2009 LOS ANGELES ANGELS SEASON PREVIEW

看板Angels作者abc12812時間17年前 (2009/02/19 17:10)推噓9(9推 0噓 5→)

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Usually I try to write these introductions last because it gives me some time to think about the team and what I want to write about regarding the previous season and also looking forward to 2009. I think taking the long view of things, the Angels are interesting because they've been a team whose farm system has been very highly touted, overflowing with prospects. The ones off the top of my head are Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales, Nick Adenhart and Jeff Mathis. None of those guys have delivered. That isn't to say the Angels haven't graduated some talent. Mike Napoli looks very promising if he can stay healthy and guys like Joe Saunders & Jered Weaver have been solid contributors even if they haven't been world beaters. Weaver showed he took a big step forward last season. Francisco Rodriguez turned out to be a monster in the bullpen, but now he's gone. John Lackey has turned out well and Ervin Santana has turned into an amazing starting pitcher if he can keep hold of the gains he made last season. Guys like Morales, Kendrick, Adenhart & Aybar still have a shot to step forward but I think the bigger picture here and one I think even the Minnesota Twins would do well to remember is that the farm system is simply a means to an end. It's not exactly the reason to play the game. Whether that is growing cheap affordable talent to make your team a winner or whether it's leveraging high powered prospects to bring in veteran players to get your team to a championship level, the point of the farm system is simply being a tool so that your team can win. The Angels have shown they can stockpile prospects, but they haven't won. The Twins & A's have shown they can stockpile prospects, but they haven't won. I think the issue here is that the team must recognize talent and when to trade for it. It's sort of odd in a way but when you have that many prospects coming up through the system, do you really think all of them are going to pan out? For the Angels, it would appear that Weaver, Santana and Napoli are going to work out, but that might mean that Kendrick, Aybar, Morales, Saunders, Adenhart and Wood won't work out. Let's go back to 2003. Here as Baseball America's Top-10 Angels prospects: 1. Francisco Rodriguez 2. Casey Kotchman 3. Bobby Jenks 4. Jeff Mathis 5. Johan Santana (not the one you are thinking about!) 6. Dallas McPherson 7. Joe Saunders 8. Rich Fischer 9. Joe Torres 10. Chris Bootcheck Let's be honest, Casey Kotchman is a nice defensive 1B, but his bat can't carry the position and LA wan't too worried about shipping him when a guy whose bat COULD carry the position became available. If you really want to stop at saying legit IMPACT players are positon players and starting pitchers, then that top-10 produced nothing. It did produce a couple of nice closers in Jenks and K-Rod, but neither gave the Angels any return. Jenks was placed on waviers and claimed by the White Sox and the rest is history. K-Rod just left so in reality, there is nothing on the 2009 team to show for what happened with the 2003 top prospects. In that year (2003), Baseball America ranked the Angels as having the 5th best farm system in the major leagues! So the real question is what those players could have brought in return in trade value if the Angels looked hard and thought that none of them would make it? It's an interesting thought and one teams like the Angels, Twins and A's should think about if they continue to operate the way they do. Certainly the Angels don't have to, but unless they get a little more diligent in their free agent signings and stop throwing money at guys like Torii Hunter & Gary Matthews, then they need to figure out how to use the farm system! The really wild part is that it might not matter too much for the Angels in the short term or even possibly the long term. What the Angels have managed to do is create a team that can simply keep winning the AL West on pitching alone. Angels fans have to be absolutely giddy about what Ervin Santana did last season. Not just for his growth as a starter, but also because