Re: [新聞] Projecting career stats is an inexac …

看板A-Rod作者lakerbuster (nothing in excess)時間18年前 (2007/08/06 17:49)推噓9(9推 0噓 8→)

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在慶祝500轟的同時，這篇不是要潑冷水... 如同文章標題說的"inexact"，數學計算在運動場上不是絕對的但大家還是可以看看這篇有趣的文章～有錯請指正 ___________________________________________________________________________ Projecting career stats is an inexact science 預測職業生涯數據是一門不精確的科學 By Jayson Stark ESPN.com August 4, 2007 Here at ESPN, we're pretty sure we've put Pedro Gomez's face on your TV screens enough times to alert you to the fact that some guy named Barry Bonds is about to hit a fairly momentous home run. 在ESPN的節目上，Pedro Gomez（ESPN記者）的臉孔已經出現過無數次，提醒您有位名叫 Barry Bonds的老兄快要擊出一支了不得的全壘打了。 Well, it's time to change the subject (at least for the next minute and a half). 咳嗯！我們現在來換個話題吧。 We might want to mention that another man in baseball just hit a home run that, in its own way, could be considered almost as momentous. 我們也想提醒您，另外有一位也要擊出一支，在某些方面說來，也很了不得的全壘打。 We recognize that a 500th home run doesn't carry the same magnitude as a 755th home run. But if the man hitting it is named Alex Rodriguez, it becomes a 500th home run of vastly greater significance than just about any of the 21 previous 500th home runs. 我們當然知道500轟和755轟的份量不同。但如果擊出500轟的這位是個名叫Alex Rodriguez的先生，他的500轟代表的意義遠比在他之前的21個500轟大的多。 Alex Rodriguez hit that 500th home run Saturday, eight days after his 32nd birthday. Let's try to give you some perspective on what that means. A-Rod在星期六，也就是他的32歲生日過後8天，擊出了第500發全壘打。我們來看看這記錄背後究竟代表了什麼。 ‧ That's two years and five months younger than Hank Aaron was when he hit No. 500. 他比Hank Aaron擊出500轟時年輕2歲又5個月。 ‧ It's two years and four months younger than Willie Mays was when he hit No. 500. 比Wille Mays擊出500轟時年輕2歲又4個月。 ‧ It's three years and 10 months younger than Mark McGwire was when he hit No. 500. 比Mark McGwire擊出500轟時年輕3歲又10個月。 ‧ And it's four years and eight months younger than Bonds was when he hit No. 500. 比Bonds500轟時年輕4歲又8個月。 Or think about this another way. A-Rod could blow out his knee, or have Tommy John surgery, or find some other reason not to play another game until Labor Day of 2009 -- and still have more home runs than any of those guys had at the same age. 從另一個角度來看，A-Rod有可能膝蓋廢掉，或是動Tommy John手術，或是因為其他某種原因在2009勞動節（5月1日）前都無法上場，但是他的全壘打數仍然會比上述每個人在相同年紀的時候都多。 But since we haven't seen Dr. James Andrews lurking around his locker lately, we're assuming that won't be happening. So as Barry prepares his 756th-homer speech, Alex Rodriguez just keeps on making those home run trots. 但既然我們沒看到Dr. James Andrews在他的至物櫃附近活動，我們認為這種情況不太可能發生。所以當Bonds要準備他的756轟感言時，A-Rod仍舊繼續他的全壘打競逐。 Another 256 of them, and he and Barry can team up for their own ESPN Classic Home Run History marathon. 再打256發，他和Bonds就能組成ESPN經典全壘打歷史性的馬拉松隊伍。 But this is where we need to stop this parade before we start decorating all the floats. We're amazed by all the people who pretty much assume that it's now only a matter of time before A-Rod reclaims the record from that scoundrel, Barry. Well, here's our advice to all of those people: 但在加諸各式讚譽並遊街慶祝前，我們得先停一會兒。我們十分驚異：居然有這麼多人認為A-Rod從壞壞Bonds手上奪走記錄光環只是時間的問題。我們對這些人有以下的建議： Heed the powerful lessons of history. Pay attention to the almost never-ending message the sports world delivers to us every single day. Which is: 請注意歷史有力的明訓，體壇幾乎每天不間斷都在對我們傳送的那個訊息。