2009 OAKLAND ATHLETICS SEASON PREVIEW

看板Athletics作者abc12812時間16年前 (2009/02/08 16:45)推噓4(4推 0噓 1→)

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"Lou" from my comments asked for the A's and he shall receive them! I really wanted to do Oakland anyway so this just put it over the top for me to do something a reader wanted me to! It was fun doing it so keep pouring in the suggestions and I'll see what I can do! The A's are by far one of the most interesting teams in the game if only because you have to look at them in light of what happened during the Moneyball era to try and see where they went wrong. This is especially interesting in light of what is going on with the Tampa Bay Rays and will actually show a market inefficiency that few if any teams are able to see, unless you see it with the Rays. That would mean Tampa is really here to stay and that Chuck LaMar and Andrew Friedman might be uber-genius. Billy Beane took over GM duties in Oakland in 1998. That year the A's went 74-88 before going 87-75 in Beane's second year. That winning record in 1999 was the first Oakland had had since 1992. In 1993 the A's were terrible and thus beginning in 1994, the A's were at the top of the heap re: the amateur draft in acquiring talent. Remember Sandy Alderson preceded Beane in Oakland as GM so the A's weren't working with an incompetent GM. So let's take a look at some of those players in the draft Oakland was able to acquire: 1994: Ben Grieve 1995: nobody of account 1996: Eric Chavez 1997: Tim Hudson 1998: Mark Mulder 1999: Barry Zito Oakland's 1st winning record came in 2000 when they went 91-70 and won the AL West. Big players on that team were Jason Giambi (2002 draft pick), Miguel Tejada (1993 amatuer signing), Ben Grieve (1994 draft pick), Ramon Hernandez (1993 amateur signing), along with the embryonic development of Hudson, Mulder & Zito, or more affectionately known as, The Big 3! From 2000-2003 the A's won 393 games (98 wins per season) but in 2004 it was over. Jason Giambi had left for New York after 2002 and Tejada was gone in 2004. After the 2004 season, Hudson & Mulder were gone and the nucleus that surrounded the A's of 2000-2004 were all but gone. What hurts Oakland for the most part now is that there player development squad didn't give them the same types of players who made them successful in the first place. Rich Harden was plagued by injuries. Dan Meyer didn't work out. Dan Haren left for Arizona and the offense never recreated the type of offense Oakland had during it's glory run. Eric Chavez got eaten up by injuries. Bobby Crosby has become a huge bust. Nick Swisher was traded to try and rebuild what Beane rebuilt from the beginning. The same can be said fo Tampa Bay too. Right now they are coming off horrible years in which they had top draft picks that have worked out, but if they stay as a small market club, then Tampa Bay has to deal with the same situations as Oakland did when they were facing problems of their own. The big problem is how to solve them. Oakland really hasn't yet. They are getting closer but the draft hasn't produced like they have wanted to and guys like Ramon Hernandez & Miguel Tejada haven't been coming from abroad. It's a tough situation and if anyone can figure it out it's Beane. He's shifted his philosophy somewhat recently in very much valuing defense which has been very good to a very average pitching staff, but unfortunately that method hasn't translated to more wins. I don't think Beane is done re-tooling the A's, but he's getting closer. I think the 2009 A's most likely represent the biggest BOOM/BUST squad in the majors this season. If things fall rigth this team coudl tear right through the AL West, but if they fall wrong, the A's are going to be looking at another dismal year with the mindset of believing in the process and Billy Beane. The major maket inefficiency facing small market teams isn't grabbing an undervalued statistical category like OBP% or RZR, but rather how to enjoy success from what you've built and keep perpetuating that success for subsequent years. The A's didn't achieve that when guys like Giambi, Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Foulke, Hernandez, Dye, Damon, Swisher and Tejada left. Can the Rays figure it out before they fall into the valley? Let's take a look at where Oakland stands for 2009. 