[News] 2009 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

看板Blue_Jays作者abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)時間17年前 (2008/10/12 23:36)推噓4(4推 0噓 10→)

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http://tinyurl.com/3gw99w The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year, but the offense has a lot of work to do. None of the hitters are actually terrible per se, but there just haven't been a lot of pleasant surprises for the team. Like the Angels, the Jays are a team that really needs to take advantage of one of the best free agent crops in recent seasons and if they can't do that, they can't be in the hunt for the playoffs and they need to clean house and rebuild. This isn't the NL West and striving to win 86 games and complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox won't get the Jays into October. When the Orioles are being more decisive about organizational direction than your team is, you need to take a long, hard look at your short and long-term goals and I don't think Ricciardi's shown that he does anything but fly by the seat of his pants. Nothing illustrates the Jays problem than Matt Watson, who's always had the potential to be a good 4th outfielder, being 2nd on the below list. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Alexis Rios rf 28 .293 .347 .478 146 569 88 167 39 6 18 87 45 103 AVERAGE 1B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Matt Watson* lf 30 .271 .347 .458 55 192 31 52 13 1 7 31 21 29 AVERAGE LF -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE RF -------------------------------------------------------------------- Lyle Overbay* 1b 32 .270 .350 .417 141 496 65 134 32 1 13 66 60 94 Scott Rolen 3b 34 .259 .340 .416 102 363 54 94 25 1 10 49 38 61 Adam Lind* lf 25 .276 .323 .443 127 460 60 127 25 2 16 68 30 97 Vernon Wells cf 30 .274 .329 .444 130 514 72 141 29 2 18 76 41 71 AVERAGE CF -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE 3B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Aaron Hill 2b 27 .281 .334 .400 119 438 55 123 29 1 7 51 32 64 AVERGE 2B --------------------------------------------------------------------- Joe Inglett* 2b 31 .283 .338 .379 122 414 52 117 18 5 4 44 31 61 Jose Bautista 3b 28 .230 .319 .414 137 457 62 105 25 1 19 65 54 119 AVERAGE SS -------------------------------------------------------------------- Marco Scutaro ss 33 .261 .334 .364 105 352 50 92 16 1 6 39 37 53 AVERAGE C --------------------------------------------------------------------- Gregg Zaun# c 38 .233 .333 .357 87 258 30 60 14 0 6 31 38 42 Brad Wilkerson* rf 32 .230 .315 .393 82 270 36 62 15 1 9 37 33 84 Kevin Mench lf 31 .253 .300 .395 89 281 33 71 17 1 7 35 18 49 Travis Snider* rf 21 .251 .304 .411 137 526 66 132 27 0 19 74 39 151 Rod Barajas c 33 .242 .298 .401 85 277 34 67 17 0 9 37 18 52 Hector Luna 3b 27 .254 .305 .383 119 413 54 105 21 1 10 50 27 87 Chip Cannon* 1b 27 .223 .295 .369 104 363 36 81 17 0 12 46 34 127 J.P. Arencibia c 23 .247 .272 .414 99 396 40 98 21 0 15 56 12 83 Russ Adams* rf 28 .231 .297 .361 119 407 52 94 19 2 10 47 37 73 Brian Jeroloman* c 24 .226 .320 .313 101 336 27 76 14 0 5 31 46 64 Buck Coats* cf 27 .243 .291 .341 128 449 53 109 21 1 7 46 30 92 Curtis Thigpen c 26 .221 .281 .322 100 339 31 75 20 1 4 32 26 61 Pedro Lopez ss 25 .237 .281 .320 119 413 42 98 17 1 5 39 25 70 Wayne Lydon rf 28 .227 .289 .297 121 471 61 107 17 2 4 39 40 100 Danny Sandoval 2b 29 .233 .267 .300 108 390 33 91 14 0 4 33 16 54 * - Bats Left # = Switch-Hitter Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Rios Av Vg Watson* Av Av Av Overbay* Vg Rolen Ex Lind* Fr Fr Fr Wells Av Hill Vg Pr Inglett* Av Fr Pr Av Fr Av Bautista Pr Fr Fr Fr Scutaro Av Av Vg Av Av Zaun# Av Wilkerson* Av Av Pr Av Mench Fr Fr Fr Snider* Fr Fr Barajas Av Av Luna Av Av Vg Fr Cannon* Av Pr Arencibia Av Adams* Fr Fr Fr Av Jeroloman* Av Coats* Vg Fr Vg Thigpen Fr Av Pr Fr Lopez Vg Vg Lydon Vg Vg Vg Sandoval Av Av Av Player Spotlight - Alex Rios Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .314 .373 .525 152 592 105 186 45 7 22 101 53 95 134 Mean .293 .347 .478 146 569 88 167 39 6 18 87 45 103 115 Pessimistic (15%) .270 .319 .417 137 533 60 144 33 3 13 69 37 110 93 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Pete Fox, Al Cowens Player Spotlight - Adam Lind Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .297 .348 .518 145 525 80 156 35 6 23 91 39 103 125 Mean .276 .323 .443 127 460 60 127 25 2 16 68 30 97 100 Pessimistic (15%) .244 .284 .371 111 402 36 98 19 1 10 48 22 92 71 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Derrick May, Al Woods Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K B.J. Ryan* 33 2.68 4 1 46 0 47.0 36 14 3 18 51 Scott Downs* 33 2.93 4 1 67 0 67.2 59 22 4 26 57 Roy Halladay 32 3.40 16 9 32 32 225.0 223 85 18 42 155 Casey Janssen 27 3.54 4 2 58 0 61.0 63 24 5 14 36 Brian Tallet* 31 3.76 3 2 56 0 67.0 62 28 5 30 54 Jason Frasor 31 3.79 3 2 54 0 57.0 47 24 5 29 59 Brandon League 26 3.84 3 3 50 0 68.0 68 29 4 25 47 A.J. Burnett 32 3.95 12 10 28 28 180.0 172 79 20 66 170 Shaun Marcum 27 4.04 8 6 30 23 147.0 141 66 20 44 126 Jeremy Accardo 27 4.06 3 3 51 0 51.0 51 23 5 18 37 Jesse Litsch 24 4.09 13 11 31 30 187.0 197 85 21 44 98 AVERAGE RELIEVER -------- 4.09 ----------------------------------------------- Jesse Carlson* 28 4.11 5 5 65 0 70.0 69 32 8 23 53 Dustin McGowan 27 4.15 9 8 29 23 141.0 133 65 14 62 122 Shawn Camp 33 4.34 3 3 55 0 56.0 60 27 5 15 44 Brett Cecil* 22 4.40 4 4 23 23 90.0 89 44 10 36 65 Brian Wolfe 28 4.57 4 4 43 5 67.0 72 34 8 20 37 AVERAGE STARTER --------- 4.61 ----------------------------------------------- John Parrish* 31 4.97 3 3 28 7 67.0 70 37 8 37 52 Davis Romero* 26 5.02 7 9 31 20 120.0 136 67 20 38 83 Reid Santos* 26 5.07 3 5 45 4 87.0 93 49 15 33 58 Chris George* 29 5.20 4 7 33 13 97.0 108 56 11 45 61 Jean Machi 27 5.26 3 4 38 4 77.0 84 45 10 39 43 David Purcey* 27 5.27 6 10 23 23 128.0 139 75 19 54 92 Mike Gosling* 28 5.28 4 7 41 9 92.0 102 54 13 41 68 Jordan de Jong 30 5.29 3 5 46 0 68.0 72 40 10 36 49 Mike MacDonald 27 5.43 5 9 31 19 131.0 160 79 19 39 62 Fabio Castro* 24 5.45 4 8 32 14 104.0 110 63 16 53 73 Sean Stidfole 25 5.47 2 3 55 0 74.0 79 45 11 46 43 Bill Murphy* 28 5.51 4 8 42 16 116.0 128 71 17 60 88 Dirk Hayhurst 28 5.55 3 6 42 8 94.0 108 58 14 34 66 Ricky Romero* 24 5.90 4 8 22 22 119.0 138 78 17 67 66 Jonah Bayliss 28 6.13 3 6 57 0 69.0 79 47 14 33 48 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Jesse Litsch ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.44 17 9 34 33 212 207 81 21 38 120 129 Mean 4.09 13 11 31 30 187 197 85 21 44 98 108 Pessimistic (15%) 5.24 8 12 26 26 146 172 85 22 44 72 84 Top Near-Age Comps: Larry Christensen, Jeff Suppan Player Spotlight - A.J. Burnett ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.13 16 7 30 30 201 173 70 18 61 203 141 Mean 3.95 12 10 28 28 180 172 79 20 66 170 112 Pessimistic (15%) 4.91 8 10 23 23 141 150 77 19 63 124 90 Top Near-Age Comps: Camilo Pascual, Bill Singer -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3