Prospect Previews: LH Starters 6-10
http://tinyurl.com/6jzngl
Better late than never, I guess. I expect that some of you might be
surprised to find a couple of guys in this list, not because they're ranked,
but because they aren't ranked higher.
Here we have a couple of traditional soft-tossing lefties, a pair of
diminutive southern boys with power arms and a tall, blood-raw teenager with
nasty, nasty stuff and almost no idea what to do with it.
Make the jump and have a look.
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10) Zach Phillips -- 6'1", 200 lbs. (23rd rounder, 2004) -- DOB: 9/21/1986
It was a predicably rough year for the southpaw from Sacramento as
Bakersfield is a tough place for any pitcher, but especially one who doesn't
have the ability to just rear back and blow the occasional overmatched hitter
away. He makes this list based on what he did in 2007 because his 2008 season
wasn't pretty.
After getting walloped in the Midwest League back in 2006, he improved
dramatically while repeating that circuit in 2007. Phillips allowed four or
more runs in just five of his 27 starts, never allowed more than five runs in
a start, posted an ERA below 3.50 every month of the season (leading to a
season ERA of 2.91, third best in the league). During that breakout season,
he posted a 2.84 ERA in 13 starts before the all-star break and a 2.96 ERA in
14 starts after the break. He was remarkably consistent.
The 6'1" lefty racked up more strikeouts in his full MWL season (157 in 151
innings) than Eric Hurley did in his (152 in 157 innings) and he surrendered
just six dingers all year while posting a 1.71 G/F ratio. In spite of his
high strikeout rates, he's become a more efficient pitcher, averaging just
2.55 BB's per 9 IP (after averaging 4.20 per 9 IP in 2006).
In spite of his statistical success for Clinton in 2007, league observers I
talked to last year were notably unimpressed with Phillips and predicted that
he would struggle mightily in the Cal League, which he did.
The former draft-and-follow who turned 22 after the season ended, brings a
88-90ish sinker, a big droopy yakker that generaly gets good marks and an
improving change that allowed him to erect identical splits in 2007 (.255 /
.309 / .322 vs. lefties and .244 / .303 / .312 vs. right-handed hitters).
This year, however, the Cal League hitters lit him up (5.54 ERA; .284 batting
average), especially from the left side (.317 / .400 / .422). His K/9 fell
from9.30 in 2007 to 7.28 in 2008. His BB/9 shot back up from 2.55 in 2007 to
4.54 in 2008. His G/F ratio deteriorated to 1.35 from 1.74 in 2007.
While just about anyone with any significant level of experience and
knowledge will tell you that it is a mistake to make too much of pitching
stats in the Cal League, especially Bakersfield. It's tough for a pitcher to
get good movement on his stuff where the air is hot and thin, and the ball
flies off of bats there, so it's tough for a sinker / curve guy to succeed
there.
But it's very clear that a guy like Phillips -- a soft-tossing lefty who has
to rely on movement, command and location-- will always have a relatively
small margin of error. He doesn't have the option of pitching to the middle
of the plate, ever, and he''s got to be able to get all three of his pitches
over for strikes if he''s going to succeed. It''s imperative that he throw
strikes and command all of his junk.
2009 Projection: I don't see room for Phillips in the Frisco rotation at the
beginning of the season, so I suspect he'll repeat Bakersfield where he'll
have to learn to work around his limitations.
===============================================================================
9) Michael Ballard - 6'2", 215 lbs. (14th Rounder, 2006) - DOB: 2/06/1984
Last spring, I wrote the following about Mike Ballard:
One of the things that I really like about Ballard is that he appears to be
one of those guys who can learn from experience and make adjustments, which
shouldn't come as a surprise since we are talking about a University of
Virginia alum here. In his three months at Clinton last summer, Ballard put
up these numbers:
*** April: 5.12 ERA; 12 K's & 7 BB's in 19.1 IP; .316 opponents' average
*** May: 4.37 ERA; 31 K's & 1 BB in 35 IP; .284 opponents' average
*** June: 2.11 ERA; 16 K's & 6 BBs in 21.1 IP; ..250 opponents' average
And then after moving on to the extremely hitter-friendly Cal League, he did
this in his three months with Bakersfield:
*** June: 6.10 ERA; 6 K's & 3 BB's in 10.1 IP; .268 opponents' average
*** July: 5.63 ERA; 32 K's and 9 BB's in 38.1 IP; .314 opponents' average
*** August: 3.48 ERA; 29 K's & 7 BB's in 33.2 IP; .227 opponents' average
I like to bet on guys who keep getting better to keep getting better.
Ballard features a classic lefty's array including a big, slow, droopy curve,
an 86-90ish fastball and a plus change. He's going to have to locate
extremely well and mix up his pitches properly to withstand Texas League
hitters, but he seems to have the right mind to do that. He probably won't be
very good for a month or two, but given his track record, I'm willing to wait
and see what he can make of himself by the end of the year.
And guess what? Through his first two months in the Texas League, Ballard's
stuff wasn't cutting it. He held lefties to a .245 / .302 / .265 line, but
right-handed hitters had their way with him. Then in June, pitching
coordinator Rick Adair introduced a cut fastball to Ballard's arsenal that
allowed him to work inside against right-handers and --- as he had done in
both previous stops -- he took off after an adjustment period.
