Re: Whatever Happened to Ichiro?
※ 引述《Ayukawayen (這不素M當勞)》之銘言:
: 如果要考慮防守 阻止對方跑者進壘應該也是一個考量 但這個更沒辦法做
這個有人做過, 方法是找出全聯盟整年所有落在外野或穿出內野的
球的落點分布, 然後統計落點位置與壘打數的相關性. 然後再針對
單一外野手守備時, 球的落點分布與壘打數的相關性, 與平均值比
較, 就可以知道該野手阻止跑者推進的能力, 並能具體換算出每年
有幾個壘包的價值.
其結果是一朗領先美聯, 第二名是給雷肉. 網址我找不到了, 只知道
那不是一般有名的sabermetrics棒球網站, 該文的聯結是我在某網路
留言板上看到的, 當時真該記下來, 不然事後要從那成千上萬的留
言裡過濾出來還真難.
不過我不是很喜歡這種分析方式. 其結果可以直接等同於該選手在
防止多壘打這方面的"價值"沒錯, 但不見得真的等同於選手在這方
面的"能力". 能力是要直接顯現在野手長傳阻殺企圖多進壘的跑者,
上述這種分析頂多證明跑者畏懼這野手的長傳能力, 所以不會企圖
多進壘, 這是建立在野手手臂的名聲上, 不見得真的等於野手的能力.
所以這是一種間接統計, 而且參雜了跑者與跑壘指導教練的心理因素.
總之, 現在的防守數據都像披一層紗一樣, 還有很大的進步空間.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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