Five questions: San Francisco Giants

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者mittermeyer (真的真的好想休息)時間15年前 (2010/04/03 02:32)推噓9(9推 0噓 5→)

留言14則, 8人參與討論串1/1

標題: 時間: Sat Apr 3 02:32:13 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-francisco-giants5/ http://ppt.cc/xafO Five questions: San Francisco Giants by Steve Treder March 25, 2010 Ah, yes! It's that time of year again, when we dust off our (oh so murky) crystal ball and do our best at sizing up just what might be in store for Los Gigantes de San Francisco. 是的，又到了一年一度的這個時候，該是我們把(髒到爆的)水晶球擦亮，用力預測巨人隊今年成績的時刻。 Last year's ball club turned out to be among the most positive surprises in either league; they most definitely far surpassed the expectations of yours truly, coming in at 88-74, good for third place in the dramatically improved NL West. Whether they can build upon that improvement (or even sustain that level of performance) in 2010 is, of course, a function of how various looming questions may be answered. Let's consider the most pressing five. 去年本隊成為兩聯盟中的最大驚奇，他們打破大多數人的預測，繳出88勝74敗，在水準顯著提升的國聯西區排名第三的好成績。他們在2010年是否能更上層樓(或者只是維持水準) 當然是影響著浮現的問題，答案變化程度的一個因素。在此提出最關鍵的五個問題。 1. How will the Dubious Duo do at the keystone? 中間內野手最少會有啥表現？ A double play combo consisting of Edgar Renteria at shortstop and Freddy Sanchez at second base could very well be considered among the finest in the game—it could be, that is, if it's still, say, 2006. Unfortunately I believe we've made it all the way to 2010, and thus this particular keystone pairing is, well, uncertain, in a Brian Sabean Special sort of way. 今年的雙殺二人組是由游擊手Edgar Renteria以及二壘手Freddy Sanchez組成，他們會是頂尖─如果你是說2006年的話。很可惜的現在2010年球季要開打了，而他們兩個的表現在 Brian Sabean流的補強下，變得難以預測。 In terms of raw age, neither of these guys is ancient, although Renteria at 33 and Sanchez at 32 are both well beyond the normal prime years for middle infielders. The larger issue is that neither was healthy last year: Renteria was dogged by a sore elbow, and neither hit nor fielded well, while Sanchez spent the second half of '09 hobbling on a bad knee. Both underwent surgery in the offseason; Sanchez in fact went under the knife twice, dealing with the knee and a shoulder problem as a bonus. 單就年紀來講，他們不是老人，雖然33歲的Renteria與32歲的Sanchez過了人們眼中中間內野手的巔峰期。不過更大的問題是他們在去年不算健康：Renteria被手肘酸痛搞得打擊守備都爛了，Sanchez下半季因膝蓋傷勢有一場沒一場的打。兩人在季後都動了手術， Sanchez還加碼搞定了肩傷。 Sanchez hasn't played an inning of spring training and won't be available until mid-April at the earliest. Renteria has been playing this spring, but he has a lot of improving to do on his 2009 production to even be considered average. All in all, things will have to turn out as well as they possibly can for the Giants to avoid problems at one or both of the crucial middle infield positions in 2010. Sanchez春訓沒有上場，且最少到四月中才能上。Renteria春訓有上，但從2009年來看他離至少被視為平均還有很大的進步空間。總的來說，他們兩個得盡可能改變，避免今年巨人在其一甚至兩個位置上受到困擾。 2. What's the story in right field? 右外野又如何？ The archetypal right fielder is a big guy: Whether or not he possesses the position's ideal of a cannon arm, he's almost always a power hitter. Very often the right fielder is among his team's top run producers, a core-of-the-order slugger. 