也就是… You can't assume anything. 沒有什麼事是絕對的。 Has A-Rod put himself in perfect position to blow away this record? Of course. He's younger than guys like Mark DeRosa and Gary Matthews Jr., and he's already at 500 homers. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better bet to break Bonds' record than he is to make more money next year than the entire work force down at 7-11. A-Rod是否有絕佳的機會打破紀錄？當然，他比Mark DeRosa和Gary Matthews Jr.這些人都年輕，但是他已經達到500轟了。但這並不代表他打破Bonds紀錄的機會比他明年年薪高於7-11全體員工薪水的機會高。 For one thing, we can't be sure where Bonds' own total is going to come to rest. For argument's sake, let's say it's 775. Could be more. Could be fewer. But let's just use 775 as our guidepost. 第一，我們不知道Bonds的紀錄會到什麼地方才停。要推論的話，我們姑且說是775轟好了。有可能比這多，也有可能比這少，但我們暫且把775當作標的。 That means A-Rod would need another 275 homers to catch him. And for a guy like A-Rod, hitting 275 home runs probably sounds like it would be an easier job than editing his wife's T-shirt collection. 這表示A-Rod需要再打275發全壘打才能趕上他。對A-Rod這種重砲手來說，打275發應該會比管他老婆穿什麼T-shirt容易吧？ But hold on. Let us remind you that 275 home runs is still a mess of homers -- even in this day and age. It's more than Roger Maris, Steve Garvey, Kirk Gibson, Brooks Robinson, George Bell and about 400,000 other men hit in their whole careers, as a matter of fact. 但容我提醒您：275發全壘打在今天來說，仍舊是一個不小的數目。它比 Roger Maris, Steve Garvey, Kirk Gibson, Brooks Robinson, George Bell和其他 400,000人的職業生涯全壘打數都多。 And the other thing we all need to remind ourselves -- always -- is that we have no idea (none!) how many seasons, how many at-bats, how many opportunities Alex Rodriguez will get, over the rest of his career, to break that record. 還有一件我們得提醒自己的事：我們完全無法知道A-Rod接下來的職業生涯裡，他還有多少季、多少個打席、多少個機會來打破紀錄。 Maybe he'll keep cranking out big home run years into his late 30s and early 40s, like Aaron and Bonds. But the odds say he won't. 也許他會在三十晚期和四十歲出頭持續締造多轟的球季，就像Aaron和Bonds一樣，但是機率並不高。 Mays and Mickey Mantle started sliding precipitously at age 36. McGwire was done at 37. Mays和Mickey Mantle36歲時全壘打數目開始大幅滑落，McGwire37歲就玩完了。 Jimmie Foxx hit 464 runs before he turned 32. But he was all but washed up by age 33. Jimmie Foxx在32歲前打了464轟，但是他33歲就氣力放盡。 And then there's Junior Griffey. 還有Junior Griffey。 Could Griffey's career, before age 32, possibly have been more A-Rodesque? Like A-Rod, Griffey was the No. 1 pick in the draft. Like A-Rod, he started his career as a teenager in Seattle. Griffey32歲前的職業生涯跟A-Rod簡直是一個模子刻出來的。他跟A-Rod一樣是選秀首位，也跟A-Rod一樣，還是個青少年時就從水手隊展開職業生涯。 Griffey hit 460 home runs before his 32nd birthday (in 2001). And he would have been extremely close to A-Rod's total if he hadn't suffered what looked, at the time, like a freak torn-hamstring injury in spring training of 2001. Other than an earlier broken wrist, from crashing into a fence, it was the only serious injury of Griffey's career to that point. Griffey在2001年他的32歲生日前打了460轟。假如他2001年的春訓沒有受傷的話，全壘打總數會跟A-Rod非常接近。除了一次撞牆造成的手腕骨折之外，Griffey在此之前沒有受過任何嚴重的傷。 But then, just as we were all about halfway through our big Why-Junior-Will-Pass-Hank term papers, you know what happened: 就在那時，「小葛超越阿倫」的大幅報導才寫到一半，你知道接下來發生了什麼事… Griffey turned into a walking HMO ad. Griffey成了保健單位的活廣告。 