[情報] The Double-Edged Sword of Blaming Pl …

看板Spurs (聖安東尼奧馬刺)作者stan90203 (鯰魚賢)時間16年前 (2010/03/16 20:42)推噓16(16推 0噓 20→)

留言36則, 15人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/yk6hxof by BlaseE on Mar 15, 2010 3:53 PM CDT in Analysis The Spurs currently sit at 39-25. Last year we finished with 54 wins. Well that pace would have us at 42-22 through our 62 games. So 3 games going the other way....that's not a lot, but I had so many more excuses for last season's record. I mean if Manu and Tony and TD had been healthy, we could have won 65 (more or less random number) games last year. 馬刺目前的戰績是39勝25負。去年我們最終拿下了54勝，相當於現在64場比賽中應該獲得 42勝22負的成績，表示我們多錯失了三場比賽。儘管這看起來並不算多，但我認為去年的成績應不僅如此。意思是說，如果Manu、Tony和TD都保持健康，馬刺去年應該可以獲得65 勝左右。 Clearly we are underachieving yet most statistical analysis shows the team as solid. Hollinger has us as 5th right now yet we are 11th in the league standings. All of this bothered me so come see the results of me searching for who is at fault for our record after the jump.... It's not Pop....to me. 許多分析預測我們應該很強，但我們表現得不夠好。 Before I get started I want to explain something, my title. Unlike some people who are readily searching for solutions to the roster next season, I still believe that we can win and win big this year. So I am eager to see how RJ or Bonner has impacted our record, but I am also eager to see how that may play into our playoff success. So as much as I am pointing the finger and calling out these players. I am in no way saying we trade, cut or move on from any of them. I love our team and I love our players. So my question is not all Winston-48MoH-like in terms of "who do we need to play?" but rather "what can this player do in the rotation Pop has set to win more games for us?". Who is shooting us out of games? Who won't take their shots in losses? Who isn't distributing the ball in losses? Who isn't rebounding? Who is taking too many threes? Who gets the point? 我並不像某些人就下一季的球員名單尋求解決之道，反而認為馬刺還是能在今年獲得極大的勝利。因此我急於觀察RJ或Bonner是怎麼對馬刺的紀錄造成衝擊的，但也渴望知道他們的表現對我們季後賽的成功有何影響。現在我要一一點名每個球員，但我絕不討論誰該被交易，誰該走路。我愛馬刺，我愛這些球員。 So I present the following table: 請看下表： SPURS 2010 WIN-LOSS SPLIT DIFFERENTIALS PER 48 MINUTES AS OF 3/15/2010 WITH % MIN PTS FGA FG% 3PA 3P% FTA REB AST PRA PTS/FGA Duncan 36-25 0.59 -4.8 0.8 1.0 2.1 0.0 -5.0 -1.6 1.8 1.3 3.9 0.8 Parker 31-19 0.62 -1.4 1.7 2.0 0.9 -0.3 29.5 -0.5 0.4 2.4 4.5 0.9 Jefferson 28-25 0.60 -1.4 5.8 2.0 7.6 -0.1 17.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 8.0 2.9 Hill 39-25 0.61 0.2 0.9 -2.2 6.9 -1.7 9.9 1.2 1.8 1.4 4.1 -0.4 Ginobili 35-24 0.59 -1.0 3.5 -0.9 9.9 -1.2 8.2 1.0 -0.2 1.6 4.9 -3.9 McDyess 36-24 0.60 1.0 2.6 0.1 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.0 5.9 26.0 Bogans 39-23 0.63 4.2 7.0 1.6 16.3 2.1 23.5 1.1 0.8 0.9 8.7 4.4 Mason 37-24 0.61 -0.2 3.6 0.6 10.2 -1.4 6.8 -0.5 0.9 1.3 5.8 6.0 Blair 39-25 0.61 2.9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.0 0.8 2.2 0.8 Bonner 29-18 0.62 1.0 6.7 0.9 7.5 1.5 22.1 1.0 -4.0 -0.3 2.4 7.4 AVERAGE 0.61 0.1 3.2 0.4 7.1 -0.1 11.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 5.0 4.5 ** WITHOUT的部分不影響閱讀，礙於排版不列出 ** PRA=PTS+REB+AST ** 此表顯示馬刺球員在球隊贏球時和輸球時，每48分鐘的數據差異。如Bogans的PTS是7.0，表示馬刺贏球時他的表現會比輸球時每48分鐘多得7.0分。而Blair是少得0.5分，表示他無論是輸球或贏球的表現都是很穩定的。 Now I'm going to pull a half Varner. I'll point to some conclusions from the table, but hopefully you, the intelligent reader, can use the table and draw more in the comments. I changed it to a half Varner because I wrote more than I thought I was. 接下來我將依據這個表格做出我的結論。 