 IP, 13K/22BB, 51% GB, 6.37 FIP Player Comment: Boggs is a little vanilla, but he receives high ranks from me because he’s pitched well at every level in the majors and I believe his presence in the system is a big reason why the Cardinals will not do anything dumb this winter, like signing Jon Garland. (Hopefully I didn’t jinx anything there). Seeing him pitch on television a few times I came across quite impressed with his sinker, but it’s quite obvious he needs to get more consistent with his breaking ball. If the Cards can’t pick up anyone worthwhile in free agency (and the pickins are getting slimmer), then I no trouble letting Boggs, Walters and perhaps McClellan compete for the 5th starter job. 4th/5th starter really is about all he portends to be, unless he can pick up a swing and miss pitch. ~erik Jeff Luhnow doesn’t get enough credit for this 2005 draftee but he deserves it. Boggs has a plus fastball with both velocity and movement. His numbers, however, are consistently underwhelming in comparison to seeing his stuff on video. His curveball is a good breaking pitch although location can be an issue. With two above average pitches, there’s no reason he can’t fill out the back of a rotation. His long term upside is dependent on smoothing out some kind of a third pitch and refining how he puts away batters. ~azruavatar #9 - Jess Todd - Age: 22 Rank: erik - 7, roarke - 8, azruavatar - 11 2008: (A+) 27.1 IP, 35K/7BB, 45% GB, 1.52 FIP (AA) 103 IP, 81K/24BB, 53% GB, 4.37 FIP (AAA) 22.2 IP, 20K/10BB, 48% GB, 5.63 FIP Player Comment: There were a lot of us that were really excited about Jess Todd until we saw him pitch at the Futures Game. Maybe it was a bad day, but I didn’t see the dominating stuff that I expected. His numbers at Springfield and Memphis weren’t as dominating as those in Palm Beach, which is probably to be expected of a guy his age, but consider my enthusiasm tempered. He still ended up as the highest ranked starting pitcher on my list, but I’m not sure if that says more about Todd or the pitchers that I had ranked ahead of him last year. ~roarke What I like about Todd isn’t so much his pitches but his pitchability. I like the fact that he was able to quickly assimilate the ability to sink and cut his fastball, which has made it difficult for opponents pick him up. What I’m iffy on is his ultimate role. It’s not just his smaller frame, it’s the effort which he throws with. With his repertoire and pitching acumen I would not write him off as a starter, but it’s hard for me to envision. t’s easy to to picture him as a set up reliever, or maybe even a poor man’s closer. ~erik #8 - Jaime Garcia - Age: 22 Rank: erik - 10, roarke - 13, azruavatar - 3 2008: (AA) 35 IP, 41K/16BB, 62% GB, 2.55 FIP (AAA) 71 IP, 59K/26BB, 55% GB, 4.17 FIP (MLB) 16 IP, 8K/8BB, 63% GB, 7.05 FIP Player Comment: Placing Garcia proved difficult for me. On one hand, the success rate for pitchers undergoing Tommy John is pretty high. On the other hand, it’s not totally a slam dunk he’ll come back 100% and of course he’ll be of no use to the Cardinals in 2009. Despite the fact he’s going to lose a season, he’ ll should be ready come back at a relatively young age. His ability to miss bats and burn worms is most impressive, and I believe his upside is the highest among Cardinal starters in the system. ~erik I had the same problem as Erik: fully healthy, Garcia would have made my top 5, but I wasn’t sure how to value him at this point. I fully expect Garcia to provide (more) value at the major league level, but I felt that the injury and loss of a season had to be taken into account. The truth is that my ranking is equal to a vote of “I’m not sure”. ~roarke Being the obvious outlier, there’s some justification to be made here. I’m confident that the Cardinals can perform a TJ surgery. Beyond that, Garcia is the only starting pitching prospect that I have high hopes for in the system. A good fastball with a plus curveball and a serviceable change-up. While age for pitchers isn’t something that worries me overmuch, he’ll still be young after missing a year. Name another pitcher in the system that strikes batters out at his rate and gets those kind of groundball numbers. You can’t. ~azruavatar #7 - David Freese - Age: 25 Rank: erik - 12, roarke - 4, azruavatar - 8 2008: (AAA) 510 PAs, .306/.361/.511, .387 wOBA Player Comment: While in the San Diego system, Freese was buried in the depth chart behind Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley. Now a St. Louis Cardinal, it has to feel a little bit like deja vu all over again for Freese. The main knock on Freese is he is considered to be old for a prospect, but he was drafted as a fifth year senior out of college and within just two full minor league seasons he appears to be ready for a big league job. While there are questions as to whether Wallace or Craig should be moved to another position, there aren’t those doubts about Freese; if anything, defense is one of the better assets to his game. ~erik My feeling is that Freese could probably already be a major league average third baseman. He’s got a solid bat and is probably a better defensive third baseman than either Craig or Wallace. He will probably never be a star, but his prime years could provide some 25-30 homerun seasons with solid plate discipline and good defense - I’m thinking that a Mike Lowell-ish upside (probably without the gold glove, though) isn’t out of the question. ~roarke The 2008 power was aberrant in my opinion and I don’t see more than 20 HR power in the bigs. I’m not a believer in the bat but I have to set that aside to a certain extent if I’m going to be objective about his statistics. He made a significant jump from A ball to AAA but the overall skillset and what I’ve seen of him leaves me uninspired that he’s more than what he is now. This feels like a Mark Hamilton ranking to me, i.e. one I’m going to regret a year from now, but rationally I think he’s a top 10 choice. ~azruavatar -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3