[News] Should JP Stay?...Or Should He Go?

看板Blue_Jays作者abc12812 (abc12812)時間17年前 (2008/05/17 16:52)推噓4(4推 0噓 3→)

留言7則, 5人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/6cm2n7 Friday, 16 May 2008 By Rob McQuown J.P. Ricciardi cut his teeth working with mastermind Billy Beane in Oakland. 2008 will be his 7th full season at the helm of the Blue Jays. According to Cot's Contracts blog (mlbcontracts.blogspot.com), Rogers Communications bought the team for $120mil in 2000, and the team payroll went from $46 MM in 2000 to almost $77 MM in 2001. It's not clear how much money Ricciardi has had to work with, as he's fielded 3 teams with payrolls under $52 MM in his tenure, yet has a payroll of $98 MM in 2008. How's he done? Pre-J.P. (1998-2001): Team Winning Percentage: .517 (83.8 wins/season) J.P. Era (2002-2007): Team Winning Percentage: .495 (80.2 wins/season) The Jays have never had a winning percentage above .537 (87 wins) under Ricciardi's watch. And they've suffered through a .416 season (67 wins). For those of us south of the border, it's probably easy to misunderstand just how large Toronto is. It's a city of over 2.5 million, with a metro area of well over 5 million (South-central Ontario has is a region known as the “Golden Horseshoe”, which has 8.1 million residents). So, one could assert that the Blue Jays have the third-largest fan base in MLB, as the larger US metro areas all have multiple teams, and only New York has the population to out-”fan” the Jays. So, with that much fan support, the fans are certainly entitled to expect a team which is consistently over .500. In his defense, Ricciardi has overseen some things being done amazingly well by the Blue Jays. Namely: pitching and defense! Their team runs allowed totals have consistently been better-than average (as high as 2nd-best in the AL in 2007), despite a park which accentuates run scoring. They've excelled in many pitching areas: 1. Identifying high-impact free agents to fill their needs. Much was made of the contracts given to Burnett and Ryan, but those two have been key to their staff being so good recently. 2. Repeatedly showing an ability to “salvage” journeyman pitchers. Scott Downs? Brian Tallet? Accardo hadn't quite gotten to “journeyman”, but any pitcher which can be had for Vinnie Chulk plus a guy that's been placed on waivers (Shea Hillenbrand) isn't exactly being groomed to be a key piece of the puzzle. 3. They've gotten better seasons out of their borderline pitching prospects than most anyone expected. Consider the seasons they've gotten - and appear to continue getting – from guys like Gustavo Chacin, Jesse Litsch , Shawn Marcum. 4. Perhaps most-importantly, their high-ceiling pitchers who went through down periods haven't washed out as they do in so many organizations. McGowan had an xFIP of 3.97 in 2007, good for 10th-best in the AL, and is at 4.13 this year, showing it wasn't a fluke. This is from a pitcher who was injured an ineffective much of the time in the minors. Power lefty David Purcey, who was much-balleyhooed upon being drafted in 2004, seems to have recovered from his injuries and has started to find the strike zone. His AAA stats this year are exactly the sort teams want to see (29 hits, 16 walks, 3 HR, 52 K in 44.2 IP). Perhaps it's just good fortune, but the recovery rate of guys like McGowan and Purcey is historically very low across MLB. For defense, there are many ways to measure it, but the best publicly available statistic is the “+/-” metric from the system used for The Fielding Bible, with the stats available from Baseball Information Services annually. These show that the Blue Jays have made 193 extra plays over the past three seasons, compared to average. They led MLB in 2007, with +97, and were also good in 2005 and 2006. Settling on defensive whiz Aaron Hill as the full-time second baseman, and giving lots of innings to all-glove/no-hit John McDonald at shortstop gave them the best double-play combination in MLB for many of their games. With Wells, Rios, and Reed Johnson for some games, they were playing 3 outfielders with legitimate center-field range, and good throwing arms. The fact that Ricciardi has facilitated his organization to create a run-stifling environment and yet failed to win is exactly the reason he needs to be canned. Before he's removed, whatever he was doing well with regard to pitchers needs to be encapsulated and continued. But when it comes to designing an offense, Ricciardi and Gibbons may as well ask Dusty Baker for advice (hypothetically, something like, “Hey, Dude, put the short fast guy first, the bunter 2nd, and then put your big guys 3-6. The #7 and #8 guys don't matter anyway.”). There's an overwhelming predominance of righty starting pitchers in the AL East these days, and here are the Blue Jays batting lines against RHP in Ricciardi's tenure: 2002: .267/.332/.449 2003: .274/.344/.453 2004: .255/.323/.390 2005: .267/.331/.406 2006: .280/.342/.461 2007: .248/.315/.400 2004 is difficult to figure out, since Delgado was still there. And it appears at first that Ricciardi did attempt to reach a balanced lineup in 2005, post-Delgado, with the addition of Corey Koskie and the promotion of Russ Adams , but None of Hinske, Hudson, Zaun, Catalanotto, or those two were effective against RHP. 2006 was Overbay's career year, and that year alone seems to have made the trade for him a winner for J.P., as David Bush has all but played himself out of the rotation in Milwaukee. Now, on to the really bad Ricciardi moves: 1. 