[分享] Corbin Carroll開季爆發的原因
Why Carroll's early season power surge looks legit
April 13th, 2025
Thomas Harrigan@HarriganMLB
5英尺10英寸、165磅的體格 沒人會將Corbin Carroll與
Aaron Judge或Shohei Ohtani放一起談
但本季到目前為止響尾蛇的超跑表現得像一個big boy
截至週五Carroll的14場比賽炸了五發
Carroll不管界內界外 上場就是要把球打飛
開季以來的擊球品質優異
Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) 0.755 PR99
雖然只是剛開季小數據 這邊專欄列了xSLG排行榜
能窺見24歲Carroll的實力不容忽視
Highest xSLG, 2025^ (Min. 50 plate appearances)
1. Pete Alonso: .863
2. Aaron Judge: .780
3. Fernando Tatis Jr.: .764
4. Corbin Carroll: .755
5. Kyle Schwarber: .752
^Entering Saturday
榜上其餘重砲手共有9個賽季達到40發HR以上
當Carroll在響尾蛇農場潛力新秀排行不斷攀升
並且於2023年入列百大NO.2
當時還沒人能預料他火力如此強大
穩定20發的產量?
對出道就獲得高於平均以上評價是合理的
登上MLB後至今他也實現這期望
2023拿下ROY打了25發 去年也打了22發
一般不會認位他這樣體格的球員能挑戰40發
對吧? 但數據上告訴你不是如此
1. This started last year
從去年持續調整修正
Carroll今年表現與2024產生強烈對比
2024上半上季超低潮
直到5月日才打出第二發HR 之後又過兩個月才第三發
時間追溯到2024年7月7日起 至今轟了25發
(Carroll has gone deep 25 times. -- baseballsavant)
Most home runs since July 7, 2024
1. 32: Aaron Judge
2. 30: Shohei Ohtani
3. 29: Eugenio Suárez
4. 27: Kyle Schwarber
5. 25: Corbin Carroll // Brent Rooker
本季全壘打推移預期47發
2. His swing is faster
快
一般來說bat spped越快力量也就大
Carroll的速度有加快的趨勢
(此數據BA資料從2023開始蒐集紀錄)
2023 (73.2 mph) PR68
2024 (73.7 mph) PR78
2025 (75.2 mph) PR92
https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/48cfc2d0-d4a6-44af-a89f-a9170420fd16.mp4
Statcast“fast” swing的標準為75mph
而Carroll本季有一半的揮棒過門欄 包含五發HR
為此免不了要有些取捨 contact變差
whiff%(揮空率)上升 (21.6~ 20.3~ 29.1)
不過這缺點由下面的進步來彌補
3. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever
打爆! 擊球越來越強
average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate have
三項數據都在PR93以上
雖然僅是小樣本 但從去年開始你可以看到他的進化
Carroll's batted-ball breakdown since 2023
Average exit velocity // hard-hit rate // barrel rate
2023: 90 mph // 40.9% // 7.6%
2024 (first half): 87.9 mph // 36.2% // 3.8%
2024 (second half): 91.3 mph // 47.8% // 12.5%
2025: 96 mph // 63.4% // 19.5%
並且今年有幾球高達115mph的強勁擊球令人驚艷
3月28日打了115.7mph比之前生涯紀錄高了近2mph
4月6日三壘安打再度以115.8mph刷了自己紀錄
4月4日打了自己生涯最快的兩發全壘打(111.8mph, 110.7mph)
Hardest-hit batted balls of Carroll’s career:
1. 115.8 mph, April 6, 2025 (triple)
2. 115.7 mph, March 28, 2025 (lineout)
3. 113.8 mph, May 7, 2023 (double)
4 .112.7 mph, June 23, 2023 (single)
5. 111.8 mph, April 4, 2024 (home run)
Max exit velocity通常代表打者揮擊力量
持續的上升代表選手的進化
4. He’s hitting the ball to the right part of the park
打向右外野
除了擊球方式的改變 球的落點也是重要的一環
另一篇David Adler寫的專欄提到幾位體格不巨的強力打者
--Mookie Betts, José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor
如何善用拉打把球打飛來製造不長見於此體格打者的平射砲
Carroll也仿效類似的打擊方式
從2023~24賽季的16%提高到24.4% (今日資料27.3%)
-- Baseball Savant的新數據資料
pulled air contact%(包含fly balls, line drives and popups)
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/batted-ball
