[情報] Toronto Blue Jays: Chat Wrap
Toronto Blue Jays: Chat Wrap
By Matt Eddy
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November 13, 2006 Print this article
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2007.
Q: Ron from Dallas asks:
What are the chances Adam Lind starts the season in Toronto next year? I would think the Jays could use their resources better than to sign a free agent dhof when they already have one in house. This guy looks like the real deal with the stick. What's the problem with the mit?
A:
Matt Eddy: Lind should spend the majority of 2007 with Toronto, and will certainly make the team out of spring training if he hits in March. And there's no reason to think he won't. Lind has hit and hit for power at every rung of the minors and made a loud major league debut last September, hitting .400 through his first dozen or so games.
Matt Eddy: The trouble with the mitt is that Lind was drafted as a first baseman and made the switch to left field as a pro. His instincts are never going to be much more than average and his arm and range are just playable. He's never played a pro game at first base, and the Jays seemed hesitant to play him at all in the field, opting to DH him in all but two games.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
Assuming Snider proves this year was no fluke, how quickly could he jump through the system?
A:
Matt Eddy: We really have very little recent precedent for this in the Jays' system, but look for Snider to spend a full year at low Class A and another at high Class A. That would put him on pace to reach Double-A in 2009, at which point he's just a phone call away from Toronto.
Matt Eddy: To address questions on Snider vs. Orioles 3B Bill Rowell, the ninth overall pick last June: I ranked Snider ahead of Rowell in the Appalachian League because while Rowell has stronger defensive tools, Snider showed much more consistent power and contact ability. Nobody questioned Snider's makeup, either, like some have Rowell's.
Q: Jim S. from Milwaukee asks:
When the Brewers acquired Zack Jackson, I heard that Toronto was glad they gave up Jackson instead of Purcey. Who would you say is the better prospect?
A:
Matt Eddy: At this point, it has to be Jackson, who almost certainly would have gotten starts in Toronto this year with the injuries to Burnett and Chacin. As it was, Jackson pitched reasonably well for the Brewers in Triple-A and had his moments in the big leagues.
Matt Eddy: Purcey simply has not shown the consistency needed to dominate a minor league level. As a first-round pick, he'll get ample opportunity to turn it around.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
What does League need to improve on, and where would he have ranked here?
A:
Matt Eddy: Toronto would probably be happy if League simply repeated the success he had in the second half of 2006. Had he not surpassed 50 big league innings, he would have ranked fourth because of his plus arm strength and two-seamer.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
I'm actually a fan of Joey Metropoulos - he has pretty good power, but would you consider that his only tool? Did he crack the top 30 this time around? And is there a future for him in Toronto?
A:
Matt Eddy: Metropoulos did not crack the top 30, and sits behind Chip Cannon and 2006 fifth-rounder Luke Hopkins on the organizational depth chart. Both are lefty hitters with power, so Metropoulos would have to hit for incredible power to overtake them.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
Snider - best overall bat in the first round this year, or did he just have the best season?
A:
Matt Eddy: Many regarded Snider as the best high school bat, but the best hitter has to be No. 3 overall pick Evan Longoria, who slugged 18 home runs in a half season with the Devil Rays.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
Does Jeroloman bring more to the table than just his defense at this point? Could he be a legitimate threat to Thigpen at some point in the future?
A:
Matt Eddy: Sort of. Brian Jeroloman is capable of hitting singles and drawing walks, but defense is definitely his calling card. He projects as more complement--because he bats lefthanded and is a superior defender--than threat to Thigpen.
Q: The Man from Seattle asks:
How close was the decision between Lind and Snider?
A:
Matt Eddy: Not too close. Lind's big year--especially with regard to increased home run production--was the culmination of two very sound ones, so he earned his ranking. Snider would have to be the frontrunner for next year's No. 1 ranking.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
Hi Matt - I'm sure I'll be one of many to ask this question, but where would Chip Cannon fall on this list? Would his current tear in the AFL factor in at all, or is his ceiling just not high enough?
A:
Matt Eddy: Cannon's demolition of the AFL was not a factor in his ranking in the top 30. As we know, the league favors hitters heavily. And even though Cannon is challenging Brandon Wood's AFL home run record, his strikeout rate is still too high to be an elite prospect.
Matt Eddy: He's easy to root for, though, and he did use his AFL stint to increase flexion in his knees and to shorten his swing to better drive outside pitches.
Q: Gerry from Toronto asks:
Anthony Hatch seems to hit wherever he plays, did he make the top 30 and can he stick in the middle infield?
A:
Matt Eddy: Hatch might be the Blue Jays biggest hitting prospect sleeper. He tore up the Midwest League and, while he played three infield spots, his natural position is third base. The Blue Jays wanted to give him more time at second base in high Class A and in instructional league, but injuries to both wrists shelved that idea.