Talking Points and Conclusions Injuries: Those records without Bonner or Parker. They aren't far from the season percentages, but 13 losses without either of them accounts for over half our losses. It's also worth noting Bonner played some very crappy minutes and some very crappy basketball coming back from his hand injury. His numbers are way up now. 馬刺有超過半數的敗場─13場輸球的比賽和Bonner或Parker任一人因傷缺陣脫不了關係。但有一點必須特別提出來，自從Bonner的手傷復原歸隊後，他有些表現顯得沒什麼價值可言。 Hill and Manu: I'm going to group them together here, but why are Hill and Manu taking 3.1 more shotsminutes but scoring 4.4 less points per 48 minutes in our losses. Hill is taking too many threes in our losses and Manu is shooting 10% lower from the field. 我將Hill和Manu歸成一組討論。在馬刺輸球的時候，兩人每48分鐘多投了3.1次，卻少得了 4.4分。此時Hill投了過多的三分，而Manu的命中率低了10%。 But on the positive note, both are playing out of this world recently. Maintaining their momentum could be the key to getting a good seed and succeeding in the playoffs. I, along with others, suggested Parker take his turn as "Manu "and be the 6th man. It works better with the acquisition of RJ. It puts Parker logging more minutes with Duncan (one of the last of the starters off the court usually), Mason, Bonner, and Bogans. In other words, the shooters and line up type Parker is used to playing with and dominating for. It just makes simple sense to me. 從積極面看，這兩人最近打得太好了。想在季後賽獲得勝利，我們要想辦法維持這股能量。我和其他人一樣會建議Paker可以考慮和Manu交換一下第六人的角色，這對RJ是有幫助的，且有望讓Parker和Duncan(其中一個最晚下場的先發)、Mason、Bonner和Bogans搭配更久的時間。換句話說，這些射手習慣和Parker搭配。 Duncan, Parker and Blair are pretty consistent scorers in wins and losses. Duncan loses some rebounds and Parker loses some assists, but they shoot about the same though. Duncan amazingly gets more free throws in our losses. Please no Hack-a-Duncan! Duncan、Parker和Blair在輸贏的比賽中都是很穩定的得分點。Duncan的籃板數和Parker 的助攻數雙雙下降了些，但在投射方面並沒有什麼改變。Duncan很令人訝異地在輸球的比賽中投進了較多的罰球，所以請別用「駭石佛戰術」！ In terms of going forward, I was disappointed to see Duncan and Parker playing more minutes in losses, but it makes sense. It's easier to pull them for near outlier type minutes in games like the Clippers one than it is to throw in the towel. To quote one of my favorite songs ever, "for all the wars I've come to know, it's punches pulled not towels thrown in." The Spurs are more likely to hold back in a blowout than give up on a fight. Even with that said, you see Duncan and Manu under tight rotation control. In the playoffs, Pop [in his play calling and rotations] and Duncan, Parker and Manu [in their minutes and efforts] won't be pulling punches. 我不樂見Duncan和Parker在輸球的場次打比較久，但這是有意義的。以先前對快艇大幅領先的比賽為例，將Duncan和Parker留在板凳上會比在大幅落後時冰住他們好受得多。馬刺不會放棄比賽，只是保留戰力。比起提早投降，馬刺更可能在勝利時稍作收手。Duncan和 Manu上場時間的控制是非常嚴格的。而在季後賽，波波、Duncan、Parker和Manu是不會有所保留的。 Blair is the only player in the rotation that shoots better and scores more per 48 minutes in games we lost. Without researching it, I know our win loss record points more wins to sub-.500 and more losses to +.500 teams. This could mean Blair is equally efficient against good and bad opponents. His rebounding drop is about equal to Duncan's but less forgivable. Blair是唯一在輪值名單中，於輸球時每48分鐘的投籃效率更好且得分更多的球員。我知道馬刺對付0.500勝率以下的球員打得比較好，這表示Blair面對無論是面對強隊或是弱隊，效率都保持得很好。Blair的贏球時的籃板數比輸球時少(2.0)，減少的量大約和Duncan (1.8)差不多，卻比Duncan更難以獲得寬恕。 (其實此作者沒提到Dice輸贏籃板差更多，有2.3個) Live or Die by the Three: First, ignore Parker's 3 point percentage differential as his attempts are super low. He attempts more of them when we are losing, but he shoots them so infrequently that missing clutch ones he has to take really hurts him. 勝敗在三分線上：首先忽略Parker的三分命中率，因為他幾乎沒在投三分的。我們輸球的比賽中，他投了較多的三分球。但也因為他實在很少在投，容易錯失關鍵時候的三分就成了致命傷。 