[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 A's Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Oakland A's Preview
Billy Beane loves his reputation as a maverick general manager. He always seems
to be a year or two ahead of conventional methodology. “Billy’s very good at
knowing when to buy and when to sell,” one major league executive said over
the winter. “And he’s never afraid.” But will Beane’s latest round of
wheeling and dealing once again make Oakland a playoff contender? There are
cynics who believe Beane may have gone too far, trading starting pitchers Dan
Haren, Joe Blanton and Rich Harden long before they were eligible for free
agency. Outfielders Mark Kotsay and Nick Swisher (who had been signed to a
five-year contract a year earlier) were also traded last offseason. It was all
part of the team’s latest round of cost-cutting. And it may take a couple of
seasons to discover whether Beane’s moves were beneficial or detrimental.
Until then, it appears the A’s will be mired in the second division of the
American League West, which means watching the Los Angeles Angels win another
title.
Rotation
With the aforementioned stalwart pitchers scattered across the majors, the A’s
enter 2009 with only one true veteran, two-time All-Star Justin Duchscherer. He
led A’s starters with 10 wins and a 2.54 ERA but started only 22 games due to
a hip injury. Duchscherer has been on the DL four times in the past three
seasons and must remain healthy. Sean Gallagher (acquired in the Harden trade
with the Cubs) and Dana Eveland (Haren deal) appear locks for the rotation.
Lefties Gio Gonzalez (Swisher trade) and Dallas Braden could grab the final two
spots. But for how long? The A’s have promising prospects in their farm
system, including Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson.
Bullpen
The good news: The A’s relievers ranked second in the AL and fourth in the
majors with a 3.50 ERA. The bad: They converted only 33 of their 52 save
opportunities (63.5 percent). Huston Street, who blew seven saves in his worst
season in the majors, is now in Colorado, leaving 2008 phenom Brad Ziegler as
the team’s closer. As a rookie last year, Ziegler went 3–0 with a 1.06 ERA in
47 games. He began with a 39-inning scoreless streak, which set the modern
major league record for the start of a career. He replaced Street as the closer
on Aug. 8 and recorded 11 saves, the third-most in the AL in the final seven
weeks of the season. Setting up Ziegler will be Joey Devine, who was acquired
from Atlanta in the Kotsay deal. Devine also had a terrific rookie season,
going 6–1 with a 0.59 ERA in 42 games, the lowest in the majors among pitchers
with 25 or more innings since the earned run became an official stat in the AL
in 1913. Michael Wuertz, acquired from the Cubs, and free agent Russ Springer
will provide veteran presence from the right side. Santiago Casilla was headed
for a career year posting a 0.93 ERA in his first 21 games before going on the
disabled list with a right elbow injury. After returning, Casilla compiled a
5.81 ERA in his final 30 appearances.
Middle infield
The A’s apparently will head into the season with a double-play combination of
shortstop Bobby Crosby and second baseman Mark Ellis. If the team had its
druthers, Rafael Furcal would have been the shortstop, but he spurned their
multiyear offer. Crosby was even put on waivers in December, but he passed
through unclaimed. The A’s have grown weary of waiting for him to regain his
2004 form, when he hit 22 homers and drove in 64 runs to earn Rookie of the
Year honors. The A’s do not have similar qualms about Crosby’s partner,
though Ellis’ numbers dropped across the board from his solid 2007 season.
Last year, Ellis hit .233 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs. Still, he’s one of the
best defensive second basemen in the league, and the A’s re-signed him to a
two-year contract in the offseason.
Corners
Eric Chavez’s production has dropped in recent seasons, though injuries have
played a huge role in his decline. Chavez played in only 23 games last season
and 90 the year before. In that span he’s had four surgeries in less than a
year, two on his right shoulder, one on his left shoulder and one on his back.
