2010 Five questions: Chicago White Sox

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者KennyKuo (Gee Gee Gee)時間15年前 (2010/04/01 13:29)推噓9(9推 0噓 1→)

留言10則, 8人參與討論串1/1

== Five questions: Chicago White Sox == Year-in, year-out, the AL Central might be the hardest division in baseball to predict. The White Sox and Twins seemingly always do a bit better than the conventional wisdom expects. The Indians typically underachieve. The Tigers do well when I expect them to fall back, and vice-versa. Thank God for the Royals. At least they always suck. 這幾年下來，美聯中區大概是最難預測的一個分區。白襪和雙城總是能表現得比那些專家預測的更好一些；印地安人則是典型的差強人意。老虎的表現總是與我的預測相反: 當我認為他們表現會很差勁的時候，他們卻做得不錯--反之亦然--當我認為他們可以打得不錯時，他們卻打得很慘。感謝老天，還好美聯中區有皇家(會符合我的預測)，至少他們一直都很爛。 Anyhow, if it's normally a fool's errand to determine what will happen in the future, it's doubly foolish to figure out what will happen to a team like the Chicago White Sox. Fortunately for THT, I have enough fool in me for a room full of fools. 不管怎樣，如果「預測未來」這件事被視為是一件極度愚蠢的事--因為不可能會成功--那「預測白襪隊的表現」大概是兩倍等級的愚蠢。還好我夠幸運，在 THT(The Hardball Times)這裡，有一群跟我一樣的傻子願意做這樣的傻事，還有一脫拉庫願意聽我們練瘋話的人。 (這段最後一句不確定該怎麼翻...) The Sox are a team in transition. They suffered through a disappointing 2009 season, posting their second losing season of the century. They've lost two of their offensive cornerstones - DH Jim Thome and former World Series MVP Jermaine Dye in the off-season. After this year, contracts end for the only two position players left from the 2005 world champions: first baseman Paul Konerko and catcher AJ Pierzynski. 白襪隊正在經歷過渡期，他們剛熬過一個令人失望的2009球季，那是他們在本世紀第二失敗的球季。休賽期間，白襪的打線失去了兩塊重要基石--指定打擊 Jim Thome與前世界大賽最有價值球員Jermaine Dye。今年球季後，最後兩名僅存的2005冠軍成員(投手除外)--一壘手Paul Konerko和捕手AJ Pierzynski 的合約也即將到期。 That said, the White Sox aren't a team to lie fallow for a few years. GM Kenny Williams has shown a desire to balance winning now and winning down the road. It's a testament to his savvy that they've only had two losing seasons in his tenure despite lacking the resources of many other perennial winning franchises. So let's get to it the annual Five Questions. 這表示白襪隊在這幾年將不會是支安靜的球隊--球團動作可能很頻繁。白襪的總管Kenny Williams已經展現了他「不只現在要贏球，以後也要能贏」的渴望。在他的任內，白襪只有兩個球季勝率不足五成，這證明了他的確很清楚他在做什麼(而且做得不錯)，儘管白襪球團不像其他常勝軍球團擁有龐大的資源。好，現在讓我們來看看白襪的年度五大問答吧! -------------------------前言結束正文開始------------------------- 1. Do the White Sox have the best rotation in the league? 白襪的先發投手輪值是全聯盟最強的嗎?? Let's start with the positive parts of the White Sox: their starting rotation. Perennial ace Mark Buehrle returns to lead the Sox. He's as consistent as they come: with eight quality seasons in his nine campaigns in the starting rotation. Perhaps more impressively, he's only missed two starts in that time (both in September 2007). 我們先從白襪的強項--也就是他們的先發輪值--來談起吧! 勝投收集者‧王牌 Mark Buehrle重回白襪輪值的領導地位。比起輪值裡的其他投手，他的表現穩定多了。在他最近的九個球季，有八個球季的表現都相當夠水準。或許他更令人印象深刻的，是他在這幾年裡只錯過了兩場先發(兩場都在2007年九月)。 