it gives the Angels a dynamite 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation when you count Lackey. I think Jered Weaver also took steps into become at least a #3 starter in the rotation which is all the Angels need him to be. Saunders is nothing more than a back end starter and the Angels really don't have a 5th starter, but at some point they'll have to let Adenhart go and see what he can do. Then again, the Angels have money so why not go out and get a #4/#5 starter? It doesn't make a ton of sense really. Still, with a rotation like that and the bullpen, you have a winning combination really. The Angels ranked 3rd in the league in ERA last season and I actually think the rotation will be better and that the bullpen will be improved with Fuentes in relief. It sounds wild but LA is sort of right back where they started. The one difference is that I think they did what they had to do in bringing Abreu to LA. It's not a HUGE signing, but Abreu instantly gives them LF production at a position that demands it, but also prevents the Angels from using Reggie Willits and Gary Matthews out there. So essentially what we are saying is that the Angels are an 88-win team based on Pythagorean, but will they be better in 2009? I have to say I think they might. It's tough losing Teixeira and K-Rod but the offense can't get much worse than it was '08 and I think the pitching is going to be the same. If the Angels win 91 games and their Pythagorean says they are a 90-win team, isn't that improving? The 91-games should be easy enough to win the West. It doesn't mean they'll get out of the playoffs, but it does mean they'll get there again. =============================================================================== 2009 ANGELS STARTING LINEUP C-Mike Napoli: 273/374/586; 20HR, 9-2B, 49RBI, 6.5AB/BB, 7SB, 147OPS+ Looking back a few years, Napoli was actually behind Jeff Mathis in the Angels plans for a catcher in the future. Unforutnately for Mathis, he didn't pan out and in 2004, Napoli starting beating the cover off the ball. That year in High-A ball, Napoli hit 282/393/539 with 29HR and 118RBI! He followed that up with a year in AA where he hit 237/372/508 with 31HR and 99RBI. His contact rate in those 2-years were 66% & 68% respectively meaning the kid strikesout A LOT! He hasn't done much better at the major league level with a career contact rate of 69%. Napoli's power is obviously for real and his plate discipline is great, espeically for a catcher. With the plate discipline, Napoli will keep his OBP% plenty high but if he could cut down on the strikeouts he'd become an elite player. With his power and a .280-.290 batting average, I wonder if Napoli could make a few people forget about Joe Mauer? The problem with overlooking Napoli is that he makes it easy to do because of injury. He hasn't broken 80 games in any of the past two-seasons and you wonder if it's becoming a chronic problem. If Napoli could get a healthy season going, he might do something like 285/390/550 with 30HR and close to a 100RBI. That's an MVP front runner on a division winning team playing catcher. 1B-Kendry Morales: 213/273/393; 3HR, 2-2B, 8RBI, 15.3AB/BB, 0SB, 72OPS+ So that didn't workout like LA thought it would. Unable to sign Teixeira and shipping Kotchman to Atlanta, the Angels turn to Kendry Morales to take over 1B. Morales has shown he can rip the cover off the ball in the minor leagues. Last year in AAA he hit .341. In 2007 guess what he hit at AAA? It was .341! He's a career .332 hitter in the minor leagues with a walk rate of 16.9AB/BB and a contact rate of 86%. There isn't much left for him to prove at the minor league level so all that is left is for him to hit in LA. The contact rate says he should be a .300 hitter in the major leagues although I'm not sure he'll have much power. If he hits 20HR it'll be good enough. That's more than Kotchman was going to give you. Defensively he's not close to Kotchman or Teixeira, but he's got more offensive upside than Kotchman does and because of that I don't see the gamble in trading away Kotchman in hoping to strike gold with Teixeira even it was just for a half season. Morales is going to be 26-years old this season so he needs to start getting