有沒有這麼好 (爛) ?
Q:
Would you take prospects 16-30 in the 2014 Astros system over the 1-15
prospects of the Astros’ 2010 system?
你會不會拿太空人今年的Top 16-30換2010年的Top 1- 15???
BA:
Interesting question. Could the back end of one of the best farm systems
in baseball top the front end of one of the worst farm systems in the game?
The Astros had the 30th-ranked farm system heading into the 2010 season, but
looking back, it was not one of the all-time worst systems.
The 2010 Astros had three Top 100 Prospects, with catcher Jason Castro (No.
41), shortstop Jio Mier (No. 71) and righthander Jordan Lyles (No. 91). To
compare, the Angels are the 30th-ranked farm system in the Prospect Handbook
this year and they have one, possibly two, players in Top 100 Prospects
consideration. In fact, I’d argue that the Astros farm system going into the
2008 season, when the club also ranked 30th, was worse than the 2010 edition.
That year, catcher J.R. Towles (No. 53) was the only Astros prospect to crack
our Top 100.
2010不夠爛 要就玩大一點的2008 XD
2010的BA Top 100有三個Castro, Mier, Lyles
2008的BA Top 100只有一個Towles
After Towles, the Astros did have outfielder Michael Bourn (No. 4) and Bud
Norris (No. 5) on their Top 10 prospects list, but the system was quite thin
with Chris Johnson (No. 13) as the only other Top 30 prospect to go on to
have a significant career. Johnson also ranked No. 16 on the Astros’ 2010
list.
不過2008後面有藏了Bourn (#4)和Norris (#5)還有Chris Johnson(#13)
So both the Astros’ 2008 and 2010 systems were thin, but each produced a
potential star, which makes up for the depth the system lacked. The 2010
Astros list has Castro, who produced a 4.5 WAR season in 2013 while making
the American League all-star team. If he can keep that up, the Astros will
not be the least productive system from 2010.
簡單的說再怎麼爛前15還是會有砂礫中的大珍珠
The 2008 list had Bourn, who has averaged .277/.342/.375 with 48 steals over
the past five seasons, as well as a useful back-end starter in Norris. Both
also produced a serviceable third baseman in Johnson.
In other words, while the Astros were thin in 2010 (and 2008), it’s going to
be hard for the back of this year’s list to produce similarly significant
players. I’m not going to list all 15 of those players—sorry, that’s
reserved for those who buy the book, which we encourage you to do—but the
16-30 for this year includes useful big league-ready relievers such as Kevin
Chapman, potential back-end starters such as Nick Tropeano, Kyle Smith and
Kent Emmanuel, longshot power arms Jandel Gustave and Reymin Guduan and
high-ceiling position players like Brett Phillips.
基本上今年的Top 16-30有很多的堪用球員
但是要出現像Castro/Bourn這種等級的機率還是很低的
Houston will likely find some future useful big leaguers among that group,
but you’d have to be extremely optimistic to believe that any of them will
match the production of Castro or Bourn. Given a choice, I’d clearly take
the Astros’ 2010 top 15 compared to the 16-30 on this year’s list.
所以當然不要換......
If we reshape the question, however, we might make it more interesting: How
about this year’s 11-30 against the 2010 Top 10?
如果以量取勝 改成今年的11-30換2010的Top 10??
The Astros are one of the deepest systems in baseball when it comes to
potential everyday players. Rio Ruiz, Max Stassi, Delino Deshields Jr., Josh
Hader and Andrew Thurman would have made a lot of Top 10s this year, but they
had to be content to sit at 11-15 on this year’s Astros list.
今年的11-15在很多球隊都可以進top 10 所以這樣賭比較有趣 ...
[說溜嘴了 11-15有Ruiz, Stassi, Deshield, Harder, Thurman XDD]
While that quintet might not match the production of Castro or Bourn, it’s
not unrealistic to see the Astros getting one or two everyday regulars out of
the group. Add in the depth of the system’s remaining prospects, and that
group of 20 against the Top 10 from the 2010 group would be a very close
call. Forced to choose, I’d still take the 2010 group because Castro has
developed into one of the better catchers in the American League. But I’d be
almost equally happy with the current Astros’ 11-30.
想要幹掉Castro和Bourn並不太容易 不過以量取勝今年的這一大包可以累加不少
所以這就讓人難決定了......不過硬要選他還是寧願選一個Castro
--
這篇其實已經是後見之明了..... Castro或許當初BA對他的評價就很不錯
但是當時的BA一定沒有預期Bourn/Norris/Johnson可以長成現在這樣
[Johnson小時候是有的但是越長評價越低 XD 到高階的時候大概就平價普通了]
--
prospect還是poespect...
Deshield有沒有機會比Bourn好? 有, 但是只是有機會
Ruiz和Stassi加起來不如一個Castro?? 當然不一定 但是還是失敗的機會很高的...
Thurman在太空人系統被Dororo化了 去年第40順位的球員... 他也是破百萬簽約金的 XDD
雖然他的tool不是太頂尖 但是可以這麼早被選 也不是沒原因的
他的變速球投的很好 ... make up也很好 所以他可能會比預期的早被叫上來
他的control遠優於command... 這個若是能微調 會是個不錯的中後段輪值
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