Chavez will need to remain healthy this season for the A’s to become playoff
contenders again. If he’s hurt, they’ll have to resort to Jack Hannahan, who
hit just .218 in 143 games last season. On the positive side, Hannahan’s .969
fielding percentage ranked second among AL third basemen. The A’s will enter
the season with Daric Barton as their first baseman, but if he’s anything like
the player who hit .226 with nine homers and 47 RBIs last year, the team will
make a change. The A’s certainly could play Jason Giambi there and return Jack
Cust to DH. Giambi played 113 games at first for the Yankees last year.
Outfield
The A’s have been sellers, not buyers, in the past couple of seasons, so it
came as somewhat of a shock when they acquired Matt Holliday from Colorado.
Holliday is the closest thing the A’s have to a must-see player, but will he
remain with the team beyond July? Not likely, since he’ll be among the most
sought-after free agents after the season. Enjoy him while you can, A’s fans.
Ryan Sweeney was a pleasant surprise for the A’s. One of three players
acquired from the White Sox in the Swisher deal, he established himself as one
of the A’s most promising position players, leading the team in batting for
most of the season and playing outstanding defense. With the A’s signing
Giambi, Cust will move from DH to the outfield. It’s likely Cust will play
right field, and could be spelled by Travis Buck, who has been on the Opening
Day roster the past two seasons but appeared in just 38 games over that span. He
’s had three stints on the disabled list, including last year when he suffered
from shin splints.
Catching
Kurt Suzuki became a dependable catcher in his first full season with the A’s.
He led the AL in games behind the plate (141) and was the team leader with a
.279 batting average. Suzuki also had a penchant for big hits, smacking a
walk-off homer in a pinch hit spot Aug. 15 against Chicago and delivering a
game-ending pinch hit double two weeks later against Minnesota. Though Suzuki
is gaining trust among A’s pitchers with his game calling, the knock on him is
his arm accuracy. He threw out only 16-of-71 base stealers last season.
DH/Bench
Giambi returns to Oakland after seven controversial seasons in New York. He can
fill in at first, but his primary role is to serve as the DH and add some pop
to the lineup. He no longer hits for average but can still knock the ball out
of the park; he’s had 32-plus homers in his last three seasons with at least
400 at-bats. The A’s figure to enter the season very young on the bench. Rajai
Davis, Chris Denorfia, Rob Bowen and Cliff Pennington are among the key
fixtures. Davis stole 25 bases with the A’s in only 207 plate appearances.
Management
The A’s dumped manager Ken Macha after he led the team to the ALCS in 2006
because players complained he wasn’t a good communicator. His successor, Bob
Geren, is plenty talkative, but only 151–172 in two seasons. The rebuilding
continues, but with the A’s plummeting in the standings and attendance
dropping, they will need to improve if Beane wants to retain his status as a
top GM.
Final analysis
The A’s are stockpiling young talent, but in the meantime they appear a year
or two away from serious contention. Despite a philosophical change in training
methods, the A’s were ravaged by injuries last season and must remain healthy
this year.
Beyond the Boxscore
Starter struggles Oakland’s starting pitchers went 48–66 with a 4.29 ERA. It
was the fewest wins and most losses by the staff since the 1997 group went 29–
73. On a positive note, the starters allowed only 91 home runs, second-fewest
in the American League.
Brown for Bradley The A’s acquired right-handed pitcher Andrew Brown from San
Diego as part of a deal for volatile outfielder Milton Bradley. It was the
second time Brown had been involved in a Bradley deal. He was the player to be
named in 2004, going from the Dodgers to Cleveland, with Bradley shipped in the
opposite direction.
What’s his name? Reliever Santiago Casilla has appeared in 106 games for the A
’s since 2005, but in the first three he was known as Jairo Garcia. Casilla
admitted before the 2006 season that he used fake documents from his native
Dominican Republic.
Making his Mark Second baseman Mark Ellis was probably the least known part of
a three-team, seven-player deal on Jan. 8, 2001, that sent him and Johnny Damon
from Kansas City to the A’s. Also involved in the deal were Roberto Hernandez,
Cory Lidle, Ben Grieve, Angel Berroa and A.J. Hinch. The little-known Ellis has
hit 68 homers, second in A’s history for a second baseman behind Dick Green’s
76.