2009 ATHLETICS STARTING LINEUP C-Kurt Suzuki: 279/346/370; 7HR, 25-2B, 42RBI, 12.0AB/BB, 2SB, 97OPS+ I really want to keep looking at Dioner Navarro as a pretty good comp to this guy but Navarro is a better hitter with a lot more potential to hit for power than Suzuki so maybe he's a poor man's Navarro? Offensively Suzuki makes good contact, but the real hole in his game has been the lack of power. He hit 7HR in 2007 in 213AB. In 2008, he garnered 500+AB and still hit just 7 HR while his walk ratio actually declined! In the minors he had a career .419SLG% so maybe there really isn't any power there. The other area where Suzuki comes up short against Navarro is that Navarro is one of the best defensive catchers in the game while Suzuki is merely average. I guess I'm completely off on my comparison there! At this point Suzuki is entrenched as the starting catcher. Rob Bowen isn't going to be cutting into his playing time but if Suzuki can just be league average, the A's are getting him on the cheap until they can find somebody better. And if the power develops just a bit? Then that's just another feather in Beane's cap. 1B-Jason Giambi: 247/373/502; 32HR, 19-2B, 96RBI, 6.0AB/BB, 2SB, 128OPS+ The prodigal son returns. Giambi spent 7 years with Oakland before heading to New York and he then spent 7 years as a Yankee. No matter what though, how many people view him as an Athletic rather than a Yankee? I'm a YANKEES HOMER and I'll always view Giambi as that guy from Oakland, rather than a New York Yankee. Firstbase is sort of interesting for the A's. In fact, how to get Giambi, Buck, Cust & Barton time in the lineup will be interesting for the A's. My guess is that Barton goes back to AAA given how much younger he is than everyone else. Giambi does have a team option for 2010 but by that time he'll be 39-years old so maybe injury risks will have come into play moreso than they already are. If he's healthy, I think the A's can expect 30+HR and an OPS+ in the 120s maybe getting into the 130s. That is incredible production considering what Barton did for Oakland last year at 1B. Beane & Co. have really been emphasizing defense lately which of course isn't the Giambino's strong suit, BUT I think the A's are better offensively with Giambi, Buck & Cust in the lineup at this point meaning Barton is the odd man out. I absolutely love Giambi coming back to Oakland. I wish he would have never left! 2B-Mark Ellis: 233/321/373; 12HR, 20-2B, 41RBI, 8.3AB:BB, 14SB, 90OPS+ He's virtually flawless as a defensive 2B. Ellis had the best RZR (relative zone rating) in the AL last season at the keystone and it wasn't even close. He made the 6th most plays out of zone in '08 and it's entirely possible to argue he was the best defensive 2B in the AL in 2008. Offensively, the shoulder problems he had last year sort of hampered him quite a bit, but when you look at his peripheral stats, he was actually better than 2007 when he had an OPS+ of 110. He became more disciplined at the plate and if Ellis can put it all together, you have a dynamite fielding 2B to go along with 15HR and an OPS+ of 110-115. That is nothing to laugh at. In fact, it almost seems like Ellis might be one of the more underrated players in baseball relative to his skill set. Ellis is an all around solid player. 3B-Eric Chavez: 247/295/393; 2HR, 7-2B, 14RBI, 14.8AB:BB, 0SB, 87OPS+ Interestingly enough, Chavez is only going to be 31-years old. It's interesting because it seems like the guy has been around forever, but also because he could still have 2-prime years in him if you believe prime years end at the age of 32. He's a long way away from those great years he put up from 2000-2004, but Chavez has been hit hard by the injury bug and when I say hit hard, I mean he's been hit by a MACK TRUCK! From the reports I've read, Chavez feels like he's ahead of schedule from his shoulder surgery and should be ready to do full duty when Spring Training rolls around which really isn't that far away. It's sort of