Joining him are kids John Danks and Gavin Floyd, both of whom experienced their second consecutive strong showing in 2009. Floyd's win-loss record was down last year - 11-11 after a 17-8 showing in 2008 - but his strikeout, walk, and home run rate all improved last year. His record obscures more than it reveals. (For that matter, the same might be said of his ERA. It got worse in 2009 because he allowed only six unearned runs, unlike the big 19 UER he had in 2008.) 緊接著加入由Buehrle領軍的輪值陣容的是兩個年輕的小夥子: John Danks與 Gavin Floyd。這兩個人都在2009年投出他們連續第二年的好表現。雖然Floyd 去年的勝負成績只有11勝11負，比起他2008年的17勝8負遜色不少，但他的奪三振、保送、和被全壘打率都進步了。他的勝負紀錄掩蓋了他的好表現。(此外，他的自責分率也是同樣的情況。表面上看來，他在2009年的成績似乎變差了，但那是因為他2009年的失分裡只有6分非自責分，不像他2008年的失分裡有高達19分都是非自責分。 That gives the Sox a great core, which the Sox round out from the injury-recovering Jake Peavy and Freddy Garcia. Peavy is a great talent -health permitting. Garcia has also been good each of the last two years, but he's only been able to muster 12 starts in that time. If everyone keeps their arms attached, the Sox will have a devastating rotation, but what are the odds of that? 這三個人加上傷癒的Jake Peavy和Freddy Garcia，建構了白襪強大的核心。 Peavy是天才等級的投手--當然啦~ 這必須以他能保持健康為前提。Garcia在過去這兩年也投得不差，只是他總共也才先發了12場。如果每個人都可以保持狀態，白襪將會擁有一個足以殺爆全聯盟的輪值。但是，全員保持健康的機率會有多少? Well, here's one little nugget I dug up: Since 2005 White Sox pitchers have had 16 different performances with at least 32 starts in the season. In that time, no other AL team has had more than 10 32-start achievements. That's rather impressive: the Sox are averaging more than three per year and no other squad is over two. 嘿~ 我發現了一件有趣的事，你們可能會想知道: 自2005年以來，白襪的投手達成了16次單季先發滿32場以上的紀錄。這段期間，美聯沒有任何一隊能夠達成(先發投手單季先發滿32場)這項紀錄超過10次。我換個方式講好了，或許會讓你更有感覺: 白襪先發輪值的五名投手，平均每年會有三位以上的投手可以先發超過32場; 其他球隊裡，沒有任何一隊的輪值裡能超過兩名投手單季先發超過32場。 That tells us a few things. Most notably the Sox acquire good starting pitchers. It also tells us that the Sox do a good job taking care of their starters. The team doesn't have a magic wand and "POOF" - everyone suddenly gives them 32 solid starts. Just last year Bartolo Colon flopped for them. That said, a pitcher has as good a chance to stay healthy here as anywhere. I'd expect one of the two injury-recoverees to be healthy. If it's Peavy, they'll easily have the best rotation in the league. 這告訴我們一些事，其中最明顯的就是--白襪總是能找到好的先發投手。這也告訴我們白襪球團很懂得怎樣照顧他們的先發投手。白襪隊並沒有魔杖，可以「蹦」的一聲就變出32場夠水準的先發。白襪沒有照顧好的，大概只有去年的 Bartolo Colon吧! 也就是說，如果你是一名投手，你在白襪隊能保持健康的機率，大於其他任何一隊。我猜Garcia跟Peavy兩個人之中至少會有一個人能保持健康。如果這個人是Peavy，那白襪輕易地就能擁有全聯盟最強的輪值。 2. Why would they sign Andruw Jones? 他們為什麼要簽下Andruw Jones? It's a damn good thing the Sox might have such a wonderful rotation, because their offense inspires no such feelings of joy. They suffered through a losing campaign in 2009 because of their offense, which ranked 12th in runs scored despite playing in a hitter's haven. 「白襪可能擁有全聯盟最強的輪值」這件事真是他媽的太好了! 因為他們的攻擊實在是很難讓人感到開心。他們去年輸慘慘就是因為他們的進攻火力弱，即使在一個打者天堂般的主場，他們的總得分在聯盟也只不過排在第12名。 