[外電] Five questions: Atlanta Braves

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)時間15年前 (2010/04/03 12:03)推噓9(9推 0噓 4→)

留言13則, 12人參與討論串1/1

Five questions: Atlanta Braves by John Beamer and Alex Remington April 02, 2010 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-atlanta-braves5/ or http://tinyurl.com/y9aq34z After 14 years of winning their division (and yes, that excludes the strike-shortened 1994 season when the Expos were top of the standings) the Atlanta Braves haven't come close to playing October ball. This season figures to be the end of an era for the Tomahawks as Bobby Cox spits out his chewing tobacco for the final time. Can the the Braves win for Bobby? Will Jason Heyward mash 75 homers? Can Billy Wagner strike out every hitter he faces? These questions and more are answered below. 在勇士隊14次贏得分區冠軍之後(喔是的，除了1994年罷工縮水球季之外，該年結束時分區第一是博覽會隊)，勇士隊就沒有接近季後賽過了。而今年被認為是Bobby Cox執教鞭的最後一年。勇士隊能夠為了Bobby贏球嗎？Jason Heyward可以轟個75發嗎？ Billy Wagner可以K掉他面對的每一個打者嗎？這些問題將在下頭一個一個回答。譯者按： 1.1991-2005這15年間勇士隊贏得14次分區冠軍，這個紀錄和Bobby Cox本身都是個傳奇。 2.Tomahawk是印第安戰斧，這裡應該是指教頭Bobby Cox，而為什麼要講"把嘴裡嚼的煙草吐掉"我猜想跟他那大聯盟紀錄的151次ejection有關係。(有理解錯誤請指正) 3.有關Tomahawk、Tomahawk Chop(戰斧之歌)的由來，有興趣的人可以看底下這篇文章。 http://tinyurl.com/3x2xch To mix things up a bit I've teamed up with Alex Remington, who writes about the Braves at Chop-n-Change. Hang on—here we go. 為了整合度更好一點，我跟Alex Remington合作，他在Chop-n-Change網站有寫一些關於勇士隊的文章。等一下--好我們開始。 Chop-n-Change：http://www.chop-n-change.com/ 1. What production can we expect from Jason Heyward in 2010? 1. 我們在2010到底能期待Jason Heyward繳出甚麼樣的成績？ Alex: As I wrote elsewhere, I think that Heyward's superior control of the strike zone will lead him to exceed the expectations of most of the offseason projection systems, nearly all of which expect him to hit fewer than 20 homers with an OPS right around .800. I'm expecting a tick better on all those counts. Most importantly, though, he stabilizes the Braves' right field situation, where he'll be far, far, far better than the .262/.305/.409 that Jeff Francoeur produced from 2007 to 2009, and isn't likely to be a downgrade defensively. Alex：正如我之前在別的地方(http://tinyurl.com/yg3w44b )寫的，我認為Heyward的傑出好球帶控制能力會讓他超越大部分預測系統所預計的成績(注)，幾乎全部的預測成績都預計他只能繳出低於20HR、OPS.800左右的成績。我目前預期他能打得比這個數字好些。儘管如此，最重要的是他讓勇士隊的右外野穩多了，他可以打得比07-09年Jeff Francoeur 的.262/.305/.409好太太太多了，而且幾乎不可能守得比他還要糟糕。注：預測成績在這邊指的是John Sickels的這篇http://tinyurl.com/ybdt7ty 140 games, 490 at-bats, 77 runs, 137 hits, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 19 homers, 58 walks, 89 strikeouts, 12 steals, 4 caught stealing, slash line .280/.361/.473, .834 OPS 而四大預測給他的分別成績是： Bill James: 542 at-bats, .303/.371/.465, .836 OPS CHONE: 310 at-bats, .258/.324/.416, .740 OPS ZIPS: 448 at-bats, .275/.341/.429, .770 OPS PECOTA: 423 plate appearances, .272/.343/.450, .793 OPS Sickels本人是稍微悲觀地偏向ZIPS的預測成績。 