it done. 2B-Howie Kendrick: 306/333/421; 3HR, 26-2B, 37RBI, 28.3AB:BB, 11SB, 97OPS+ It's sort of getting tiring. Kendrick came up as a hitter in the mold of Tony Gwynn. The problem with those kinds of comparisons is that you just can't compare guys to guys like Gwynn. It's not fair to either player. Gwynn hit .340 over 20-seasons! Gwynn for his career had a walk rate of 11.8AB/BB. Kendrick is nowhere even remotely close to that sort of patience. The problem with Kendrick is that the .300 averages are somewhat empty at this point. Because of the walk rate, he'll have to hit .340 to make him valuable but he doesn't walk enough to hit .340. That leaves him in the .300-.310 range with an OBP% in the .330s. He's average defensively and he really can't stay healthy. He flashed more speed last season but only stole bases at a 73% clip so he's hurting the team. He's going to be 25 this season so he's got time but not much. What he really needs is a consolidation season in which he stays healthy, makes a few better decisions on the basepaths and take a few more pitches. We'll have to wait and see. 3B-Chone Figgins: 276/367/318; 1HR, 14-2B, 22RBI, 7.3AB:BB, 34SB, 82OPS+ Injuries have gotten the better of Figgins over the last couple of seasons with his hamstring being the culprit last season. He's a nice little player but he's more of a utility player than anything else. He can play almost any position on the diamond so he's great at giving everyone a day off during the week and getting himself at-bats. That's a pretty good thing. With his AB:BB rate over the last two seasons sitting at 7.9 and his contact rate at 82%, he's got a pretty good shot at hitting .300 with an OBP% of .375. The problem with Figgins is that he's no third baseman. He's a helluva defender there but his bat can't possibly justify the position and the Angels aren't getting major production from 2B, SS or CF to jusitify the imbalance of position to power ratio. It's that simple. His bat profiles best probably at 2B but Kendrick isn't being pushed off of there. The best thing the Angels could probably hope for is to sign a real 3B and then wait for the inevitable Kendrick injury while Figgins slots in everyday as a utility player giving different players a day off on different days. It's not optimal but it'll do. SS-Erick Aybar: 277/314/384; 3HR, 18-2B, 39RBI, 24.7AB:BB, 7SB, 83OPS+ He's pretty slick with the glove but that bat is awful. Aybar was a career .312 hitter in the minors and his contact rate was 89%. That isn't too bad although Aybar won't take a walk to save his life meaning his OBP% is wholly dependant upon his batting average. At the major league level so far, Aybar's kept his contact rate at 85% which isn't too far off but the big difference is his BABIP. In the minors it was .338, but at the major league level it was .301. He has almost no power so when you consider he doesn't hit the ball with much authority and combine that with no walking ability, you get a hitter going up against superior pitching without much going for him other than being able to put the bat on the ball. He's got some speed, but he's going to be 25-years old this season and hasn't done much at all so far. If you are a fantasy player looking for stolen bases then maybe this is a guy that could go under the radar, but from a team perspective trying to win a championship, I'm not sure I see the upside outside of his defense. LF-Bobby Abreu: 296/371/471; 20HR, 39-2B, 100RBI, 8.3AB:BB, 22SB, 120OPS+ The Angels did what they had to do and went out and got a piece to play LF for a team who looked to have a subpar offense. It's pretty well known what Abreu can bring to the table as an offensive producer. He stays exceptionally healthy and he's good for a 20-20 season almost every single year while driving in 100 runs and drawing oodles of walks and getting on base. The incredible walk rates have went down since leaving Philadelphia, but Abreu is going to be 35-years old so some of his skill set will decline to a degree. Still, for the most part, what you see is what you get. The stolen bases will continue to slide most likely but the Halos don't need him to steal bases. They need him as a middle of the order bat. Abreu allows the Angels