They've jettisoned several of their starting position players from last year, which makes sense under the circumstances. However, the most notable of the departed - Dye and Thome - were among two of four White Sox players to break 100 OPS+ last year. The departure of Thome is an especially big blow to their offense, as he was their OPS king last year. 去年他們丟掉了一些打者，就整體經營情況看來似乎是合理的動作。然而，這些球員的離隊還是造成球隊進攻火力上極大的影響，特別是Thome跟Dye。白襪去年只有4名球員的OPS+超過100，其中兩名就是Thome跟Dye，而這兩人之中又以Thome的離隊對於球隊攻擊火力影響特別嚴重，因為他是去年球隊的OPS+之王。 Which brings us to the topic at hand. Of all the signings by the Chi Sox this off-season, perhaps the biggest (both in terms of name wattage and personal tonnage) was one-time wunderkid Andruw Jones. He'll step into Thome's vacated DH slot. This strikes me as an interesting gamble for the Sox to take. I don't really like the odds of it, but Jones is an interesting guy to take a flyer on. 於是，這些離隊的球員與新加入的球員給了我們另一個值得討論的主題。在這麼多位(在休賽期間)新簽下的球員中，最重量級(不論是名氣還是體重)的或許就是曾被視為是強打少年的Andruw Jones。他將填補Thome離開所空下來的DH位置。我認為簽下Andruw Jones讓是白襪一筆很有趣的賭注。我其實並不看好白襪會賭贏，但他就是這麼一個有意思的傢伙，會讓球隊想去賭一把。 First the bad news: Jones has been terrible for a while now. Last year he hit .214 in limited playing time with the Rangers - and that was his most successful season since 2006. Last year, he had enough power to qualify as an offensive mediocrity, whereas he was one of the worst hitters in all baseball in 2008, and merely typically terrible in 2007. He's 33 this year, and as a general rule of thumb, a guy at that age who's been wretched two of the last three years isn't the guy you want on your team. 首先，我要告訴各位一個壞消息: Jones已經爛了好幾年了。他去年在有限的上場時間裡，在遊騎兵打出.214的打擊率--而這已經是他在2006年以來打得最好的一年了。去年，他展現了足夠的長打火力，但也僅能讓他成為一個剛好及格的打者罷了。而大家可別忘了他在2008年是全聯盟最爛的打者之一，在2007年也好不到哪裡去。他今年已經33歲了，依照常理來說，一個這樣年紀的球員，過去幾年又都打得很慘，你不會希望招攬他加入你的球隊的。 Aye, but there's a little more to Andruw Jones. He doesn't lack the talent: He's just blown his talent. He was good enough to crack an MLB starting lineup at age 20. By age 23, he was a Gold Glove-winning centerfielder All-Star who hit over .300 with 36 homers. He should've had 15 more good seasons in front of him, health permitting. 是的，但Jones有的不只這些。他從來不缺天份，只不過他浪費了這些天份。他在20歲的時候就足以佔據大聯盟球隊先發打線的其中一個位置，23歲已經是金手套中外野手，還入選全明星賽，單季打出三成打擊率和36發全壘打。如果他保持健康，應該已經有過15個以上的美好球季。 But he didn't take care of himself off the field, and quickly became a one-dimensional dinger-machine on the field. The gamble for the White Sox is simple: Can he reconnect with some of his once formidable talent to become a quality player? He'll never be what he promised to be, but he can hopefully do well enough to replace an aging Thome. If nothing else, Jones is coming to a park that's nice for home run hitters. 但他在場外並沒有好好照顧自己，而且很快地變成一名在球場上除了打全壘打以外什麼都不會的單功能幹砲機器。白襪的賭注很簡單: 他能找回那些曾經優異的天份而成為一位合格球員嗎? 他已經不可能成為那種他曾經有機會成為的偉大球員了，但他仍希望能表現得夠好，足以取代Jime Thome。除去其他的不講，Jones的確來到了一個對於幹砲型球員很nice的球場。 