[農場] fangraphs Top 15 Prospects
1. Michael Choice, OF
BORN: Nov. 10, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (10th overall), U of Texas-Arlington
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd
SCOUTING REPORT: Choices’ No. 1 tool is his power, which could some day rate
as a 70 on the scouting scale. His pull-conscious approach and big swing
could lead to a lot of strikeouts. He has decent speed, which plays well in
the outfield. He’s seen time mostly in center field during his pro career to
this point but will likely move to right field where his arm will play well.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Choice, who recently turned 22, enjoyed the offensive
environment in the California League and slugged 30 home runs in 467 at-bats.
His ISO rate sat at .257 after Choice also flashing above-average power in
his small sample size debut in 2010 (.343 ISO). He hit .285 in ’11 but had a
healthy BABIP and a 25% strikeout rate in the upper levels of the minors will
likely result in lower averages. Even if he doesn’t hit for average Choice
has added value because he gets on base a lot (11.3 BB%).
YEAR AHEAD: The slugger will move up to double-A in 2012 and look to trim his
strikeout rate while also keeping up the power output. Choice could reach the
Majors in the second half of the season – especially after such a strong
Arizona Fall League (six homers in 17 games, .318 average).
CAREER OUTLOOK: Choice has the potential to develop into a
middle-of-the-order hitter – something the Major League club could really
use. He should also have some defensive value.
2. Grant Green, OF/SS
BORN: Sept. 27, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (13th overall), USC
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st
SCOUTING REPORT: Drafted in the first round as a shortstop, continued issues
with high error totals led the organization to move Green to the outfield for
the final 40 games of 2011. He showed enough potential to be considered the
club’s center-fielder of the future. Green doesn’t hit for home-run power
and doesn’t steal bases so much of his value is tied up in his ability to
hit for a high average. He’s done just that so far, but he’s also produced
above-average BABIPs.
YEAR IN REVIEW: At the plate, Green’s power output dropped (.203 to .117
ISO) as expected with the move from the potent A-ball league that he played
in during the 2010 season. He narrowly missed hitting .300 for the first time
in his career. Green could struggle a bit in the Majors if he doesn’t trim
his strikeout rate; it’s a little high for someone with limited power.
YEAR AHEAD: Green will move up to triple-A in 2012 and look to polish his
defensive abilities in center field. He’s in line to join Choice in the A’s
new-look outfield in 2013, if not sooner. It would be nice to see him walk a
little more while also trimming the Ks.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former infielder lost a little value with a move to the
outfield but he still has the potential to develop into an above-average
regular if he keeps hitting for average and shows consistent gap power.
3. Chris Carter, 1B/DH
BORN: Dec. 18, 1986
EXPERIENCE: 7 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2005 15th round, Las Vegas HS (Chicago AL)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd
SCOUTING REPORT: It was a disappointing season for Carter who suffered a
badly sprained thumb in April and lost two months due to the injury. He’s a
one-trick slugger whose main position is first base, but he’s also seen a
little time in left field. Carter is nothing special defensively at any
position but he’ll continue to get opportunities at the MLB level because of
his raw power.
YEAR IN REVIEW: After slugging an eye-popping 124 home runs between 2007-10,
Carter hit just 18 in 2011 – but still managed to post an ISO rate of .257
in 296 at-bats. His strikeout rate continued to be high at 24.7%. In 44 MLB
at-bats, though, he struck out at a rate of almost 44% and batted just .136.
YEAR AHEAD: Carter has struggled in two brief MLB trials over the past couple
of seasons. The club has Daric Barton and also brought in young slugger
Brandon Allen via a trade with Arizona. It will likely come down to Allen or
Carter for the club’s everyday designated hitter role. Carter, the younger
of the two players, could head back to triple-A.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Carter will probably never cut his strikeout rate a drastic
amount and, as a result, he’ll never provide much in the batting average
department. He also won’t have much defensive value but he can put a charge
in the ball and isn’t afraid to take a walk.
4. Sonny Gray, RHP
BORN: Dec. 7, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (18th overall), Vanderbilt University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Gray is a smallish pitcher with an excellent repertoire that
includes a 90-95 mph fastball, a good curveball, and a developing changeup.
The 2011 first rounder could be one of the first players to reach the Majors.
Gray’s tendency to pitch up in the zone will be less of an issue pitching in
Oakland’s spacious park. He also did a nice job – in a small-sample size –
of keeping the balls in play on the ground during his pro debut.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Gray received a brief taste of rookie ball before moving up
to double-A where he made five starts and performed quite well. In the
limited opportunity, he posted a 2.30 FIP and a walk rate of just 2.70 BB/9.
YEAR AHEAD: Gray will likely open the 2012 season back in double-A but he
could move quickly – and see the Majors by mid season. He needs to focus on
improving the consistency of his delivery, which would in turn improve his
command.
