[閒聊] Fangraphs Top 15 Prospects
1. Anthony Gose, OF
BORN: Aug. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 2nd round, California HS (by Phillies)
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 11th
Gose narrowly edges d’Arnaud for top spot on the Jays list because of his
potential as a four-tool player (The hit tool is the only non-plus). The
outfielder has an exciting mix of speed, power, arm strength and overall
center-field defense that is hard to find. Previously more of a singles
hitter, the Jays player development staff had Gose focus more on driving the
ball at double-A in 2011 and his ISO rate rose form .122 with the Phillies
organization in ’10 to .161. Gose struggles to make consistent contact and
posted a strikeout rate of 26% in ’11. His willingness to take walks (10.6
BB%) helps to make up for the low batting average and allowed him to attempt
84 stolen bases (He was successful 69 times). I’ve been cautious with my
rankings of Gose in the past but I’m becoming a believer as he continues to
show improvements as he climbs the minor league ladder.
2. Travis d’Arnaud, C
BORN: Feb. 10, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 supplemental 1st round, California HS (by Phillies)
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 7th
The biggest knock on d’Arnaud is his inability to stay healthy – something
that could become even more of an issue as he ages and experiences the rigors
of catching at the big league level. The former Phillies prospect had a
breakout offensive season at double-A in 2011, posting a wRC+ of 150. He
showed the ability to hit for both average (.311) and power (.231 ISO). His
strikeout rates have risen above 20% since coming to the Jays system but it
comes as a result of a change in developmental philosophy. Defensively, d’
Arnaud is a well-rounded catcher with good leadership, as well as strong
receiving and blocking. He threw out 27% of base stealers and there is some
room for improvement in controlling the running game; his arm is strong so it
’s more a matter of consistent throwing mechanics. Despite that he has all
the ingredients necessary to become an all-star catcher at the big league
level. J.P. Arencibia and d’Arnaud could begin sharing the role as soon as
2013 with both also seeing time at DH in the hopes of limiting the wear and
tear on the latter player.
3. Daniel Norris, LHP
BORN: April 25, 1993
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 2nd round, Tennessee HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: NA
The consensus top left-handed prep pitcher in the draft, Norris was a steal
in the second round when he slid due to signability concerns. Many would
argue that he was more talented than the Jays’ first round pick Tyler Beede,
who ultimately chose to play college ball rather than sign a pro contract.
Norris did not pitch in the regular season after signing late but he did
attend the fall Instructional League. Norris’ repertoire includes an 88-93
mph fastball, good curveball, and a changeup. He’ll enter pro ball looking
to gain more consistency with his pitching mechanics. The southpaw has
exception makeup and is mature for his age. His passion for the game is clear
to anyone who follows his exploits on Twitter. He’ll likely open 2012 in
extended spring training before heading to Vancouver or Bluefield in June.
4. Drew Hutchison, RHP
BORN: Aug. 22, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 15th round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 21st
The Tyler Beede situation was not the first time in recent years that the
organization failed to sign top picks. The club missed out on signing James
Paxton, Jake Eliopoulos and Jake Barrett with its second through fourth picks
of the 2009 draft. As painful as that was (Paxton is now a top prospect with
the Mariners and Barrett is a potential first or second round pick in the
2012 amateur draft) it allowed the club the ability to sign both outfielder
Jake Marisnick (also on this Top 15 list) and Hutchison. The right-hander had
a breakout season in ’11 and played at three levels, topping out in
double-A. Hutchison has above-average control and the command of his three
pitch mix (88-93 mph fastball, slider, changeup) took a big step forward last
year. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter and he could reach the Majors
late in ’12 after beginning the year back in double-A.
5. Justin Nicolino, LHP
BORN: Nov. 22, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 2nd round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 24th
Speaking of breakouts, Nicolino was a fairly quiet signing as a second round
draft pick and he entered 2011 with less fanfare than other prep draft picks
such as Aaron Sanchez, Griffin Murphy, and Noah Syndergaard. Nicolino
outperformed all of the them, although Syndergaard came in a close second.