unfair to think about what Chavez might be able to do. He's been injured in 2004, 2006, 2007 & 2008. He was healthy in 2005 but that was bookended by injuries. You have to go back to 2003 to get a healthy year uninhibited by injury. That year Chavez had an OPS+ of 126 with 29HR and 101RBI. Defensively, it's hard to tell what will happen with the injuries to Chavez given how much back pain he's been in over the last couple of years. His RZR has falled off dramatically although he really hasn't had too many innings. His Rate2 stats say he was the best he's ever been at 3B with a Rate2 of 117 although his RZR wasn't great. If Chavez can be 100% then he could have a pretty big year especially given all the protection in the lineup. He's not the main guy anymore the way he was when Giambi & Tejada left. It sounds crazy but during his run from 2000-2004 I think the prevailing thought was that Chavez's ceiling could have been even higher. Heck, Billy Beane was comparing the guy to Barry Bonds in Moneyball, so there is still some room for consolidation here. Will it happen in 2009? The odds are certainly against it, but there is definitely high risk/high reward possibilities here. If he stays healthy I see no reason why Chavez could hit 25HR and get an OPS+ of 120. Given what Oakland got last season, that would be a huge upgrade. SS-Bobby Crosby: 237/296/349; 7HR, 39-2B, 61RBI, 11.8AB:BB, 7SB, 76OPS+ Let's face it, Crosby's ROY year in 2004 was overrated. Sure he hit 22HR as a shortstop but his OPS+ that year was 93! It wasn't a great year for rookies in the AL back in '04, but Zack Greinke and Alexis Rios were in that class too. They finished 4th & 5th respectively. At the end of the day, Crosby finally got rid of injuryitis and 145 games. He was fringe average defensively and couldn't hit at all which means Crosby has never really hit at the major league level! I'm really trying hard to find something positive to say about Crosby, but there aren't any. He's a utility infielder AT BEST and the A's get rid of him after this season. If he can stay healthy then I guess the A's have one less worry in the lineup. That's a positive thing. They can also bat him 9th to limit his plate appearances which is a good thing too. Oakland fans have to be hoping that Crosby really tears it up this season given that he's in a contract year. That's about the best I can say. LF-Matt Holliday: 321/409/538; 25HR, 38-2B, 88RBI, 7.3AB:BB, 28SB, 140OPS+ The big question with Holliday is how much of it is Coors Field related? For his career, he's posted a 1.068 OPS at Coors Field. He's posted an .803 OPS on the road. He's moving to Oakland which can't help his prospects much given that Oakland is a notorious pitcher's park. As strange as it may sound, however, Billy Beane pulled off a considerable coup when signing Holliday. Obviously he's a force offensively as long as he doesn't play in a huge park. That will have considerable trade value at the deadline if say a team like Atlanta or Cincinnati is competing at the dealine. If worse comes to worse, Holliday is going to the open market where he'll be a type-A free agent who'll certainly leave Oakland meaning the A's get a couple of extra draft picks as compensation. The A's covet draft picks so there is another reason to like Holliday. As a hitter, he's peaked out. His age-27 year certainly looks like his "career" year so if A's fans are hoping for an OPS+ of 150, they are going to be disappointed. If the A's get out of Holliday what the Rockies got out of him last season, they'll be lucky. He's not a .320 hitter. If they get 25HR and a .900 OPS they'll have gotten a steal I think and it will certainly push the A's very far in competing for the AL West. CF-Ryan Sweeney: 286/350/383; 5HR, 18-2B, 45RBI, 10.1AB:BB, 9SB, 101OPS+ The OPS+ of 101 is OK I guess. Sweeney came over to Oakland in the Swisher deal but he sort of sucks. He's really not a CF but he certainly can't hit to play a corner spot either. Sweeney has been sort of a disappointment his whole career. He came up in the White Sox chain and A TON was expected of him. In 2007 he was the White Sox top prospect! The thought was that he'd develop