[譯文] Rodriguez Hits 600

看板A-Rod作者jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)時間15年前 (2010/08/06 18:15)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rodriguez-hits-600/ 有圖表 by Jack Moore - August 4, 2010 In the first inning of today’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Alex Rodriguez blasted his 600th career home run to dead center field off of Toronto starter Shaun Marcum. You can watch the video here. 在今天對藍鳥的比賽的第一局中，A-Rod從藍鳥先發投手Shaun Marcum手中轟出了他飛向死亡中外野的第600號全壘打。 Rodriguez becomes the seventh player to reach this milestone, and he does so at only 35 years old, suggesting that he may be able to chase 700 and the marks put up by Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds. If Rodriguez can do anything near what either of these three monoliths put up after their age-34 seasons (Rodriguez turned 35 on July 27th, meaning he spent a majority of the 2010 season as a 34-year-old), even 800 home runs could be a possibility. Ruth had the weakest twilight years of the trio, with 198. Aaron blasted 245 in the eight seasons he played after turning 35, but that doesn’t quite touch Bonds’s 317. Of course, Bonds’s performance is covered by the shadow of the steroids era, but it still far outweighs the performance of any of his peers at that age. A-Rod成為第七位達到這個里程碑的球員，在僅僅35歲的年齡，這表示他很可能繼續追逐 700轟-這個由Babe Ruth，Hank Aaron跟Barry Bonds共同保有的標竿。如果A-Rod能再接進這三位前輩在他們34歲之後建立的里程碑，甚至800轟，也會是可能的。(A-Rod在7月27 號才剛滿35歲，這也意味著他的大部分2010球季裡他是34歲。)在這三位中，Ruth在35歲之後即出的全壘打最少-198隻。Aaron是245隻，但他在35歲之後仍打了8個球季，但也比不上Bonds的317隻。當然Bonds的表現被他過去使用類固醇的陰影所覆蓋，但他的表現比起他那個年代的其他任何打者實在是勝過太多了。 Can Alex Rodriguez keep up his performance? Even though New Yankee Stadium favors left handed hitters more than right handed hitters, StatCorner’s park factors suggest it should still help Rodriguez in his quest for 800 or 762 or 755 or any other number he’s going after. The real question is if he can fend off the effects of aging long enough. A-Rod能夠維持他的水準嗎？雖然說新洋基球場是個比起右打者對左打者更有利的球場，根據StatCorner的球場指數它對於A-Rod追逐800轟/762轟/755轟或其他數字都還是有幫助的。真正問題在於他是否能夠抵抗老化的問題。 A-Rod’s power from ages 31-34 is trending down and right now it’s hard to imagine him rattling off another 200 home runs in his career to reach 800. It ’s possible that 762 will be tough for him to reach, and we always have to account for the possibility of injury. However, Aaron had an even less impressive, albeit more consistent, stretch in that same time of his career, and he went on to be a tremendous slugger through age 40. Ruth’s career was simpler, as he steadily declined from utterly ridiculous to merely really good from age 32 to age 40, but Ruth’s power numbers were driven by a more balanced attack between doubles and home runs, whereas Aaron didn’t hit many doubles in his later career. (見圖表) A-Rod的Power在31-34歲這個階段有下降的趨勢，而現階段很難去想像他之後還能砲聲隆隆地再打個200轟去挑戰800轟的紀錄。甚至挑戰762轟都可能會是個難題，而且我們也必須去考慮受傷的可能。儘管如此，Aaron在這個時間點卻有著比較不讓人印象深刻，但更穩定持久的過程，一直到他40歲仍然保持非常優異的長打身手。Ruth的生涯數據就比較常見了，在32歲到40歲從徹底的怪物衰退成非常好的打者，但他的Power數字仍有相對比例的2B跟HR 去做平衡，相對地Aaron生涯晚期並沒有打太多2B。 Alex Rodriguez has already cemented himself as one of the elite hitters in the game’s history at a relatively young age. Now the question becomes how much does he have left. He certainly has the chance to be the first player to reach 800 home runs stateside – one can never forget the great Sadaharu Oh and his 868 career Japanese home runs – but there’s also no guarantee, given the realities of injury and aging, that he can reach the records of Bonds and Aaron or even become the fourth player to reach 700 home runs. Over the next few years, we will find out if Rodriguez can join this pantheon of greats, but even if he doesn’t, this is an accomplishment to be celebrated. 在相對年輕的年紀所累積的成績裡，A-Rod早已鞏固了他身為菁英打者的地位。現在問題變成他還剩下多少做得到的事情。從數據上來說，他當然有機會成為第一位達到800轟里程碑的球員-任何人應該都不會忘記偉大的Oh桑跟他的868轟紀錄-但這真的沒有任何一定。考慮到受傷跟老化的現實層面，達到Bonds跟Aaron的紀錄或成為第四位創下700轟紀錄至少是可能的。在未來的幾年，我們會知道A-Rod究竟能不能加入這幾位偉人所在的高度，但就算他沒辦法辦到，這仍是個值得慶祝的偉大成就。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.7.59