Of course, he isn't guaranteed for immediate success. Even Matt Wieters, who once stole second, third and the shortstop's hat on the same pitch, had an adjustment period last year before catching fire in the last month of the season. While Heyward's floor is probably higher than Francoeur's baseline, it may not necessarily be that much higher. So he'll be a welcome improvement for the Braves, and he'll likely post Nick Johnson-like P/PA numbers, but he won't be an offensive catalyst just yet. 當然，無法保證他一定能成功。就算是曾經在投手投一球的時間內同時盜二壘、三壘還順便摸走游擊手的帽子(注1)的Matt Wieters，在上個球季最後一個月的大肆開火之前，也都經過一段調整時間。不過Heyward可能連地板(注2)都高過Francoeur，或許也不需要那麼高。所以他對勇士陣容將會是受歡迎的升級，而且他有可能繳出類似Nick Johnson 的P/PA數，但是還不會是勇士隊的攻擊催化劑。注1：我無法想像這會是Wieters能做到的事，所以我想Alex是故意酸了一下Wieters。注2：相對於天花板(ceiling)，我不知道翻成哪個字比較恰當。 John: There's no doubt Heyward is good—you've just got to look at his spring training stats. His line is a massive .347/.467/.490 and some of his home runs were true monsters. The most impressive thing is his ability to get on base. Make no mistake: This kid has a 20:20 batting eye, and unlike Francoeur, whose place Heyward will inherit as face of the franchise, he'll walk enough to get to Everest and back (aside: for goodness sake, Jason, don't do any Delta ads). That should mean at the very least he'll survive in the bigs. John：Heyward很棒是不用懷疑的--去看看他的春訓成績就知道了。.347/.467/.490的超棒三圍，而且他有幾隻全壘打像是怪物一樣。來確定一下：這小子有著20:20的選球眼，而且不像Francoeur，Heyward取代他是要來成為下一個王朝的門面的。他可以選到數量足夠讓他來回聖母峰一趟的保送(題外話：看在老天份上，Jason，不要拍任何Delta的廣告(注)) 。這些都顯示最少最少這小子都會在大聯盟生存下來。注：我不知道Delta是不是指Delta Air Lines美國航空公司，而且我不知道這家公司跟 Heyward有甚麼關係...orz He also tops most prospect lists, which is encouraging but by no means guarantees success. Remember who the last Brave was to be the No. 1 rated prospect in all of baseball? Yes ... Andy Marte. His career line of .216/.272/.352/ is anything but magical and is a stark reminder of how quickly baseball talent turns from boom to bust. However, let's not kid ourselves. Heyward's minor league career has already been on a different planet than Marte's. 他也是被報導排名勝過大部分人的頂級新秀，這很令人振奮，但卻不保證一定成功。還記得勇士上一位被認為是NO.1新秀的人嗎？是的...Andy Marte。.216/.272/.352的生涯成績一點也不夢幻而且是個血淋淋的警告，告訴我們棒球天份從露出光芒到消失不見可以是如何地快速。儘管如此，不開自己玩笑。Heyward的小聯盟成績跟Marte是完全不同的。 Given the weakness that the Braves have in the outfield, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Heyward top the pile come the end of the year. One thing is certain: It is unlikely the Braves will challenge for the division without a productive Heyward. 考量到勇士的外野是如此孱弱，Heyward在今年結束後成為外野舉足輕重的角色是不會太令人驚訝的。有一件是肯定的，缺少崛起的Heyward的話，勇士是不太可能在他們分區挑戰分區冠軍的。 2. Is Wagner going to dominate the ninth? 2. Wagner會能夠終結第九局嗎？ Alex: Mariano Rivera's contemporaneous career has obscured just how good he's been, but Wagner has been one of the most consistent and excellent relievers of the modern closer era—as Mac Thomason has written, "There aren’t many relievers, ever, who have been better than Wagner." Alex：在同時期的Mariano Rivera表現之下，Wagner曾經有多棒就被人忽略了，但是 Wagner一直是現在終結者史上最穩定也最棒的其中一名--就如同Mac Thomason寫的一樣， "沒有多少後援投手"曾經"表現得比Wagner好過。" Wagner has had exactly one bad year in the major leagues: 2000, when he posted a 6.18 ERA in 27.2 innings before going on the DL and eventually undergoing elbow surgery. That is the only time in his major league career that he had an ERA over 3.00 or a K/9 under 10. Wagner過去有個很糟糕的一季：2000年在他進DL之前，他在27.2局裡留下了6.18ERA的成績，最終去動了手肘手術。