Carroll去年明星賽前後pull air%的變化11.8% / 23.9%
https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/5335ebca-98b3-4abc-9dcb-c31dfdb2f635.mp4
雖然Carroll還沒有盜壘但他仍是MLB最速超跑之一
只不過他現在以不同方式起飛 → 透過將球炸裂
(今天首盜產生,猜除了防守隊捕手或局勢需求
目標應該還是防範肩傷以及專注在打擊為主
去年35盜但也有8CS, 2023年54次5CS)
專欄連結
https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-carroll-2025-home-run-power-surge
※※※
***前面專欄內提到的
David Adler@_dadler專欄
Why you don't need to look like Judge or Ohtani to slug HRs
--(該篇體格身高體重低於 6 feet tall and under 200 pounds打者)
Betts at 5-foot-10, 180 pounds; Ramírez at 5-foot-8, 190 pounds;
Altuve at 5-foot-6, 167 pounds; Bregman at 5-foot-11, 190 pounds;
Lindor at 5-foot-10, 190
--HR拉打數佔了這幾位打者近75%
https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/b7xm3trrfgsikidmfl64.jpg
--擊球點位置
"球棒擊球瞬間距本壘板的距離"
還有擊球重心距擊球位置
把擊球點位置往前可以讓比較不巨的打者打出強勁的飛球
圖例,木屐哥跟阿土伯
https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/i83delmr8y4syen5qysu.jpg
Avg. contact point on HR, since 2023 All-Star break
Betts: 36.7 inches in front of center of mass
Bregman: 35.4 inches in front of center of mass
Ramírez: 34.5 inches in front of center of mass
Lindor: 32.8 inches in front of center of mass
Altuve: 30.4 inches in front of center of mass
體格差對比的打者例子:
Ohtani, 6-foot-4, 28.9 inches in front of his own center of mass.
Mike Trout, at 6-foot-2, 28.6 inches in front of his own center of mass.
Juan Soto, at 6-foot-1, 27.3 inches in front of his own center of mass.
https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/zgakotlumdgreerj27jd.jpg
詳見專欄連結
April 10th, 2025
https://www.mlb.com/news/pulled-fly-balls-key-for-mlb-undersized-sluggers
※※※
2023受傷之後有持續調整打擊站位-準備姿勢-揮擊動作
見另一則Carroll春訓時訪談連結
https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/carroll-swing/3574154/
※※※
Corbin Carroll baseballsavant 個人數據
https://i.imgur.com/GXiis9G.jpeg
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.217.177.149 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1744607012.A.4F1.html
※ 編輯: Yjizz (49.217.177.149 臺灣), 04/14/2025 13:08:25
推
04/14 13:04,
1天前
, 1F
04/14 13:04, 1F
推
04/14 13:05,
1天前
, 2F
04/14 13:05, 2F
推
04/14 13:05,
1天前
, 3F
04/14 13:05, 3F
推
04/14 13:05,
1天前
, 4F
04/14 13:05, 4F
推
04/14 13:07,
1天前
, 5F
04/14 13:07, 5F
推
04/14 13:07,
1天前
, 6F
04/14 13:07, 6F
推
04/14 13:08,
1天前
, 7F
04/14 13:08, 7F
→
04/14 13:08,
1天前
, 8F
04/14 13:08, 8F
→
04/14 13:09,
1天前
, 9F
04/14 13:09, 9F
→
04/14 13:09,
1天前
, 10F
04/14 13:09, 10F
推
04/14 13:10,
1天前
, 11F
04/14 13:10, 11F
推
04/14 13:11,
1天前
, 12F
04/14 13:11, 12F
→
04/14 13:11,
1天前
, 13F
04/14 13:11, 13F
推
04/14 13:12,
1天前
, 14F
04/14 13:12, 14F
→
04/14 13:12,
1天前
, 15F
04/14 13:12, 15F
→
04/14 13:14,
1天前
, 16F
04/14 13:14, 16F
→
04/14 13:15,
1天前
, 17F
04/14 13:15, 17F
