[MLB ] Inbox: Bourn due for rise in stolen ba

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Inbox: Bourn due for rise in stolen bases? Beat reporter Jordan Bastian answers Indians fans' questions By Jordan Bastian / MLB.com | 1/6/2014 2:03 P.M. ET http://ppt.cc/8Dpt Last year, I was surprised to see a decrease in stolen bases from Michael Bourn. He had 61 in 2011 and 42 in '12. Now that Drew Stubbs has been traded, do you anticipate a more aggressive Bourn on the bases this season? Or do you think 20-25 stolen bases can be expected again? -- Betsy W., Perrysburg, Ohio 我相當訝異Michael Bourn去年的盜壘竟然減少這麼多。他在11年61盜，12年時也還有42盜呢。現在Stubbs被交易掉了，你認為Bourn在壘上會更積極嗎？還是你覺得他仍然只能有20～25盜？ -- Betsy W., Perrysburg, Ohio I'm not sure trading Stubbs to the Rockies will have an impact on Bourn's individual baserunning performance. Whether Stubbs was still on the team or not, I believe Bourn would still be taking a more aggressive approach on the bases in 2014. 我不確定把Stubbs交易到洛磯會不會對Bourn的個人跑壘有什麼影響。但我相信不管Stubbs是不是在隊上，Bourn在14年會更具壘上破壞力。 Bourn repeatedly cited an unfamiliarity with the American League as a possible explanation for his decline in stolen bases in 2013, when he ended with 23 in the first season with the Indians. It's also worth noting that the Major Leagues as a whole last year turned in the lowest stolen-base total (2,693) since 2005. Of course, that alone doesn't explain Bourn's drop-off. Bourn對美聯的不熟悉可能是他13年盜壘次數下降的原因，他在克里夫蘭的第一年只有23次盜壘，不過值得注意的是全聯盟去年只有2693盜，2005年以來最少。所以單是剛剛提到的也許不能解釋Bourn的下滑。 I'd expect an improvement from Bourn, but I'm not sure he's going to be a threat to steal 50 or 60 bases like he was in the past. His percentage of stolen bases to stolen-base opportunities has decreased in each of the past three seasons (down to 9.6 percent in 2013 from 21.3 percent in '10). Bourn's success rate has also dropped to 72 percent in 2012-13 after sitting at 83 percent from 2007-11. 我預期Bourn會反彈，但會不會像以往一樣動輒5、60盜就是個問題。他盜壘/盜壘機會比這三年持續下滑，10年的21.3％到去年的9.6％。他的盜壘成功率也從07-11年的83％跌到12-13年的72％。 Familiarity with the AL will surely help in 2014, but another key for Bourn will be improving his on-base percentage. In '13, Bourn had a .316 OBP (lowest since '08), compared to a .348 OBP across the 2009-12 seasons, when he averaged 54 stolen bases per year. Bourn's strikeout rate went up and his walk rate down last season, so returning closer to his career norms would be a step in the right direction. 對美聯熟悉一點可能會有所幫助，但另一個關鍵是Bourn能不能增加他的上壘率。去年Bourn只有.316的上壘率，08年以來最差。他09-12年平均上壘率是.348，每年54盜。 Bourn had 41.6 percent of his plate appearances develop into stolen-base chances in 2013. That figure decreased for the second straight season, but it also was higher than in 2010 (40.3) and '08 (35.2), when he stole 52 and 41 bases, respectively. That shows that Bourn didn't capitalize on his chances as he had in years past. I'd wager that he's aiming to correct that trend next season. Bourn在13年有41.6％的打席會出現盜壘機會。雖然連兩季都在下滑，但這比10年的40.3％和08年的35.2％都高，當時他分別52盜和41盜。這顯示出Bourn並沒有如以往善加利用他的機會。我打賭他這季會好好修正方針的。 Do you expect the Indians to make any late free-agency moves similar to last year, or will they stay put? My inclination is that they are maxed on money spent, but I would hope they could find someone to help bolster the rotation or lineup. -- Ken G., Rocky River, Ohio 你會預期印地安人像去年一樣後期才在自由市場上有動作，還是他們會啥都不幹？我個人傾向他們有一定預算，但我還是希望他們可以找到人來充實輪值或打線。 -- Ken G., Rocky River, Ohio The Indians had a unique situation last offseason with a protected first-round Draft pick and an extra compensatory pick. Due to that, Cleveland was able to sign both Nick Swisher and Bourn to long-term deals, and still have a normal Draft in June. That situation played a role in the decision to sign Bourn in February. 印地安人去年的狀況比較特殊：被保護的第一輪選秀權和額外的補償選秀。因此，克里夫蘭能夠同時用長約簽下Nick Swisher和Michael Bourn，並在六月照常選秀。這使得球隊到二月時才決定簽下Bourn。 