Down on the farm: Jason Kubel
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1842685
Monday, July 19, 2004
Jason Kubel
Minnesota Twins
Position: OF Height: 5-11 Weight: 193 Born: 5/25/82 Bats: Left Throws: Right
Year Team Lv G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2001 GCL Twins R 37 124 14 41 10 4 1 30 19 14 3 2 .331 .422 .500
2002 Quad City A 115 424 60 136 26 4 17 69 41 48 3 5 .321 .380 .521
2003 Fort Myers A 116 420 56 125 20 4 5 82 48 54 4 6 .298 .361 .400
2004 New Britain 2A 37 138 25 52 14 4 6 29 19 19 0 2 .377 .453 .667
Rochester 3A 50 200 39 67 20 0 3 29 14 18 10 2 .335 .373 .480
Background
Jason Kubel was drafted in the 12th round in 2000, out of high school in
Palmdale, Calif. Scouts liked his bat, but were uncertain about his defense,
didn't like his running speed, and are often suspicious about short
outfielders. He hit .282 in rookie ball after signing, but was your basic
anonymous low minor league outfielder. Kubel played rookie ball again in '01,
playing well, then emerged as a legitimate prospect with an excellent season in
'02, raking the full-season Midwest League for power and average. His '03
numbers fell off a bit, at least partially due to the pitching-friendly nature
of the Florida State League. In 2004, however, Kubel has been unstoppable,
destroying Double-A and continuing to hit after moving up to Triple-A in May.
He must now be considered one of the top hitting prospects in the game.
Scouting report
Kubel is a pure hitter, with a quick, sharp stroke from the left side of the
plate. He can pull the ball for power, but will also take the outside pitch to
the opposite field. He kills most fastballs, but reads breaking balls well, and
is difficult to fool. His balance at the plate is top-notch, and he shifts his
weight well. Although Kubel is not a walk machine, he has good plate
discipline, and seldom strikes out. He has no real weaknesses as a hitter. His
defense has been better than advertised. He doesn't have the range to play
center field, but can handle either outfield corner. His arm is also a plus
tool, enabling him to handle right field. Kubel's running speed is below
average, but he has decent instincts and can be rather aggressive, which is
something the Twins teach in their minor league system. He's swiped 10 bases
already in just 50 Triple-A games, matching his previous career total.
Performance
Entering 2004, Kubel had a career .310 batting average, and he's well on his
way to exceeding that. After knocking 17 homers for Quad City in 2002, he
dropped to just 5 in '03. But he's picked up the home run pace in '04, and
continues to hit lots of doubles. He should be good for 15-20 homers in the
Majors at maturity. Kubel's walk rates are not spectacular, but note the low
strikeout rate, an excellent sign. His 2004 Double-A/Triple-A stats
conservatively project him as a .280-.290 hitter at the Major League level
already. At age 22, he still has plenty of development time ahead of him. Given
a normal growth curve, he should be a consistent .300 hitter in the Show, with
solid power and on-base potential.
Health record
Kubel has had a few nagging injuries from time to time, but nothing serious.
What to expect
Kubel hasn't received much attention, at least in part because the Twins are
already loaded with talented young hitters. Nevertheless, he is one of the best
hitting prospects in the game today. He should be ready for the Show in 2005.
If the Twins can't find room for him, someone else will.
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