2006 was also a huge year for Vernon Wells. In addition to playing his usual 150+ games and hitting a great .303/.357/.542, he also was 2nd in +/- in MLB among center-fielders. Now, his proponents would suggest that's about normal for him, but he was 16th in 2006, and 10th in 2007. Also, his batting lines from 2005 and 2006 weren't anything special, so inking him to a deal which will pay him $21MM in 2010, $23MM in 2011, and $21MM/yr from 2012-2014 seems like a terrible contract with which to saddle Ricciardi's successor. Any potential future employer of Ricciardi needs to consider carefully his willingness to cause this sort of damage to the long-term financial future of an organization. If he was going to be around to be held accountable, it would merely be irresponsible. But, as it stands, it's frighteningly reminiscent of government spending policies. 2. Frank Thomas?! This author didn't anticipate the 3-6 starters being as solid as they were for the 2007 Blue Jays, and thought that money would be better spent on a #3 starter. However, regardless of how it was spent (or saved), there was clearly one thing it shouldn't have been spent on, and that was another righty bat. Add to that the clear concern that Thomas's knees could go out at any time, and his signing was just terrible. In the “better late than never” department, at least the team realized how bad the signing was and cut him loose before vesting another year on the contract. It's possible that Ricciardi thought the team had enough offense against RHP, having posted the fine .280/.342/.461 line above, but they were actually better against LHP, and – as noted – there is generally a shortage of lefty starters in the AL East. It's possible that Adam Lind may never hit as well as expected (or at all), but entering 2007, he certainly looked ready to storm the league . And the team really needed another lefty bat with Catalanotto departing. What would firing J.P. Ricciardi now accomplish? On a blog recently, one blogger proposed several trades the Blue Jays could make to “rebuild”, which mainly seemed as him trying to impress people with his knowledge of highly-rated prospects in other organizations. In general, it's almost always right to trade off middling talent for an elite prospect. And if a team's not going anywhere, it's that much more important to get something in trade value. But “punting” a season in mid-May when the pitching staff is both healthy and highly effective is ludicrous. Especially when the problems with the offense can be solved so easily. It should be noted that the Jays are actually hitting righties a bit better than lefties this season so far, but it's a tiny sample size, Rolen was out for much of it, the players involved can be expected to hit lefties better, and “better” still is deficient against RHP (.260/.340/.376). Here are two suggested moves for the Blue Jays: 1. Sign Barry Bonds. 2. Trade Vernon Wells and whatever prospects/money are required (within reason) for Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel. What would this accomplish? Well, right now, Shannon Stewart is “hitting” .227/.313/.289 (not a typo), and Lyle Overbay, while he's getting on base, is “hitting” just .271/.373/.361. Playing some combination of: Bonds, Dunn, Stairs, Lind, Wilkerson (who is a reverse-lefty hitter when he's hitting), Stewart, and Mench in the DH, 1b, LF, RF roles would provide a lot of lefty thunder to go with the right-handed bats of Rios, Rolen, and Hill. Freel gives the team a true leadoff hitter, allowing the shortstops to bat 9th. Freel wouldn't have a position, but would be given almost full-time AB's, ala Chone Figgins. Why would the trade with the Reds be possible? The Reds really need a true center fielder, and they have enough lefty bats. Corey Patterson would be relegated to 4th-OF capacity, allowing Dusty to rest Griffey more, and LF would be opened up for Jay Bruce, who almost certainly has worn out his welcome already in the minds of AAA pitchers. What of the future? Dunn's a free-agent-to-be, and Bonds can't have anything left after this year, right? Even assuming he's not incarcerated. Normally, plotting future years out is a fantastic idea. And the Jays have some nice prospects on the way, such as Purcey and Snider. “Worst case” is that Dunn gets a huge offer from some other team, and the Jays end up with 2 early draft picks in compensation. The team would then be out some money and/or prospects, and would have shed the awful Wells contract. As for Bonds, his situation is unlike the Frank Thomas situation, as it wouldn't be a multi-year commitment, so it's “easy come, easy go” with him. This is a team which can win this year, and banners fly forever the overall impact to the future is minimal when compared to that. It's not a great habit to get into, but if the team is close , go for it! The Blue Jays have the pitching and defense to compete with anyone, even without Wells' glove. They just need some more lefty oomph. So, Rogers Corp. - fire J.P., and hire someone with some in-season creativity. But do it fast, before the team finishes .500 again despite pitching which would make most teams “Blue” with envy. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3