to have a bigger edge in the AL West, but the other teams are catching up and putting band-aids on problems won't fix them long term. CF-Torii Hunter: 278/344/466; 21HR, 37-2B, 78RBI, 11.0AB:BB, 19SB, 110OPS+ Defense is good but not as crazy good as it's largely touted. Maybe Angels management didn't know this, but there is this little thing called a contract year. It's basically the year before a player hits free agency and more often than not a player will elevate his game to a degree to get a long term contract that worth a lot more than his future potential. You would have thought the Angels might have learned this after giving Gary Matthews Jr. a 5-year/$50 million deal after the 2006 season in Texas where Matthews hit 313/371/495. Since coming to LA, Matthews hasn't had an OPS+ greater than 93 making him almost useless for the next 3-years. Hunter in 2007 for the Twins hit 287/334/505 with 28HR and 107RBI as a 31-year old aging centerfielder. The Angels apparently ignored all that and decided to give him a 5-year/$90 million deal! His OPS+ decreased by 12% in his first year in LA! Good move Angels! Glad you are paying a 33-year old Hunter $18 million a year to hit .280 with that .340 OBP%! I know the Angels want to win and Arte Moreno has money to spend but Matthews & Hunter? The Angels are falling and they are falling fast. RF-Vladimir Guerrero: 303/365/521; 27HR, 31-2B, 91RBI, 10.6AB:BB, 5SB, 130OPS+ The Impaler is starting to show some age. It was the 5th straight year that Guerrero's SLG% has dipped and the 2nd straight year he didn't hit 30+HR. His speed is gone and he's just average in the outfield now. His isolated OBP% have been declining too. Guerrero is only going to be 33-years old this season. That seems fairly young for as long as it seems he's been around. Guerrero is still a pretty special player to watch play the game, but you wonder if the decline is sitting in for real. He still has the ability to hit .300 but probably won't be having anymore 30HR years. Is the new baseline something like 300/350/490? That's not bad but not what the Angels are used to either. This is Guerrero's last season in LA if the Angles don't resign him. I wonder where he'll end up? Teams in the NL that seem like good fits might be the Mets, Cubs or even the Giants. What can you say about Guerrero? He's a warrior. DH-Juan Rivera: 246/282/438; 12HR, 13-2B, 45RBI, 16.0AB:BB, 1SB, 86OPS+ Rivera has quite a bit of skill, but unfortunately staying healthy isn't one of them. He's got a pretty great contact rate sitting at 87% which means he should be a shoe-in to hit .300+ especially if he increases his walk rate just a bit like he did in 2004 & 2006. Maybe that comes with being healthy? He's got power too as evidenced by the 23HR he his in 2006. What stings him however is health and bad luck. His BABIP in 2005 & 2008 combined is .261. His combined BABIP in 2004, 2006 & 2007 is .318. A lot of luck there but Rivera's skill set shines through too. About the only thing he doesn't do well is walk and if he gets that rate to 11 or 12 AB per walk then he'll be fine. The problem is that you simply don't know what'll happen. 2009 ANGELS BENCH C-Jeff Mathis: 194/275/318; 9HR, 8-2B, 42RBI, 9.4AB:BB, 2SB, 55OPS+ IF-Maicer Izturis; 269/329/362; 3HR, 14-2B, 37RBI, 11.2AB:BB, 11SB, 82OPS+ IF-Robb Quinlan: 262/326/311; 1HR, 1-2B, 11RBI, 11.7AB:BB, 4SB, 69OPS+ IF-Brandon Wood: 200/224/327; 5HR, 4-2B, 13RBI, 37.5AB:BB, 4SB, 43OPS+ OF-Gary Matthews Jr.: 242/319/357; 8HR, 19-2B, 46RBI, 9.5AB:BB, 8SB, 77OPS+ OF-Reggie Willits: 194/321/231; 0HR, 4-2B, 7RBI, 5.1AB:BB, 2SB, 49OPS+ That ain't pretty. My first guess would be for Wood to go back to Salt Lake City but what else does the guy have to prove there? In the last two years, Wood has hit 54HR and totaled 161RBI while mashing AAA pitchers. Wood's walk rate in AAA is 9.5AB/BB. At the major league level so far it's 45.8AB/BB! His contact rate in AAA is 73%. In the majors thus far it's 70%. He strikesout 14x more often than he walks at the major league level, but in AAA he strikesout only 2.6x more often. Wood got called up in last August and the Angels let him play out the string. In that time period Wood's walk rate was 43.0AB/BB and his contact rate was 