quite a bit of power, but that hasn't really happened yet and it seems more and more like it won't happen. He'll only be 24-years old so he's not old by any means but at 23-years of age he had a SLG% of .383! That isn't getting it done at all! I suppose the A's are going to see if Corey Brown can fix some of his contact issues. Brown has plenty of juice in his bat. He had 30HR and 16SB last season in the minor leagues so Oakland is hoping Sweeney can hold out until 2010 probably. If Oakland can get the 101OPS+ repeat from 2008, they'd have to be pretty happy about that. RF-Travis Buck: 226/291/432; 7HR, 9-2B, 25RBI, 14.1AB:BB, 1SB, 95OPS+ Minor injuries ruined the guy but you have to love what he did in 2007 as a rookie. It's hard to decide what is right about Buck's two-year period. His BABIP in 2007 was .354 while his BABIP in 2008 was .255! That's a helluva swing. If we simply divide the difference his BABIP should be around .300. He's too young to have an established hit level so that is probably the best we can do at this point. The injuries cloud the picture a bit with him but if we are giving him the benefit of the doubt then I think he can be a pretty darn productive player in RF. I'm certainly not inclined to think Oakland would be better with Giambi at DH, Cust in RF and Barton in 1B. I'd much rather have Cust at DH, Buck in RF and Giambi at 1B. Buck will be 25-years old this season. Oakland is an odd team in that it loves the college talent. The bad part about that is that the talent gets there at 25-26 years of age and if they don't respond by then, they may never respond. It's certainly a good way of trying to compete with a low budget, but at the same time, Oakland hasn't really won anything either. DH-Jack Cust: 231/375/476; 33HR, 19-2B, 77RBI, 4.3AB:BB, 0SB, 132OPS+ So everyone was right in that he couldn't .256 again! He still put up a 132OPS+. Cust is a MASSIVE 3-true outcomes player. He had 57% of his plate apperances go for either walks, strikeouts or HR in 2008. Cust is what he is. He's going to draw a ton of walks, strikeout even more and hit 30+HR. I don't see exactly what the downside of that equation is as long as the end results are the same. If he snags a 132 OPS+ from the DH position, well isn't that doing exactly what the DH should be doing? I've said this before a million times, but at the end of the day, too many AL teams take the DH for granted. All the player is required to do is hit and help his team offensively. That teams put league average hitters in a position that only requires hitting is ridiculous! I think the A's get this one right with having Cust there. All the kid does is get on base and hit homers. Sure he strikesout a ton, but an out is an out is an out is an out. Is it somehow better to fly out to left everytime? 2009 ATHLETICS BENCH C-Rob Bowen: 176/219/286; 1HR, 5-2B, 9RBI, 22.8AB:BB, 0SB, 37OPS+ IF-Cliff Pennington: 242/339/293; 0HR, 5-2B, 9RBI, 7.6AB:BB, 4SB, 76OPS+ IF-Jack Hannahan: 218/305/342; 9HR, 27-2B, 47RBI, 7.9AB:BB, 2SB, 77OPS+ OF-Chris Denorfia: 290/362/387; 1HR, 3-2B, 9RBI, 10.3AB:BB, 2SB, 106OPS+ OF-Rajai Davis: 243/272/346; 3HR, 5-2B, 19RBI, 26.8AB:BB, 25SB, 68OPS+ OF-Eric Patterson: 192/284/246; 1HR, 4-2B, 15RBI, 7.6AB:BB, 10SB, 44OPS+ I think one of those outfielders won't make it and my guess is that it's probably Patterson. It's not a fantastic bench by any means although I suppose you could make the case that Pennington would be better as a starting SS than Crosby would be if only because of the walk rate and the better ability to get on base. Neither really have power and they are pretty much a push on defense. Bowen & Hannahan are brutal players. The A's really need both Kurt Suzuki & Eric Chavez to be healthy. I think they are safe with Suzuki, but they need a serious backup for Chavez at the hot corner. Denorfia is a pretty solid 4/5 outfieder while Davis really doesn't fit into the skill set the A's like. He doesn't get on base and his game is pretty much stealing bases on the rare occasion he does get on base. On the face of it, it doesn't look like a great bench but it actually sets up pretty well. I think Holliday is golden in LF so