[情報] fangraphs Top 15 Prospects
The Chicago White Sox system continues to be one of the weakest in the
Majors. The front office and ownership cannot fault anyone but themselves for
failing to invest in the amateur draft or the international market. On the
plus side, the organization has lucked into a few interesting prospects like
Addison Reed and Dylan Axelrod. Chicago doesn’t have a true No. 1 prospect,
although Reed has value as a potential high-leverage reliever who is close to
MLB ready – and the recently acquired Nestor Molina has a higher ceiling
than most of the existing players in the Sox system.
1. Addison Reed, RHP
BORN: Dec. 27, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, San Diego State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: It was a whirlwind season for Reed, who opened the year as
an obscure, yet intriguing, pitcher. A teammate of Stephen Strasburg‘s at
San Diego State, you have to wonder if there’s something in the water there…
as both pitchers went undrafted out of high school before seeing big-time
velocity jumps in college. Reed pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and
can touch the upper-90s. He also has a slider that’s developing into a plus
pitch.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Reed pitched at five levels in 2011, starting as low as low-A
ball and ending in the Majors. It was a crazy ride for the pitcher that
posted strikeout rates of 11.80 or higher at each stop. He also showed
above-average control with walk rates below 2.00 BB/9 at each stop – save
for one (2.61 BB/9 in 20.2 IP).
YEAR AHEAD: All told, Reed walked just 14 batters with 111 strikeouts in 78.1
innings in the minors. He basically has nothing left to prove in the minors
and could very well be a key piece of the Sox bullpen in 2012. One thing he
needs to watch out for, though, is the home run. He allowed just four all
year but three came in triple-A and the Majors as his ground-ball rate
diminished.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Reed has the demeanor to succeed as the go-to high-leverage
reliever for Chicago and it was his emergence that likely lead to the trade
of Sergio Santos to Toronto (for No. 2 prospect Nestor Molina). If Chicago so
chooses, Reed and Molina could be a dominating late-game pair – although
Molina has potential as a big league starter.
2. Nestor Molina, RHP
BORN: Jan. 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 non-drafted free agent (Toronto)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: I came very close to ranking Molina No. 1 overall in the
White Sox system. As a Jay, he would have ranked in the six to eight range –
which tells you a little bit about the depth of the two systems. Some online
publications have referred to Molina as a “control pitcher” which has a
negative connotation and implies that his stuff is below average. While the
Venezuelan has plus control, his stuff is at least average – if not better.
He has an 87-93 mph fastball and a potentially plus splitter that is his
out-pitch. He also has a decent slider.
YEAR IN REVIEW: When his breaking ball improved to the point where the Jays
organization felt it could be at least MLB average, Molina was moved into the
starting rotation for good in 2011. He had a breakout season and reached
double-A. The 22-year-old hurler spent the majority of the season in high-A
where he posted a 2.45 FIP (2.58 ERA) in 108.1 innings. He showed his
outstanding control by posting a walk rate of 1.16 BB/9. Molina also sent a
large number of batters back to the dugout shaking their heads (9.55 K/9).
YEAR AHEAD: Molina received five late-season starts in double-A and showed
that he was far from over-matched: 0.47 FIP, 0.82 BB/9, 13.50 K/9. He
probably needs about half a season at double-A before moving up to triple-A
and could be ready for the Majors by the end of the season. Chicago tends to
be overly aggressive with some of its pitchers so I wouldn’t be shocked to
see Molina in triple-A to begin 2012.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Molina has the makings of a No. 3 starter at the MLB level.
The big question for him is his durability. Originally an outfielder, he was
moved to the bump permanently in 2008 and has pitched more than 100 innings
just once (2011). There is also some concern over his delivery and that,
unless it gets smoothed out, he’ll be a high-leverage reliever at the MLB
level.