Flying high Reliever Brad Ziegler is a Blue Angels buff. He fulfilled a dream
when he took a ride in early January with the U.S. Navy’s elite flight
demonstration squadron near San Diego. He was coming off a season in which he
set the modern record with 39 scoreless innings to begin his career.
Pickoffs A’s pitchers picked off 36 runners last season, the third-highest
total since they started tracking the stat in 1987. Only the ’92 Braves (39)
and ’97 Yankees registered more. The A’s pickoff total will likely decline
this year with Greg Smith (16 total) moving to Colorado as part of the Matt
Holliday deal.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — While Mark Ellis remains a fixture at second base for
the A’s, the team looked to the future by taking second baseman Jemile Weeks
with the 12th overall pick of the 2008 draft. Weeks is the younger brother of
Milwaukee Brewer Rickie Weeks. Jemile is smaller than Rickie and relies more on
speed. In addition to his .363 average, .452 on-base percentage, 13 homers and
62 RBIs at the University of Miami, Weeks had 16 doubles, five triples and 22
steals in 23 attempts. “We certainly talked about the fact he can run and
steal bases. It would be a nice dynamic,” says A’s director of scouting Eric
Kubota.
2007 Top Pick — James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
Has quickly risen, going 9–6 with 3.51 ERA at Double-A Midland last season.
2006 Top Pick — Trevor Cahill, RHP, Vista (Calif.) High School
The organization’s Pitcher of the Year the past two seasons was a second-round
pick. Combined to go 11–5 with a 2.61 ERA in stints in A and AA ball.
2005 Top Pick — Cliff Pennington, INF, Mary Carroll (Texas) High School
After a slow start, he hit .297 at Triple-A Sacramento before he was promoted
to Oakland.
2004 Top Pick — Landon Powell, C, Appex (N.C.) High School
Played a full season at Triple-A Sacramento, hitting .230 with 15 homers, after
his development was stunted by a torn ACL that forced him to miss ’05 season.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
LHP Brett Anderson (21)
Acquired from Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, Anderson made significant
contributions for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics.
INF Chris Carter (22)
Also taken in the Haren deal, Carter had a monster season at Stockton, leading
the California League with 39 HRs and 104 RBIs.
RHP Michael Inoa (17)
Several scouts called Inoa one of the best 16-year-old pitchers they’ve ever
seen, with his fastball in the 94 mph range.
LHP Gio Gonzalez (23)
Had control problems in his brief stint with the A’s last year and must
correct those problems if he wants to win a rotation spot.
RHP Fautino De Los Santos (23)
Has a fastball in the 96-97 mph range, with a sharp slider; missed most of 2008
with Tommy John surgery.
Statistician
21 >> Rookies who played for the A’s last season, breaking their previous
record of 18 set in 1983.
25 >> Number of times the A’s used the disabled list last season, setting a
team record.
51 >> Players used by the A’s in 2008, three short of the team record of 54
set in 2007.
.279 >> Kurt Suzuki’s team-leading batting average, the lowest for an A’s
player since Jeff Burroughs hit .277 to lead the A’s in 1982.
646 >> Runs scored by the A’s, the fewest in the AL and the team’s fewest
since the miserable ’79 season.
.993 >> Second baseman Mark Ellis’ fielding percentage, edging Boston’s
Dustin Pedroia for top mark in the majors.
88 >> Stolen bases by Oakland in 2008, the most by the A’s since the 1998
team swiped 131.
Difference Maker
The A’s don’t make a habit of giving their star players big-money contracts,
but they did in the case of Eric Chavez, signing him to a six-year, $66 million
deal before the 2004 season. The move simply hasn’t worked. Chavez’s numbers
and playing time have dropped since the ’05 season. Chavez played in only 23
games last year after season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his
right shoulder. A healthy Chavez could give the A’s some much-needed pop in
the middle of the lineup.
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