The southpaw showed above-average command and control during his debut which
allowed him to succeed in both short-season and low-A ball. He features an
88-93 mph fastball and a potentially-plus changeup. He also has curveball.
Nicolino’s frame still has room for him to fill out so he could eventually
add some ticks to his fastball, especially given his clean delivery. Nicolino
will likely head back to the low-A Midwest League to begin 2012 but he could
reach high-A by the end of the season.
6. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
BORN: Aug. 29, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 27th
Syndergaard isn’t as polished as Nicolino but he muscled his way onto the
Top 15 list after showing eye-popping fastball velocities throughout 2011.
His heater sits in the mid-90s and even broke 100 mph on a number of
occasions (albeit on a notoriously juiced radar gun). Syndergaard’s
repertoire also includes a curveball and changeup – both of which show
potential. The Jays stole the former Texas high schooler with a supplemental
first round pick after he was a late bloomer who did not show premium
velocity until his senior year. The right-hander likes to have fun and make
fast friends with a lot of his fellow prospects in the organization.
When asked if the organization was surprised how quickly Syndergaard moved in
2011, a Jays official told me: “…Not surprised because of the combination
of fastball velocity and command. His fastball is a weapon. When I saw him…
he gave up one hit. (He) didn’t throw a fastball under 93 (mph)… Sat 95-96
getting and as high as 99, all the while showing the ability to command the
ball to both sides of the plate.”
7. Jake Marisnick, OF
BORN: March 30, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 3rd round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 12th
If not for the impressive pitching depth in the system, Marisnick would rank
much higher. The outfielder has the potential to have five average to plus
tools (hit, power, speed, arm, defense). Despite being young for the Midwest
League in ’11, the California native posted a wRC+ of 160 while hitting for
average (.320), power (.180 ISO) and showing good speed (37 steals in 45
tries). He also played an above-average center field and has good arm
strength which should allow him to slide to an outfield corner when both he
and Anthony Gose share the outfield in Toronto. The Lansing Lugnuts club
featured a prospect-laden outfield in ’11 with Marisnick flanked by Marcus
Knecht and Michael Crouse – both of whom would fit in the 16-22 range of the
list if it went that deep. The fourth outfielder on the squad, Markus
Brisker, should be considered a deep sleeper for ’12 and all four players
could reunit in high-A ball.
8. Deck McGuire, RHP
BORN: June 23, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (11th overall), Georgia Tech University
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 4th
The Jays first pick of the ’10 draft, McGuire doesn’t have the huge ceiling
that his pedigree might suggest but he’s a solid pitcher with the potential
to develop into an innings-eating third or fourth starter. His fastball is
average at 87-91 mph but he can reach back for a little more and touch 93-94
mph when needed. He also features three other pitches: slider, curveball and
changeup. McGuire currently features average control but he needs to do a
better job of commanding his fastball down in the zone to help avoid the long
ball – something that haunted him during his brief time in double-A. The
right-hander, who missed time with a back injury in 2011, should return to
double-A in ’12.
9. Adonys Cardona, RHP
BORN: Jan. 16, 1994
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 19th
Cardona was a big-ticket signing out of Venezuela in 2010, bringing home just
under $3 million. He did not disappoint in his pro debut in 2011 when he
skipped over the Dominican Summer League and headed to the Gulf Coast League.
Cardona, who recently turned 18, posted a 3.14 FIP (4.55 ERA) in 31.2 innings
missed a lot of bats (9.95 K/9). He also showed average control. Although he’
s still quite raw and is more thrower than pitcher, Cardona possesses the
ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter if he can continue to make strides with the
development of both his curveball and his changeup. The biggest knock on
Cardona is his lack of premium size but he does a nice job of getting a
downward angle on his pitches, which has allowed him to produce above-average
ground-ball rates. He should move up to Vancouver or Bluefield in 2012 after
beginning the year in extended spring training and the pitching depth in the
system will allow the organization to be patient with this valuable
commodity.
10. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
BORN: July 1, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 30 RANKING: 9th
Sanchez has the stuff to fit in near the top of this list but his lack of
fastball command and overall control issues have held him back. The
right-hander has an excellent pitcher’s frame and his easy fastball velocity
sits in the 89-94 mph range. He also displays a good curveball and a
developing changeup. The organization has worked to make some tweaks to his
delivery in the hopes of seeing more consistency from him. If he cannot
improve the changeup enough and he continues to struggle with his control,
Sanchez could still develop into a high-leverage reliever. After seeing time
in both rookie and short-season ball during the regular season, the
right-hander was given a late promotion to low-A ball and appeared in the
playoffs with mixed results. He should return there in ’12.
The Next Five
11. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS: A plus defender, Hechavarria will have value to a
big league team simply from his glove work. His ability to show consistent
results with his bat, however, will determine the type of playing time that
he receives. The Cuban infielder has struggled in each of his first two pro
seasons before excelling after a promotion; it will be interesting to see if
the trend is a result of smaller sample sizes after the promotion or a result
of him being bored with his level of competition (which wouldn’t necessarily
speak well of his makeup). Hechavarria will return to triple-A to begin 2012
and await an opening at shortstop or possibly even second base.
12. A.J. Jimenez, C: Toronto has a lot of depth at the catching position with
d’Arnaud leading the charge, followed by Jimenez, Carlos Perez and Santiago
Nessy. The Puerto Rican is a plus defender who has seen his bat take a big
step forward over the past two seasons. Jimenez has shown the ability to hit
for average but he possesses little power. He has above-average speed and
athleticism for a catcher. He’ll move up to double-A in 2012 and could end
up as a valuable trade chip.
13. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP: Wojciechowski had a fairly ugly season
considering how high expectations were when April began. He started out well
but things fell apart when the organization attempted to change his delivery.
After two months of struggles, Wojciechowski was allowed to revert to his
previous mechanics and his numbers instantly improved. Because he doesn’t
have the most fluid delivery, the right-hander may be headed for a
high-leverage relief job at the MLB level but he’ll be given every
opportunity to stick in the starting rotation.
14. Jacob Anderson, OF: Anderson possesses plus raw power and opened some
eyes with a strong nine-game debut in 2011. There are questions about his
ability to hit for average until he cleans up his approach at the plate and
improves against breaking balls. Even so, he earns strong marks for his
repeatable, level swing and shows good bat speed. He is considered a solid
defender in the outfield but he spent his senior year of high school playing
mostly first base. Anderson will spend time in extended spring training in
2012 before heading to either Bluefield or Vancouver in June.
15. Chris Hawkins, OF: I considered five or six different players for this
slot, finally settling on Hawkins… but it my struggles speak to the depth in
the system. Hawkins has played all over the diamond since his amateur days –
from shortstop to third base to the outfield, where he currently resides.
The Georgia native saw his offensive game take off in ’11 during a stint in
advanced Rookie ball. He posted a wRC+ of 133 and hit for both average (.318)
and gap power (.174 ISO). He also possesses good speed for his age, which
helps him both on the base paths and in the outfield where he projects to
develop into an above-average fielder with a strong arm.
SLEEPER ALERT: Dalton Pompey, OF: A raw, switch-hitting Canadian outfielder,
Pompey has showed flashes of becoming a solid prospect. Signed at the age of
17 in 2010, he is still maturing both on and off the field. Pompey is
learning to drive the ball more consistent and should develop at least
average power. He went 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts in Rookie ball
before moving up to the advanced Rookie league where he nabbed another four
bags in five tries. He should move up to Vancouver in 2012 after spending
time in extended spring training.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/
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