[情報] Los Angeles Angels Top 5
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1. Jordan Walden
Standing 6-foot-5, 220 lbs., Walden was drafted in the 12th round of
the 2006 draft. He signed for $1,000,000 through the now extinct
draft-and-follow process. A highly touted high school righthander,
Walden has the ability to miss bats (22.0% '08 K) as well as induce
a lot of ground balls. And with the exception of last July, he has also
demonstrated solid command (8.1% career BB). Walden has a high ceiling
and floor -- could be a No. 3 starter or better. He was too much for the
Midwest League last season, inducing ground balls at a 64% clip along
with a 2.96 FIP (426 TBF). His 2.85 K/BB ratio was solid, but his 21.4 K%
fell slightly below some expectations. Promoted to the California League
in late July, Walden started off shaky (14.7 BB%, 20.6 K% in July; 68 TBF)
but settled down nicely. He struck out 23.4% overall at the hitter-friendly
level (214 TBF). The 2009 season could be Walden's true breakout year.
2. Nick Adenhart
A curious case as a pitching prospect, but unlike Benjamin Button,
Nick Adenhart hasn't exactly gotten better with age. He was in competition
for a rotation spot with the Angels last season but wound up spending
almost the entire season struggling against Triple-A hitters (4.95 FIP)
-- it's worth noting that he was in a hitter's park and league. Adenhart
was exceptinoal in Low-A (23.4% K, 6.1% BB, good in High-A (21.0, 7.3),
and solid in Double-A (17.3, 9.7) before dissapointing in Triple-A
(16.8, 11.5). While he has always had youth on his side, looking back,
perhaps we should have been wearier of his .283 Low-A BABIP, as well as
his incredibly low 1% HR/Air rate. Even though his strikeout and walk rates
have declined at each of his minor league stops, they are still solid
enough to give him middle-of-the-rotation upside, even if his floor is
dropping like an elevator.
3. Hank Conger
Like most minor league catching prospects, Conger still needs to prove he
can stick behind the plate. But when you couple his bat with a chance of
catching in the major leagues one day, you have a very solid prospect.
The 25th pick in the 2006 draft, Conger has shown some pop
(.179 Midwest League IsoP, .214 California League), though his plate
discipline is discouraging (6.6% in 2007, 4.4% in 2008). Youth is one of
the biggest advantages the 6-foot, 205 pound switch-hitter has on his
side -- he turned 21 last month. Conger was sidelined for most of 2008
with back spasms and a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder,
which limited him to designated hitting. His value will take a huge hit
if he has to move to the other end of the defensive spectrum
(i.e., first base or designated hitter). The bat would certainly play
above-average at backstop, but he may not have enough going in the
patience/power departments to play at a premium offensive position.
4. Trevor Reckling
Following the top three, the Angels have a plethora of pitching prospects
in the mix. Reckling's pro performance to this point is the reason we are
giving him the nod as the Angels 4th best prospect. A 6-foot-2 lefthander,
Reckling has shown the ability to strike hitters out (23.1% career) and
get plenty of grounders (55% career). Following a 36.0 inning stint in
the AZL where he was untouchable (4.7 BB%, 37.2 K%, 55 GB%), Reckling
continued to pitch well in Low-A (3.75 FIP). And although his strikeout
rate dropped dramatically from rookie ball to Low-A (19.9%), his showing
was strong for a teenager -- 5th-youngest SP in Low-A last season.
Reckling had command issues to begin 2008 (11.8% in April/May/June;
356 TBF) but he settled down as the season went on (5.9% in July/August;
287 TBF). His solid rates leave us thinking he has middle-of-the-rotation
upside, although it's still early enough in his career that he could have
a breakout year.
5. William Smith
Many 18-year-old pitching prospects are considered “raw”, “wild”, or
“a project”. This is not the case with William Smith. Pinpoint command
is the name of his game. This coming from a 6-foot-5 left-hander, offers
plenty of reason to get excited. Making his pro debut after being selected
in the 7th round of the 2008 Draft, Smith walked an astonishingly low 2.0%
of the 298 Pioneer League batters he faced while striking out 25.5%.
Before you get too excited, be aware that some pitching prospects --
especially lefties -- can put up amazing numbers in the low minors by
commanding their pitches. But still, Smith’s command actually improved
each month -- he walked 0.7% in August and September (141 TBF); 26.2% K.
Based on what we’ve seen from him, it’s safe to say that Smith has some
of the best command in the minors. If he can retain his ability to strike
batters out, as well as continue to get a solid amount of grounders
(50% last season), I see no reason for him not to break out in full-season
ball this year.
6. Mark Trumbo (1/16/86)
The California League is a great place to have a breakout season, and
that’s exactly what Mark Trumbo did in 2008. With the lack of a
long-term first baseman in the Angels system, Trumbo has a good chance
to eventually claim the everyday job eventually. But he’ll need tom make
some crucial adjustments first, primarily with his plate discipline.
Trumbo managed to walk in just 5.7% of his plate appearances last season
(in A+/AA). He did, however, make big strides in the power department.
Following back-to-back Midwest League seasons of poor slugging
(.135 isoP in ‘06, .155 isoP in ‘07), he managed a .270 in High-A
Rancho Cucamonga, then .220 in Double-A (133 PA). Trumbo also doesn’t
strike out too much (16.8% in ‘08). If he improves upon his ability to
take walks, Trumbo could start receiving a lot of hype in 2009.
Honorables: Mark Trumbo (1B), Sean O'Sullivan (RHP), Ryan Mount (2B),
Clayton Fuller (CF), and Peter Bourjos (CF).
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