PTT體育區 / Baseball (棒球)

[分享] 大聯盟官網：村上砲瓦驚人、Contact是隱

看板Baseball (棒球)作者 (無無)時間3小時前 (2025/11/06 10:44), 3小時前編輯推噓66(68推 2噓 74→)
留言144則, 69人參與, 26分鐘前最新討論串1/1
大聯盟官網撰文分析村上的優缺點 https://reurl.cc/eV98a7 First things first: Murakami's power is still enormous. 首先要說的是：村上宗隆的力量依然驚人 Murakami was limited to just 56 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury, but he p rovided plenty of big swings after he came back. 2025年他因腹斜肌受傷僅出賽56場，但復出後火力全開 Once Murakami got back in the Swallows lineup, he went on a tear. He hit 22 home runs in his 56 games, which is an even higher home run pace than his 56 homers in 141 games in 2022. 村上回到養樂多燕子的打線後立刻展現強勢火力 他在56場比賽中擊出22支全壘打，這個速度甚至比他2022年在141場比賽轟出56支時還要更 快 Murakami finished in the top five in NPB in homers … despite barely playing a t hird of the games as the only hitters in front of him on the leaderboard. So he' s still got the pop. 儘管只出賽大約三分之一的賽程，村上全壘打數仍排名NPB前五名——在他前面的打者幾乎 都是全年出賽的，可見他的長打威力依然驚人 In 2025, Murakami was more than twice as good as the average NPB hitter, with a 208 wRC+ that was reminiscent of his 2022 season. He once again excelled at crus hing fly balls and has tons of pull power, which is how plenty of MLB sluggers, like Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber, get their home runs. Murakami is a highly f eared hitter, whose prodigious power also helps him draw tons of walks. 2025年，村上的打擊表現比NPB平均打者高出兩倍以上，wRC+高達208，彷彿重現他2022年的 巔峰 他擅擁有強大的拉打火力——就像MLB的強打者Cal Raleigh和Kyle Schwarber那樣，村上是 一位讓投手畏懼的打者，他驚人的力量也讓他獲得大量保送 https://i.imgur.com/yy1t2K1.jpeg
Murakami's best hitting stats -- via NPB Batter Profile app 村上宗隆打擊數據 —— 資料來源：NPB Batter Profile And that respect from pitchers is deserved. Like some of those big lefty slugger s in the Majors, Murakami can reach the upper echelons of exit velocity. He defi nitely stacks up with the hardest hitters in MLB. 投手對他的敬畏絕對是應該的 就像大聯盟中那些左打強打者一樣，村上的擊球初速能達到頂尖水準，他的力量足以和MLB 最強打者並列 Murakami's max exit velocity during the 2025 season was 116.5 mph, according to NPB tracking data newly provided in the league's NPB+ app. That's harder than mo st MLB sluggers ever hit the ball. 根據NPB新推出的「NPB+」追蹤數據，村上在2025年的擊球初速最高達到116.5英里（約187. 5公里） 這比多數MLB強打者的最高擊球速度還要快 Max exit velo is an important metric for a hitter because it tells you, generall y, how high his ceiling is as a power hitter. The harder you can hit the ball, t he better your outcomes can be as a batter. 最快擊球初速是一項重要的數據，因為它能顯示打者作為強打者的潛力 你能把球打得越快，打擊結果通常就越好 Hitting the ball extremely hard is a skill. Hitting the ball as Murakami can is a rare skill. 能夠極強勁地擊球是一種技巧； 而像村上那樣擊球的能力，是極為罕見的天賦 In 2025, only 23 MLB hitters hit even one ball 116 mph or harder. And only nine left-handed hitters did it, a list headlined by Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Schwarbe r, Elly De La Cruz and, of course, Shohei Ohtani. 