I don't like Jones' odds. He fell too far for me to think he'll be worth a fart. Last year's middling performance might be the ceiling for him. If he does flail, the Sox are in trouble. Who DH's then? I suppose they could put Konerko or Carlos Quentin there, but that just shifts a hole. The main veteran bat on the bench is Mark Kotsay, who's hit .270 with minimal power during the last five years. They could put their highly touted young catcher Tyler Flowers in the DH, but even if he's as good as expected, he'll have to get up to speed first. 我並不看好Jones能有多大的反彈，他已經爛到谷底了，對我來說他的價值跟個屁一樣。他去年那種中等等級的表現大概就是他現在的極限了。如果他繼續爛下去，那白襪就有大麻煩了: 到時誰來打DH? 假設他們到時候讓Konerko或Quentin來打DH，那也只不過是挖洞補洞而已。板凳上最有經驗的打者是Mark Kotsay，他過去五年的打擊率是.270，只有小小的長打能力。白襪也可以把他們備受看好的年輕捕手Tyler Flowers擺到DH，但就算他能符合期望地打得很好，他最終也得移往一壘。 3. Who's in the outfield? 外野手是哪些人? The team has completely redecorated its starting outfield, and like the DH, question marks exist at every position. In left, they have a man who has never played for the team. In center, a man who wasn't in Chicago last Opening Day. Their right fielder has been with the club for a couple of years, but has never played an inning in right for them. 球隊徹底地把外野陣容重新打造了一番，DH也是。於是大家對這些位置都有疑問。在左外野，他們找來了一位從為在白襪打過球的傢伙，中外野這傢伙去年開季時還在別隊，右外野手雖然在白襪打了好幾年，但他從來沒有在這支球隊守過右外野。 The left fielder is Juan Pierre, who the Sox got at a discount from the Dodgers, who were willing to eat part of the salary in order to dump the rest of it. Pierre replaces Scott Podsednik, which is appropriate because they are such similar players. Both are power-free, singles hitters who can steal bases. Also, both performed especially well last year. Pierre should be a step down. It's not a matter of talent, just that Pierre's unlikely to have a second straight Indian Summer season. 左外野手Juan Pierre是白襪從躲人那裡用打折價買來的，躲人為了擺脫他剩下的合約，寧可吃下部分薪水也要把他送走。Pierre取代的是Podsednik，喔真是再適合不過了，因為他們兩個根本是一樣的球員--都是零砲瓦、沒有長打、有盜壘能力的腿哥。而且，兩個人去年都表現得特別好。今年Pierre 的成績應該會下修，這跟天份無關，純粹是他大概沒辦法連續第二年都打出像去年那樣迴光返照一般(不尋常)的火熱球季。 In center, is Alex Rios. If Pierre was in the clouds last year, then Rios was in the sewers. He was a consistent performer in Toronto from 2006-08, hitting around .300 with tweener power. Last year, Toronto jettisoned him (and his sizable salary) after a slow start, and his performance in Chicago was pitiful. In 41 games, he batted .199/.229/.301. That's beyond dreadful. The Sox need him to step it up, obviously. He ought to - just given how low he hit it's almost impossible he'd stay down that low. The real question of how high will he bounce back up. Right now it's a guessing game. I don't think he'll ever receive another All-Star selection, but he should be serviceable. 站在中外野的是Alex Rios。如果Pierre去年的表現像是漫步在雲端，那Rios 去年的表現大概就像是在下水道的汙水裡游泳。2006到2008年，Rios在藍鳥一直都是個表現穩定的打者，有著大約三成的打擊率，還有中上等級的砲瓦。 Rios去年開季的低潮讓藍鳥決定擺脫他(還有他龐大的合約)，他來到芝加哥後的表現卻更可悲: 41場比賽，打擊三圍.199/.229/.301，我想慘不忍睹還不足以形容他的慘況。很明顯的，白襪隊需要他重新站起來，而他也應該做到--畢竟要他再打得像去年那麼爛也是很不容易的。真正問題在於: 他能觸底反彈多少? 目前為止還沒人能知道，大家都只能猜。我不認為他能再次打出全明星身手，但他應該能對球隊有所貢獻。 