Maybe that will happen to A-Rod. Maybe it won't. But not even baseballpsychic.com can tell you that answer. That part is up to the baseball gods. 或許同樣的事會發生在A-Rod身上，也有可能不會。但即使是baseballpsychic.com也無法告訴你到底會不會。這得由棒球世界的神祇來決定。 So all we can do is look to the past for guidance. And that's what we did. We studied what happens to the great sluggers after they blow out the candles on their 32nd birthday cake. The results are fascinating: 所以我們目前能作的，就是看看過去的紀錄裡是否有跡可尋。於是我們研究了史上偉大強打者32歲之後的紀錄。結果讓人大開眼界： ‧ Of the top 10 names on the all-time homer list, seven of them had a season that produced the best home run ratios of their careers after they turned 32. So that's good. 史上10大全壘打重砲手裡面，有7個人的生涯最高全壘打率的一季出現在32歲之後，挺不賴的。 ‧ But only three of them (Aaron, Bonds and Rafael Palmeiro) had that season in their late 30s. So that's bad. 但是只有3個人（Aaron,Bonds,Palmeiro）是在三十晚期打出這一季。這可不太妙。 ‧ And if you think it's so easy to hit 275 home runs at this stage of a career, consider this: Only six players in history have ever done it -- Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, McGwire and Palmeiro. And there are, shall we say, serious performance-enhancement questions about half of that group. 如果你覺得在這個生涯階段打275轟是件容易的事，請看看下面的數據：史上只有6位球員達成這個壯舉，他們是Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, Mays, McGwire, Palmeiro。其中大約有一半是禁藥疑雲俱樂部的成員。 ‧ You may also notice that every one of those guys was an outfielder, a first baseman or a DH. None was a third baseman. And none was a shortstop -- which could be relevant, since A-Rod has made noises about returning to his old position if he leaves the Yankees. The only third baseman who ever got within 50 homers of hitting 276 after turning 32 was Mike Schmidt (237). No shortstop ever hit more than 100 homers after turning 32. (Eddie Joost hit 100 on the nose.) And Cal Ripken hit 162 while dividing his time between short and third. 你可能還注意到這些人要不是外野手，便是一壘手或是DH。沒有一個是三壘手，也沒有一個是游擊手。這可能有點關連，因為A-Rod曾放話說如果他離開洋基隊，他想重回游擊位置。唯一一個在32歲之後打進離276轟有50支差距的三壘手是Mike Schmidt（237轟）。沒有一個游擊手曾在32歲後打出超過100發全壘打。（Eddie Joost剛好打到100發）守游擊也守三壘的Cal Ripken打出162轟。 So what does all this say about Rodriguez's chances of passing Barry? 所以這些跟A-Rod超越Bonds的機會有何關連？ One man who is bullish on those chances is David Vincent, the legendary SABR home run historian. Despite the lack of precedent for any third baseman or shortstop hitting this many home runs at this stage of his career, Vincent thinks A-Rod's position actually gives him an advantage over someone like Griffey. 美國棒球研究協會的傳奇全壘打史學家David Vincent對A-Rod創紀錄表示樂觀。雖然之前沒有三壘手或游擊手曾在生涯此期打出這麼多全壘打，Vinvent卻認為A-Rod的守備位置比像Griffey這樣的人佔便宜。 "A-Rod plays a position now that will take less of a toll on his body than center field," Vincent said. "He does not routinely run into walls or dive for balls like Junior. I think he will be healthier, which could enable him to play longer at a top level." 「A-Rod守的位置對他身體造成的傷害比守中外野來的小。」Vincent說。「他不用像小葛一樣動不動就得撞牆，或是飛撲接球。我認為他會比較健康，維持較長高檔表現的機會也高。」 A-Rod has averaged 46 homers a year over the 10 full seasons in his career (not even counting this year). So Vincent finds it easy to envision him averaging 35 a year for the next eight seasons -- which would get him to 780 or so. A-Rod在打滿的10個球季中平均每季46轟。（今年不算的話）所以Vincent認為接下來8季平均每季35轟是合理的推估，這樣他會打到780轟左右。 But that always seems easy to envision when a player is in the prime of his career. Our question is whether that's a mathematically- or historically-safe assumption. 