在2025年整個MLB賽季中，只有23位打者擊出過一次初速達116英里以上的球；其中僅有9位 是左打者——Oneil Cruz、James Wood、Schwarber、Elly De La Cruz），以及大谷翔平 Murakami's 116.5 mph max exit velo this season is also in line with the numbers we saw from him during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when he played in front of Statcast tracking systems. 村上本季116.5英里的擊球初速與他在2023年世界棒球經典賽中Statcast記錄的數據相近， 展現出一致的強打水準 His hardest-hit ball tracked in the tournament was a 115.1 mph home run off Merr ill Kelly in Japan's win over the U.S. in the championship game. This year in ML B, only 19 players hit a home run 115 mph or harder. The nine of those who are l efties include Ohtani, Cruz, Schwarber, Wood, De La Cruz and Juan Soto. 在那屆經典賽中，他擊出的最強一球是對上美國隊投手Merrill Kelly時打出的初速115.1英 里全壘打 2025年整季MLB只有19位球員打出初速115英里以上的全壘打，其中左打者包括大谷翔平、Cr uz、Schwarber、Wood、De La Cruz和Juan Soto Murakami looks like he could also have the high bat speeds to produce those hard -hit balls regularly. Also per the NPB+ app, his max bat speed in 2025 was 85.7 mph. For reference, Statcast's "fast swing" threshold for bat speed is 75-plus m ph, and the only MLB hitter who averages a bat speed of 80-plus mph is Giancarlo Stanton. 村上看起來也擁有能穩定擊出高擊球初速的揮棒速度 根據NPB+的數據，他2025年的最高揮棒速度為85.7英里，作為比較，Statcast定義的「fast swing」門檻是75英里以上，而全MLB平均揮棒速度超過80英里的，Giancarlo Stanton一人 Now, there's not much real insight to be gained just from Murakami's highest ind ividual swing speed, as plenty of hitters can generate those high bat speeds by taking an all-out hack once in a while. It's more just a teaser. We don't have a n average bat speed number for Murakami yet. But we can hope that given Murakami 's exit velocity and power production that results from his swings, he will have the bat speed to match. 當然僅從村上單次的最高揮棒速度還無法看出太多實質內容——很多打者偶爾全力揮擊時也 能達到高數值 這更像是一個「預告」，目前我們還沒有村上的平均揮棒速度數據，但從他擊球初速與長打 火力來看，他應該具備與之匹配的揮棒速度 But the big question: Can Murakami get his K's down? 但最大的問題是：村上宗隆能否降低他的三振率？ If Murakami were jumping to the Major Leagues after his 2022 season, this wouldn 't be so urgent a question. While his strikeout numbers were still relatively hi gh for NPB -- a lower-strikeout league than MLB -- they were a lot lower than th ey are now. 如果村上是在2022年球季之後挑戰大聯盟，這個問題或許還不至於那麼緊迫，雖然2022他在 日本職棒的三振數在當時已屬偏高——畢竟NPB的三振率比MLB低——但那時的數據仍比現在 好多了 Murakami's K's have ballooned in the three seasons since his record-setting year . That resulted in a dip in production at the plate in 2023 and '24 (Murakami wa s still very good as a hitter, just not historically good), and even stayed true in 2025, when his offensive numbers rebounded. 自從締造破紀錄賽季以來的三年間，村上的三振數大幅增加，這導致他在2023、2024年打擊 成績有所下滑（他仍是優秀的打者，只是不再具有歷史性水準），即使到了2025年打擊數據 回升，這個趨勢依然存在 Those underlying numbers -- high swing-and-miss, high strikeouts, low contact -- are the No. 1 concern with Murakami as an MLB hitter. 