[新聞] Poll: When Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara?

看板Baseball (棒球)作者saiulbb (#KEEP MLB GREAT!)時間4小時前 (2025/04/19 23:52)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/1

1. 新聞來源： MLBTR 2. 新聞標題： Poll: When Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara? 3. 新聞內容： By Nick Deeds | April 17, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT While this year’s trade deadline is still more than three months away, there ’s perhaps no more obvious trade candidate in the game right now than Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner, Alcantara missed last season due to Tommy John surgery but is back in action with Miami this year. While he was out of commission, the Marlins tore the roster that made the playoffs in 2023 down to the studs, trading everyone from Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. With no end in sight to the rebuild and Alcantara controlled through the 2027 season, it would be a complete shock if the Marlins held onto him until his contract came to a close. Whenever the Marlins trade Alcantara, he’s sure to be an extremely sought-after commodity. The right-hander’s 4.70 ERA in three starts this year is far from impressive, but his peripherals have looked better. He’s generating grounders at a phenomenal 65.1% clip with a 3.86 FIP and a 3.91 xERA despite his lackluster 19% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate. Those strikeout and walk figures will become concerning if they hold up over a larger sample size, but unless that comes to pass, it seems fair to expect the righty to return to his previous dominant form. Since his full-season debut in 2019, Alcantara has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, a 51% grounder rate, and a 21.4% strikeout rate against a 7.1% walk rate. Those numbers don’t hold a candle to his Cy Young season, where he posted a 2.28 ERA and 2.80 FIP in a campaign that led MLB with 8.0 bWAR, but it’s still clearly front-of-the-rotation caliber production overall. Perhaps even more enticing to teams than Alcantara’s rate production is his status as a true workhorse in a game where arms capable of pitching deep into games on a regular basis have become vanishingly rare. Alcantara hasn’t posted less than 184 2/3 innings in any of his four full seasons, and his 858 1/3 innings of work from 2019 to 2023 were second only to Gerrit Cole. That sort of volume would have value even if Alcantara was a league-average pitcher, given the increasing difficulty with which teams are forced to piece together their rotations. He’s also appealing from a financial point of view. He is making $17MM this year and next year, less than half of what some other ace pitchers get. Then there’s a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027. Given his ace-level upside, workhorse reputation, years of control, and affordable contract, Alcantara’s status as one of the most valuable trade chips in the sport is unlikely to change. That gives the Marlins the ability to stay flexible with their plans regarding the prized righty. Reporters Will Sammon of The Athletic and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have suggested that the Marlins have not yet decided if they’ll trade Alcantara at all this season. Alcantara himself tells Jackson that he wants to stay in Miami but is aware that he has no say in the matter. “I’m [just] a player,” he said. “ If they want to trade me for a bag, they can trade me.” While the righty eventually getting moved appears to be something of a fait accompli, the Fish would still have two full seasons of team control to market if they opted to move him this offseason instead. Of course, teams will likely be willing to pay a higher premium for Alcantara at the deadline, when they’d have him available for three pennant races and he wouldn’t be competing with a free agent market rich in rotation talent like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez. Unless