John Dewan談防守

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812時間16年前 (2009/04/08 14:03)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/da94gl 廢話不多說，直接進入正題 For those who aren’t familiar, can you briefly explain how your system works? We have a bunch of different methods that we use to evaluate defense. It’s actually eight different methods. The major method is the plus/minus system. What that does is it measures defensive effectiveness, measuring range and positioning for defenders. It’s a simple system. If the number is plus for a player, it means he is above average and minus is below average. The plus and minus translates into plays. We’ll give you Chris Young in center field. Last year, had a plus/minus figure of plus-6. That means he made six plays more than you would expect of the average center fielder. What’s especially interesting is he made the plays when they counted. That plus-6 becomes a plus-21 when you take into account the extra bases he saved. He saved enough doubles and triples that he saved all these extra bases. He was minus-5 on shallow balls, plus-10 on balls that were medium-deep, and his real strength, especially last year, he was plus-16 on deep balls. It’s those deep balls that really make the biggest difference. He probably plays a little deeper, which I think makes a difference. We’ve taken all these different methods and converted them into runs saved. When you consider his throwing arm and his range and positioning, he saved nine runs. From a throwing arm standpoint, he lost three runs. Q: 可以簡單介紹一下你的防守評估系統嗎? A: 我們用八種不同的方法來評估防守，其中最主要的一種叫plus/minus system。正號和負號分別表示平均以上或是平均之下，數字則是代表多或少接到幾球。以Chris Young為例，去年他他的數字是+6，比平均水準的中外野手多守下六球。有趣的是，他多守下的球是比較有價值的。如果以壘包數來計算，他的+6會變成+21。他的淺球防守是-5，中距離防守是+10，而他真正的強項，深遠飛球防守，則是+16。這樣的差異我想可能是他的站位比較後面的關係所致。我們將所有不同的評估方法蒐集起來，單位轉換成分數。考慮Chris Young的臂力和守位和範圍，他多守下九分。只看臂力的話，他多失了三分。 What are the system's drawbacks? If you look at hitting and pitching statistics, you can use them to get you an 80-90 percent read on how good a player is. Fielding statistics aren’t quite there yet, even the ones we created. Back 10 years ago when all we had was fielding percentage, we could measure defense 5 percent. You still had to watch 95 percent to get an understanding. I think the last book was at 40 percent. And I think this book brings us to 60 percent. The rest is you’ve still got to watch them, scout them and come up with observational data. Q: 這個系統的缺陷是什麼? A: 你知道的，防守是很難評估的。我想我的系統可以做到反映出60%的真實程度，剩下的剩下的還是要靠肉眼真實的去觀察球員。 What are your thoughts on right fielder Justin Upton? You guys have a tremendous talent in right field. He’s 21 years old and already a full-time regular. But defensively … In terms of covering ground, he did all right. He saved two runs with his position and range and he saved three runs with his arm. He had six kills. A kill is a direct throw to the base, not a relay. But his real problem was all those mistakes that he makes. He made 38 defensive misplays and errors. The place where he struggled most was mishandling a ball after a safe hit, allowing the runner to take an extra base. He had eight of those. Four times he threw the ball offline after a hit. He does OK in terms of fielding most fly balls, but after a ball is a base hit, that’s when he has trouble. The good news is, a young ballplayer is going to learn and mature as he plays more often. Q: Justin Upton如何? A: 他是很有天份的球員，但防守上來說...他的range還算ok。他的防守範圍多守下了兩分臂力方面則是三分。他有六次助殺。他最大的問題是基本功不好，發生了38次的守備瑕疵。他的困難是不知道該如何處理安打球，而讓跑者搶下額外的壘包。有四次他把球傳到外太空去了。接飛球的部份倒是還好。好消息是，通常年輕球員會隨著經驗增加而成長。 Players have always said that Chase’s infield is very fast. How do you take this into account in your statistics? Right now, we categorize balls as being hit hard, medium and soft. So on a fast infield, you’re going to get more balls characterized as balls that might be soft elsewhere that are called medium, and balls that might be medium elsewhere as hard. Other than that, there could be some bias in the numbers. We’re actually adding an element this year that will help us improve on that. We’re adding a batted ball timer. After a ball leaves the bat, we’ll check with a stopwatch how long it takes the ball to get to the fieldable position. So, a ball that takes 1.2 seconds to get there is going to be easier to field than a ball that takes 0.95 seconds. What we’re going to be able to do is compensate for that fast infield so that it will all be the same. How long it takes to get to the shortstop position will be equalized between different parks. Q: 聽說Chase Field的內野球比較快，你的看法是? A: 目前我們只把球分成快速球、中速球和慢速球，所以在快速球場中，你會接到比較多的快速球。