CAREER OUTLOOK: As a small right-hander with a big fastball and a solid
second pitch it’s easy to see him having a great career in the Majors as a
high-leverage reliever. Oakland, though, expects his changeup to develop well
enough for him to stick as a No. 2 or 3 starter.
5. Yordy Cabrera, SS
BORN: Sept. 3, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 2nd round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 7th
SCOUTING REPORT: Cabrera was a potential first round pick entering the 2010
draft but slide until the second round; it took more than $1 million for the
organization to sway him from attending college. The infielder comes from a
baseball family so he’s been around the sport a long time. He struggled in
his first full season and is still refining his pitch recognition and
approach. If everything clicks, he has the potential to develop 60 power.
Defensively, he has a 70 arm but his range is modest and could decline
further as he ages – forcing him to the hot corner.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Cabrera hit just .231 in 2011 at low-A ball and is currently
a mistake hitter that strikes out a lot (27.4%) due to poor pitch
recognition. He showed a willingness to take a walk and has raw power. A
right-handed hitter, he batted just .156 and struck out a third of the time
against southpaws.
YEAR AHEAD: Cabrera may benefit from a brief return engagement to low-A ball
but the organization will probably push him to high-A, assuming he has a
decent spring. He’s one of the club’s most promising offensive prospects
but he’s still very raw.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The infielder has the potential to develop into an
above-average regular if he can stick at shortstop but he might be just a
decent regular at third base. Time will tell.
6. Aaron Shipman, OF
BORN: Jan. 27, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, Georgia HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Signed away from college for half a million dollars and a
third-round selection in the 2010 draft, Shipman made some impressive strides
in ’11 and is a breakout candidate for the coming season. He offers
above-average defense with good range and a solid arm – and also improved
his offensive package. Shipman has above-average speed and also showcased a
good eye at the plate in his first full year in pro ball.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Shipman started the year in extended spring training before
moving to short-season ball in June. He walked more (17.0 BB%) than he struck
out (15.8 K%), which is an exciting trait for speedy player (17 steals) to
have. The outfielder hit .254 and didn’t show much power with an ISO rate of
just .050 but he has lots of time to learn to drive the ball into the gaps.
His numbers would look much better if he had not gotten off to a slow start
at the beginning of the season (4-for-34, .118).
YEAR AHEAD: The Georgia native is ready to move into full-season ball in
2012. He needs to learn to pick “his pitch” and be a little more aggressive
with balls in the strike zone. The new approach could also help him improve
his gap power. He needs to improve against southpaws after hitting just .222
against them and failing to record an extra-base hit.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Shipman has a chance to develop into a multi-tooled center
fielder with an average bat, above-average base running abilities and plus
defense. With Grant Green ahead of him, he has plenty of time to develop.
7. Michael Taylor, OF
BORN: Dec. 19, 1985
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 5th round, Stanford U (Philadelphia)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 8th
SCOUTING REPORT: Perhaps similar to current Phillie and fellow Stanford alum
John Mayberry, Taylor is a late-blooming hitter who has struggled to prove
that he’s an everyday player… rather than a solid bench or platoon bat.
When he’s on, Taylor hits for average, power and shows good patience at the
plate. He provides decent range and an above-average arm in right field.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Although he boasts above-average raw power, Taylor hasn’t
shown above-average, in-game pop since 2009. He hit just six home runs in his
first (full) go-around in triple-A in 2010 and then added 16 dingers in 2011
(.183 ISO) at the same level. Taylor received just 30 at-bats at the MLB
level and posted a .285 wOBA.
YEAR AHEAD: With Grant Green and Michael Choice not far away it would be in
Taylor’s best interests to finally realize his potential in 2012 – his
opportunities in Oakland have almost run out. There are plenty of
opportunities in the A’s outfield for the coming season – depending on how
the off-season plays out.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Already 26, Taylor needs to secure a big league role before
securing the label of quad-A slugger. Although he hasn’t dominated triple-A,
Taylor probably doesn’t need any more seasoning. He’d be better off
learning at the MLB level and there are currently openings on the 25-man
roster in the outfield.
8. Max Stassi, C
BORN: March 15, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 4th round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th
SCOUTING REPORT: Hindered by a shoulder injury since his amateur days, Stassi
finally gave in and had surgery. It wiped out much of his season but the
organization is hoping a healthy shoulder leads to better offensive numbers
from the player that was, at one point, a fringe first round draft prospect.
He has good power potential but is currently a guess hitter that racks up the
Ks. Defensively, he shows good leadership and receiving skills. Looking for
his throwing to improve.
YEAR IN REVIEW: When healthy in 2011, he showed a willingness to take a walk
(11.5 BB%) and trimmed his strikeout rate by a half over 2010 (15.8 vs 30.3
K%) – albeit in only 121 at-bats. Even so, he’s taken a few steps in the
right direction and didn’t embarrass himself in high-A ball.
