2009 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

看板Marlins作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/12/10 19:46)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/5wvdwu It's hard to talk a lot about the Florida Marlins because when people talk about a team's future, they talk about the team in the context of a baseball team and winning games. Jeff Loria isn't trying to run a baseball team but instead, the sports equivalent of a slum lord. He puts out a horrible product and waits for his government honeypot. Sure, the Marlins take steps forward on the field and occasionally even do well, but Loria actually saps the joy out of any success by ensuring that any step forward is only meaningful to the extent that it helps or hinder his personal payday. Marlins fans haven't supported the team, but it's not their fault. Who can blame them? The Marlins have shown absolutely no loyalty to their fans. The team? The Marlins have some excellent players and at least one future star in Michael Stanton. But what does it matter? They'll all eventually move on to organizations that give a ####. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ ARM FAIR: John Baker* .251 .326 .368 99 323 38 81 18 1 6 38 34 73 85 Fr Paul Lo Duca .261 .318 .337 80 261 26 68 11 0 3 27 19 20 76 Fr Matt Treanor .242 .322 .335 62 182 17 44 8 0 3 22 18 41 76 Av POOR: Mike Rabelo# .242 .297 .355 63 211 19 51 10 1 4 21 13 49 74 Fr Brett Hayes .241 .280 .353 97 340 32 82 12 1 8 34 17 70 68 Fr Paul Hoover .218 .271 .332 63 202 17 44 9 1 4 19 14 59 60 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG FAIR: Jorge Cantu .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 106 Av POOR: Wes Helms .258 .321 .399 107 213 22 55 12 0 6 37 16 52 91 Av Gaby Sanchez .254 .319 .405 138 511 63 130 29 0 16 70 45 79 92 Av Logan Morrison* .252 .304 .403 138 528 58 133 26 0 18 65 38 88 87 Fr Dallas McPherson*.217 .295 .432 108 368 45 80 18 2 19 50 39 152 91 Av Paul Lo Duca .261 .318 .337 80 261 26 68 11 0 3 27 19 20 76 Fr Alfredo Amezaga# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av John Gall .244 .303 .356 90 320 31 78 16 1 6 42 25 50 76 Fr Jason Wood .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 56 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT: Dan Uggla .262 .348 .488 150 572 103 150 38 2 29 87 67 152 120 Fr VERY GOOD: Jorge Cantu .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 106 Av POOR: Chris Coghlan* .251 .315 .363 125 487 62 122 23 1 10 62 42 69 81 Av Chase Lambin# .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 83 Fr Alfredo Amezaga# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av Andrew Beattie# .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 74 Av Chris Barnwell .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 64 Av Robert Andino .232 .280 .337 114 406 39 94 15 2 8 28 26 90 64 Vg Jason Wood .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 56 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG AVERAGE: Jorge Cantu .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 106 Av FAIR: Wes Helms .258 .321 .399 107 213 22 55 12 0 6 37 16 52 91 Av Gaby Sanchez .254 .319 .405 138 511 63 130 29 0 16 70 45 79 92 Av Dallas McPherson*.217 .295 .432 108 368 45 80 18 2 19 50 39 152 91 Av POOR: Chris Coghlan* .251 .315 .363 125 487 62 122 23 1 10 62 42 69 81 Av Chase Lambin# .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 83 Fr Alfredo Amezaga# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av Andrew Beattie# .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 74 Av Chris Barnwell .