這些潛在數據——揮空率高、三振多、低Contact——是評估村上成為MLB打者時的首要隱憂 Murakami's swing-and-miss and K numbers by season Per DeltaGraphs 2022: 31.7% whiff rate, 20.9% strikeout rate 2023: 34.3% whiff rate, 28.1% strikeout rate 2024: 37.3% whiff rate, 29.5% strikeout rate 2025: 36.7% whiff rate, 28.6% strikeout rate 村上宗隆各年度揮空率與三振率（資料來源：DeltaGraphs） 2022年：揮空率31.7%，三振率20.9% 2023年：揮空率34.3%，三振率28.1% 2024年：揮空率37.3%，三振率29.5% 2025年：揮空率36.7%，三振率28.6% Such a high swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate in Japan is not good -- when NPB sluggers come to MLB, their contact numbers already tend to get worse. And M urakami's whiff rate and K% would have both been among the highest in MLB in 202 5. 在日本出現如此高的揮空率與三振率並不是好現象——因為日本打者登上MLB後，Contact數 據通常會進一步惡化，而以村上的數據來看，他的揮空率與三振率在2025年將足以名列MLB 最糟等級之一 As Yuri Karasawa noted in a thorough breakdown of Murakami over at JapanBall, Mu rakami's contact rate on pitches in the strike zone in 2025 was just 72.6%, down from 77.1% in 2022. In MLB, the average in-zone contact rate is 82.5%. 根據JapanBall網站的深入報告指出，村上在2025年對好球帶內投球的Contact%僅為72.6%， 比2022年的77.1%下降不少，作為比較MLB平均的好球帶內Contact%為82.5% In the Major Leagues, even elite high-power, high-strikeout sluggers like Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Schwarber will keep their in-zone contact rates above 75%. Onl y a few star sluggers like Rafael Devers and Nick Kurtz dipped below that thresh old in 2025. And again, the NPB-to-MLB move has a tendency to bring those contac t rates down. 在大聯盟中，即便是強打型、高三振的頂級打者，如Aaron Judge、大谷翔平及Schwarber， 他們的好球帶Contact%仍維持在75%以上 只有少數球星如Rafael Devers與Nick Kurtz在2025年跌破這個門檻，而且一如往常，從NPB 轉戰MLB的過程往往會讓這些Contact%再度下降 Other Japanese sluggers like Seiya Suzuki have had much higher contact rates whe n they came to MLB. But Karasawa did note one interesting comparison who was mor e in line with Murakami: a young Ohtani, who had similar high hard-hit rates and contact metrics to Murakami when he joined the Angels in the 2017-18 offseason at age 22. 其他日本強打者如鈴木誠也在登上MLB時的Contact%明顯較高 不過也有一個有趣的比較對象——年輕時的大谷翔平，當他在2017-18年休賽季以22歲之齡 加盟天使隊時，其強勁擊球率與Contact數據與現在的村上相當接近 But there's risk for Murakami. High velocity, as well as secondary pitches -- es pecially breaking pitches from left-handed pitchers and offspeed pitches from ri ght-handed pitchers -- posed problems for Murakami. Again, that doesn't bode par ticularly well for batting in MLB, where high-velocity fastballs are more preval ent and wipeout breaking and offspeed pitches are heavily used. 不過對村上來說仍存在風險，高球速的速球與變化球——特別是左投的變化球、右投的offs peed——對他造成不少困擾，這對他在MLB的打擊前景並非好兆頭，因為在那裡高球速的速 球與具破壞性的變化球比日本更常見、使用頻率也更高 This season, Murakami swung at missed at nearly half of the offspeed pitches he swung at vs. righties, and nearly two thirds of the breaking pitches he swung at vs. lefties, per data from the handy NPB Batter Profile app. He'll have to work on making more contact against those secondary pitches in MLB. 根據NPB Batter Profil的數據顯示，本季村上在面對右投手時，對offspeed的揮空率接近 一半；而對左投手的變化球，揮空率甚至高達三分之二 他必須在進入MLB後，提升對這類變化球的contact能力 https://i.imgur.com/Of8peoD.jpeg