Last and most importantly, the Sox need Carlos Quentin to return to his offensive 2008 form while adjusting to right field at The Cell. After a breakthrough 2008 season which saw him finish fifth in MVP voting, he suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 as foot problems sapped his ability to produce at the plate. He's the best bet for a considerable offensive improvement on the team. Not only should he be healed, but he's just now entering his prime, as this will be his age-27 season. The Sox need Quentin to produce. With Dye and Thome gone, Konerko and Pierzynski likely to decline, and varying degrees of uncertainty in the rest of the outfield, another disappointing campaign from Quentin could leave the entire offense in such dire straits that even their vaunted rotation can't save them. 最後也是最重要的: 白襪需要Quentin在移防右外野後能找回他在2008年的攻擊形態。在大爆發的2008球季--MVP票選第五名--之後，持續的腳傷減低了他在本壘板的貢獻能力，也使得他在2009球季的表現大幅下滑。如果你想賭一名球員能在今年大幅提昇白襪的進攻火力，那Quentin絕對是你的最佳選擇。因為除了他的傷勢痊癒以外，他正步入球員生涯的巔峰期--他的27歲球季。白襪需要Quentin的貢獻。在Dye和Thome離隊，Konerko和Pierzynski的表現可能會下滑，還有存在於外野諸多的不確定因素之下，要是Quentin再一次打出像去年那種令人失望的成績，那白襪的進攻將會陷入永不翻身的窘境，再強大的先發輪值也救不了他們。 4. What does the future hold for Gordon Beckham? 怎樣的未來在等著Gordan Beckham? Good things - and lots of them. His performance with the Sox last year showed that the team was right to draft him with their No. 1 pick in 2008, and then move him out of the minors after only 59 games. The kid looks like the real deal and should have a terrific future in front of him. That's in the long run, in the short term, there might be a bump in the road. Even really talented players rarely have a perfectly smooth path toward the All-Star Game. Besides, Beckham will be learning his third position in as many years in 2010. The Sox drafted him as a shortstop, shifted him to third last year and now will move him to second, in order to make room for the newly acquired Mark Teahan. That might cause a little trouble in 2010, but it's nothing Beckham can't get over. 好消息! 很多好消息! 他去年的表現證明了白襪當初的決定是對的--包括用 2008年第一個選秀權選了他，還有僅讓他在小聯盟打了59場比賽就把他升到大聯盟。這孩子是個真貨，他有美好的未來等著他。但他要走的路還很長，短期之內他可能會遇到些挫折。畢竟就算是極具天賦的球員，在通往全明星賽的道路上也不見得一路順遂。更何況Beckham還正在2010年還得學習他這幾年來的第三個守備位置。白襪當初選進他的時候，他是一名游擊手，去年他被移往三壘，今年為了讓位置給新入團的Teahan，他又被移去守二壘。這在2010年可能會造成Beckham一些麻煩，但這對他來說並不是什麼不能搞定的事。 For a clearer picture what's in store for him, I did a little digging for comps. Last year, the 22-year-old Beckham posted a 107 OPS+. So, I went to Baseball-Reference.com's excellent Play Index and did a search for seasons by: 1) 22-year-olds since 1900, who 2) played an infield defensive position (short, third, or second), 3) posted an OPS+ between 97 and 117, and 4) either qualified for a batting title or had 400 PA. Fifty-three names popped up. Two were in 2009 (Beckham himself and Everth Cabrera) - leaving the remaining 51 to serve as forecasting tools for Beckham. (I know B-ref has easily available sim scores, but I don't really trust them because of the differences of era and park. Besides, I think it matters to account for defensive position.) I then dug into their careers to get an idea what the short- and long-term future could be for him (they're all listed in references and resources at the end of this column if your curious). 