推
04/14 13:15,
1天前
, 18F
04/14 13:15, 18F
推
04/14 13:15,
1天前
, 19F
04/14 13:15, 19F
推
04/14 13:16,
1天前
, 20F
04/14 13:16, 20F
推
04/14 13:16,
1天前
, 21F
04/14 13:16, 21F
→
04/14 13:16,
1天前
, 22F
04/14 13:16, 22F
※ 編輯: Yjizz (49.217.177.149 臺灣), 04/14/2025 13:18:03
推
04/14 13:19,
1天前
, 23F
04/14 13:19, 23F
→
04/14 13:20,
1天前
, 24F
04/14 13:20, 24F
推
04/14 13:20,
1天前
, 25F
04/14 13:20, 25F
推
04/14 13:21,
1天前
, 26F
04/14 13:21, 26F
推
04/14 13:22,
1天前
, 27F
04/14 13:22, 27F
→
04/14 13:22,
1天前
, 28F
04/14 13:22, 28F
推
04/14 13:23,
1天前
, 29F
04/14 13:23, 29F
推
04/14 13:24,
1天前
, 30F
04/14 13:24, 30F
→
04/14 13:24,
1天前
, 31F
04/14 13:24, 31F
推
04/14 13:24,
1天前
, 32F
04/14 13:24, 32F
→
04/14 13:25,
1天前
, 33F
04/14 13:25, 33F
推
04/14 13:26,
1天前
, 34F
04/14 13:26, 34F
推
04/14 13:26,
1天前
, 35F
04/14 13:26, 35F
推
04/14 13:28,
1天前
, 36F
04/14 13:28, 36F
推
04/14 13:29,
1天前
, 37F
04/14 13:29, 37F
推
04/14 13:31,
1天前
, 38F
04/14 13:31, 38F
還有 28 則推文
推
04/14 14:30,
1天前
, 67F
04/14 14:30, 67F
推
04/14 14:30,
1天前
, 68F
04/14 14:30, 68F
推
04/14 14:31,
1天前
, 69F
04/14 14:31, 69F
推
04/14 14:31,
1天前
, 70F
04/14 14:31, 70F
推
04/14 14:43,
1天前
, 71F
04/14 14:43, 71F
推
04/14 14:52,
1天前
, 72F
04/14 14:52, 72F
推
04/14 15:01,
1天前
, 73F
04/14 15:01, 73F
推
04/14 15:04,
1天前
, 74F
04/14 15:04, 74F
→
04/14 15:05,
1天前
, 75F
04/14 15:05, 75F
推
04/14 15:05,
1天前
, 76F
04/14 15:05, 76F
推
04/14 15:06,
1天前
, 77F
04/14 15:06, 77F
推
04/14 15:13,
1天前
, 78F
04/14 15:13, 78F
推
04/14 15:15,
1天前
, 79F
04/14 15:15, 79F
推
04/14 15:27,
1天前
, 80F
04/14 15:27, 80F
→
04/14 15:28,
1天前
, 81F
04/14 15:28, 81F
推
04/14 15:40,
1天前
, 82F
04/14 15:40, 82F
推
04/14 15:43,
1天前
, 83F
04/14 15:43, 83F
推
04/14 15:47,
1天前
, 84F
04/14 15:47, 84F
推
04/14 15:50,
1天前
, 85F
04/14 15:50, 85F
推
04/14 15:54,
1天前
, 86F
04/14 15:54, 86F
推
04/14 16:24,
1天前
, 87F
04/14 16:24, 87F
推
04/14 16:32,
1天前
, 88F
04/14 16:32, 88F
推
04/14 16:34,
1天前
, 89F
04/14 16:34, 89F
推
04/14 16:47,
1天前
, 90F
04/14 16:47, 90F
推
04/14 17:04,
1天前
, 91F
04/14 17:04, 91F
推
04/14 17:08,
1天前
, 92F
04/14 17:08, 92F
推
04/14 17:32,
1天前
, 93F
04/14 17:32, 93F
推
04/14 17:47,
1天前
, 94F
04/14 17:47, 94F
推
04/14 18:02,
1天前
, 95F
04/14 18:02, 95F
→
04/14 18:08,
1天前
, 96F
04/14 18:08, 96F
推
04/14 18:22,
1天前
, 97F
04/14 18:22, 97F
推
04/14 19:09,
1天前
, 98F
04/14 19:09, 98F
推
04/14 19:32,
1天前
, 99F
04/14 19:32, 99F
→
04/14 19:32,
1天前
, 100F
04/14 19:32, 100F
→
04/14 19:33,
1天前
, 101F
04/14 19:33, 101F
推
04/14 19:58,
1天前
, 102F
04/14 19:58, 102F
→
04/14 19:58,
1天前
, 103F
04/14 19:58, 103F
推
04/14 20:15,
1天前
, 104F
04/14 20:15, 104F
推
04/14 20:49,
1天前
, 105F
04/14 20:49, 105F
推
04/14 21:05,
1天前
, 106F
04/14 21:05, 106F
Baseball 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章