Q: Tom T from Houston asks:
I was a little surprised to see Curtis Thigpen at #5. Are there concerns about his bat being enough to play everyday? The walks are impressive, but he also has alot of strikeouts and hasn't shown much power thus far. Does the team expect him to push his slugging percentage up as he ages?
A:
Matt Eddy: Making the call between Thigpen and Ryan Patterson at No. 4 was probably the toughest ranking on the list. The reasoning behind the decision was that Patterson, who ranked 11th in the minors in extra-base hits, projects to be a productive major league corner outfielder and has been somewhat overlooked. He doesn't wow with any one tool, but his game is well-rounded.
Matt Eddy: Thigpen's ultimate role is less clear. He has an extremely good batting eye and all the agility and athleticism you could want from a catcher. But he's struggled with his throwing, and he missed developmental time at Double-A this year to a staph infection. He gets good backspin on the ball, but will probably never develop home run power.
Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:
Any consideration for Josh Banks? Where do you see him in the pecking order for young arms?
A:
Matt Eddy: Banks is the next righthander on our list. While he struggled for much of the Syracuse season, he has proven to be one of the most durable pitchers in the minors. His fastball was pretty straight and often caught too much of the plate, though, as his 35 home runs allowed will attest. He's working to add cut or sink to his fastball.
Q: Gerry from Toronto asks:
Are there any prospects in the Jays young Latin pitchers, Wilfreddy Aguirre, Reidier Gonzalez, Hector Delgadillo or Francisco Mateo?
A:
Matt Eddy: RHP Rey Gonzalez is your best bet there, but even he was repeating the Appy League.
Q: Eddie Money from Paradise asks:
What were reports on McGowan in the AFL?
A:
Matt Eddy: Encouraging. McGowan showed a plus fastball and a plus slider at times. Strangely, he showed more inconsistency with his changeup, which was considered his best secondary offering in 2005.
Matt Eddy: RHP Kyle Yates, who is leading the AFL in innings and strikeouts, has been arguably the league's best pitcher. He's kept his fastball down, allowing just one home run, and his curveball has been consistently a plus offering. He doesn't have exceptional velocity, but look for Yates to challenge for a bullpen spot at some point next season.
Q: Bertram from Taiwan asks:
In the draft preview, Snider is listed at 6-3, 220. In the top 10 league prospects he's listed at 5-11, 245. In this top 10 he is listed at 6-0, 220. What shoud we beleive? With his work ethic as strong as everyone says, are there any concerns about his weight?
A:
Matt Eddy: The concerns are minimal, but, yes, Snider will have to focus on conditioning. He was probably closer to the 5-foot-11, 245 pounds figure you listed, with the layoff between his high school season and signing a factor. Our statistical provider lists different heights and weights on their 2006 and career pages for some players, thus the confusion.
Q: Evan Kluger from Toronto asks:
What affect will no longer having an Appy League club have on the organization? And more importantly, how will you survive a Pulaski-less summer covering the Appalachian League?
A:
Matt Eddy: We won't know for a few years. The effect in the short term should be minimal because most of Toronto's prospects are advanced. But the opening day assignments for young Latin players like Yohermyn Chavez and Balbino Fuenmayor will be interesting. Are they ready fo the New York-Penn League?
Matt Eddy: The elimination of the Rookie club suggested the Blue Jays would concentrate exclusively on college and junior college players--even more so than they currently do. But now that the draft-and-follow process is no more, it will probably mean a decrease in draft picks signed.
Matt Eddy: And, yeah, no Pulaski this summer means no more first looks at players like Litsch and Snider.
Q: Jon from Boston asks:
How about Chris Emanuele? His number (other than power) were not far off from Snider's. I know he's older but what's your assessment on him?
A:
Matt Eddy: He's an interesting player. A native Canadian, Emanuele can really hit, run and track the ball down in center field. He doesn't have much power or throwing arm, but by season's end he had supplanted the regular at Auburn and played down the stretch as the Doubledays made the playoffs. He has a reserve outfielder profile.
Q: Boris from Phoenix asks:
Can Ryan Patterson be a bettee hitter for the Jays than Eric Hinske was?
A:
Matt Eddy: I think so. He's more gifted as a defender and hits for enough power to hold down a corner outfield spot.
Q: Greg from Toronto asks:
The Yankees and Red Sox have increasingly disregarded MLB's "recommended" draft bonuses. Do you think that the Blue Jays and other clubs will follow suit?
A:
Matt Eddy: In the case of the Blue Jays, if recent history is any indication: No. The Blue Jays have shown a tendency to balance ceiling with signability in making their early picks.
Q: Rally Monkey from Anaheim asks:
Was Sergio Santos even in consideration for the top 10? What do you see as his ceiling after two lackluster seasons in Triple-A?