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 64 Av Robert Andino .232 .280 .337 114 406 39 94 15 2 8 28 26 90 64 Vg Jason Wood .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 56 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT: Hanley Ramirez .307 .393 .546 154 612 124 188 39 4 33 71 81 112 148 Fr FAIR: Chase Lambin# .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 83 Fr Alferdo Amezage# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av POOR: Chris Barnwell .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 64 Fr Rebort Andino .232 .280 .337 114 406 39 94 15 2 8 28 26 90 64 Av Jason Wood .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 56 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD: Jeremy Hermida* .271 .352 .468 135 479 72 130 27 2 21 69 55 123 117 Av Cody Ross .263 .332 .489 120 354 49 93 23 3 17 53 33 91 116 Vg FAIR: John Raynor .260 .325 .390 128 497 81 129 22 2 13 42 42 114 90 Av Cameron Maybin .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 90 Vg Luis Gonzalez* .255 .333 .392 121 329 36 84 19 1 8 49 38 43 93 Fr POOR: Jacque Jones* .253 .320 .382 86 288 34 73 15 2 6 40 27 61 87 Av Chase Lambin# .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 83 Fr Scott Cousins* .251 .297 .396 95 371 45 93 16 1 12 42 23 81 83 Av Jai Miller .227 .295 .373 129 459 47 104 20 1 15 44 42 139 77 Vg Alfredo Amezage# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av Michael Stanton .221 .284 .386 133 529 53 117 19 1 22 55 40 139 77 Vg Brett Carroll .225 .279 .403 109 347 40 78 16 2 14 44 22 90 80 Av John Gall .244 .303 .356 90 320 31 78 16 1 6 42 25 50 76 Fr Andrew Beattie# .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 74 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTER FIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD: Cody Ross .263 .332 .489 120 354 49 93 23 3 17 53 33 91 116 Av FAIR: John Raynor .260 .325 .390 128 497 81 129 22 2 13 42 42 114 90 Av Cameron Maybin .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 90 Vg Jacque Jones* .253 .320 .382 86 288 34 73 15 2 6 40 27 61 87 Av Scott Cousins* .251 .297 .396 95 371 45 93 16 1 12 42 23 81 83 Fr POOR: Jai Miller .227 .295 .373 129 459 47 104 20 1 15 44 42 139 77 Av Alfredo Amezage# .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 77 Av Michael Stanton .221 .284 .386 133 529 53 117 19 1 22 55 40 139 77 Av Brett Carroll .225 .279 .403 109 347 40 78 16 2 14 44 22 90 80 Fr Andrew Beattie# .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 74 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ MIDDLE THIRD: Josh Johnson 4.04 6 5 20 18 107.0 110 48 9 40 87 106 Ricky Nolasco 4.57 10 11 31 30 189.0 201 96 28 40 151 94 Anibal Sanchez 4.59 5 5 17 17 96.0 98 49 11 43 76 93 Andrew Miller* 4.60 8 10 32 25 141.0 147 72 11 63 113 93 Eulogio de la Cruz 4.73 7 9 37 19 135.0 140 71 12 67 96 91 BOTTON THIRD: Mark Hendrickson 4.90 6 8 31 17 123.0 138 67 15 42 83 87 Burke Badenhop 4.94 6 7 21 19 113.0 134 62 11 39 55 87 Christopher Volstad 5.03 6 9 21 21 127.0 147 71 14 43 62 85 Ryan Tucker 5.11 5 8 34 22 132.0 144 75 15 66 79 84 Dallas Trahern 5.49 7 11 25 25 141.0 166 86 21 60 74 78 Aaron Thompson* 5.61 3 6 19 19 101.0 122 63 13 43 43 78 Chris Seddon* 5.62 6 11 26 26 141.0 160 88 23 63 99 76 Henricus van den Hurk5.66 1 3 7 7 35.0 38 22 6 19 36 76 Bob Keppel 5.88 5 11 24 20 124.0 155 81 18 54 59 73 Dan Meyer* 5.97 3 8 21 18 101.0 119 67 17 45 56 72 Brett Sinkbeil 6.05 4 9 22 22 116.0 145 78 19 45 79 71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ MIDDLE THIRD: Arthur Rhodes* 3.32 3 2 54 0 38.0 34 14 1 19 40 131 Joe Nelson 