that isn't a worry. If they start with Barton down on the farm then they could take an injury to either Buck/Giambi/Cust and just plug Barton in where the other one got injured with a little mix match. If Crosby goes down, sliding in Pennington isn't a bad thing really. Denorfia might actually be an upgrade over Sweeney in CF so that wouldn't be bad either! Pennington could also play 2B but I'd rather not have Ellis down. What the A's certainly can't afford is having Suzuki or Chavez go down. There simply isn't anyone that can take the brunt of that. Bowen & Hannahan aren't viable options. The other bad part is that the A's can only have one of the trio of Buck/Giambi/Cust get injured at any one time. If they happen in clusters then the A's are going to be hurting. It's not a great bench but I can see how it works out fairly well. OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE OAKLAND OFFENSE? The A's ranked dead last in RS/G in the AL in 2008. That's a lot to build upon really, but if you are last, the only place to go is up. After being dead last in offense, there is a tremendous amount of upside to this group. Adding in guys like Giambi & Holliday are HUGE! I don't think any other team in baseball added that kind of thumping ability between two players. Giambi is coming home and Holliday is playing for a contract. Those boys should be motivated. The other thing to like about Oakland is that injuries did hit them fairly hard. They really didn't have Eric Chavez or Mark Ellis last season and those 2 should be pretty good. Travis Buck was dinged up quite a bit too so I think you could see some nice rebound offense from that trio. That gives the A's some serious punch with Holliday, Giambi, Ellis, Chavez & Buck. Throw in an already dangerous hitter in Cust and you have 6 legitimate players who can hit pretty stinkin' well! That leaves Suzuki, Sweeney & Crosby. With Suzuki & Sweeney you can argue that they might get better because last season was their first full years in the major leagues as every day starters. That's an adjustment. Suzuki has a 97 OPS+ and Sweeney had a 101 OPS+. Those are close to league average. If the A's got that out of those two again, I don't think they'd complain. That leaves Crosby who has almost no upside other than he might be playing for a contract. Maybe that makes him a just a smidge better. I'm not sure Beane's master plans are completed but this is an offense that looks pretty nice to me. It might not be as good as Boston's or New York's, but if you consider Chavez healthy, then a middle of the order lineup of Giambi, Hollilday, Buck, Cust, and Chavez doesn't look all that bad. I think the upside of this offense is top-5. I don't thin I'm exaggerating that either. If injuries hit it'll be a lost season, but no way does Oakland finish dead last again in runs scored. 2009 ATHLETICS STARTING ROTATION #1-Justin Duchscherer: 141.7IP, 6.8H/9, 6.0K/9, 2.8K:BB, 2.2BB/9, 0.7HR/9, 0.995WHIP, 159ERA+ Those numbers look pretty darn good for Duchscherer. He was even an All-Star selection last season and had people wondering why the A's kept him in the pen for so long when he was this dominant as a starter. Underneath the numbers, we find a BABIP at .240! As a hitter you make your own established level of BABIP. As a pitcher you hang at league average, which in the case of the AL in 2008 was .304! So Duchscherer was WAY UNDER! He had an incredible first half, compiling a 1.82ERA in 108.7IP, but hip injuries in August put him on the shelf. If he could have kept going, Duchscherer would have definitley been in on the Cy Young voting. The Duke works off a fastball/cutter/curveball trio with his fastball averaging about 87mph. That's well below average, but he mixes and matches well and knows how to keep the ball in the strikezone. The BABIP is going to make an adjustment. There is no doubt about that, but he doesn't walk hitters and keeps the ball in the yard. That'll help out a lot even if he does give up more hits in 2009. He's got to stay healthy for Oakland as he's the ace of the staff in name if not in skillset. #2-Sean Gallagher: 115.3IP, 9.2H/9, 8.0K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.526WHIP, 