3. Keenyn Walker, OF
BORN: Aug. 12, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, Arizona JC
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: The Sox top amateur pick in 2011 with the 47th overall
selection (supplemental 1st round), Walker is the type of toolsy athlete that
always attracts the organization’s attention. He is very raw, though. Walker
projects to develop into a plus defender with above-average speed but his hit
tool is surrounded by question marks. He probably won’t develop more than
gap power.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Walker hit well in Rookie ball but was rushed up to low-A and
he struggled badly. The big knock on him has always been his lack of contact
and he struck out at a rate of 35.6 K% in 162 low-A at-bats. He stole 21
bases in his debut, between the two levels, but he was also caught nine times.
YEAR AHEAD: Walker might benefit from a little extra time in extended spring
training but he’ll probably receive an assignment to low-A ball. Expect him
to struggle mightily with the bat, although his speed may help him receive
some BABIP-aid. A switch-hitter, it might be in the organization’s best
interests to have him hit just one way to allow accelerated development (He
hit .206 vs RHPs, .273 vs LHP in ’11).
CAREER OUTLOOK: For good or bad, the outfielder reminds me of former No. 1
draft pick Jared Mitchell. While his career was derailed by injury, it
remains to be seen if Walker can overcome the huge obstacles that he faces in
realizing his full athletic potential on the baseball diamond.
4. Trayce Thompson, OF
BORN: March 15, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 2nd round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 9th
SCOUTING REPORT: Thompson is another typical Sox hitting prospect: Full of
projection but short on ‘now-talent.’ The outfielder is a solid fielder but
he’s expected to eventually slide from center field to one of the corner
spots. As a hitter he has big-time power but struggles with breaking balls
and lengthens his swing too much.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The 20-year-old returned to low-A in 2011 after missing much
of ’10 due to a broken thumb. He slugged 24 home runs – good for third in
the South Atlantic League – but he also struck out 172 times – 20 more
times than anyone else in the league. On the plus side, he does take some
walks (10.1 BB%).
YEAR AHEAD: Thompson will likely move up to high-A ball and will look to
solve his nemesis: the breaking ball. Expect him to spend the entire year in
high-A ball smoothing out the considerable number of rough edges in his game.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former second round draft pick has a lot of work to do to
reach his potential as a big league slugger who will provide at least average
defense. Thompson will probably never hit for a high average and he will
likely always rack up high strikeout totals.
5. Dylan Axelrod, RHP
BORN: July 30, 1985
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 30th round, U of California-Irvine (by San Diego)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Axelrod will enter his rookie season in the Majors as an
over-aged 26-year-old, but he’s come a long way from modest beginnings.
Although he opened the year much higher than Addison Reed, Axelrod was even
further removed from prospect legitimacy. The right-hander offers
average-at-best fastball velocity but he commands a four-pitch repertoire.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Axelrod split the year between double-A and triple-A before
receiving a late-season taste of Major League action. He succeeded in the
Majors by keeping hitters off balance by commanding and working off the
fastball.
YEAR AHEAD: The right-hander has a good shot at opening the year in the Sox’
s starting rotation if the club trades John Danks or Gavin Floyd – likely as
the fourth or fifth starter. He’s only been pitching out of the starting
rotation for two seasons so durability is a bit of a question mark –
especially after a big innings jump between 2010 and ’11 (~60 IP).
CAREER OUTLOOK: Axelrod has a modest ceiling but his four-pitch mix, control
and pitchability should allow him to succeed as a No. 4 starter – especially
on a second division team. He may eventually wind up in the bullpen as a
middle reliever if he finds his way onto a playoff-caliber team.
6. Jacob Petricka, RHP
BORN: June 5, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 2nd round, Indiana State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 6th
SCOUTING REPORT: Petricka is one of my favorite Sox prospects. He was a
college reliever who has been given an opportunity to pitch in the starting
rotation… with mixed results. He’s probably best-suited for relief work in
the Majors. The right-hander has a three-pitch mix but his best pitch is far
and away his low-to-mid-90s fastball. He also has a curveball and a changeup,
though neither shows plus potential yet. Petricka’s heater plays up in the
bullpen and has hit the upper-90s in the past.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Petricka threw very well in low-A ball to begin the year,
posting a 1.83 FIP and 10.37 strikeout rate. However, he struggled upon
promotion to high-A. His FIP rose to 3.70 and his strikeout rate plummeted to
6.12 as he failed to consistently command his pitches. Petricka moved to the
bullpen for the Arizona Fall League but struggled a bit, allowing 16 hits and
10 walks in 16.1 innings of work.