這是他大聯盟生涯中唯一一個球季ERA超過3或是K/9低於10。 It was also, prior to 2009, the only time he'd ever pitched fewer than 47 innings in a season. Then, of course, he blew out his elbow again, but came off Tommy John surgery just in time to throw upper-90s heat in September to secure a one-year payday. When he's been healthy, he's never been anything short of excellent. If he's healthy, there's little reason to doubt that he can be excellent again, especially considering the year that the 41-year-old Trevor Hoffman just had in Milwaukee. 同時，這也是在2009年之前他唯一一次單季投球局數少於47局。然後，當然就是他又操壞他的手肘，但他成功從TJ手術中復原然後及時在九月展現出他的high-90s火球，為他保住那一年的薪水。當他從前健康的時候，除了傑出沒有別的能夠形容他。如果現在的他是健康的，沒甚麼理由可以去懷疑他再度拿出傑出的表現，特別是考慮到去年41歲的Trevor Hoffman在釀酒人的演出。 If he's healthy. After all, he's a 38-year-old lefty coming off his second elbow surgery. He's a physical freak—an undersized righty who can somehow throw 100 mph with his left hand—but even physical freaks can't stretch their tendons forever. Tommy John surgery is viewed as a relatively safe procedure, but it's not foolproof. Wagner had a nice stretch run in 2009 and has pitched well in the spring of 2010, but his arm will be monitored closely. If he goes down, the Braves will rely on their setup duo, fellow Tommy John returnee Peter Moylan and the 40-year-old Takashi Saito. If the Braves can get 150 innings out of that trio, the late innings will be well in hand. If not, they could be in trouble. 如果他是健康的。畢竟現在是個38歲，剛從他的第二次手肘手術中復原的左投。他是個體能怪物--一個體型較小的右投可能有辦法用左手投個100mph的速球--但是即使是體能怪物也不能夠永遠拉長他的韌帶。Tommy John手術被認為是個相對安全的手術，但並非萬無一失。Wagner在2009年的韌帶伸展狀況良好同時2010春訓目前為止投得也不錯，但他的手臂仍將會受到嚴密的追蹤。如果他倒下來了，勇士將仰賴他們的兩位SU，同樣是開過TJ的 Peter Moylan和40歲的齋藤隆。如果勇士能從這三個人身上拿個150局，那後段局數就盡在掌握之中。如果不行，那就麻煩大了。 John: Certainty. That is what a great closer gives you. When did the Braves last have certainty in the ninth? In 2004, when John Smoltz was at the back end of the rotation. Since then the Braves have wheeled out sub-standard closers: Dan Kolb, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano ... there's no certainty there. At least Soriano and Gonzalez can pitch ... day to day you can't be sure if they'll be healthy. John：確實是如此。這就是一個很棒的終結者能夠給你的。上一次勇士能夠擁有這樣在第九局的確實感是甚麼時候的事？在2004年，當John Smoltz當輪值後盾的時候。從那之後，勇士就換過一個個標準以下的終結者：Dan Kolb,Kyle Farnsworth,Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano(注)...等，就沒有那樣的令人放心了。至少Soriano跟Gonzalez還能投... 以天為單位計算，你根本不能確定他們是健康的。注：他把M-Gon跟R.Soriano講進去，在底下的common就立刻被講話了XD 他有回應說並不是說這兩隻不好，只是沒"那麼"好...(sub-standard惹的禍) Certainty is what the Braves hope to get from Wagner. Sure he has been far from healthy over the last couple of years. But last year, after Tommy John surgery, he did well at Fenway Park. His heat was in the mid- to high-90s and he looked like his old self. I'm optimistic that Wagner will work out well for the Braves. 這種確定感就是勇士希望能從Wagner身上得到的。在過去他健康的幾年裡他當然是有這樣的能力。不過最近幾年，動過TJ手術之後，在Fenway Park是投得不錯的。他的火球大概在mid-到high-90s之間，而且看起來就跟過去的他一樣。我對他在勇士隊的投球抱持樂觀態度。 