83ERA+ I actually really like Gallagher. It seemed in the last couple of years when WGN had Cubs games on, Gallagher was pitching. He pumps his fastball in at 92mph which is pretty good and it can go as high as 94mph which is even better. What I like more about Gallagher is his curveball. He's got a couple of them. The one is a normal 11-to-6 deuce with the right velocity, but he also throws some type of spinner up there around 69-72mph that makes you think of Orlando Hernandez! I can't help but love those kinds of curveballs! As you can see, Gallagher's big problem is his control. During his minor league career he averaged 3.5BB/9 and he probably needs to get that to at least 3 at the major league level. He does a pretty decent job of keeping the ball in the yard and he has the stuff to strike hitters out. Baseball America last season in their Prospect Book said his ceiling was that of Jon Lieber's. I don't know. Part of it is that Lieber and Gallagher are heavily built but not 6'6" or 6'5". Then again, having a Jon Lieber career isn't bad. He's been in the majors for 14-years! He just needs to work on that control to take the next step. #3-Dallas Braden: 71.7IP, 9.7H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.6K:BB, 3.1BB/9, 1.0HR/9, 1.423WHIP, 98ERA+ Braden is a lefty screwball pitcher believe it or not! That's like vintage Fernando Valenzuela except Braden doesn't throw hard with his fastball averaging out aroun 88mph! A screwball is like a backwards slider. Typically a lefty will throw a slider and it'll break in towards right handed batters. The screwball is the exact opposite in that it'll break into left handed hitters and away from righties. It's like a right handed slider except it's coming out of a left handed armslot. In the minors, Braden ran over minor league hitters with it because the ball is simply too tricky to hit and well, we are talking about minor league hitters. Major league hitters had an easier time laying off the pitch. There is definitely some upside here. Braden spent half the season in AAA-Sacramento and there he posted a 2.36ERA while striking out 9.1K/9 and walking just 1.9BB/9. The issue with Braden, like Gallagher is control and better command. That's easier said that done. #4-Gio Gonzalez: 34IP, 8.5H/9, 9.0K/9, 1.4K:BB, 6.6BB/9, 2.4HR/9, 1.676WHIP, 53ERA+ Tremendous potential for this 23-year old but skills haven't consolidated just yet. Last year in AAA-Sacramento he put up the following line as a 22-year old: 123IP, 7.8H/9, 9.4K/9, 2.1K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.358WHIP, 4.24ERA Clearly the "stuff" is there evidenced by his 9.4K/9 in Sacramento and his 9.0K/9 in Oakland, but there are other problems with his skill set. Gonzalez walks entirely too many hitters. His fastball velocity is up for debate as well. In last year's Baseball America Prospect Book, they said his fastball sat at 92-93mph but FanGraphs said in Oakland his fastball averaged just under 90mph. He's a lefty so 90mph is still solid but not quite as good as keeping the fastball in the low-90s. The other problem is that Gonzalez got TORCHED by the HR ball at the major league level. It's somewhat surprising because Gonzalez's fastball has some sink on it allowing him to induce some groundballs, but he certainly kept his pitches up in Oakland. His out pitch is a pretty big yellow hammer he's not afraid to use. He's ready for the major leagues. There isn't anything left for him to prove at the minor league level really. It's just about getting his control straightened out which is seemingly a theme with this Oakland rotation. #5-Dana Eveland: 168IP, 9.2H/9, 6.3K/9, 1.5K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 1.482WHIP, 93ERA+ Eveland is pretty interesting and is an example of how luck and kill you. In the first half of 2008, Eveland 3.49ERA in 113.3IP. He wasn't pitching outstanding. He was walking 4.4BB/9IP! The real trick was his BABIP! In the first half it was .287! In the second half, Eveland posted a 6.09ERA in 54.7IP! Interestingly enough, it was during this time that Eveland improved his control, strikeout rate and command yet the ERA