I wouldn't expect a repeat scenario this spring with any players that would cost the Tribe a Draft pick. I could see Cleveland remaining a player on some second-tier free agents to potentially strengthen the rotation or bullpen, especially if the price tags drop as Spring Training nears. The pitching staff remains the biggest area of focus for the club. 我不覺得今年春天會出現一樣的情形，尤其簽任何一個投手都會讓球隊損失選秀權時。我反而預期球隊會用一些二線FA來強化輪值或牛棚，特別在接近春訓時，球員價格都會下降。投手部分仍然是目前球團焦點所在。 If Cleveland addresses its lineup any further, I'd expect it to be via trade and not through free agency. Position players added as free agents at this point would likely consist of depth signings, which could mean some non-roster invites. Every team adds a handful of players via that route, and the Indians have had plenty of success doing so in recent years. 如果克里夫蘭想再加強打線的話，我猜應該是會用交易而不是由FA來。自由市場來的野手主要是由球隊深度決定，所以才簽了一些小聯盟春訓邀請約。用這種方式每一隊都可以加入一票選手，而這幾年來印地安人也不乏成功的例子。 If no teams make an offer to Ubaldo Jimenez and he goes unsigned into Spring Training, would the Indians be able to sign him for a cheaper price than the qualifying offer? -- Josiah A., Avon, Ohio 如果到春訓前Ubaldo Jimenez一直都沒簽約，印地安人有機會用比合格報價還便宜的價錢簽下他嗎？ -- Josiah A., Avon, Ohio That's the risk Jimenez took when he declined the Indians' one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer earlier this winter. Cleveland did so in order to secure Draft pick compensation in the event Jimenez signs with another team. To date, that hasn't happened, and the right-hander's asking price could fall as the season nears. If it gets to the point where a one- or two-year contract is possible, then the Indians might again be players to re-sign Big U. 這就是當Jimenez拒絕印地安人一年14.1M的合格報價時所冒的風險。克里夫蘭當時便是以此保證可能的補償選秀權。不過至今，這仍沒發生，但有關Jimenez 的詢價會隨球季到來而遞減。如果一到兩年約是可能的話，那印地安人很有機會簽回他。 What are the odds of the Indians putting up a bid for Masahiro Tanaka? -- Chris S., Westerville, Ohio 印地安人在田中競賽中，出高價的可能是多少？ -- Chris S., Westerville, Ohio While I haven't heard officially one way or the other, I don't see why the Indians wouldn't at least post the $20 million bid to secure a negotiation window with Tanaka. If Tanaka signs elsewhere, Cleveland isn't on the hook to pay that fee. Now, I'm not expecting the Indians to win the Tanaka sweepstakes, but posting a bid makes sense for the sake of due diligence. 儘管我還沒聽到官方或者哪邊來的說法，我想不到為什麼印地安人不出20M來試著競標。如果田中被其他隊簽走，克里夫蘭也不需要付這筆錢。目前我不覺得球隊會在田中競賽中脫穎而出，但先拿到入場權再仔細驗貨是很合理的事。 What accounts for the Indians' inability to sign their exiting free agents? Both Joe Smith and Matt Albers signed reasonable contracts. Why weren't the Indians competitive on them? -- Ryan M., Austin, Texas 可以解釋一下為什麼印地安人留不住那些離隊的自由球員嗎？ Smith和Albers都簽了合理價格的合約，為什麼球隊不試著談談看？ -- Ryan M., Austin, Texas There is no universal answer -- it varies for each player. In Smith's case, the Indians did not want to offer three years at the value he sought. For Albers, Cleveland leaned against a two-year deal, especially when some in-house options have the potential to offer similar production at a lower price. With every player, the Indians have a value in mind, and they typically try to stick to that in talks 這沒有一定的答案。以Smith來說，印地安人並不想要給他要的三年約。而Albers那邊，球隊不傾向兩年約，特別是在農場還有同性質卻更便宜的潛力新秀。印地安人都有評估過這幾個球員的價值，在談約中他們也都很堅持自己的要價。 With the Hall of Fame announcement coming this week, I was wondering who you would vote for this year. -- Kevin R., Cleveland 名人堂選舉這星期出爐，我蠻好奇你今年會投哪些人？ -- Kevin R., Cleveland I don't have a vote. If I did, here are the 10 players I'd select (in alphabetical order): Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell. I don't have the space here to go into each explanation, but what I will say is that I feel the Hall of Fame is a place to recognize history -- both the good and the bad. 我並沒有投票權呢。不過如果我有，我會選這十個：Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, Alan Trammell。這裡就不解釋我選他們的原因了。但我只能說我覺得名人堂是個紀念歷史的地方，不管是好的還是壞的。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.114.17.42