[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Rays Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Preview
How in the name of Paul Sorrento did this happen? And can it happen again? The
Rays, only one year ago arguably the least successful franchise in American
sport, are defending AL champions. Yet this Cinderella story has far greater
profundity than just a fluky encounter of Prince Charming with glass slipper;
its plot ingredients are more the stuff of enduring epic than fleeting fairy
tale. Consider what didn’t go right in 2008: The Rays featured neither a .300
hitter nor a top-10 home run guy; their presumptive best player (Carl Crawford)
had his worst season — and missed a third of it; 30-30 aspirant B.J. Upton
played hurt and hit only nine homers; their only power threats (Carlos Peña
and Evan Longoria) combined to sit out 63 games while potential star Rocco
Baldelli played but 28; and creaky closer Troy Percival couldn’t summon 50
innings and was unavailable for the postseason. All of this would suggest that
there is still a lot of air between the team’s accomplishments and its
ceiling. Cinderella the Sequel — though still a low-budget production — could
be a blockbuster.
Rotation
Perhaps not since the early 1990s Braves has there been a rotation of such
synchronized promise. As did Atlanta, Tampa Bay deploys tri-aces. James Shields
is the Maddux of the group — a winner with average velocity, but immaculate
control and a steely makeup. “He’s got one of the best change-ups I’ve ever
seen,” says Percival. “He doesn’t ever want to come out of the game.” Scott
Kazmir is the lefty of the triumvirate, but with far more octane than Glavine.
A two-time All-Star at 24, he’s still getting just “7” results out of a “10
” arm because high pitch counts (and a possibly chronic elbow problem) make
him a six-inning starter. ALCS MVP Matt Garza is Smoltz — sodden with stuff
and just learning how to apply it. Maddon calls the high-strung righthander a “
recovering emotionalist” for the way he’s re-channeled his impulses. The
Braves metaphor extends to phenom David Price, a Steve Avery-like power lefty
with a broader repertoire and hopefully longer shelf life. Pressed into
postseason relief in his first year of pro ball, he was stunning, holding
hitters to 2-for-20. Many clubs would be proud to call soft-tossing fifth
starter Andy Sonnanstine their No. 3.
Bullpen
For Maddon, a bullpen is far more about flexibility than rigid roles. The Rays’
relief corps is filthy with flexibility. Good thing, too, because they’ll
probably have to open the season with mix-and-match closers. All but one of
Percival’s 28 saves came before mid-August knee problems, and now back surgery
might delay his 2009 debut. Even when healthy, he’s more of a battler than the
assassin of yesteryear. Grant Balfour has the power tools to close — his 4.32
hits-per-nine innings were the sixth-lowest in history (50-plus IP) — but he
has only four career saves. J.P. Howell is Maddon’s Swiss Army knife, able to
get one out or nine against righties or lefties. Although Dan Wheeler has
closing experience, his repertoire and rubber arm are more suited for setup.
(He allowed eight homers — six of which decided the game — in the ninth
inning or later.) Only Brad Lidge and Hong-Chih Kuo had a lower NL relief ERA
than Joe Nelson (2.00), a shrewd free agent signing. Knuckle-scraping Chad
Bradford throws groundballs and drives right-handed batters batty. Lefty Lance
Cormier will assume the role vacated by Trever Miller’s departure at the end
of last season.
Middle infield
Shortstop Jason Bartlett was voted team MVP for the way he epoxied the infield
and generally played a textbook game of ball. He’ll work a pitcher, move a
runner, steal a base — whatever it takes. One year after setting a modern AL
rookie record for fielding percentage at third base, Aki Iwamura plied Gold
Glove-caliber defense at second. Though he strikes out a lot and his .349 OBP
was just average for a leadoff man, he practices all the same bat-handling
voodoo as Bartlett and — as verified by the “no pain, no gain” written in
Japanese on his glove — is a tough little sucker.
Corners
Peña is no Sorrento, and Longoria is no Bobby Smith. Fortunately. For the
first time in their history, the Rays have a set of legitimate
leather-flashing, horsehide-mashing corner infielders. First baseman Peña
represents the franchise’s greatest something-for-nothing discovery. He’s hit
77 homers with 223 RBIs since he was brought in non-rostered two springs ago.