skyrocketed! The trick again was BABIP, which stood at .364! That's a massive spike! So essentially luck had a lot to do with Eveland's downfall in the 2nd half of 2008. The other problem with Eveland is conditioning. He's not in great condition and somewhat portly which caused him to shut it down in the 2nd half. There is skill set here. Eveland can keep the ball in the yard and remember his 2nd half numbers. That K/9 was 7.2 and his BB/9 was 3.5! If he can keep his HR/9 where it is and build off that 2nd half then Eveland could be a very good backend starter and possibly a solid #3. Just keeping his BABIP at league average with some good conditioning will push his ERA+ over 100 and give a chance to reach 200IP. SP-Josh Outman: 25.7IP, 11.9H/9, 6.7K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.8BB/9, 0.4HR/9, 1.636WHIP, 89ERA+ OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE ATHLETICS ROTATION? Interestingly enough the A's ranked 4th in the AL last season in both ERA & RA/G. If you go to the 2009 Hardball Times Annual you find out that their WPA (wins probability added) for their starting rotation was negative, yet they had great positive numbers for the pen. What that means is that Oakland's pitching was mainly a function of their bullpen being effective, playing in a big park, and having pretty darn good defense. For example, the league average BABIP was .304 yet Oakland's pitching BABIP was .292! That's a helluva bump for the A's and a feather in their cap. It's interesting to watch the various ways in which GM Billy Beane tries to skin a cap. I think now more than ever he's realizing how to use the defense and the park he plays in (more about this when I talk about Russ Springer) more to his advantage. Playing in Oakland allows for pitchers of a lesser skill set to thrive because fly balls tend to stay inside the park. There is a massive foul territory range allowing more foul balls to be turned into outs rather than extra pitches for the hitters. The A's had an excellent defense last season and they were 2nd in the AL in fewest home runs allowed. That obviously helped. This year they are going to need lots of the same thing. Gallagher, Braden & Gonzalez all have massive control problems. Duchscherer was a bit lucky with his BABIP and Eveland could have conditioning issues. Those are bunch of "ifs" waiting to happen and anytime you have a starting staff who loves to walk opposing hitters, I don't see how it's truly possibly for that rotation to be effective in anyway whatsoever. That simply isn't a recipe for success and it'll be interesting to see if the pen can somehow overcome those deficiencies the way they did in 2008. To be honest though, this rotation probably will battle the Orioles' rotation for worst in the American League if not the major leagues. There is some upside but it's way too soon for this quintet to do any damage at all. 2009 ATHLETICS BULLPEN CL-Brad Ziegler: 59.7IP, 7.1H/9, 4.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 3.3BB/9, 0.3HR/9, 1.156WHIP, 384ERA+ RP-Santiago Casilla: 50.3IP, 10.7H/9, 7.7K/9, 2.2K:BB, 3.6BB/9, 0.9HR/9, 1.589WHIP, 103ERA+ RP-Joey Devine: 45.7IP, 4.5H/9, 9.6K/9, 3.3K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 0.832WHIP, 685ERA+ RP-Chris Schroder: 5IP, 10.8H/9, 5.4K/9, 0.5K:BB, 10.8BB/9, 3.6HR/9, 2.400WHIP, 81ERA+ RP-Russ Springer: 50.3IP, 7.0H/9, 8.1K/9, 2.5K:BB, 3.2BB/9, 0.7HR/9, 1.132WHIP, 183ERA+ LP-Jerry Blevins: 37.7IP, 7.6H/9, 8.4K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.1BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 1.195WHIP, 130ERA+ RP-Mike Wuertz: 44.7IP, 8.9H/9, 6.0K/9, 1.5K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.433WHIP, 123ERA+ A really interesting group in my opinion. Devine is the real closer on this team with Casilla being a decent option. I like Ziegler but more of a setup man. That 384ERA+ looks a little out of place with the peripherals that go along with it. Ziegler induced a crazy amount of ground balls which works in Oakland because of the defense. Casilla should be posting better numbers too. For whatever reason he can't put dominant halves together for a full season of nastiness. I