典型的右外野手是球隊的要角，不論如何理想上他得是的強肩犯，也幾乎要是豪打者。右外野手常是球隊的得分重心，是中心棒次的打者。 But not for the Giants of the current era. This franchise hasn't had a right fielder who hit as many as 20 home runs in a season since, get this, 2003, and only one since then (Moises Alou in 2006) has delivered as many as 15. The 2009 Giants presented yet another distinctly inoffensive alignment in right field: Randy Winn and Nate Schierholtz combined for 151 starts at the position, while delivering a total of seven homers and 50 RBIs. 但不光是現在，整個巨人在2003年前沒有打過20支全壘打的右外野手，在那之後也只有一次(2006年的Moises Alou)曾經打到15支。2009年當然又是這樣的組合：Randy Winn與Nate Schierholtz共先發了151場比賽，總共打出7支全壘打與50分打點。 Sabean's action in addressing this issue for 2010 consisted of letting Winn go, and, well, nothing else. So the 26-year-old Schierholtz is back; despite modest major league production so far, the position is his to lose. Schierholtz brings some impressive tools to the challenge: He does have the requisite howitzer, and he's a big fellow who runs reasonably well (though he hasn't shown particular defensive aptitude). He has a track record of consistent high-average, moderate-power hitting at every level of the minors, and the kind of doubles power Schierholtz demonstrated as a youngster often develops into home run power later. Sabean今年對此的解決之道為，放走Randy Winn，然後，下面沒有了。所以26歲的 Schierholtz取得了位置，雖然到目前為止打得零零落落，他還是穩居先發。Schierholtz 有不錯的技能挑戰這個位置，他算是小砲，也是一個靈活的大個子(雖然他還沒展現特殊的防守天份)。過往成績顯示他在小聯盟的每一層級能夠維持高打率，以及還可以的長打力，而這種擅長打深遠二壘打的年輕人，往往能夠發展成擁有打全壘打的長打力。 Balanced against those positives is an amazing absence of strike zone discipline (more than once in 2009 Schierholtz swung through a pitch that plunked him in the back leg). One suspects that unless meaningful progress is made on the plate discipline, the power won't materialize, and while 26 isn't too old for it to begin to happen, it's getting darn close. 有好就有壞，與上述眾多優點相對的，是缺乏好球帶判斷的顯著缺點(2009年Schierholtz 不只一次對飛往他後腳的球揮棒)。一個假設是除非他在好球判斷能大幅長進，長打能力是長不出來的，這件事以26歲來說雖然不算老，但也差不多了。 The only real competitors for the job currently on the Giants' roster (a late-spring pickup of someone like Jermaine Dye isn't out of the question) are John Bowker, another 26-year-old left-handed hitter with impressive minor league credentials but not much in the majors, 29-year-old Fred Lewis, whose all-around mediocrity lost him the starting left field job in 2009, and speedy 28-year-old jack-of-all-trades Eugenio Velez—and if Velez ends up spending a lot of time in right field, then the Giants will be pulling off their most ardent head-scratcher yet. 現在巨人陣中的真正競爭者(在春訓結束前找來某個像Jermaine Dye的傢伙也是解決之道) 計有John Browker，另一位也是小時了了的26歲左打者，因為什麼都很鳥而在09年失去先發工作的29歲左外野手Fred Lewis，還有速度型、28歲且沒沒無聞的Eugenio Velez─而如果Velez大部分時間站右外野，巨人可能會更加的頭痛。 3. How will the young southpaw starters fare? 年輕的左腕呢？ The Giants' starting rotation for much of 2010 will likely contain two young left-handers who represent the opposite ends of the spectrum of great potential: Jonathan Sanchez (who, to be sure, at 27 isn't all that young anymore), who's teased the Giants for several years with dazzling stuff and erratic results, and Madison Bumgarner, who's just 20, but who's torched the minor leagues so thoroughly that he appears nearly ready for the majors. (Just this week, the Giants optioned Bumgarner to Triple-A, but he will almost certainly be back soon.) 