為了要更清楚地預測他的球員生涯全貌，我找了一些資料來做比較。去年， 22歲的Beckham打出了107OPS+的成績。所以，我上Baseball-Reference網站使用了它的Play Index功能，找出1900年來符合下列(單季表現)條件的球員: (1) 22歲。 (2) 防守2B/SS/3B。 (3) OPS+在97到117之間。 (4) 有足夠的打席可以在打擊排行榜列名或是打超過400打席。結果出來了，有53個名字符合這些條件，其中兩個是在2009球季，一個正是 Beckham，另一個是Everth Cabrera。我把這兩筆資料拿掉，留下51筆做為預測Beckham生涯成績的工具。(我知道B-ref網站可以模擬出生涯成績，但我不相信它的預測結果，它沒有考量不同世代與球場的因素，而且我認為守備位置也應該要列入考慮。)然後，我開始研究這51名球員的生涯成績，以預測Beckham的短期與長期成績。(想看51人完整名單的請按End。) Let's look at the long-term results first. These look fantastic for Beckham. Of the 51 players, eight are currently in Cooperstown: Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker, Joe Cronin, Bobby Doerr, Robin Yount, Lou Boudreau, Tony Lazzeri, and Billy Herman. Several others could, will, or ought to be enshrined, ranging from Pete Rose to Roberto Alomar to Derek Jeter. There's scarcely a bum on the list. Of the 41 retired players, only three played fewer than 1,000 games in their career: Sean Burroughs (he hasn't played in four years? I feel old), Johnny Hodapp, and Erve Beck. Meanwhile, 30 played at least 1,500 games, 11 of whom played in more than 2,000. They averaged 1,751 games played. Games played are a rough tool, but they indicate clearly how long someone remains effective. 我們先來看看長期的結果吧! 這結果看起來真是太夢幻了! 51位球員中，有 8位球員已經進入名人堂，分別是: Joe Sewell、Joe Tinker... (詳見原文) 名單上還有一些人雖然還沒進名人堂，但未來八成會進的，像: Pete Rose、 Roberto Alomar還有Derek Jeter。這份名單上幾乎找不到弱咖，在41位已退休球員裡，只有3名球員生涯出賽低於1000場(Sean Burroughs、Johnny Hodapp和Erve Beck)，30位球員生涯出賽超過1500場，其中有11位球員出賽超過2000場(平均1751場)。光看生涯出賽數雖然是很粗糙的分析，但出賽數卻是一項評斷該球員是否保持競爭力的指標。 That's nice, but what matters for the Sox in 2010 is the short term, and here the results are a bit less rosy. Even though these guys were great at age 22 and had long, productive careers, they mostly took a step back at age 23. That isn't too surprising, but worth noting. By Batting Wins (which has the added bonus over OPS+ of also accounting for playing time), only 20 of the 51 got better. In all, they went from 266.5 collective batting wins to 202.3. Oh, added bonus: of Beckham's 51 comps, only four peaked at age 22, according to Batting Wins. 喔這真是太美好了! 但對於2010白襪隊來說，重要的是Beckham的短期表現，而我的分析結果就沒有像長期這麼樂觀囉! 即使這51名球員在22歲時的表現相當優異而且有著很棒的生涯，他們大部分的人在23歲都有些退步。這結果並不讓人意外，但卻值得一提。51名球員裡，Batting Wins(詳見註1.)進步的人只有20位，全部的人Batting Wins總和也從266.5退步到202.3。喔對了，講點開心的: 在這51名球員裡，只有4名球員(以Batting Wins來看)的巔峰在22歲。