the 8-10 Marlins are able to make a surprise surge into contention for an NL Wild Card spot this summer or Alcantara’s performance declines enough that lucrative trade offers start to dry up, it’s hard to see the club getting more value out of their star by waiting for the offseason. With that said, another year of information regarding their prospects and young players could allow them to make more informed decisions about which areas of the roster to target improvements for in the return package. Could the Marlins benefit from moving Alcantara even earlier, as they did with Arraez last May? Such a decision wouldn’t give Alcantara much of an opportunity to prove he’s healthy and back to his usual form, but the extra few months of starts could be very attractive to clubs like the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres that are dealing with injury woes in their rotation already. What’s more, it’s not impossible to imagine a team like the Astros (Valdez), Twins (Pablo Lopez), or Royals (Seth Lugo) that is currently attempting to compete winding up on the outside of the playoff picture come July and marketing their own top starters. That would give potential suitors for Alcantara alternative options they surely wouldn’t have available to them this early in the calendar. When do MLBTR readers think the Marlins should start trying to trade Alcantara? Would jumping the market and opening up the bidding now allow them to maximize their asset, should they wait to see if Alcantara can re-establish himself more before putting him on the market this summer, or could waiting even longer to deal him this offseason be the best course to take? Have your say in the poll below: When should the Marlins trade Sandy Alcantara? Start listening to offers right away, before alternatives hit the market. 48.18% (3,120 votes) Wait until closer to the trade deadline in hopes he improves his results. 39.05% (2,529 votes) Don't trade him at all. Hold and try to compete. 7.71% (499 votes) Hold off for the offseason to see how the current crop of prospects develops. 5.06% (328 votes) 4. 新聞網址： https://reurl.cc/GnjRxy 5. 備註： MLBTR民調：馬林魚什麼時候交易王牌Alcantara？雖然距交易大限還有三個多月，但如果要找目前最有可能被交易的球員，馬林魚的王牌 Sandy Alcantara絕對榜上有名。Alcantara是2022年國聯賽揚獎，不過去年因為Tommy John手術整季報銷，今年重新回到馬林魚輪值。不過問題是在他養傷期間，馬林魚已把 2023年季後賽成員交易走了：Luis Arraez、Jazz Chisholm Jr.、Trevor Rogers、 Jesus Luzardo等。馬林魚顯然進入重建期，而且看起來還要重建一段時間。Alcantara到 2027年才進入FA，若馬林魚到約滿才放人，那才真的讓人跌破眼鏡。 Alcantara的現況？(文章是前三場，已更新至第四場的數據) Alcantara目前4場先發的防禦率是7.27、滾地球率超級高（59.6%），FIP是4.76，xERA 是4.72。三振率只有17.3%，保送率卻有13.3%，這兩個數字如果長期下去會是隱憂。不過除非他的數據持續低迷，否則他還是有機會回到過去的狀態。2019年完整出賽以來，他的數據是 ERA 3.38、FIP 3.73、滾地球率 50.6%、K% 21.3%、BB% 7.1%。雖然這些數字不及奪下賽揚的那年（ERA 2.28、FIP 2.80，WAR 8.0），但他仍屬王牌等級的先發投手。耐操又便宜，性價比超高在現今先發投手很難長局數的時代，Alcantara最大的價值是他十分耐投。過去四季最低都有184.2局，2019~2023 累積了 858.1 局，只有Gerrit Cole 投得比他多。就算只有繳出聯盟平均水準，這種吃局數的能力也十分有價值。更何況他的合約也很便宜，相較於現在許多王牌年薪動輒就破$30MM，Alcantara的CP值真的很高： 2025 & 2026 年薪：$1700MM 2027 (球隊選擇權)：（$21MM，買斷金 $2MM）交易的時機點在哪？基於他還有幾年才進FA、實力又夠穩定，馬林魚對於何時交易他富有操作彈性，曾有媒體披露球隊內部還沒做出決定，Alcantara本人也說他想留在邁阿密，但知道自己沒話語權：「我只是球員，如果他們想拿一個包包換掉我也沒辦法。」雖然他被交易看起來是遲早的事，但馬林魚也可以選擇晚一點再交易（例如本季結束後還有兩年控制權，交易價值仍然很高）。馬林魚要什麼時候出手最好？各隊如果在交易大限時才出手，願意付出的代價可能會更高，因為那時Alcantara能幫助爭取各分區龍頭，而且Alcantara還有較長的控制年限，不像Dylan Cease、Zac Gallen、 Framber Valdez今年球季結束就成為自由球員。除非馬林魚能爆冷取得外卡資格，或 Alcantara的表現差到報價縮水，否則很難期待馬林魚等到休季才交易還指望能換回更好的包裹。不過換個角度來看，如果馬林魚願意等到季後再交易，那時也比較好掌握農場的現況，對於要補哪些位置、開出什麼樣的包裹會更有把握。還是馬林魚像Arraez交易案一樣，提前就交易Alcantara？這麼做的缺點是Alcantara可能還沒來得及證明自己的狀態已完全康復，但多幾個月時間，對一些目前先發輪值已有受傷的球隊（像洋基、小熊、教士）可能很有吸引力。此外，也不能排除有些目前有競爭力的球隊到了七月會跌出競爭行列，像太空人Valdez、雙城 Pablo Lopez、皇家Seth Lugo，到時候也可能把自家王牌拿出來交易。屆時有意Alcantara 的球隊可能會有更多選擇，而不像現在這麼少選擇。 MLBTR截至目前的票數分布如下（來自MLBTR網站）： 1. 現在就開始接受報價：48.18%（3,120票） 2. 等到交易大限前看他表現：39.05%（2,529票） 3. 不交易，留下來當作基石：7.71%（499票） 4. 等到球季後再說：5.06%（328票） -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.161.136.17 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1745077924.A.C00.html ※ 編輯: saiulbb (118.161.136.17 臺灣), 04/19/2025 23:57:28