今年我們會新增計時項目，這樣就可以校正快速內野的變因。 I wrote a story last July about Stephen Drew. At the time, according to Bill James Online, Drew was at plus-7, the fourth-best shortstop in the majors. He finished the season minus-5, ranking 26th. Do you have any theories as to what happened? Was four months of data too small a sample size? I think the most significant part of that is sample size. For example, we don ’t even measure the system in April. There’s not enough information based on the balls that were hit in all of baseball to get a good assessment. If you were looking at it in July, you still had about a half season so it should give you some good evidence. I would venture to suggest that he played better defense in the first half. One of the most important factors there is sample size. Not just his work, we’re looking at batted balls all across baseball. So as the season goes on we’re going to get a bigger base to see how often fielders make the play. One thing interesting about Drew is he is much better going to his right. That’s a pattern he has shown every year. Q: 去年季中時Stephen Drew的數字是+7，會什麼在球季結束後卻變成-5了? A: 我想部分原因是樣本數大小的關係，此外也可能是他在下半季的守備變差了。一件有趣的事是Drew的反手守備明顯較好，他每年都有這樣的傾向。 Do you see any hope for Mark Reynolds? Yes because he’s a young player. Bill James wrote an article in here and went through all of Reynolds’ misplays. He had the most misplays plus errors of any player in baseball. What we seem to be seeing is that players who are younger make more misplays than players who are older. In left field, the leader was Delmon Young, Reynolds at third, B.J. Upton in center. He’s new to center. In right field, Brad Hawpe had the most, but Justin Upton really had the most per inning played. Reynolds has not had a lot of time at third base. He played shortstop in college and I think that with a young player like that, I think they can improve their ability to avoid misplays more than they can improve their range. There were 13 balls that rolled under his glove or between his legs. And to me, that’s just repetition. But I wouldn’t mind seeing him tried out at second base. Having been a shortstop, he knows the middle of the infield. Q: Mark Reynolds? A: 他還年輕。他是全聯盟發生最多次防守瑕疵的選手。他其實在三壘的經驗還不夠多，他在大學時是守游擊，對這樣的年輕人來說，我想他們最終會慢慢有所進步。他去年演了13次火車過山洞，對我來說，這只是因為缺乏練習而已。(那王金勇勒?) 但我也不反對他去轉職二壘。他知道該怎麼防守中間內野。 What about Felipe Lopez? His performance on defense doesn’t really seem to line up with his ability. His defense last year was rather… This is going to be blasphemous to probably everybody who reads it, but I’m going to show it to you anyway. Over Lopez’s career he has played about one full season at second base. He’ s lost 15 runs based on our metrics. Augie Ojeda in his career has played about a half season of major league innings at second base. He’s saved nine runs. If Augie Ojeda played a full season, you could speculate he would save 18 runs. That might not necessarily be true. The difference is 33 runs. So how much better of a hitter is Lopez than Ojeda? Based on our projections, he ’s 27 runs better. So that means Ojeda, overall, is six runs better. Having said that, I’d give Felipe Lopez another chance. But if you look at it completely objectively by the numbers. … I think Lopez can do better than minus-15 over a full season. I consider him below average but I think he can get down into the minus-5 or minus-10 category. Q: Felipe Lopez? A: 他去年的防守...ㄜ...其實他只有一整季的二壘經驗，而多失了15分。Augie Ojeda則有半季的二壘經驗，而多守下了9分。如果考慮防守和打擊，Ojeda會比Lopez好上6分。不過，我會給Lopez一個機會。我想他不是像帳面上的-15那樣爛的防守者。他是低於平均沒錯，但他的能力應該是介於-5到-10之間。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3