[情報] 2006 Top 20 sophomore
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/top_20_2006_sop.php
13. Casey Kotchman - 1B - Los Angeles Angels
Talk about a player PECOTA doesn't like. Thanks to a few years littered with
injuries, Major League ineffectiveness, and a lack of opportunity, Kotchman
is not a player that is projected well. His top ten comparables are a sorry
group, and his high for the next five years -- in terms of WARP -- is 2.6.
However, it's a prediction system far from perfect, and in Kotchman's case,
numbers don't tell the whole story. For years, Casey has drawn the same
comparison: Mark Grace. His fielding has always been lauded, as have his
contact skills. Some would say that Kotchman's power would eventually
develop, and his offense at first would be way above-average. Others, not
so much. At this point, I think Kotchman is -- for his career -- a 15-25
home run player. To be successful, he'll need an average upwards of .300.
He can do it.
15. Ervin Santana - SP - Los Angeles Angels
I'm not sure we really appreciate what Santana has done here. Sure, Bartolo
Colon, Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey all had good 2005 seasons, and were
more responsible for the Angels performance than Santana's. However, does
anyone really believe that without Ervin, the Angels would have made the
playoffs? For an October run, every team needs a player that steps up at the
right time and replaces someone injured. That is what Santana did, and in
effect, made Washburn's high price tag expendable this winter. Santana was
on and off with his game last year, but had flashes of the lightning stuff
that gained him notoriety in the minors. He's got a lot more bust potential
than the names on this list, but he also could be really successful atop the
Angel rotation.
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