YEAR AHEAD: Along with tantalizing fastball velo out of the ‘pen, Petricka
also produces above-average ground-ball rates, making him even more
attractive as a late-game reliever. He’ll likely move up to double-A in 2012
and the Sox will face a tough decision on his ultimate big league role.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Petricka could – and should – give the Sox one more
dominating relief prospect to go with Addison Reed and potentially Nestor
Molina (although he has more chance of sticking in the rotation than
Petricka). If he begins the ’12 season pitching out of the bullpen, Petricka
could reach the Majors by the end of August.
7. Tyler Saladino, SS
BORN: July 20, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 7th round, Oral Roberts U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Saladino is a player that you don’t hear much about but he’
s got a lot of potential – which stands out in a weak system. He has just
enough power to get himself in trouble by extending his swing (and strike
zone) but not enough that he’s going to hit more than 15 homers at the MLB
level. Saladino has good speed but does run much on the base paths.
Defensively, he has a strong arm and good range so he should stick at
shortstop.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Saladino spent the entire 2011 season in high-A ball and
produced a solid .864 OPS, and showed an above-average power output with an
ISO rate of .232. His walk rate of 11% was impressive and it was nice to see
his strikeout rate dip below 20% for the first time in his career.
YEAR AHEAD: After a solid Arizona Fall League performance where he hit .286
with seven walks (but also 17 Ks) in 19 games, Saladino is surely headed for
double-A in 2012. He’s kind of stuck between profiles right now; he needs to
decide if he’s going to focus on the type of game plan that benefits a No. 2
hole hitter or he’s got to commit to punishing the ball for gap power as
more of a No. 7 hole hitter.
CAREER OUTLOOK: As mentioned, Saladino’s future is up in the air a bit. It’
s easy to see him playing in the big leagues but his profile could go a
couple different ways.
8. Eduardo Escobar, SS
BORN: Sept. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 28th round, Maryland CC
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Escobar is a much different shortstop prospect in comparison
to Saladino. Escobar is all glove at this point and is probably a future No.
9 hitter at the MLB level. He is a gifted fielder who uses his good speed and
quickness to produce plus range. He has an average arm and could eventually
move to second base, perhaps to make room for Saladino at short. A
switch-hitter, he typically shows more from the left side.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Escobar held true to his scouting report at triple-A in 2011.
He hit for a hollow average, showing no power (.088 ISO) and no patience (5%
walk rate). He also received his first (brief) taste of MLB action but had
just seven at-bats.
YEAR AHEAD: Escobar could probably play at the MLB level right now but he’s
not going to start over Alexi Ramirez. As a result, he’ll either be pushed
to a backup role for the Sox or, more likely, head back to triple-A and wait
for an injury to occur.
CAREER OUTLOOK: There is no sign of an opportunity for Escobar to start at
shortstop anytime soon in Chicago so he’ll either be trade bait or end up
filling a utility role for the club. Either way he offers enough potential to
put forth a respectable big league career.
9. Jared Mitchell, OF
BORN: Oct. 13, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (23rd overall), Louisiana State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd
SCOUTING REPORT: Mitchell entered pro ball extremely raw for a college player
and then he missed all of 2010 due to injury. He put forth a very
disappointing season in ’11. When he’s right, Mitchell is solid defensive
center fielder with good range, although his arm is below average. At the
plate, he has gap power. He’s lost his feel for the strike zone.