Let's go through the facts. First, Wagner is a seriously good pitcher. His career ERA is 2.39; his K/BB is 3.9 and his K/9 is 12. Second, despite being on the DL he is STILL a seriously good hurler. As Alex mentioned, the only time that Wagner has had an ERA over 3.00 was in 2000, and that was when we was hurt. You want me to prognosticate? He'll keep off the DL, put in a sub-3 ERA and get at least 30 saves. You heard it here! 讓我們檢視現實的數字。第一，Wagner絕對是一個好投手。他的生涯ERA是2.39，K/BB是 3.9而K/9是12。第二，儘管常進DL，他仍然絕對會是個好投手。就像Alex提到的，他唯一 ERA超過3的球季是在2000年，而那是在他(注)受傷的時候。你想要我預測嗎？他會整季沒進DL，ERA低於3，拿到至少30次SV。你聽到了喔！注：that was when "we" was hurt←我懷疑是he打成we... 3. How good is the rotation? 3. 輪值到底有多棒？ Alex: The Braves' 2009 Opening Day starter, Derek Lowe, was so unimpressive last year after signing a four-year, $60 million contract that the Braves spent most of the offseason fruitlessly trying to offload him. When it became clear that no one wanted him any more than the Braves did, they turned around and traded their best pitcher of 2009, Javier Vazquez, for Melky Cabrera and a flame-throwing teenager. Alex：勇士2009年開幕戰的先發投手，Derek Lowe，在他簽了張4年60M的合約之後，去年表現是如此的不顯眼，這讓勇士在去年季後花了很多徒勞的時間嘗試擺脫掉他。當沒有任何球隊比當初勇士更想要他這個事實變得如此清晰之後，他們回頭交易掉他們2009年最棒的投手，Javier Vazquez，換來Melky Cabrera和一個火球年輕人。 After all that, Lowe's still a Brave, and he's not bad for the back of the rotation, where he and Kenshin Kawakami are still likely to deliver an ERA somewhere south of 4.50. Anything better than that will be gravy. 在那之後，Lowe還是勇士隊的一員，不過他至少還是個不錯的後段輪值投手，他跟川上憲伸組成的後段輪值仍然可以提供大約差不多4.50的ERA。比這數字再好的話都算是驚喜了。 That's because, as usual, the Braves' top three starters are terrific. Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson are all No. 1/No. 2 starters, and all look set to excel in 2010. Like Wagner, Hudson came back from Tommy John surgery last year, and like Wagner, he pitched quite well in the final months of the year. Jurrjens is likely to come back to earth a bit after 2010, when he had an ERA about a run less than the year before despite virtually identical components. But his 2008 was plenty good. And Hanson was simply dominant during the final months of the season, looking every bit like the ace he was predicted to be. He and Jurrjens might be the best under-24 one-two punch in baseball. 那是因為，正常來說，勇士的前三號先發非常棒。Tommy Hanson，Jair Jurrjens和Tim Hudson都是1號/2號的先發，而且這三人在2010看起來都更好了。就像Wagner，Hudson從去年的TJ手術中回來。Jurrjens在2010數字可能會稍微沒那麼好看，去年他跟差不多的投手比較起來ERA整整低了一分。但他的2008也是很好的。然後Hanson在上季最後一個月只能用完美壓制來形容，看起來就如同被預測要成為的Ace一樣。他跟Jurrjens可能是低於24歲最棒的1/2號投手組合。 John: I like the Braves' rotation. Sure I'd rather have seen Lowe disappear rather than Vasquez, but that was never going to happen when Lowe still has three years left on his $60 million contract. Anyway, our old friend, regression to the mean, should help Braves fans get past their initial disappointment. John：我喜歡勇士的輪值。當然我寧願看到Lowe消失而不是Vazquez，但考慮到他還有60M 合約剩下的三年要走完，要他消失是不可能的事。不管怎樣，我們的這位老朋友將會回歸到生涯平均，這應該會讓勇士迷們慢慢不像一開始這樣失望。 