但是在一個球員顛峰時期這樣推算當然合理，我們要問的是：這樣的推估從數學和歷史的觀點來看是否合理。 For that answer, we turned to Dan Heisman, a sabermetrician who for years has used variations on Bill James' Favorite Toy formula to analyze active players' odds of achieving certain milestones. Here is what he found: 要回答這問題，我們找上了一位名叫Dan Heisman的棒球統計數據學家。多年來他在Bill James的Favorite Toy formula（譯註：我不知道這是啥～）上用變數分析現役球員達成生涯里程碑的機率。這是他的分析結果： ‧ Using projections for this year's totals, he calculated that A-Rod has a 48 percent chance of hitting 775 homers (or 52 percent of hitting 756). 以A-Rod今年的推估總成績來計算，A-Rod達到775轟的機率是48％（達成756轟的機率是52 ％）。 ‧ The only other hitters who even had better than a 15 percent chance at 775 were Albert Pujols (26 percent), Ryan Howard (18 percent) and Adam Dunn (also 18). 775轟有15％以上機率的打者僅有：Albert Pujols(26%), Ryan Howard (18%), Adam Dunn (18%)。 So obviously, A-Rod has put himself in by far the best position of any other active player. But even that 48 percent calculation tells you he's still a stronger bet not to catch Bonds than to catch him. 很明顯的，A-Rod在現役球員中佔了最有利的位置。但是48％的推估也代表著，他趕不上 Bonds的機率仍然比較高。 And remember, as recently as 2000, when Griffey had 438 homers at age 30, he was rated as having a 42 percent chance to hit 756, and a 38 percent chance to hit 775. But by the time Griffey arrived at No. 500 -- four years and an assortment of major injuries later -- his chances had decreased slightly. 而且不要忘了，2000年時30歲的Griffey達到了438轟。當時他達成756轟的機率是42％，達成775轟的機率是38％。但等到Griffey500轟時，也就是過了4年，受了一連串大小傷之後，機率「稍稍」降低了。 Like to zero. 降到差不多零。 So just for fun, we asked Heisman if he could also calculate what the chances looked like for the next youngest 500-homer men -- Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Sammy Sosa and Foxx -- at the time they hit their 500th. 純粹只是好玩，我們要Heisman算算看，在Aaron, Ruth, Mays, Sosa, Foxx等人達成500 轟時，他們的機率為何。 Sosa turned out to be the guy who topped them all, at 39 percent (and a 44 percent chance of reaching 756). Ruth was next at 29 percent (35 percent for 756), Foxx at 24 (29 for 756) and Mays at 22 (27 for 756). 算出來最高的是Sosa，39％（756轟的機率是44％）第二是Ruth的29％（756轟機率35％） Foxx是24％（756轟機率29％），Mays為22％（756轟機率27％） But wait. What about the guy who wound up as the actual record-holder, Aaron? You'll be either stunned or amused to learn that he projected to a zero percent chance back then at either 756 or 775 (because he'd slumped to only 29 homers the year he hit his 500th). 喂等等，那個真正打破紀錄的人，Aaron呢？你聽了不是嚇一大跳就是哈哈大笑：他756和 775的機率都是零！（因為他達成500轟的那年他低潮到一季29轟） And that tells you all you need to know about the dangers of getting into the projection business -- or the assumption business -- on stuff like this. It's a reminder that the chances often look great of all kinds of records falling -- until they don't. 現在你知道預估數據這類玩意兒的風險了，要達成記錄之前機會看起來總是很大，但結果不一定是這麼回事。 So as A-Rod celebrates No. 500, feel free to applaud the feat and savor the moment. Then it'll be time to kick off this very argument at a tavern near you. 所以，A-Rod正慶祝500轟的同時，盡情的喝采和享受這一刻吧。在喝酒瞎扯時可以把這個數據推論拿出來當話題。 Why do we have a feeling we'll still be kicking at it in the year 2013? 我們怎麼有種感覺…2013年時這個話題還是不會退燒？ -- -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.117.34.63

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