YEAR IN REVIEW: At high-A ball, Mitchell failed to hit for average, he didn’
t run much, he struck out at a rate of almost 34% and his defense took a step
back. On the plus side he showed show gap power (.155 ISO) and took some
walks (9.6%). Mitchell hit just .134 in 23 August games, so conditioning
could have been an issue in ’11.
YEAR AHEAD: The 2012 season is going to be huge for the outfielder. He’ll
likely head back to high-A and needs to get off to a hot start so he can
reach double-A at some point in the second half. Mitchell just needs to stay
healthy and get at-bats under his belt.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Time is running out for Mitchell, now 23. He’s going to be
repeating high-A ball and remains raw. He has considerable athletic potential
but the window is closing.
10. Hector Santiago, LHP
BORN: Dec. 16, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 30th round – Florida community college
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: It’s amazing the difference a pitch can make. Santiago
added a rarely used screwball to his arsenal for the 2011 season and it gave
him a much-needed, reliable off-speed pitch. He moved into the starting
rotation for the first time in his career and flourished. His fastball sits
in the low-to-mid 90s and he also features an occasional slider.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Santiago began the season back in high-A for the third
straight season but he convinced the minor league staff that a change needed
to be made after eight starts. He then made another 15 starts at double-A and
received a call to the Majors where he appeared in two games and allowed just
one hit in 5.1 innings.
YEAR AHEAD: Santiago will probably head to triple-A for a bit but could
challenge for a spot in the starting rotation in injuries occur in spring
training. He’s a nice insurance policy for 2012 and he could use the time in
triple-A to improve his slider.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The left-hander has the potential to develop into a No. 4
starter at the big league level – possibly as high as a No. 3 if he learns
to rely on his breaking ball a little more.
The Next Five
11. Charlie Leesman, LHP: Leesman was one player I had my eye on in case the
Sox left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s a personal favorite of
mine as a left-hander with good velocity, solid control and above-average
ground-ball rates. With a strong pitcher’s frame, he could develop into a
reliable innings eater at the MLB level – especially if he can improve his
control.
12. Brandon Short, OF: Short comes up a little… short as a potential big
league regular but he could make a solid fourth outfielder in the Majors. He
has some speed (but he doesn’t run well), a little power but his contact is
inconsistent and his defense is not the best. He’s wilted in the second half
of the year for two straight seasons so perhaps a part-time role will agree
with him. If Short can continue to add polish to his game, though, he could
be a useful big leaguer.
13. Gregory Infante, RHP: Infante has a bowling ball fastball that averages
out around 95 mph, as well as a curveball and changeup. He needs to improve
the command of his fastball, which will help his other pitches play up. The
right-hander has the ceiling of an eighth-inning reliever – and possible
closer if he makes the necessary adjustments. He has a chance to break camp
with the big club in 2012.
14. Jhan Marinez, RHP: Marinez and Oswaldo Martinez (considered in 11-15
range) were both acquired in the Ozzie Guillen “trade.” Marinez is your
typical White Sox pitcher in the sense that he’s a hard thrower… but doesn’
t always know where the ball is going. He had a breakout season in 2010 but
took a step back in ’11 when his control deserted him and he posted a walk
rate of 6.52 BB/9. He has the potential to be an eighth-inning stalwart.
15. Scott Snodgress, LHP: With a solid pitcher’s frame, this Stanford alum
has an above-average fastball for a lefty (go figure, for a Sox draft pick)
but his velocity is inconsistent, ranging anywhere from 88-94 mph. He also
has a curveball and a changeup – and both show potential. The lefty is raw
for a college draft pick so the organization will have to be patient.
SLEEPER ALERT: Jeff Soptic, RHP: Selected in the third round of the 2011
draft out of a small Kansas community college, Soptic raises eyebrows with
his (You guessed it…) outstanding fastball velocity that reportedly hits
100-101 mph. He also has an inconsistent slider. His command and control are
both below average; Soptic is a massive project but one with a huge reward at
the end if everything works out.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-chicago-white-sox/
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