Also, for the first time in many years, the Braves have a stable rotation that should hold together for a few years. Kawakami is only one year into his contract, Hudson re-upped in the offseason, and Jurrjens and Hanson, the young whippersnappers, are still pre-arb. This crew could hang together for three more years (although if Lowe has a good year he'll be offloaded). The last time the Braves had a stable rotation, with a solid top three ... yup, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux. 而且，最近這麼多年來第一次，勇士擁有一個穩定而且能夠維持好幾年的輪值。川上他的合約只有一年，Hudson在季後再度站起來，然後Jurrjens和Hanson，年輕的狂妄小子，仍然還沒有仲裁資格。這樣的組成可以支撐三年或更久時間(雖然如果Lowe哪年投得好，他就會被交易掉)。上一次勇士隊有穩定輪值，而且有強力前三號...嗯，Smoltz、Glavine、Maddux。 Now I'm not suggesting that the current trio is a patch on what may have been the best 1-2-3 in baseball. Nowhere near. But a look at the projections shows Jurrjens on a 3.80 ERA, Hudson with a 3.90 ERA and Hanson at a 3.50 ERA. On paper it sounds great—but then again most rotations do. One of these guys is bound to hit the DL at some stage and that is when the Braves will struggle. Who's the reserve starter at Turner Field? Jo-Jo Reyes? .... Please, no. 現在我還不會說這個三人組會是棒球史上最好的1/2/3號。事實上還差得遠。但來看看預測給這三個人的成績，Jurrjens ERA 3.80，Hudson ERA 3.90，Hanson ERA 3.50。紙上講看起來當然不錯--但大部分的輪值都是這樣。要是這些人其中一個在哪一段時間進了DL，那勇士就糟糕了。誰會是Turner Field預備的先發投手呢？Jo-Jo Reyes？拜託...不要。 4. Can Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus stay on the field? 4. Chipper Jones跟Troy Glaus可以留在球場上嗎？ Alex: The pitching probably won't be the problem for the Braves. It's the offense. No regular slugged over .500 or hit 25 homers for the Braves in 2009, and there's a very good chance no one will in 2010 either, considering that Heyward won't turn 21 until August. The team is severely underpowered, and the No. 3 and No. 4 hitters are aging sluggers with injury problems. Alex：投手可能不會是勇士的問題。是打擊。在2009球季沒有一個勇士球員SLG超過.500 或是轟出超過25發HR，而且2010很有可能也是一個都沒有，考慮到Heyward到8月前都還不滿21歲。這支隊伍嚴重火力不足，而且陣中3、4棒還是老化中的砲手外帶傷病問題。 Glaus and Jones were two of the best third basemen of the last decade, but they're both past their prime, and Glaus is trying to learn how to wear a first baseman's mitt, too. Glaus has played 149 games in three of the last five years, a total that Jones hasn't reached since 2003, but the fact is: Over the past seven years, Glaus is averaging 104 games played, and Chipper's averaging 131. (Over that same period, Jones is slugging .535, and Glaus is slugging .498.) When they've played, they've hit. They've just been off the field a lot. Glaus跟Jones是過去十年最棒的三壘手中的兩位，但都已經過了巔峰期，而且Glaus目前還在嘗試學怎麼穿一壘手的手套。Glaus在過去5季當中的3季都至少出賽149場，這是個 Jones從2003年後就沒有達到過的數字，但事實是：回顧過去七年，Glaus平均出賽104場，而Chipper平均反而有131場。(同樣的期間，Jones長打率有.535，而Glaus為.498) 當他們可以上場，他們可以打得很好。他們只是缺賽太多了。 If the Braves can get 1,000 combined at-bats out of their corner infielders, they'll have a decent middle of the order. The rest of the lineup is filled with pesky hitters with double-digit home run power: center fielder Nate McLouth, shortstop Yunel Escobar, second baseman Martin Prado, catcher Brian McCann (the Braves' best hitter in 2009), right fielder Heyward, and the left field platoon of Matt Diaz and Cabrera. None of them are automatic outs, but none of them is all that frightening, either. Without production from Jones and Glaus, the Braves will be playing a lot of 4-3 ballgames. 