註1. http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Leaders/glossary.htm I expect Beckham to have a terrific career, but 2010 might be one step back before two steps forward. This is another reason why I think Quentin is so key for the Sox this year. They had seven regulars post an OPS+ of 90 or higher on last year's lousy offensive squad. Three are gone. Two are both on the wrong side of 30 and coming off years when they improved their hitting (which is to say especially unlikely to keep up last year's production). Beckham, the sixth, may endure growing pains. I don't trust Andruw Jones, leaving Quentin as their big force. 我期待Beckham有一個美好的生涯，但2010年的他可能會有小小的退步。這也是為什麼我認為Quentin的狀況將決定白襪今年的命運的原因。在去年那個慘淡的打線裡，他們還有七名固定先發球員的OPS+在90以上，不過今年走了三個(Dye/Thome/Podsednik)，還有兩個已經30好幾歲了(AJP/Konerko)，他們早已遠離那個打擊年年進步的年紀(要重現去年的績效大概很難)。至於打第六棒的Beckham則可能遇到成長必經的苦難。我不相信Andruw Jones， Quentin才是白襪最大支的棒子。 5. Can the Sox win the division in 2010? 白襪可以在分區稱雄嗎? So far, I've presented a mixed approach. I like their starting pitching, but am skeptical of their offense. The White Sox have one special advantage, though: They play in the AL Central. The Royals have been so bad for so long they can be discounted on general principles. Last year the Indians went through their biggest give-away of possessions Ohio had seen since the Treaty of Greenville. The Twins just lost Joe Nathan. The Tigers are hardly a sure thing. 目前為止，我已經針對各個面向都做了分析。我喜歡他們的先發投手，對於他們的進攻打線則充滿懷疑。但白襪有一項最特別的優勢: 他們在美聯中區。皇家一直都很爛所以不用考慮他們。去年印地安人進行了繼Greenville協議 (詳見註2.)以來Ohio最大的清倉大拍賣，而雙城剛剛失去Joe Nathan，老虎則是一切都還不確定。註2. http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Treaty+of+Greenville I can see arguments for the Sox, Tigers, or Twins taking it. Then again, I can also see arguments for all five teams finishing with a losing record. I expect one team will pull off a quality season, though. For the White Sox, I think it's simple: If Peavy and Quentin both produce, Chicago will win the division easily. If neither does, the team is screwed. If one does, it'll be a fight for the flag. 我可以預見白襪、老虎和雙城爭奪分區冠軍。同樣的，我也可以預見這五支美聯中區的球隊都以勝率低於五成作收。不過，我認為大概會有一隊能有個不錯的球季。對於白襪呢... 很簡單，只要Peavy跟Quentin都能發揮，贏得分區冠軍只是信手拈來的事。如果兩個人都失常，那這支球隊就毀了。如果只有一個人有發揮，那他們大概要很拼。 -- The 51 comps for Beckham: (ordered from highest to lowest OPS+ at age 22) Hank Blalock, Eric Chavez, Hanley Ramirez, Joe Sewell, Chris Speier, Bobby Doerr, Harlond Clift, Alan Trammell, Lou Boudreau, Gregg Jeffries, Ron Hansen, Robin Yount, Dan Driessen, Ron Hunt, Red Smith, Troy Tulowitzki, Carney Lansford, Tony Lazzeri, Donie Bush, Joe Tinker, Lou Whitaker, Marty McManus, - (the next three guys had an OPS+ of exactly 107, just like Beckham) - Ryan Zimmerman, Eddie Yost, Joe Cronin, Robinson Cano, Sean Burroughs, Carlos Baerga, Travis Fryman, Billy Herman, Milt Stock, Tony Cuccinello, Bill Bradley, Johnny Hodapp, Dick Bartell, Aurelio Rodriquez, Erve Beck, Omar Infante, Derek Jeter, Willie Randolph, Pete Rose, Harvey Kuenn, Cecil Travis, Dick McAuliffe, Troy Glaus, Roberto Alomar, Bill Coughlin, Rafael Furcal, Steve Sax, Buddy Meyer, and Bill Sweeney. 現役三大游擊手都被拿來類比耶... Beckham要成為下一個Future HOFer了嗎? -- 終於翻完了 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 163.29.130.56