A:
Matt Eddy: He was, initially. But both his offense and defense seemed to take a step back in 2006, though the deterioration of the latter may be partially attributable to the rough turf at Syracuse. Santos has the raw tools, but only his plus throwing arm shows up in games, and he might be better suited in a reserve infielder role at this point if his bat comes around.
Q: Browning Nagle from Louisville, KY asks:
These chats are great! Do the Blue Jays have any vision of Rosario in the rotation anymore? It seems to me like he could be deadly in a set up role down the line (2006 notwithstanding). What are your thoughts on how effective he can be? A League-Rosario-Ryan bullpen sounds pretty nice.
A:
Matt Eddy: Rosario's immediate future is almost definitely in the bullpen. He just hasn't shown the consistent breaking ball to start. Because he's out of options, Rosario's career should begin in earnest next April.
Q: Warren from Lewisburg, PA asks:
Love these chats, even if my questions are never answered. Can you explain the big jump in Adam Lind's BB rate when he went to AAA? I was skeptical about him before that. More generally, what exactly is the Blue Jays' organizational philosophy about batter's walks? On one hand they seem like more of a Moneyball team than Oakland, but on the other hand they have a lot of guys both in the majors and the minors who don't draw walks.
A:
Matt Eddy: It wasn't so much a lack of walks last year for Lind as it was a higher-than-ideal strikeout rate at New Hampshire. When promoted to Syracuse, Lind really seemed to hike his contact rate. It could have been a fluke, or it could have been the quality of pitching was actually lower at Triple-A because most pitchers with raw stuff had already been called to the big leagues.
Matt Eddy: As an organization the Blue Jays stress command of the strike zone, both for hitters and pitchers.
Q: Tim from Dunedin asks:
Where was Yohermyn Chavez on the list? And who would be the Jays best 5 tool prospect if they have any?
A:
Matt Eddy: Chavez just missed cracking the top 20. As to the best five-tooler, nobody fits the profile exactly, but CF Yuber Rodriguez, despite a brutal 2006, probably comes closest.
Q: Big Walt from Templeton asks:
On your projected 2010 lineup, Adam Lind is pencilled in as the DH. Does that say more about Travis Snider's upside, or Lind's defensive short-comings?
A:
Matt Eddy: Snider's upside.
Q: Kurt from Westboro, MA asks:
Davis Romero didn't crack the top ten, yet has been effective at every level he's played at. Will he be limited to a back of the bullpen spot or can he play a more prominent role on a playoff contender?
A:
Matt Eddy: LHP Davis Romero will likely break in as a left-on-left reliever, but many in the organization believe he has enough fastball and a good enough changeup to get occasional righthanded batters.
Q: Kurt from Westboro, MA asks:
Of the three late round pitchers (Lirette, Ginley, Godfrey) given 6 figure bonuses who do you like the best?
A:
Matt Eddy: All three made the top 30, with Godfrey ranking ahead of Ginley and Lirette because he has the most present fastball and the best breaking pitch of the three.
Q: Frank Poncherello from Los Angeles, CA asks:
Molson Canadian or LaBatt Blue?
A:
Matt Eddy: No real preference, but I'll go with Molson.
Q: Chip from New York asks:
What happened to John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold the two top prospects they got in the Felipe Lopez trade a few years back?
A:
Matt Eddy: Griffin was injured and ineffective in Triple-A, while Arnold retired during the 2006 season.
Q: David from Toronto asks:
How do you think the Jays system stacks up? Top half of the league?
A:
Matt Eddy: The Blue Jays will rank in the bottom half, probably the bottom third. While they lost four pitchers ranked in the top 11 last year--McGowan, League, Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum--they saw improvements from Lind and Patterson and added Snider. The end result will probably be a similar ranking, and they ranked 25 last year.
Q: Rick from College Station asks:
After a poor season, what is the upside projection for David Purcey? Do you really belief he will emerge in the bullpen?
A:
Matt Eddy: The ultimate upside for Purcey is still No. 2 starter, but after stalling in 2006, he'll need a big 2007 to get back to that level. He projects as a back-end starter or middle reliever at this point. Shifting to the bullpen might benefit him in that he's durable enough to work several games in a row and wouldn't have to worry about pacing himself or setting batters up.
Q: Kurt from Westboro, MA asks:
Ryan Klosterman split time between 2B & SS. What's your opinion of his glove? Does he have the ability to be a decent starting MI or is he more of a utility player?
A:
Matt Eddy: Klosterman probably will not be an everyday shortstop, but likely will have a career as a backup. He ranked in the top 15. I like to think of him as Chris Woodward with speed.
Q: Joe from Good Spirit Lake, SK asks:
Which direction do you see the Jays going in this years draft? Are there any names that you think could go to the Jays in the !st round? Will they get additional picks if any of there free agents sign elsewhere?