He is the only Ray ever to win a Silver Slugger (2007) or a Gold Glove (’08).
Longoria will be the next. The unanimous AL Rookie of the Year was a minor
leaguer last April, an All-Star by July and the youngest player ever to hit six
home runs in October.
Outfield
For a championship team, the outfield was on the untidy side, but the Rays
think they’ve cleaned things up. Getting Crawford back to his old self is
thing one. The team’s most gifted athlete saw his steal total halved, never
really drove the ball and required postseason finger surgery. A .300 average
with 80 RBIs and 50 swipes is more his custom. Upton, another 2008
underperformer (until the postseason), is also post-op but hoping to reharness
the voltage in his bat that was eroded by a torn labrum. Like last year, there
will be multiple sets of footprints in right, where power prospect Matt Joyce,
the breathtakingly swift Fernando Perez and/or a pair of dangerous Gabes (Gross
and Kapler) comprise a Rubik’s Cube of platoon possibilities.
Catching
No Ray improved (or matured) more than Dioner Navarro. He shaped up a bit,
embraced the intangibles of his position, smothered opponents’ running games,
was out-hit (.295) among AL catchers by only Joe Mauer and made the All-Star
team. The only thing he didn’t do was clear fences, although his home run
totals could eventually settle in the teens.
DH/Bench
A lot of teams talk “versatility,” but it’s hard to imagine a roster with
more than this one. There may be as many as four switch-hitters, including a
pair of super-utility players (Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar) who’d give you a
good day’s work in the clubhouse laundry room if that’s what was required.
Both are dangerous from either side of the plate. The main dish off the hot
stove was Pat Burrell, signed as a designated hitter after manning left field
in Philly for nine seasons. Whichever right fielder(s) doesn’t start can help
Maddon checkmate situational end-game relief pitching.
Management
Owner Stu Sternberg has a defined vision, a progressive posture and the heart
of a fan. Maddon and 31-year-old GM Andrew Friedman are the reigning Manager
and Baseball Executive of the Year, respectively. Together they conjured a
pennant with the game’s second-lowest payroll and found creative ways to keep
key players under contractual control. Now the long-whining populace of the
area is out of excuses not to storm the turnstiles. If they don’t, the
relocation chatter might, tragically, begin anew.
Final analysis
The Rays must battle not only the maxim of staying there being harder than
getting there, but also two teams — the Red Sox and Yankees — in lockstep
with their talent. The club lacks Boston’s experience and it can’t match the
half-a-billion worth of star power imported into New York. This is, however, a
deeper and more agile club than its nemeses, and for better or worse, a far
younger one. With the latter comes potentially all the extremes of adolescence,
from the blissful brilliance of 2008 to the booby traps of complacency. Even if
they fall a little short, the Rays have come a long, long way, and they aren’t
retracing their steps anytime soon.
Beyond the Boxscore
Regression Analysis Sudden, dramatic progress is tough to sustain. Only five
teams have ever improved more than Tampa Bay (31 games) from one year to the
next. That quintet went 446–325 (.578) in their “leap” years, but then
retreated to 428–354 (.547) the season after that, with four posting a worse
record.
Hits & Misses The Rays have had a top-eight choice in the draft every year of
the past decade, but one shouldn’t buy the spin positing this as the main
reason they’re so good now. Only two of those picks (B.J. Upton and Evan
Longoria) were major contributors last year, while a third (Delmon Young)
returned great trade value. Beyond that were the likes of pitching busts Wade
Townsend, Jeff Niemann and Dewon Brazelton chosen, respectively, when Jay
Bruce, Nick Markakis and Stephen Drew were still on the board.
The New-Boy Network Oakland’s Billy Beane, posterboy of the new-wave GM
fraternity, posits an alternative explanation of the Rays success: “There has
been a significant increase in the brainpower of some clubs,” he told The
Sporting News. “The young men, (GM) Andrew Friedman and (president) Matt
Silverman running the (Rays) — they’re very bright guys. These are guys who
normally — maybe 10, 15 years ago — weren’t getting an opportunity in this
sport.”