After struggling with an 9.68 ERA in four May starts for Frisco, Ballard
cruised through six June starts, going 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA. Through the
season's first two months, he averaged 5.27 strikeouts per nine innings. In
June and July, he bumped his K/9 up to 7.88. He nearly found himself in
Arlington at one point and then, after a stint on the DL, finished up the
season with a run through Oklahoma city.
Ballard got got killed by Triple-A hitters for awhile. Then, while messing
around with reliever Wes Littleton, he found a two-seam grip that he liked
and added a sinker to his repertoire. From that point, he went on to finish
up the season with two shutout starts, allowing two hits in five innings each
time.
2009 Projection: Ballard should begin the season in the Oklahoma rotation. I
suspect he'll convert to relief work at some point in the relatively near
future and he could become a solid LOOGY for the Rangers. Given the
opportunity and good coaching, Ballard will figure out a way to get guys
out...eventually.
===============================================================================
8) Geuris Grullon - 6'5", 185 lbs. (2005 Int'l F.A.) - DOB: 12/20/1989
Here is the Rangers' Wild Thing.
Though he didn't start this year, the thin, long-limbed southpaw projects as
a possible starter down the road and he put up some ridiculous numbers out of
the Arizona League Rangers' bullpen this year.
Not only did Grullon post a solid 2.66 ERA, but he held the opposition to a
.216 batting average, racked up 10.27 strikeouts per nine innings of work and
induced 4.25 grounders for every one fly ball. Nasty stuff. High strikeout
guys who have extreme ground ball tendencies are very, very rare.
At the same time, Grullon is awfully raw and has a long way to go to realize
his considerable potential. He walked 17 in just 23.2 frames this year and
uncorked five wild pitches (down from an unfathomable 17 plunks in 23 innings
back in 2007).
Grullon gets a ton of action on his 90ish four-seamer and throws two breaking
balls, both in the high 70's. He's got a lot of growing and learning to do,
but he's also blessed with the sort of innate talent and plus stuff that
could make him a star in a few years.
2009 Projection: I would expect Grullon to move on to Spokane and see more
action as a starter next year as the Rangers try to bump up his innings
count. There is so much ability here that I would bet on the Rangers being
patient with Grullon about his considerable lack of polish.
===============================================================================
7) Robbie Ross - 5'11", 185 lbs. (2nd Rounder, 2008) - DOB: 6/24/1989
The book on Ross coming out of a Lexington, Kentucky high school was that he
was a polished lefty who had above average command of good stuff, including a
90-92 mph fastball that occasionally touched 94 and a quick, hard slider.
Some projected Ross as a late first rounder but he fell to the Rangers in the
second round because he wanted mid-first money to forego his commitment to
the University of Kentucky.
Ross signed too late to see action in 2008, but he did play in the Fall
Instructional League and the reports on him were a bit lukewarm.
I'm not terribly bullish on young pitchers who grew up dealing a hard slider,
especially small pitchers. They tend to have significant arm problems at some
point. Compounding that potential problem, I'm not enamored of the inverted
W that shows up in this picture and is evident throughout his pre-draft
scouting video. Pause the video at 1:51, 1:57 and 2:10 for examples of what
I'm talking about.
2009 Projection: I don't think he'll get the Blake Beavan treatment and go
straight to Hickory in spite of not having pitched professionally in his
draft year. Ross figures to stay back in Surprise and report for duty when
Northwest League play begins in mid-June.
===============================================================================
6) Kasey Kiker - 5'11", 190 lbs. (1st Rounder, 2006) - DOB: 11/19/1987
The 2008 season didn't go as well for Kasey Kiker as most probably imagined
it would. He didn't show up to Surprise in March ready to go and quickly
developed some arm problems that prevented him from breaking camp with
Bakersfield, as was planned.
Then he ran out of gas by the middle of July and had to be shut down for a
couple of weeks. He came back with a couple of relief appearances and a
handful of forgettable starts over the final four weeks of the season.
His 4.76 ERA in and of itself isn't necessarily anything to get worried
about, but the peripheral numbers -- and the trends -- were a bit worrisome
for me. Kiker's K/9 ratio fell to 8.21 from 10.46 in 2007. While he held
the MWL to a .239 batting average in 2007, Cal League hitters hit .292
against him in 2008. What's perhaps worse is that lefties pounded him to
the tune of a .321 / .400 / .479 line.
The one area where Kiker showed marked improvement was control of the strike
zone. He walked 3.83 per nine in 2007 and just 2.74 per nine in 2008.
At the same age, John Danks posted a 2.50 ERA for Bakersfield and held the
Cal League to a .228 batting average. Yes, that circuit is tough on
pitchers, but elite pitching prospects -- like Danks; like Derek Holland --
overcome it. Kiker didn't.
Kiker still has excellent stuff -- mid-90's cheese and a good curve -- and
the ability to become a significant contributor to a big league pitching
staff, but he's going to have to show up for work and get a lot done in 2009
if he's going to become the pitcher the Rangers believe he can become.
2009 Projection: Kiker should open the season in the Frisco rotation.
It's high time that he goes out and proves that he can withstand the rigors
of making every start over the course of a five month season. His inability
to do so thus far suggests that he may be destined for relief duty if and
when he reached the big leagues.
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