[外電] Sergio's 3 Point Shot and Defense

看板BLAZERS (波特蘭拓荒者)作者Aldridge (目標：季後賽我來啦)時間17年前 (2008/12/11 17:54)推噓1(1推 0噓 1→)

留言2則, 1人參與討論串1/1

http://www.blazersedge.com/fanposts/full/2 Its going to be impossible for me not to seem biased for Sergio in this post, so I'll just go ahead and own it. I've been a huge Sergio fan ever since he became a Blazer. Earlier in fact. I've been paying attention to foreign prospects for a while (I'm kind of a draft geek), and was enamored enough with Sergio, that I told a friend he was the guy we needed to select when we added that pick from PHX. To my utter astonishment, KP made my dream a reality. Ever since then, Sergio has been my favorite player on the team. However, I'm a realist, well, a pessimist really. Last year after watching his play (mostly cringe inducing), I became aware of the potential parting of ways between Sergio and the Blazers. Even though I didn't like Bayless' game more than Sergio's, I had to admit, like any objective person, that he was not only the better fit with Roy, but probably the more likely long term answer for this team. Although you still have to back your guy (thanks timbo, for helping me find my passion again), I stated the obvious reasons you can't just let a guy like Sergio go and rot away on the bench (age, elite and unusual talents etc). Then I went to that preseason game against Sacremento, and I saw the chemistry he and Rudy had on the court. It was as immediate and obvious as any combo you'll ever see play together. I fell back in love with all the things I had always loved about his game. During this early run, not only has he exhibited that rookie season flair and insanely high assist ratio we all grew to love two years ago, but you have begun to see his development as an overall basket- ball player. Most importantly to his potential future here in Portland were his improvements in two areas, his defense and his three point shooting. I know, I know, his three point percentage is average (its actually slightly above average 37%). But it actually isn't. His true three point percentage is actually above 40%. When I took a look at the box score today, and saw Sergio Rodriguez 3/9, and 2/4 from three, I thought, that isn't the game I just saw. Those shots don't represent even his shooting impact on the game. The part I won't significantly get into here is the fact that on two of his missed shots, that he blew past the player defending him, and caused a big to challenge his shot (allowing Joel and LaMarcus to dunk off his missed layups). The part I want to get into is part of the un-stats. Specifically the half court heaves that show up on your box score, but represent zero of your ability to reason- ably and effectively hit your three point shot in a game. As it stands now, Sergio Rodriguez is 14 for 38 on the year from three (37%). 5 of those shots, or 13% of his three point shots for the year have been of the half court heave variety. 13%, I've concluded is among the highest percentages of half court heaves to three point shots in the NBA. Steve Blake by comparison, has shot 3 of them on the year (3% of his threes) . His real, honest to goodness 3 point percentage is 45/103 (106 w/ half court heaves) or 43.7%. By comparison, right now Sergio sits at 14/33 (38 w/ half court heaves) or 42.4%. When someone in the game threads throws up their arms (or like computer anology), feel free to let them know, when Sergio Rodriguez has an open three point shot, not only is it not the end of the world, it actually results in a T(otal)S(hot)% of 64%. I've compiled a list of guards that have a TS% of over 64%... Steve Nash. The point being, when you're criticizing Sergio's game this year, be fair about it. Things you're allowed to complain about on the offensive end include; Sergio's inability to finish at the rack and his inability to make supposedly easy mid range buckets... end of list The more important improvement in Sergio's game has been on the defensive end. Because stats on this end are harder to quantify, most of you will just have to rely on what you've seen on the court. Sergio gets into his player almost immediately upon that player passing the half court line (if not sooner), and he isn't playing off of them, but he's playing really tight defense. This eliminates a lot of his natural deficiencies as an athlete. While athletic, Sergio has a tendency to get his feet crossed when defending quicker PG's. When he plays up tight on the guys, he essentially forces them to choose their path, eliminating the potential cross overs, and Ole's, that people around here love to throw at him. Due to his toughness on the defensive end, point guards really have to work to get anything at all against him. Of the stats that are quantifiable on defense, Sergio is fairing very well. In 15 minutes per game, he's averaging 0.8 steals per game, which ends up at 2.4 steals per 48, which of the qualifying PG's in the league ranks him at #12 in that category, and if you adjust for pace, he's actually closer to 2.6 steals per 48, which would put him at #8 for qualiying PG's. The better and more important numbers I have to go to 82games.com for. http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR2.HTM - If you go down to production by position, you'll notice that the player that Sergio defends this year averages 6 assists and over 3 turnovers per 48 minutes. Thats incredibly low production for any PG. The player he's defending this year is also shooting an abysmal 36% eFG from the floor. Of the 66 PG's in the league that qualify not a single one of them shoots less than that from the floor. Basically, once again trying to endorse fairness on BE, if we're going to fairly assess his weakness on the defensive end, we can't discuss the Ole' part of his game anymore. The worst you could say about him, based strictly on his play from this season, is that he occasionally suffers from mental lapses. It appears that physically, he will eventually be able to control, or at least mitigate to some degree opposing PG's ability to gain easy access to the painted area. He has gotten to the point, where most possessions he's involved in usually end with the PG having to give the ball up to a less adept ball handler as soon as they cross the half court line. Rarely this year have we seen someone dominate Sergio in one on one situations for even a couple possessions in a row. I guess what I'd like to get from this, is some fair and honest assessment on what you think Sergio's future could be here, or with another team. And if you'd prefer the future of this team to involve him or not. Not necessarily whether you care for his game, but in an ideal world, in 3-4 years can you see, or do you want to see him on the team. If so, how? Starting? Backing up? 10 minutes per game? 20 minutes per game? etc... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 221.169.172.177