think Schroder could be a steal. He showed really good stuff in Washington before injuries hit. Springer is an interesting sign. His stuff is all the way solid, but when you look at the stats underneath you see that his last two seasons in St. Louis have been helped by a very low HR/FB rate. Those numbers tend to regress, but give credit to Billy Beane and Russ Spring for seeing an opportunity and taking it. Playing in Oakland will obviously help the HR/FB ratio for Springer even if it does regress. Both guys recognize this and it makes sense for Oakland to get a veteran reliever with good stuff on the cheap and it also works for Springer because it keeps his stock rising. Wuertz is also an interesting guy. His peripherals took a beating last season but were totally out of line with the rest of his career numbers so that should regress. It helps again playing in a big park with a stout defense, but Wuertz is definitely one of those relievers that had a tough year but is better than the numbers might indicate. It's odd in a way, but the bullpen works. It'll have to with the rotation the way it is. I think Devine & Casilla have closer's stuff. Devine is closer than Casilla but it's really a moot point as long as their is one in place. I really like the upside of Schroder, Springer and Wuertz. Ziegler is solid leaving really only Blevins as a dynamite LOOGY. There really isn't a wasted man or a below average pitcher for any spot in this bullpen which will come in super handy! OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 ATHLETICS I'm not sure there is a team with more risk/reward than Oakland. The AL West is a bit weakened at the moment and it would seem that Oakland could be ready to pounce, but I think they just aren't there yet. I'm going to predict them at 3rd place in the AL West for 2009. So the next question is why to preview them? First they are interesting, but let's go through the pieces and try to figure it out. Offensively the A's should be much improved. You don't add guys like Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi and remain static. Sure they were last in the AL in RS/G last season, but how can they be this season? They also get healthy with Eric Chavez & Mark Ellis. That's a big plus right there although with Chavez you really don't know I guess. I think Travis Buck rebounds and Jack Cust is already a helluva hitter at DH. If one guy falls you have Daric Barton down in Sacramento ready to get back up to Oakland. But the questions on offense remain. Will Holliday actually stay in Oakland the whole year or will be used as a chip to build for the future? Giambi was healthy last season, but he'll be 38-years old and he's been injured in 2 of the last 5 seasons. Can Chavez hold up? How much of a hole is Bobby Crosby & Ryan Sweeney in the lineup? The rotation might be even more of a mess. I like Duchscherer but nobody can deny he got crazy lucky with his BABIP. I think Eveland can improve and Duchscherer could be a serviceable #2/#3 but an ACE? It's just not likely. As much as I like Braden, Gallagher & Gonzalez, those are all unproven young arms with massive control problems! Throw in Eveland and his 4.1BB/9 and you have 80% of the rotation who simply can't control their pitches! You cannot get by on that even with a weak AL West. The West is really tough to predict. My projections have Oakland in 3rd with Texas in 4th but even that is hard to believe. Texas has as much upside offensively as any team in the major leagues, but their pitching is horrendous and their park isn't doing them any favors. The Mariners should be a lot better than they were in 2008. Losing 101-games is nuts. With a rotation of Hernandez/Bedard/Washburn/Silva/Rowland-Smith, the Mariners should be able to win more games than 61! That leaves Oakland. I think they are simply a year away. They need the consolidation of their rotation and it would help of Sweeney, Suzuki and Buck got better too. It would help out tremendously if Daric Barton got back on track. The A's & Billy Beane have a lot of pieces in place, but it probably won't mesh perfectly in 2009. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3