74%. The power is legit but for whatever reason the once highly touted prospect isn't making many gains and he'll be 24 this season. He's got to turn it on quick. The rest of the bench is BRUTAL! Nobody does anything really well. And even if they did the Angels don't need that right now. For the most part they need guys like Abreu, Aybar, Napoli and Kendrick to put in a full season. The Halos need their bench to be just that. A bunch of guys riding pines getting garbage time when games are completely out of hand or a player needs a break. That's it. OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE LOS ANGELES OFFENSE? The Angels ranked 10th in the AL in runs scored last season and they lose Mark Teixeira and the 180+ OPS he provided for a third of the season! EEK. Grabbing Abreu as a free agent makes me rethink the entire Angels offense really. I had this section actually written before Abreu was signed so now I have to rethink it. In the end, it doesn't change a ton. The Angels are interesting in that a few years ago they had a ton of minor league prospects that was supposed to keep the machine churning. Guys like Jeff Mathis, Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Dallas McPherson & Brandon Wood were supposed to supplement aging veterans like Vladimir Guerrero in introducing a youth movement in LA that would pick up essentially where the competitve teams that won a World Series in 2002 left off. It hasn't exactly happened that way. Nobody has really stepped up offensively and it's sort of led the Angels down a path of trying to sign free agents to pick up the slack. I think the Hunter & Matthews Jr. signings are fairly bad. The Matthews Jr. signing already absymal. There is still time for some of the young hitters to step up. Having Kendrick, Aybar and Wood come through on promise would be nice, but if they could just get healthy years out of Kendrick and Napoli that would go a long way into helping the offense out. The whole just doesn't seem right to me at this point. 2009 ANGELS STARTING ROTATION #1-John Lackey: 163.3IP, 8.9H/9, 7.2K/9, 3.3K:BB, 2.2BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 1.231WHIP, 119ERA+ Triceps problems kept Lackey from the Angels for about 6-weeks or rather 9 starts. When he came back, the guy went absolutely bananas. In his first 9-games Lackey went 6-1 with a 1.44ERA over 68.7IP. He struckout 54, walked 13 and only allowed 6HR. From that point forward Lackey went 6-4 with a 5.42ERA over 94.7IP. He K'd 76, walked 27 and allowed 20HR for a 1.9HR/9IP rate! What happened during the All-Star break is baffling but it was obviously a tale of two pitchers. Lackey did lose some control but even during this bad run it was only 2.6BB/9. The really alarming thing is the HR/9 rate! For whatever reason, Lackey was missing and missing high causing quite a few gopher balls. To be honest, it's kind of mysterious. In my mind, Lackey is a legit #1 starter and it's going to take more than a half of of a season to get me off that mindset. #2-Ervin Santana: 219IP, 8.1H/9, 8.8K/9, 4.6K:BB, 1.9BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.119WHIP, 127ERA+ That's called putting it together! Santana essentially ditched his curveball for more sliders and pumped his fastball to the average tune of 94-95mph! For whatever reason, Santana couldn't win on the road in 2007. At home that season Santana posted a 3.27ERA but on the road it ballooned to 8.38. Last season, his road ERA slipped to 3.02 while his home ERA actually increased to 4.03! His ERA is actually higher than it should be. With those peripherals, Santana deserves better than a 127ERA+! Let's be honest, Santana has been this good for awhile. These numbers aren't far off from what he did in the minors so he just had to put it all together. A BABIP of .302 while league average was .304 showed this wasn't luck influenced. The only skill Santana now has to show is repeatability. He's for real. #3-Joe Saunders: 198IP, 8.5H/9, 4.7K/9, 1.9K:BB, 2.4BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.212WHIP, 130ERA+ The vagaries of ERA! Saunders actually had a lower ERA than Santana but simply can't compare to him regarding his peripheral stats. Saunders is probably one spot too