[News] Toronto Blue Jays Top 5
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1. Travis Snider
The future is now for Snider and the Jays. The 14th overall pick in 2006
out of high school, Snider figures to spend much of 2009 in Toronto.
He’s a powerful hitter with good bat speed, the ability to hit to all
fields, and solid patience. The lefty batted .275/.358/.481 over three
minor league stops before a September callup last season, in which he
produced a .344 wOBA (80 PA) -- .361 wOBA overall. A potential
middle-of-the-order threat, Snider's primary weakness at the plate has
been strikeouts (27.7% last season). So it's unlikely that he'll be much
of an average hitter in the bigs. Though he's not a fast runner,
Snider’s arm is strong enough to play in right field. Still, he's a big
enough guy (5-foot-11, 245 pounds) that he may eventually find himself in
a designated hitter role. Snider may see some time in Triple-A to start
2009, but he figures to spend significant time in the majors.
2. Brett Cecil
Cecil’s repertoire includes a low-90s sinking fastball and a good
slider; his changeup and curve are still works in progress. He generates
plenty of groundballs (59% in 324 AA TBF) and strikeouts (26.7% career).
A closer at Maryland before he was selected 38th overall in 2007, Cecil
saw his walk rate climb from 7.1% in Double-A to 11.9% in Triple-A
(135 TBF) last season. Though his arm may not be ready to handle a
full-seasons starter's workload, he's being given a shot to win a
rotation spot with the Blue Jays this spring. Cecil has the talent to
become an above-average MLB starter. He'll likely log some experience in
Triple-A before making his big league debut.
3. David Cooper
After adjusting for ballpark and competition, Cooper was a better college
hitter than Pedro Alvarez last season. Granted Alvarez was returing from
an injury, but given how under-the-radar Cooper has been, we wanted to
compare the two. The 17th overall pick out of Cal last year, Cooper hit
the ground running for the Blue Jays, succeeding across three levels
(.390 wOBA in 306 PA; SS/A/A+). He has a compact lefthanded swing and
a good eye at the plate (9.8% career BB). OK, so why wasn't this guy a
Top 10 overall pick? For one, he's Billy Butler slow. Fittingly, his
defense at first base is questionable. Cooper could taste the majors as
soon as 2010. His lack of speed will limit the frequency in which he
reaches base, but he has enough power to one day turn into an average
big leaguer or better.
4. J.P. Arencibia
Arencibia is a mediocre contact hitter who doesn't walk but has good
power for a catcher. And he has a legitimate shot at sticking at catcher.
His below-average speed and strikeout rate (18.7% in '08) will likely
keep him from hitting for average in the big leagues. Pair that with
his 3.3% walk rate (A+/AA) and you're looking at a guy who's probably
going to be a better fantasy player than big leaguer -- that is unless
he turns into an average or better defensive catcher. Looking at hitting
performances from 2008, Arencibia's offensive ceiling may be somewhat
similar to what Kevin Kouzmannoff was last year -- not adjusting for park.
We don't see Arencibia as a good bet to become an average regular at this
point, but he was the 21st overall pick of the 2007 Draft so he clearly
has upside. Arencibia will almost certainly start 2009 in the minors.
He could see time in Toronto late in the season.
5. Brad Emaus
Emaus is a good contact hitter who could supply average power at second
base. A 2007 11th rounder, he likely earned a promotion to Double-A
with a .367 wOBA Florida State League performance last season. He further
fueled his prospect status with a .333/.447/.494 showing in Hawaii
(103 PA). The problem is, he may not have the range to stick at second
base. Emaus has drawn comparisons to Ty Wiggington for his defense and
swing. Look for Emaus to continue to prove that he could someday turn
into a big league starter.
6. Eric Eiland
Eilands has great potential but he's far from reaching his ceiling.
Taken in the 2nd round of the 2007 Draft, he posted a .299 wOBA last
season in Low-A. A speedster, Eiland has the potential to be an excellent
defender in center field, and he's a stolen base threat. For now, Eiland
will continue to work on turning his athleticism into true baseball
skills, but his ceiling remains substantial.
Honorables: Eric Eiland (CF), Kenny Wilson (CF), Justin Jackson (SS),
Kevin Ahrens (3B), and Brad Mills (LHP).
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