揮空率 整體 vs右投 vs左投 直球 27.1% 26.6% 27.7% Breaking 48.1% 39.5% 65.1% Offspead 45.9% 45.2% 47.8% So Murakami's No. 1 goal when he arrives in MLB will have to be improving his co ntact ability while maintaining his elite power. 因此村上宗隆登上大聯盟後的首要目標，將是提升contact能力，同時維持他那頂級的長打 火力 If he does that, he will be a star slugger in the Majors. His bat is just that d angerous. 如果他能做到這一點，他將成為MLB中的明星級強打者——他的打擊威脅性，確實達到那個 層級 As others have noted, Murakami could be a Matt Olson type, or a Devers, or a Woo d or Riley Greene -- players for whom the strikeouts-for-home-run-power tradeoff is worth it in a big way. 正如一些評論指出，村上可能會發展成類似Matt Olson、Devers、Wood或Riley Greene這 類打者——他們都屬於那種「以高三振換取強大火力」非常值得的類型 — 最近美媒合約預測 Jim Bowden 160M/6Y Tim Britton 158M/8Y BA 140M/7Y NBC 120M/5Y -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.162.45.224 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1762397043.A.176.html ※ 編輯: zxc906383 (1.162.45.224 臺灣), 11/06/2025 10:44:36 ※ 編輯: zxc906383 (1.162.45.224 臺灣), 11/06/2025 10:45:21
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11/06 10:45, 3小時前 , 1F
那應該不是隱憂而是明憂 XD
11/06 10:45, 1F
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11/06 10:46, 3小時前 , 2F
先是contact再來才是power 你打不到球 就是砲瓦揮空氣
11/06 10:46, 2F
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11/06 10:46, 3小時前 , 3F
去美國還打的出來嗎
11/06 10:46, 3F
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11/06 10:46, 3小時前 , 4F
難以避免要一直跟大谷比較
11/06 10:46, 4F
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11/06 10:47, 3小時前 , 5F
簡單來說這篇一堆例子告訴你只有大谷是例外 其他差不多
11/06 10:47, 5F
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11/06 10:47, 3小時前 , 6F
成績的在MLB都變成無情的被三振機器
11/06 10:47, 6F
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11/06 10:48, 3小時前 , 7F
翻譯:球棒控制差
11/06 10:48, 7F
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11/06 10:51, 3小時前 , 8F
又一個日製電風扇嗎
11/06 10:51, 8F
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11/06 10:52, 3小時前 , 9F
要不老K要不HR
11/06 10:52, 9F
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11/06 10:52, 3小時前 , 10F
翻譯：日本製造的電風扇
11/06 10:52, 10F
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11/06 10:53, 3小時前 , 11F
Contact不是隱憂，是致命傷
11/06 10:53, 11F
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11/06 10:54, 3小時前 , 12F
村上就很乾尬 年紀輕 要簽他一定要長約 但克服不了
11/06 10:54, 12F
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11/06 10:54, 3小時前 , 13F
速球的話 風險真的很高 但機體又很香
11/06 10:54, 13F
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11/06 10:54, 3小時前 , 14F
k%很高，也會被左殺
11/06 10:54, 14F
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11/06 10:54, 3小時前 , 15F
會變成筒香2.0 嗎?