巨人2010年的先發輪值大概會有兩位年輕左投，他們潛力光譜上代表兩種極端。Jonathan Sanchez(他已經27歲不算年輕了)，以不穩定的投球內容以及大起大落的成績玩弄巨人球團於手掌心，以及才20歲的Madison Bumgarner，已經徹底殺爆小聯盟，似乎已經準備贏項挑戰。(就在這周，巨人把Bumgarner送到3A，但他應該很快就會回到大聯盟。) The ceiling for each (particularly Bumgarner) is sky-high. But, alas, neither has any record of consistent major league success, and if there is any creature on the planet less dependable than a young pitcher, it's a young pitcher with brilliant potential. 他們的極限都很高，但是，唉，沒有一個人能維持他們在大聯盟的榮景，而如果有比年輕投手更不可靠的生物，那就是高天賦的年輕投手。 Either or both could get hurt or otherwise implode. Sanchez could join the legion of great-stuff throwers who never put it together, and Bumgarner could join the legion of what-might-have-beens. But still, there is a real possibility of true brilliance from both. Where these two land upon the spectrum from nothing to all may well make the difference in how the Giants do in 2010, and quite a ways beyond. 他們可能會因受傷或其他因素毀掉。Sanchez可能會變成一大票能夠丟出好球種，卻從來沒投出成績的投手們的其中一員，Bumgarner則可能成為「想當年他...」的投手。但，他們也有很大的機會變得很好。他們會落在從壞掉到完全體構成的光譜上的哪一點，將對2010 年，甚至之後的巨人產生影響。 4. Will the run production be any less meager? 得分還會更低嗎？ The Giants won 88 games in 2009 despite featuring the worst offense in the league. (Those who might interpret the team's low-scoring tendency as an artifact of its home ballpark are looking at some very out-of-date data; AT&T Park hasn't played as a friendly environment for pitchers in many years.) While a win is a win and a loss is a loss, regardless of how it's created, sustaining a successful ball club without even as much as a league-average performance in one half of the inning or the other is a most difficult act. Balance imparts flexibility, while all the eggs in one basket imparts vulnerability. 巨人在09年攻擊雖然破爛，還是贏了88場。(把低得分趨勢歸咎於球場的人資訊已經過時了 AT&T球場已經不是投手球場很久了。)雖然贏就是贏輸就是輸，可以不管是怎麼來的，但要以其中半局連聯盟平均都不到的表現，維持球隊的勝場，是最為困難的事。攻守均衡可使球隊較為靈活，把雞蛋放在同一個籃子則會導致翻船。 San Francisco's offense in 2009 presented one extraordinarily good hitter (the phenomenal 22-year-old Pablo Sandoval) and, effectively, nothing else. The remedy Sabean has endeavored to provide for 2010 consists of acquiring so-so 33-year-old veteran Aubrey Huff as the new first baseman and so-so 35-year-old veteran Mark DeRosa as the new left fielder. While it's a measure of the remarkable offensive weakness of those positions on the '09 Giants that Huff and DeRosa will likely bring upgrades in run production, neither is truly a good hitter by the standards of first basemen and left fielders, and moreover their age suggests meaningful injury risk. 巨人09年的攻擊顯現的是一個超好的打者(22歲超乎常人的Pablo Sandoval)，還有，簡單來說，又沒了。Sabean為今年球季努力找來的補強有，打得普普的33歲老將Aubrey Huff擔任一壘手，以及打得普普的35歲老將Mark DeRosa擔任左外野手。這些位置是09年巨人攻擊主要的弱點，Huff與DeRosa的加盟理應為得分帶來助益，但他們在那些位置上都不算真的打得很好，還有他們的年齡也代表顯著的受傷風險。 