Mason, Manu, and Hill all shoot worse from three in our losses, but its in the 8-10% range. They are also all taking more threes in our losses. A lot more threes. By volume, their shots might be keeping their percentage higher than it should be, or defenses are forcing them into bad shots. 在我們輸球的比賽中Mason、Manu和Hill投了比平時多很多的三分球，但命中率卻很低，大約少了8-10%的命中率。要投大量的三分就應確保高命中率，否則對手的防守會讓三分出手機會變得很差。 Bonner, Bogans, and Jefferson are far worse. They shoot between 17.3-23.5% worse from three in our losses. Jefferson takes about the same number of attempts. His percentage bothers me, but I don't like him taking 3's to begin with. Bogans and Bonner, on the other hand, are taking 3.6 less 3 points attempts per 48 minutes in our losses. Those are the shots we need these guys to take. Bogans and Bonner lead the team in scoring differential between wins and losses. Both are at around 7.0 more points per 48 minutes in games we've won. That is disgusting. You can debate if this is symptomatic or the cause of a problem. I like to think it works both ways. Bonner、Bogans和Jefferson更慘，每每我們輸球，他們的三分命中率下降了大約 17.3-23.5%。Jefferson投射的次數頗固定的。另一方面，Bogans和Bonner在輸球時三分球投射次數平均每48分鐘少了3.6次。他們少投的這幾球，正是我們需要的。這兩人在我們輸贏時的得分差是最多的，贏球時大約是每48分鐘7分左右。你們會認為這可能是具有指標象徵性或是問題的來源，我認為兩者都是。 Dice: Dice takes long 2's for the most part. In games we win, he is shooting 10% better. More than that though, he scores 2.6 more points per 48 minutes on the same number of shots. Dice is massively less effective scoring in our losses. I've heard rumors that he is Horry-esque in terms of holding back for the stretch-run/playoffs. If that is true, that will be a HUGE plus. Dice大多是投遠距離的兩分球。贏球時他的命中率高了10%，每48分鐘在相同得出手次數下可以多得2.6分；輸球時他的效率則是慘兮兮。有謠言指出，他是像Horry那樣的季後賽先生。若謠傳屬實，這肯定是個超大利多。 Jefferson: In wins, he averages 5.8 more points, 1.1 more rebounds, and 1.1 more assists per 48 minutes. He plays the third most minutes on the team behind Duncan and Parker so his 8.0 PTS+REB+AST is far more impactful than Bogan's 8.7. People are quick to blame RJ for our record but the fact is that he is far better in our victories creating such large differentials. This is the silver lining. It means he can be so much more than those terrible loss performances, or to put it another word, he do what RC and Pop traded for him to do. Jefferson在贏球時平均每48分鐘可多得5.8分，多抓1.1個籃板，多送出1.1次助攻。他是馬刺上場時間第三多的球員，僅次於Duncan和Parker。所以他8.0 pts+reb+ast (5.8+1.1+1.1=8.0)的表現對馬刺的衝擊遠大於Bogans的8.7。人們很快地就把矛頭指向 Jefferson，但事實上他在贏球時的表現和平時差距是很大的。這真是黑暗中的一道曙光，因為這表示他可以做得更好。換句話說，做到當初交易他過來時對他的期望。 Remember, he has a good amount of playoff experience and isn't in the athletic decline (sorry) Dice is. He knows he needs to step it up now and then go even further in the playoffs. I am with everyone else in being disappointed with Jefferson thus far, but he may also be our playoff savior. So as much as you are prone to blame him, know that he will be getting heavy minutes in the playoffs and his success will be our success. 記住，Jefferson有非常豐富的季後賽經驗，而且並沒不是處於體能衰退期(很抱歉，Dice 正在衰退)。Jefferson知道他得站出來，在季後賽裡更努力些。我和大家一樣，對他的表現失望萬分，但他卻也可能是馬刺季後賽的救星。因此，就如他很容易成為眾矢之的，也別忘了他可能在季後賽打得更好，他的復活不僅僅是自己的勝利，同時也將是馬刺的勝利。 I plan to do another Standings Perspective (with a twist of projection) soon, but I'll probably wait until at least after the Orlando game. If we win @ Miami and @ Orlando back to back, we will reach 9-1 in our L10 for the first time this season. Have faith and believe the Spurs are pulling a Spurs by finishing far stronger than they started. Thanks for reading and GO SPURS GO! -- 我愛馬刺，我愛這些球員 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.166.70.130

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