Smoke on the Waterfront Plans for a spiffy new water’s-edge stadium are still
bumping around, but that situation could, as these things often do, be headed
to team financing vs. public financing limbo. The Rays have padlocked their
wallets, and if it’s ever going to get built, there’s going to have to be a
groundswell of support from the citizenry that’s not close to coalescing right
now.
Everybody Loved Ray...mona? The euphoria of the 2008 season didn’t last long
for one member of the team’s family. “Raymond” got fired. For reasons
allegedly unbeknownst to the human inside the team’s bushy blue mascot suit,
and on grounds about which the club would not elaborate, Kelly Frank (yes, that
was a girl in there the last five years) has been replaced.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Rays drafted the player with the highest ceiling
first overall in 2008. That would be shortstop Tim Beckham, who is a paradigm
prospect for an organization willing to roll the dice for the fattest potential
payoff. The 18-year-old Georgian has been called “kind of a combination of the
Uptons, Gary Sheffield, Orlando Hudson and Brandon Phillips” by scouting
director R.J. Harrison. The Rays’ Upton — B.J. — would be the closest
comparison. There is not a tool he lacks, but Beckham’s rawness and the team’
s lack of urgency to get him to St. Pete will mean a deliberate trip through
the system. Last summer, he went .246-2-14 with six steals in 48 low-minors
games.
2007 Top Pick — David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
Already something of a legend for his dramatic postseason debut. True
power-pitching ace-to-be.
2006 Top Pick — Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach State
Rocketed through system to be team’s cleanup man. MVP-type potential.
2005 Top Pick — Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice
Last No. 1 pick of the old administration — a reach who’s been hit hard by
injuries and batters alike.
2004 Top Pick — Jeff Niemann, RHP, Rice
Ready to stick in the bigs, but likely to top out as a No. 3 or 4. Could be a
spot starter, middle man in ’09.
2003 Top Pick — Delmon Young, OF, Adolfo Camarillo (CA) High School
A bull’s-eye pick because he brought Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in trade
from Minnesota. Enigmatic, but only 23.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
RHP Wade Davis (24)
One of the top five power-pitching prospects in the game. Less than a year from
readiness, but the rotation is crowded.
SS Reid Brignac (22)
Above-average pop and glove, but his path to St. Pete is blocked by Jason
Bartlett.
OF Desmond Jennings (21)
Potential leadoff man who is at least two years away because he was hurt most
of 2008.
OF Fernando Perez (25)
Team’s Minor League Player of the Year. Modest upside with bat, but will forge
a career from glove and sprinter’s speed.
LHP Jake McGee (22)
Few harder-throwing southpaws, but has been set back a year by Tommy John
surgery.
Statistician
29 >> Teams that outspent the Rays on salaries, 2007-08.
0 >> Teams that outspent the Rays to sign draft choices, 2007-08.
18 >> Players on the World Series roster acquired during the three-year
reign of the current administrative regime.
25 >> Teams with higher attendance than the AL champs last season.
22 >> Years since a team (1986 Mets) prior to the 2008 Rays placed three
under-age-25 players on the All-Star team.
.260 >> Batting average by the Rays last year, the lowest by an American League
playoff team since 2003.
3 >> Socks, shirts and undershorts worn by superstitious J.P. Howell every
time he pitches.
2 >> Players off last year’s roster (first baseman Dan Johnson,
right-handed pitcher Scott Dohmann) who signed to play in Japan for
2009.
Difference Maker
The Rays’ 4.78 runs per game in 2008 was precisely the league average, and
with only two hitters who supplied more than 13 home runs on the roster as of
New Year’s Day, GM Andrew Friedman made his move. By signing Pat Burrell and
his .950 career OPS against lefties to a two-year contract, he instantly
balanced a lineup that last year ranked 12th in the AL (.726) in that category.
Burrell has no business in Tampa Bay’s jackrabbit outfield, but he gladly
accepted the DH job to play near his Clearwater home.
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