Sabean's other major move was to re-sign 35-year-old veteran catcher Bengie Molina. While Molina is a decent hitter for a catcher, he isn't a good one, and moreover his presence serves to block 23-year-old rookie Buster Posey— universally regarded as the best-hitting catching prospect in the game today, almost certainly a better hitter than Molina right now. Only the Giants, it seems, would find a way to do something like this. Sabean另外一個主要的補強是與35歲的老捕手Begie Molina續約。Molina以捕手來說攻擊不錯，但還不算好，而且留下他也擋住23歲的新秀Buster Posey─宇宙公認現今最好的攻擊捕手，幾乎現在就肯定比Molina還要好。好像只有巨人隊，才會想到這麼做。 What it means is that while the Giants' offense won't likely be any worse than it was in 2009 (one might well ask, "How could it?"), the probability of it being much better isn't high. Which means the team's pitching staff will once more shoulder an exceptionally heavy burden. Which leads to the final question ... 現階段這代表巨人的攻擊不會像09年那麼糟(當然有人會問，「怎麼說？」)，但要大幅進步的可能性不高。這也代表投手們又要肩負重責，也迎來了下個問題... 5. How long can the young aces remain injury-free? 健康的年輕王牌榮景還能維持多久？ Let's face it: Injuries are a part of every sport, baseball certainly included. It's just the nature of athletic competition; as the body is pushed to the breaking point, well, sometimes it's going to break. Any team in any sport that makes plans based on an assumption of zero injuries is a team doomed to disappointment. 面對吧：受傷是各種運動的一部分，棒球當然不例外。這也是運動員競爭的一部分，當身體邁向臨界點時，有時就是會爆。每項運動的每支球隊以「零受傷」為前提擬定計畫時，注定會邁向失敗。 Thus the 2010 Giants seem particularly precariously poised. The team in the field is hugely dependent upon 30-somethings, a most injury-vulnerable demographic, and the ball club's strength is heavily focused upon two great young starting pitchers: 26-year-old Tim Lincecum and 25-year-old Matt Cain. 而2010年的巨人隊尤其岌岌可危。這支球隊的野手大量仰賴30多歲，處在易受傷之齡的球員，戰力重心幾乎放在兩位年輕強投─26歲的Tim Lincecum以及25歲的Matt Cain身上。 Both of these exceptional young right-handers have made their mark not only on the basis of their effectiveness (wonderful as that has been, obviously and especially in Lincecum's case), but also on the basis of their stalwart durability: Neither ever misses a dang start. Lincecum may be a hippie gymnast-flexible prodigy, and Cain a strong-as-an-ox old-schooler, but the bottom line is that both have simply never gotten hurt. Ever. At all. Period. Not once. Never. Ever. 兩位深受期待的年輕右投都已經打出成績，不只是他們的投球效率(可說是無懈可擊，以 Lincecum來說尤其明顯)，還有他們的耐操程度：兩位都沒有錯過任何先發。Lincecum也許是怪姿勢的天才，Cain則是典型的「耐操好檔」，但回歸基本來說他們都沒受過傷。從來沒有，就這樣。不是只有一次，而是從不。(按：作者在下面的評論回答球迷，他是有點過度神話Lincecum，因為去年季末Lincecum下背部受傷錯過一場先發，但他還是十分耐操) We Giants fans fervently hope that this will always be the case. But we'd be fools (and yes, I know, we're Giants fans so that may already be settled) if we expected this to always be the case. At what point either or both of these remarkable workhorses demonstrate normal susceptibility to injury is the point at which the Giants are likely to struggle. 巨人球迷熱烈希望這會持續下去，但如果我們一直這樣期望就是笨蛋(是的，因為我是巨人迷，所以可能已經被公認了)。不論何時，要假設這兩位或其中一位優質工作馬會受傷，對巨人球團來說是很困難的。 Steve Treder can often be found spending way too much time talking baseball at Baseball Primer. He welcomes your questions and comments via e-mail. Steve Treder是Baseball Primer的作家。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.37.91.241 ※ 編輯: mittermeyer 來自: 114.37.91.241 (04/03 04:21)