YEAR AHEAD: Still just 20, Stassi will head back to high-A ball in 2012 and
could put up big numbers if the shoulder is sound. He’ll look to keep the
strikeouts in check and hopefully push his batting average up to at least
.250.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Stassi has the potential to develop into an average defensive
catcher and a slightly-above-average hitter if his power shows up and he can
keep the strikeouts in check. He’s still two to three years away from the
Majors so Kurt Suzuki will have to keep the position warm for a little while
longer.
9. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF
BORN: Nov. 20, 1993
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: The young De La Cruz is still quite raw but he has an
impressive mix of center field skills (including a strong arm), plus running
speed, and above-average bat speed that should eventually lead to 20+ home
run power. On the downside, and like a lot of young Latin American hitters,
De La Cruz is overly aggressive at the plate – although it didn’t hurt him
in 2011.
YEAR IN REVIEW: The prospect just recently turned 18 so the success he had in
rookie ball in 2011 was very impressive. He hit .318 and walked more than he
struck out (15.7 BB% vs 11.5 K%). De La Cruz stole 10 bases in 15 tries and
showed some growing power potential with an ISO rate of .135. A left-handed
hitter, he batted .349 against southpaws.
YEAR AHEAD: De La Cruz exceeded expectations in 2011 and has an outside shot
of opening the year in low-A ball but, in reality, he’ll probably head to
short-season ball in June after extended spring training. He still has work
to do on his pitch selection but you cannot argue with his early results. It’
s about adding polish and consistency at this point.
CAREER OUTLOOK: The teenager had a great start to his career and he has a
huge ceiling. He could develop into a 20-20 hitter with plus defense in
center field. Oakland just needs to be patient.
10. Stephen Parker, 3B
BORN: Sept. 3, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 5th round, Brigham Young University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Third base is a gaping hole in Oakland right now and the
organization has a number of potential long-term solutions in the minors.
Parker is the most MLB-ready but he doesn’t have the highest ceiling, mainly
because he lacks prototypical power. He should hit for a solid average and
does a nice job of getting on base. His defense is nothing special and he can
play both third and first base.
YEAR IN REVIEW: Parker spent the majority of the 2011 season in double-A and
posted solid numbers, although his power output was disappointing (.127 ISO).
Even so, he has the ability to hit for average and an impressive on-base
percentage (12.0 BB% in ’11).
YEAR AHEAD: The third baseman received a five-game trial in triple-A in 2011
and will return there in 2012. He should be ready for the Majors by
mid-season but it remains to be seen if Oakland will have room for him; with
that said, Scott Sizemore, Adam Rosales, and Eric Sogard should not be
roadblocks for anyone.
CAREER OUTLOOK: Parker would be a Joe Randa type third baseman if he does
receive regular playing time. More likely than not, though, he’ll end up as
an offensive-minded corner infield utility player and pinch hitter for a
National League club.
The Next Five
11. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B: Vollmuth is a streaky hitter that has the potential to
put everything together and develop into a quality hitter with 20+ home run
power. Defensively, he played mostly shortstop in college before moving to
third base in his last season. A lack of range could force him to first base
or right field, where his good arm would be of value.
12. Renato Nunez, 3B: Nunez was a big-ticket signee from 2010 that received
more than $2 million. He came over to the USA as a 17 year old and performed
admirably with a .268 average and .139 ISO rate in 194 at-bats. His walk rate
was low, though, at 2.9 BB%. Scouts feel he will eventually hit for both
power and average. Defensively, he may not stick at the hot corner, but the
club has a lot of depth there right now.
13. Chih Fang Pan, 2B/SS: Pan, a Taiwan native, had a solid season in
short-season ball in 2011. He hit .343 with a decent walk rate (7.4 BB%) but
he didn’t produce much power (0.49 ISO) and he lost some defensive value by
moving from shortstop to second base. The organization has been patient with
him – he’s already 21 and has spent the last two seasons in extended spring
training. Low-A ball will be a big test for him in 2012.
14. Wilfredo Solano, SS: Solano was a key international signing for the
organization in 2009 but he’s developed slowly and spent the past two
seasons in rookie ball. He improved in 2011 and raised his average from .179
to .244. He also showed more pop in his bat because he’s learning to drive
the ball. Solano still has a long way to go but the 19 year old bears
watching.
15. Ian Krol, LHP: It was a bad year for Krol who missed time with an elbow
injury and then got suspended by the club for an offensive Tweet. The
southpaw was also suspended for his senior year of high school so this could
suggest he has some growing up to do. It’s too bad as Krol is one of the
organization’s best pitching prospects and has a No. 3 starter’s ceiling.
SLEEPER ALERT: Gregory Paulino, RHP: After beginning the year in the
Dominican Summer League in 2011, Paulino was abruptly brought over to North
America to make eight appearances (five starts) in rookie ball. He allowed
just 23 hits in 28.0 innings and showed a very promising fastball. He also
does a nice job of keeping batted balls on the ground.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-oakland-athletics/
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