11/06 10:54, 15F
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11/06 10:55, 3小時前 , 16F
不就大谷破產版，大谷contact也是很慘吃一堆K
11/06 10:55, 16F
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11/06 10:56, 3小時前 , 17F
有DH位置的球隊該賭一把就該賭
11/06 10:56, 17F
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11/06 10:56, 3小時前 , 18F
紅襪要賭嗎
11/06 10:56, 18F
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11/06 10:57, 3小時前 , 19F
不就忙砲
11/06 10:57, 19F
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11/06 10:57, 3小時前 , 20F
年輕版的筒神
11/06 10:57, 20F
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11/06 10:57, 3小時前 , 21F
日職是痛苦球，能打那樣不容易
11/06 10:57, 21F
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11/06 11:00, 3小時前 , 22F
大谷去美國的時候 還有人說他高中生打者咧
11/06 11:00, 22F
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11/06 11:00, 3小時前 , 23F
事實上他也是去美國進化之後才變成超強打者
11/06 11:00, 23F
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11/06 11:00, 3小時前 , 24F
能去美國也是因為投球 根本沒人看好他打擊
11/06 11:00, 24F
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11/06 11:00, 3小時前 , 25F
當初還一堆說大谷打擊就是破產版松井的 笑死
11/06 11:00, 25F
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11/06 11:00, 3小時前 , 26F
不過村上這張不可能小的 年紀+打擊實力太吃香了
11/06 11:00, 26F
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11/06 11:01, 3小時前 , 27F
就盲砲 集k換hr
11/06 11:01, 27F
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11/06 11:01, 3小時前 , 28F
意思是到MLB可能會變盲砲
11/06 11:01, 28F
噓
11/06 11:03, 3小時前 , 29F
大谷去美國整個打擊升級，不過他是22去的，而且他
11/06 11:03, 29F
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11/06 11:03, 3小時前 , 30F
是棒球史上目前為止的天才
11/06 11:03, 30F
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11/06 11:03, 3小時前 , 31F
2025大谷K% PR28 揮空率PR4，但打擊數據就還是很高
11/06 11:03, 31F
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11/06 11:03, 3小時前 , 32F
大聯盟變化球苦手
11/06 11:03, 32F
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11/06 11:04, 3小時前 , 33F
會變超強工業電扇
11/06 11:04, 33F
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11/06 11:04, 3小時前 , 34F
所以要讓大谷揮空從數據來看不是啥難事？
11/06 11:04, 34F
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11/06 11:05, 3小時前 , 35F
大谷超會揮空的，嚴格來說也是盲砲
11/06 11:05, 35F
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11/06 11:06, 3小時前 , 36F
如果沒有contact那就是盲砲.. 有power也沒用..
11/06 11:06, 36F
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11/06 11:06, 3小時前 , 37F
要讓大谷揮空不難 但大谷要炸你同樣不難啊
11/06 11:06, 37F
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11/06 11:06, 3小時前 , 38F
要看能不能順利轉換型態吧！
11/06 11:06, 38F
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11/06 11:06, 3小時前 , 39F
那也是打DH能打到MVP的盲砲
11/06 11:06, 39F
還有 65 則推文
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11/06 12:07, 2小時前 , 105F
天花板應該就是全盛時期的Joey Gallo 但守備很破
11/06 12:07, 105F
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11/06 12:12, 2小時前 , 106F
揮空率高比較像是打擊策略的結果
11/06 12:12, 106F
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11/06 12:12, 2小時前 , 107F
你要有足夠本事才能去選擇那種打擊策略
11/06 12:12, 107F
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11/06 12:13, 2小時前 , 108F
大聯盟的投手變化球也更好
11/06 12:13, 108F
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11/06 12:13, 2小時前 , 109F
本事不夠就是變成Gallo那種盲砲
11/06 12:13, 109F
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11/06 12:14, 2小時前 , 110F
TTO執行的夠好的一定也都是精英打者
11/06 12:14, 110F
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11/06 12:15, 2小時前 , 111F
速球打不好可能比較危險
11/06 12:15, 111F