如果勇士可以從這兩位角內野手得到總共1000個ABs，他們會有很好的中間打序。打線其他地方充斥著不怎麼樣、僅差不多雙位數HR power的打者：中外野手Nate McLouth，游擊手 Yunel Escobar，二壘手Martin Prado，捕手Brian McCann(勇士2009最佳打者)，右外野手 Heyward，然後左外野由Matt Diaz跟Cabrera輪替。其中沒有一位是自動出局數，但也沒有一位是特別嚇人的。沒有Jones跟Glaus，勇士將會打出一大堆4分到3分的比賽。 John: Who the hell is asking these questions ... another health-related conundrum. Given Alex has done such a good job with his answer and I'm bored of talking about the DL I'll answer a different question, "Can Chipper Jones regain batting title form?". John：到底是誰問這些問題...另一個健康與否...難解的問題。既然Alex回答得那麼好，而且我又厭煩不想講跟DL有關的事情，我來回答一個不一樣的問題，"Chipper能不能再度拿回一個打擊王title？" Chipper's demise has been predicted for years. Remember in 2004 when he went .248/.362/.485? Pundits were ready to pen an obituary to what even was at that point a stellar career. Since then Jones has accelerated: 2005 was .296/.412/.556 and then his average didn't drop below .300 until 2009, when he hit a disappointing .264/.388/.430. Can he bounce back once again? Chipper的衰退已經被預料到好幾年了。還記得在2004年他打出了.248/.362/.485的成績嗎？專家們已經準備寫一篇唱衰文說這樣一個傑出的球員到底是發生甚麼事了。然而從那之後Jones就回升了：2005是.296/.412/.556，然後打擊率再也沒低於.300過，直到2009年，他打出令人失望的.264/.388/.430。他還能夠再度反彈嗎？ Unfortunately, the odds are more against him than last time. He's 38 years old and at this point in their careers many hitters see a sharp drop-off in performance. And it wasn't like he was especially unhealthy in 2009. Sure he had some knocks and niggles, but he started 143 games—the most since 2003. 很不幸地，這次不利數據比上次更強烈對他持反對意見。他已經38歲而且在這個年紀很多球員表現出劇烈的衰退。而且看起來並不像是他在09年特別不健康。當然他有受到一些撞擊或是小傷，但他先發了143場比賽--從2003年以來最多的一年。 However, his batting eye is as sharp as a fox's, as evidenced by his ability to get on base at a .388 clip. That has a lot of value even if his arms can't deliver the power they used to. My admiration for Jones as a player has grown this season as he has confounded the baseball community with his approach at the plate. 儘管這樣，他的選球眼依然犀利得跟狐狸一樣，證據是他特別高的.388上壘率。這很有幫助，即使現在他的手臂已經無法再展現出過去的power。我對Jones身為一個球員的讚揚( http://tinyurl.com/y8pj64u )在這一季更高因為他公開說明自己在打擊區的策略實在令人驚嘆(注)。注：這邊不確定有沒有翻錯 The many projections figure that Jones should hit for a .290/.400/.470 clip. I don't know about you, but I'll take that line right now. My head tells me he'll be closer to where he was last season, but that's still better than the rest of the Braves infield. 很多人預測認為Jones今年可以回頭打出.290/.400/.470的成績。我不太懂你們在想甚麼，但我會暫時接受這個數字。我的理智告訴我他會比較接近去年的表現，但他還是比其他勇士內野來得好就是了。 5. The biggie... can Bobby win again? 5. 最大條的問題...Bobby可以再度獲勝嗎？ Alex: The 2010 Braves look a lot like the teams that Cox took to the playoffs like clockwork: a deep, dominating starting rotation and a pesky but underpowered offense. They certainly look like one of the best four teams in the league, but while Cox certainly can escort this team to October, these Braves don't immediately look dominant enough to win it all. The Phillies return a terrific team with Roy Halladay at the fore, and the Marlins, Rockies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Giants all finished with better records than the Braves in 2009. Some of those wins may have been fluky—I'm looking at you, Ryan Franklin—but the Braves will have a lot of teams to leapfrog. Alex：2010年的勇士看起來跟Cox過去帶進季後賽的勇士很像，一隻照計畫進行的球隊：一個很深、壓制力強大的先發輪值和一個不怎麼樣、power不太夠的攻擊打線。