A:
Matt Eddy: Couldn't tell you who they like for the 2007 draft because so much changes based on how the amateurs perform in their draft years. Keep reading BA, though, for top college and high school prospects lists.
Matt Eddy: The Jays have three Type A free agents--Frank Catalanotto, Justin Speier and Bengie Molina--and two Type Bs--Ted Lilly and Gregg Zaun. So Toronto's compensation haul could be substantial if those free agents are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere.
Q: JohnnyS99 from Toronto, Ontario asks:
Did Ty Taubenhiem have any consideration for the Top 10? Is he still considred a prospect?
A:
Matt Eddy: RHP Ty Taubenheim made the top 30 and projects as a back-end starter.
Moderator: I'm taking a few more questions today, so get them in if you've got them.
Q: Morellyn from Fort Worth, TX asks:
What is the feeling regarding former #1 prospect Dustin McGowan's future with the organization? #1 Starter, serviceable #4 guy, closer, middle reliever, bust?
A:
Matt Eddy: It's tough to give up on someone with McGowan's arm strength. He's shown flashes of dominance, but hasn't put together a consistent full season since 2003. His path of least resistance to a big league role is probably in the bullpen, but I'd expect him to get a chance to start down the road.
Q: FISHERCAT! from New Hampshire asks:
What type of season do you see out of Brandon Magee pitching in his native Midwest in 2007? What stuck out about Magee to Lalonde and co.?
A:
Matt Eddy: If all goes well next spring, Magee will likely jump the Midwest League and begin in the Florida State League. The Blue Jays were drawn to his power sinker with excellent plane and plus slider. Being 6-foot-5 probably didn't hurt, either.
Q: Tony from Durham, NC asks:
Hello, thanks for chatting. How do Chen and Davis Romero fit into the picture? Fringe 5th starter types, or is there more upside here?
A:
Matt Eddy: I addressed Davis Romero earlier, and I can see LHP Chi-Hung Cheng pitching out of the bullpen today because of his exceptional curveball. He had minor labrum surgery after the season, but is expected back at 100 percent in spring training.
Q: Greg from Toronto asks:
So who are some of the sleeper pitching prospects in the Jays' system?
A:
Matt Eddy: Godfrey and Ginley are the obvious candidates. Australian RHP Shane Benson showed good command of average stuff. RHP Orlando Trias has a good sinker. LHP Eric Fowler has three legit pitches and made strides with his fastball command. His curve is his best offering. RHP Paul Phillips could move quickly if he shows more command of his potent fastball-slider mix. And the Blue Jays apparently liked a lot about RHP Jean Machi, who signed with Toronto as a minor league free agent and was added to
the 40-man.
Q: Mick from Chicago asks:
If Russ Adams were not a first round pick I think the Jays would've given up on him. Do you see him getting a shot at the starting 2nd base job or will they sign somebody like Adam Kennedy?
A:
Matt Eddy: That's one possibility. Another is signing a shortstop and shifting Aaron Hill to second base permanently.
Q: Greg from Toronto asks:
Matt, given that next year's draft strength is supposed to be high schoolers, can you envision Riccardi taking another high school player in the 1st round if he is polished like Snider?
A:
Matt Eddy: This is just one variation on a very popular question. If the high school player controls the strike zone and projects to add power, then you might see another Snider-like pick. But unless the Blue Jays add a Gulf Coast League affiliate, such a player would have to be ready for the New York-Penn League.
Q: Ryan Patterson from Somewhere in AZ asks:
Thanks for all the love, Matt. I appreciate your support and will strive to exceed those lofty expectations! It is very wise of you to recognize my superiority to Curtis Thigpen. Keep up the great work!
A:
Matt Eddy: This was too funny not to post.
Q: Greg from Toronto asks:
Is there anyone with a better name than Balbino (maybe Chip Cannon)? Anyway what are your impressions of him and what is his ceiling?
A:
Matt Eddy: If so, we haven't heard of him. Fuenmayor has a solid base of tools and seems to have solid aptitude, but he's only played in instructional league.
Q: Gerry from Toronto asks:
I know I have to buy the book, and I will, but who was #30?
A:
Matt Eddy: Barring acquisition of another prospect or prospects, the No. 30 player will be C Brian Jeroloman.
Q: Gerry from Toronto asks:
Wondering if Billy Carnline, Tracey Thorpe and Eric Fowler made the Top 30? Who was highest ranked of those three?
A:
Matt Eddy: Fowler ranked just outside the top 10.
Q: Gerry from Toronto asks:
Sleeper question. Whose ranking has the chance to improve the most in 2007?
A:
Matt Eddy: Watch out for Godfrey and Ginley, you may have heard. Other than those two, how about Kyle Yates, if he doesn't exceed 50 big league innings in 2007?
Moderator: Thanks for the great questions. It was better the second time around.
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