[分享] 大谷跟法官挑戰打擊三冠王的可能性
今天官網在賽前算的
來源:https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-aaron-judge-triple-crown-chances
法官
對手只看BWJ,假設BWJ接下來全勤3場12打數,那整季會有641打數
法官應該會休一場(確實休了),假設剩下2場7打數(全季561)
法官要拿三冠王的狀況有:
如果法官5安打 BWJ最多只能2安
如果法官4安打 BWJ最多只能1安
如果法官3安打 BWJ只能0安打
算法原文
‧ If Judge goes 5-for-7 (finishing at .3298) … he would win if Witt went no be
tter than 2-for-12 (finishing at .3292).
‧ If Judge goes 4-for-7 (finishing at .3280) … he would win if Witt went no be
tter than 1-for-12 (finishing at .3276).
‧ If Judge goes 3-for-7 (finishing at .3262) … he would win if Witt went 0-for
-12 (finishing at .3261).
---
大谷
1.由於教士已晉級季後賽,可能會讓Arraez休一場,剩下2場假設9打數(全季638數)
2.由於勇士要拼外卡,剩下五場Ozuna應該都會上,假設剩18打數(全季638打數)
3.道奇可能讓大谷休一場,假設剩2場9打數(不過蘿蔔已經確定會讓大谷三場全勤了)
那麼大谷三冠王的狀況是
如果大谷9打數6安打,那Arraez 9打數最多只能2安打、Ozuna只能18打數6安打
如果大谷9打數5安打,那Arraez9打數最多只能1安打、Ozuna只能18打數5安打
如果大谷9打數4安打,那Arraez只能9打數0安打、Ozuna只能18打數4安打
原文
‧ If Ohtani goes 6-for-9 (finishing at .3106) … he would win if Arraez goes no
better than 2-for-9 (finishing at .3103) AND Ozuna goes no better than 6-for-18
(finishing at .3102).
‧ If Ohtani goes 5-for-9 (finishing at .3090) … he would win if Arraez goes no
better than 1-for-9 (finishing at .3088) AND Ozuna goes no better than 5-for-18
(finishing at .3086).
‧ If Ohtani goes 4-for-9 (finishing at .3074) … he would win if Arraez goes 0-
for-9 (.3072) AND Ozuna goes no better than 4-for-18 (.3069).
今天的比賽大谷5支4、Arraez是5支3、Ozuna是3支0、BWJ是3支1
雖然這只是粗淺的計算,不過看起來都沒什麼機會了?
--
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推
09/28 13:00,
2小時前
, 1F
09/28 13:00, 1F
→
09/28 13:01,
2小時前
, 2F
09/28 13:01, 2F
推
09/28 13:01,
2小時前
, 3F
09/28 13:01, 3F
※ 編輯: polanco (223.139.221.233 臺灣), 09/28/2024 13:02:26
推
09/28 13:02,
2小時前
, 4F
09/28 13:02, 4F
→
09/28 13:02,
2小時前
, 5F
09/28 13:02, 5F
→
09/28 13:02,
2小時前
, 6F
09/28 13:02, 6F
推
09/28 13:04,
2小時前
, 7F
09/28 13:04, 7F
推
09/28 13:05,
2小時前
, 8F
09/28 13:05, 8F
※ 編輯: polanco (223.139.221.233 臺灣), 09/28/2024 13:05:28
→
09/28 13:05,
2小時前
, 9F
09/28 13:05, 9F
推
09/28 13:06,
2小時前
, 10F
09/28 13:06, 10F
推
09/28 13:07,
2小時前
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09/28 13:07, 11F
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09/28 13:07,
2小時前
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09/28 13:07, 12F
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09/28 13:07,
2小時前
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09/28 13:07, 13F
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09/28 13:08,
2小時前
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09/28 13:08, 14F
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09/28 13:08,
2小時前
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09/28 13:08, 15F
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09/28 13:08,
2小時前
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09/28 13:08, 16F
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09/28 13:08,
2小時前
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09/28 13:08, 17F
→
09/28 13:09,
2小時前
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09/28 13:09, 18F
推
09/28 13:10,
2小時前
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09/28 13:10, 19F
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09/28 13:10,
2小時前
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09/28 13:10, 20F
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09/28 13:11,
2小時前
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09/28 13:11, 21F
推
09/28 13:12,
2小時前
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09/28 13:12, 22F
→
09/28 13:12,
2小時前
, 23F
09/28 13:12, 23F
推
09/28 13:13,
2小時前
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09/28 13:13, 24F
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09/28 13:14,
2小時前
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09/28 13:14, 25F
→
09/28 13:14,
2小時前
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09/28 13:14, 26F
→
09/28 13:14,
2小時前
, 27F
09/28 13:14, 27F
推
09/28 13:20,
2小時前
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09/28 13:20, 28F
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09/28 13:21,
2小時前
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09/28 13:21, 29F
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09/28 13:22,
2小時前
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09/28 13:22, 30F
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09/28 13:37,
1小時前
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09/28 13:37, 31F
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09/28 13:38,
1小時前
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09/28 13:38, 32F
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09/28 13:39,
1小時前
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09/28 13:39, 33F
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09/28 13:39,
1小時前
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09/28 13:39, 34F
→
09/28 13:40,
1小時前
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09/28 13:40, 35F
推
09/28 13:42,
1小時前
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09/28 13:42, 36F
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09/28 13:44,
1小時前
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09/28 13:44, 37F
推
09/28 13:45,
1小時前
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09/28 13:45, 38F
→
09/28 13:46,
1小時前
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09/28 13:46, 39F
推
09/28 13:52,
1小時前
, 40F
09/28 13:52, 40F
→
09/28 13:52,
1小時前
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09/28 13:52, 41F
→
09/28 13:53,
1小時前
, 42F
09/28 13:53, 42F
推
09/28 13:53,
1小時前
, 43F
09/28 13:53, 43F
推
09/28 13:57,
1小時前
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09/28 13:57, 44F
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09/28 13:57,
1小時前
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09/28 13:57, 45F
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09/28 14:05,
1小時前
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09/28 14:05, 46F
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09/28 14:11,
1小時前
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09/28 14:11, 47F
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09/28 14:16,
1小時前
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09/28 14:16, 48F
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09/28 14:22,
1小時前
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09/28 14:22, 49F
→
09/28 14:31,
52分鐘前
, 50F
09/28 14:31, 50F
推
09/28 15:01,
22分鐘前
, 51F
09/28 15:01, 51F
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