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11/06 12:17, 2小時前 , 112F
村上的問題看起來就比剛旅美的大谷跟山本都大太多了 不
11/06 12:17, 112F
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11/06 12:17, 2小時前 , 113F
曉得為什麼會拿他們兩個來比
11/06 12:17, 113F
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11/06 12:21, 2小時前 , 114F
力量是不太會衰退的能力 更何況他很年輕
11/06 12:21, 114F
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11/06 12:23, 1小時前 , 115F
工業電風扇
11/06 12:23, 115F
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11/06 12:24, 1小時前 , 116F
力量才是最會衰退的吧
11/06 12:24, 116F
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11/06 12:24, 1小時前 , 117F
進化版的筒香，不過村上打速球沒那麼糟
11/06 12:24, 117F
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11/06 12:26, 1小時前 , 118F
奔跑爆發力最容易掉 揮棒爆發力相對不會掉
11/06 12:26, 118F
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11/06 12:29, 1小時前 , 119F
和製電風扇
11/06 12:29, 119F
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11/06 12:39, 1小時前 , 120F
就電風扇啊，不要被嘎到就好
11/06 12:39, 120F
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11/06 12:39, 1小時前 , 121F
簡單總結就是個盲砲，說話都要拐彎抹角
11/06 12:39, 121F
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11/06 12:42, 1小時前 , 122F
就高配版本的筒香，成績大概就筒香x1.5
11/06 12:42, 122F
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11/06 12:45, 1小時前 , 123F
只會打150速球 合約總值超過50M都盤到不行
11/06 12:45, 123F
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11/06 12:45, 1小時前 , 124F
到MLB長打會被壓縮很多
11/06 12:45, 124F
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11/06 12:46, 1小時前 , 125F
能當盲槍就不錯了 當盲泡太苛求
11/06 12:46, 125F
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11/06 12:52, 1小時前 , 126F
去mlb先五折吧
11/06 12:52, 126F
推
11/06 12:52, 1小時前 , 127F
到MLB被鋸砲的可能性不小
11/06 12:52, 127F
推
11/06 12:54, 1小時前 , 128F
大谷沒很貴是因為不符國際球員的年限規定只能簽便宜約
11/06 12:54, 128F
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11/06 12:54, 1小時前 , 129F
好嗎？他當初只差一年就滿年資可以簽肥約了但他就是想
11/06 12:54, 129F
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11/06 12:54, 1小時前 , 130F
挑戰大聯盟不管會少拿多少錢 但天賦就在那所以大家都想
11/06 12:54, 130F
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11/06 12:54, 1小時前 , 131F
要也就變成是大谷在面試球隊 結果事實証明在年輕還在成
11/06 12:54, 131F
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11/06 12:54, 1小時前 , 132F
長時早點去改造變成史無前例的獨角獸
11/06 12:54, 132F
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11/06 12:55, 1小時前 , 133F
用大谷的簽約金看他當初去大聯盟的價值也太瞎
11/06 12:55, 133F
噓
11/06 13:08, 1小時前 , 134F
沒事啦，和製巨砲到MLB一律先鋸砲管
11/06 13:08, 134F
推
11/06 13:18, 1小時前 , 135F
看起來長約真的滿賭的
11/06 13:18, 135F
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11/06 13:18, 1小時前 , 136F
這天花板是不是比較偏坦頓那種啊…………
11/06 13:18, 136F
推
11/06 13:40, 41分鐘前 , 137F
這揮空率高的嚇人O口O
11/06 13:40, 137F
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11/06 13:41, 40分鐘前 , 138F
阿筒2.0
11/06 13:41, 138F
推
11/06 13:44, 37分鐘前 , 139F
和製電風扇
11/06 13:44, 139F
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11/06 13:46, 35分鐘前 , 140F
法官揮空率還比大谷高 他們這種等級的選手看揮空率
11/06 13:46, 140F
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11/06 13:46, 35分鐘前 , 141F
沒什麼意義
11/06 13:46, 141F
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11/06 13:54, 27分鐘前 , 142F
SSK也是拿小聯盟約仍執意去MLB試身手的啊
11/06 13:54, 142F
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11/06 13:54, 27分鐘前 , 143F
應該就是看好他的天賦去MLB會在進化
11/06 13:54, 143F
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11/06 13:55, 26分鐘前 , 144F
早點去的好處是能修就爆發 不能修還有退路回去打
11/06 13:55, 144F
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