high and if Nick Adenhart ever comes around he'll be a 5th starter for the Angels behind Weaver too. Saunders was helped immensely by his BABIP. It sat for the season at .267 while league average was .304. That'll correct itself out and unless Saunders lowers his walk rate and his HR-rate while at least getting to league average K/9, his numbers will correct too, but not in teh way Angels fans are hoping for. As I've always said, there is value in a guy like Saunders because he takes the ball everyday and for the most part can keep you in a game. The value is in the back of the rotation waiting for something better to come along. #4-Jered Weaver: 176.7IP, 8.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 2.8K:BB, 2.8BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.285WHIP, 103ERA+ The #3 starter. I put him one spot too low. Weaver keeps getting better with each passing year. He's only going to be 26-years old so he's still relatively young for a starting pitcher, especially one coming out of college. Because of all the hype, Weaver might never reach all the expectations that are coming his way. Last year sure looked like a pretty big growth year for him, but what is sort of weird amid all that growth is that Weaver doesn't really throw hard for a right handed hitter who is as big as he is. According to FanGraphs, Weaver's average fastball sits at 89.9mph! That's it? It's intereting because the area where he improved the most was missing bats. If the hype around Weaver wasn't the size of King Kong, could anyone really be unhappy with the above stat line coming from your #3 starter? #5-Dustin Moseley: 50.3IP, 12.5H/9, 6.6K/9, 1.9K:BB, 3.6BB/9, 1.1HR/9, 1.788WHIP, 65ERA+ When did you say that Nick Adenhart kid was coming up? Moseley really isn't this bad. He registered a .430 BABIP! I mean how unlucky can the guy be? Did the Angels defenders just sit down when Moseley took the mound or did he just get smacked around the way Chris Brown smacks around Rihanna? Even when he's not being the unluckiest guy in the world, Moseley doesn't bring a ton to the table. He's sort of a soft tossing righty without great control who gives up more HR than he can afford to. He's going to be 27-years old and at this point I have a hard time believing the Angels are going to break camp with him in the rotation. SP-Nick Adenhart: 12IP, 13.5H/9, 3.0K/9, 0.3K:BB, 9.8BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 2.583WHIP, 49ERA+ OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE ANGELS ROTATION? I think a front 3 of Lackey, Santana & Weaver is the best in the AL West. The Mariners can put up a pretty good fight with their top-3 of Bedard & Hernandez but who knows if we'll ever get a full season out of Erik Bedard so even then I'd take LA's top-2. Weaver showed some definite growth and I think he's definitely on the uptick as far as his skills are concerned. Sure he can't hold runners on and he'll never reach the hype his college stats gave us, but he's getting better and he's young too. It would be nice for Nick Adenhart to join the rotation and give us some of the potential he's been showing in the minor leagues but LA is OK right this minute. Saunders & Moseley aren't the greatest 4-5 starters in the world, but Saunders can be effective at time and will at least take the ball. I still the rotation is one of the strongest parts of this Angels teams and it'll be the rotation and ultimately the bullpen that will push the Angels back to the top of the AL West for yet another year. What could be very interesting about this Angels team is if Adenhart pans out. If he does then Angels will have a front-4 that is pretty strong and will be pretty darn young. The Halos always seem to know how to use a bullpen so even with the bumps in the lineup, the pitching staff is holding it together. I'm a believer but they need that one extra starter that everyone is hoping Adenhart can be. 2009 ANGELS BULLPEN CL-Brian Fuentes: 62.7IP, 6.7H/9, 11.8K/9, 3.7K:BB, 3.2BB/9, 0.4HR/9, 1.101WHIP, 168ERA+ RP-Scot Shields: 63.3IP, 8.0H/9, 9.1K/9, 2.2K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.342WHIP, 165ERA+ RP-Jose Arredondo: 61IP, 6.2H/9, 8.1K/9, 2.5K:BB, 3.2BB/9, 0.4HR/9, 1.049WHIP, 274ERA+ RP-Kevin Jepsen: 8.3IP, 8.7H/9, 7.6K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.9BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.440WHIP, 103ERA+ LP-Darrin Oliver: 72IP, 8.4H/9, 6.0K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.0BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.153WHIP, 155ERA+ RP-Jason Bulger: 16IP, 8.4H/9, 11.3K/9, 2.2K:BB, 5.1BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.500WHIP, 61ERA+ RP-Justin Speirer: 68IP, 9.1H/9, 7.4K/9, 2.1K:BB, 3.6BB/9, 2.0HR/9, 1.412WHIP, 88ERA+ RP-Shane Loux: 16IP, 9.0H/9, 2.3K/9, 2.0K:BB, 1.1BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.125WHIP, 158ERA+ No matter what, year in and year out the Angels seem to have a solid and sometimes spectacular bullpen. Last season was no different with K-Rod blasting away at Bobby Thigpen's All-Time saves record, finishing the year with a record breaking 62 saves! According to the 2009 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, the Angels WPA for their bullpen ranked 4th in the entire major leagues behind the Yankees, Rays and Phillies. The great news is that pretty much the entire staff is back. I don't think Brian Fuentes is going to be a downgrade from Francisco Rodriguez. Sure Rodriguez put up the gaudy save numbers from last season, but let's take a look at their peripheral stats and see how much difference the players actually had: Fuentes: 6.7H/9, 11.8K/9, 3.7K:BB, 3.2BB/9, 0.4HR/9, FIP = 2.26 K-Rod: 7.1H/9, 10.1K/9, 2.3K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 0.5HR/9, FIP = 3.14 The numbers don't lie. Fuentes was a flat out better pitcher than K-Rod in 2008 despite Rodriguez having more saves. FIP is "fielding independent ERA". It's what the ERA might look like if the defense didn't have any say in the outcome of batted balls. Guess what? Fuentes is better there too! The bottom line is that it would seem like the Angels bullpen took a step backwards in losing K-Rod, but the numbers actually say the Angels got even better! Incredible I think the emergence of Jose Arredondo and the potential that Jason Bulger showed last season only makes the pen even more incredible. Of the above players I think Loux doesn't make the squad and that Speier's HR-rate was a huge statistical anomaly. He's never given up that many HR in his life! That's just incredible. Again, like I say, the Angels have a way with bullpens and 2009 isn't going to be any different for them. It's rock solid and most likely a bit better than the 2008 version. OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 ANGELS People are sort of down on the Angels because they won 100 games last season but their Pythagorean showed they were more of an 88-win team. The thing most people forget is that 88-wins would have been more than enough to win the AL West in 2008! The Rangers came in 2nd place last season with 79-wins so technically the Angels could have played to their Pythagorean and still won the division by 9-games. For me I'm projected the Angels to finish in 1st Place in the A.L. West. It just makes sense. We can bang on their offense and be justified in doing so, but with the addition of Bobby Abreu, the Angels get a middle order bat that will help out. He won't be spectacular but a .290-20-90 year is something they were going to get nowhere near with either Reggie Willits or Gary Matthews out in LF. It brings that position more in line with offensive norms. I still believe in Howie Kendrick for some strange reason and if Mike Napoli can stay healthy, the kid may hit 30HR. The real strength in my opinion is the pitching. Lackey this season won't start the year on the DL and I think the gains Ervin Santana made last season are legitimate. Weaver is making progress and the bullpen is going to be rock solid. To me that's the difference. The A's & Rangers all have the potential to be better offensive teams than the Angels. The Rangers will certainly score more runs than LA and I almost can't see how Oakland won't either, but neither team can boast of a starting-3 rotation the way the Angels can and neither can boast of a bullpen that will be as good as LA's right now. Pitching simply wins ballgames. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3