他們當然看起來像是聯盟中四隻最好的球隊之一，但就算Cox理所當然地把這支隊伍送進十月份的比賽，這些勇士們卻不像能夠立刻強大到夠把比賽全都贏下來。費城人隊有了 Roy Halladay站在前線立刻變身成一隻超棒的球隊，然後馬林魚、洛磯、紅雀、道奇和巨人在2009球季全都有比勇士好的戰績。當中有些或許有點靠運氣--我就是在講你， Ryan Franklin--但是勇士有好多隊伍必須踩過去。 The Braves don't necessarily have more question marks than any other team— after all, just about every team has to caveat its chances against the likelihood of injury. The Braves had the third-best run differential in the NL last year, and they've had the best run differential in the Grapefruit League this spring. They're virtually guaranteed to score a lot more runs than they give up. But they won't bludgeon anyone to death—they'll win with pitching and singles. That may well be enough in the regular season, but it likely won't once October rolls around. 勇士並不會比起其他任何球隊有更多的問號--畢竟，差不多每一隻球隊都必須警告自己必須提防受傷的風險。勇士隊上個球季有著國聯第三好的得失分差，而這個春訓在葡萄柚聯盟他們的得失分差是最好的。好像已經可以確定他們這一季能在得失分差上更上層樓。但他們沒辦法敲昏任何一隻隊伍--他們必須靠投球和一壘安打贏球。那在正規季賽可能會足夠，但可能沒辦法在季後賽依樣畫葫蘆。 John: I could write an essay on this, but I'll keep it short. The Braves were unlucky last year. They score a lot more runs than they gave up and should have ended up with a better record. The rotation should be an improvement despite the loss of Vasquez. Lowe will improve a bit, Hudson will replace Vasquez, and Hanson and Jurrjens are a year wiser. Although the bullpen is a weak spot, a healthy Wagner will covert a lot of close games if he is given the chance. And Heyward has the discipline and power to be a rock star in the outfield. John：我可以對這個問題寫一篇專文，但我會講得簡短些。勇士隊去年並不幸運。他們得分比失分多而且應該有更好的戰績才對。儘管失去了Vazquez，輪值應該還是會比去年進步。Lowe會稍微進步一點，Hudson會取代Vazquez，然後Hanson跟Jurrjens會更聰明。雖然牛棚是個弱點，健康的Wagner將能應付(注)很多比分接近的比賽，如果他有機會的話。而且Heyward紀律跟power都有，在外野會成為一位紅牌球星。注：我覺得原文把cover誤植成covert了... If that happens, that I fancy their chances. If one of those factors goes off, then no way. The problem is that the NL East is probably the strongest division on the Senior Circuit. The Phillies have reached the last two World Series and, if anything, have upgraded with Doc Halladay over the offseason. The Mets have the talent but underperform and the Marlins are starting to up their payroll and still have a very talented bunch of ballplayers. 如果這些都發生，那麼我認為他們成功機率很大。如果哪一項因素不如人意，那就免談了。問題就在於國聯東區可能是最強大的一區。費城人已經連續兩年進到WS同時，若有的話就是，在季後賽結束後成功得到Doc而升級了。大都會有天份但普遍表現不佳，馬林魚開始往上增加他們的payroll而且仍然擁有一大堆非常具天份的球員。 It's Bobby Cox's last season in charge. You know he wants it—that is why Heyward is starting. Here is hoping that the Tomahawks can give one of the greatest managers in the game the send-off he deserves. Go Braves! 這是Bobby Cox最後一年的執教。你知道他很想要贏--這就是為什麼Heyward會先發的原因。我在這邊希望所有的小斧頭們可以在比賽中給這位可能是最偉大的教頭一個送別的、他應有的勳章。衝吧!勇士隊!! 有錯歡迎指正喔~~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.217.50