[轉錄] Pujols, A-Rod also taking aim at 700 homers
From: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/bbw/2006-05-24-700-club_x.htm
Pujols, A-Rod also taking aim at 700 homers
By Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY
Without blinking, Barry Bonds will tell you who will come along next to
join the 700 home run club.
"Alex Rodriguez," he says. "He'll be there. And there'll be others. It
ain't like I'll be the last one. Records are meant to be broken. I'll be
cheering them on."
The 700-homer club has three members: Hank Aaron (755), Babe Ruth (714)
and Bonds (714).
Reds center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., whom Aaron once anointed as the one
to break his record, has the second-highest home run total among active
players with 540. No one, including Griffey, believes he still has a
chance. He's 36 years old and hasn't played a full season since 1999,
missing most of April with a knee injury. He also hasn't hit 40 home runs
in a season since 2000.
"I thought Griffey years ago would be the one to break all of the
records," Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Feller says. "But his chances are gone
now."
But there are at least four players who have a legitimate shot to hit 700
homers and challenge Aaron's mark: the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez (30 years
old; 438 career home runs), the Cardinals' Albert Pujols (26; 223), the
Braves' Andruw Jones (29; 310) and the Reds' Adam Dunn (26; 173).
"You've got to like Alex Rodriguez's chances," Feller says. "And if not
him, it'll be somebody else. Just look at all of the homers now."
Baseball may have steroid testing, and amphetamines are banned in the
game, but the way the ball is flying out of ballparks these days, home
runs seem here to stay.
There were 845 homers hit in April, the third-highest total for that
month in the expansion era (beginning in 1961). Home runs jumped by 27.5%
from the 663 hit last April. Pujols set the major league record with 14
homers in April. The Rangers' Kevin Mench hit a home run in seven
consecutive days. The Brewers hit five home runs in one inning.
There were 2.3 homers hit per game in April. If this trend continues, the
season will have the second-highest home run rate during the expansion
era, surpassed only by the 2000 season when 2.344 homers were hit,
according to the Elias Sports Bureau. (There have been 2.05 homers hit
per game in May, according to Elias.)
No one has been hotter than Pujols, who has a major league-leading 22
homers.
"I'm not a home run hitter," Pujols recently told reporters. "I'm a
line-drive hitter with power. All I try to do is just hit for average,
and hopefully, if I put a good swing on it, the ball's going to go out of
the park."
But Pujols is on pace to hit about 81 home runs this year. He already has
more home runs than any other player in the National League since his
2001 debut, including Bonds.
"You ask me, and Pujols will be the next Bonds," Twins center fielder
Torii Hunter says. "If he stays healthy, he may break all of the records.
It's funny, the guy is the greatest player in the game right now and
they're still pitching to him."
That will change, Bonds says. Pujols walked a career-high 97 times last
season, and he has already walked 36 times this season.
"He's going to be walked a ton," Bonds says. "If he were in the American
League, it would be different."
Yet, to Pujols' advantage, he has power-hitting third baseman Scott Rolen
hitting behind him.
"That's the key — you've got to get pitches to hit," says Brewers Hall
of Famer Robin Yount, who hit 251 homers.
That's why, Yount says, if Pujols breaks the all-time home run record, it
may belong to Rodriguez.
"To have a chance at the record, you've got to be on a team where they'll
pay to give you protection, and as long as he stays with the Yankees,
George (Steinbrenner) will always have the money to find someone to
protect him," Yount says of Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has averaged 46 home runs the last eight seasons. And he has
missed only eight games since 2000.
Jones hit a major league-leading 51 home runs last year. Yet it was the
first time he ever hit more than 40. Was it an aberration?
Dunn hit more homers during his first five seasons (158) than any other
player in Reds history but Frank Robinson (165). He hit 86 homers between
2004 and 2005.
"If he could ever put the ball in play more," Brewers manager Ned Yost
says, "good gosh. He just needs to make more contact."
Bonds, of course, isn't done playing yet, either. But he has an arthritic
right knee, tender elbow and seemingly the weight of the world on his
back.
Bonds homered once every 6.5 at-bats in 2001, a ratio Ruth never
approached. He still was hitting a homer once every 8.3 at-bats in 2004,
a rate still better than Ruth's. Yet this year, he has six homers in 99
at-bats — a rate of one every 16.5 at-bats.
Bonds, who told USA TODAY this spring that he would retire at the
season's conclusion, now says he won't make up his mind until August or
September. He probably would have to play at least through the All-Star
break in 2007 to pass Aaron.
If Bonds hits 25 homers this year and next, it'll take him 150 games into
the 2007 season.
"I wouldn't put anything past him," Cubs broadcaster and former third
baseman Ron Santo says. "When I see him at his age, and the talent he
still has, he can still drive the ball out of the park. He'll keep
hitting homers as long as he plays, but with that knee, no one knows when
it will all end."
Who's next?
Players with the best shot at 755 home runs:
Barry Bonds, age 41
Home runs 714
Homer average
per full season 37*
Projected year
to reach 755: 2006 (at age 44)**
Alex Rodriguez, age 30
Home runs 438
Homer average
per full season 42
Projected year
to reach 755: 2014 (at age 36)
Albert Pujols, age 26
Home runs 223
Homer average
per full season 40
Projected year
to reach 755: 2020 (at age 40)
Andruw Jones, age 29
Home runs 310
Homer average
per full season 33
Projected year
to reach 755: 2019 (at age 42)
Adam Dunn, age 26
Home runs 173
Homer average
per full season 35
Projected year
to reach 755: 2023 (at age 43)
*Full seasons based on seasons in which they played at least 102 games
**Bonds, who played in only 14 games last season because of injury, has
hinted he might retire after the season
— Bob Nightengale
Posted 5/24/2006 12:17 PM ET
--
You always knew. "But I, being poor, have only my dreams.
I have spread my dreams under your feet.
Tread softly because you tread on my dreams." I assume you dream, Preston.
--
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