3.65 3 2 63 0 69.0 58 28 9 31 86 117 Lee Gardner 3.77 3 2 38 0 43.0 46 18 3 13 23 116 Matthew Lindstrom 3.80 4 3 64 0 64.0 64 27 4 25 54 113 Brandon Villafuerte 4.02 3 3 41 0 47.0 48 21 4 19 37 107 Leo Nunez 4.14 3 2 42 0 50.0 49 23 6 21 38 104 BOTTON THIRD: Renyel Pinto* 4.50 3 4 66 0 64.0 58 32 9 38 59 95 Logan Kensing 4.58 2 3 48 0 53.0 47 27 8 35 62 94 Doug Waechter 4.71 3 3 52 0 65.0 73 34 8 19 40 91 Taylor Tankersley* 4.97 3 4 68 0 58.0 58 32 9 33 56 86 Jesus Delgado 5.25 4 5 40 5 72.0 78 42 8 43 44 82 Timothy Wood 5.32 3 4 31 0 44.0 49 26 6 20 24 81 Christopher Leroux 5.96 3 7 55 0 71.0 82 47 14 33 49 72 Harvey Garcia 6.21 2 5 47 0 58.0 64 40 11 37 51 69 Carlos Martinez 6.64 2 4 39 0 42.0 50 31 12 17 34 65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Jeremy Hermida AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .271 .352 .468 135 479 72 130 27 2 21 69 55 123 117 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bruce Campbell, Ben Grieve Offense % STAR 46 AVG 69 REP LV 93 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 4 >.400 5 >10 0 >200 0 >140 14 >.375 23 >5 6 >150 6 >130 26 >.350 59 >120 43 >.325 87 2B % >110 64 >.300 98 >45 2 >100 81 >30 32 >90 91 >80 96 >60 100 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 10 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 2 >.500 27 >40 2 >50 0 >.300 13 >.450 58 >30 10 >30 0 >.275 45 >.400 87 >20 43 >10 19 >.250 81 >.350 96 >10 92 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Cameron Maybin AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Projection .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 90 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Sammy Sosa, Choo Freeman Offense % STAR 20 AVG 56 REP LV 91 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 1 >.375 3 >5 10 >150 0 >130 4 >.350 16 >120 9 >.325 45 2B % >110 18 >.300 79 >45 0 >100 32 >30 0 >90 52 >80 71 >60 95 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 1 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 6 >40 0 >50 3 >.300 5 >.450 18 >30 2 >30 38 >.275 22 >.400 48 >20 14 >10 100 >.250 55 >.350 79 >10 71 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Ricky Nolasco ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.57 10 11 31 30 189 201 96 28 40 151 94 Top Near-Age Comps: Moose Haas, Don Sutton ERA % Top 1/3 27 Mid 1/3 32 Bot 1/3 41 ERA+ % BB % >150 1 <32 24 >140 3 <42 61 >130 7 <53 92 >120 13 <63 96 >110 23 <74 100 >100 37 <84 100 >90 55 >80 76 HR % >70 92 <15 3 <21 25 K % <27 52 >189 4 <34 66 >168 15 >147 45 >126 85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Andrew Miller ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.60 8 10 32 25 141 147 72 11 63 113 93 Top Near-Age Comps: Jim Kaat, Danny Jackson ERA % Top 1/3 21 Mid 1/3 40 Bot 1/3 39 ERA+ % BB % >150 1 <24 0 >140 2 <31 6 >130 4 <39 13 >120 8 <47 18 >110 17 <55 37 >100 33 <63 44 >90 55 >80 79 HR % >70 94 <11 53 <16 79 K % <20 98 >141 11 <25 100 >125 21 >110 42 >94 73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) HANLEY RAMIREZ % 40/40 7 50/50 1-in-499 OPS+ >140 Ramirez 65 Uggla 14 Hermida 14 OBP >.400 Ramirez 44 Hermida 5 Uggla 2 SLG >.550 Ramirez 41 Ross 13 Uggla 12 BA >.325 Ramirez 25 Amezaga 2 Hermida 2 2B >45 Ramirez 24 uggla 11 Hermida 2 3B >10 Ramirez 6 Raynor 2 Andino 2 HR >30 Ramirez 58 Uggla 33 Hermida 10 SB >50 Raynor 42 Ramirez 10 Coghlan 6 ERA+ >140 Nelson 25 Johnson 14 Lindstrom 13 K/9 >9 Nelson 84 Kensing 66 Tankersley 27 BB/9 <1.5 Nolasco 24 Waecther 8 Volstad 6 HR/9 <0.7 Lindstrom 69 Miller 53 de la Cruz 40 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3