2009 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

看板Braves作者abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)時間17年前 (2008/10/18 18:18)推噓1(1推 0噓 1→)

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http://tinyurl.com/6z9bgp Not exactly the year the Braves had in mind. Competitive in the division until the end of May, the Braves went 45-68 after being only a game out of first in the NL East on May 24. With Glavine being ineffective and out with elbow problems, General Zod being essentially done after April, and James being unable to hit the broadside of Jim Bowden's sense of self-satisfaction with any pitch, there just wasn't enough pitching depth to compete. Even Tim Hudson, normally a quite durable pitcher, went on the shelf and didn't make it too far in the 2nd half. The Braves have an offense that can compete, though it's a bit fragile and a little shallow in the outfield. The rotation will continue to be a problem, with the careers of Glavine and Smoltz both very much in the air and Hudson out for most of 2009 from his Tommy John surgery. Jair Jurrjens really came through for the team this year but the top of the rotation will remain quite thin. Either Parr or Hanson could surprise and be contributors, but I don't know if it'll be 2009 and I'm fairly sure it wouldn't be enough to replace what the Braves didn't get from Smoltz and Hudson in 2008. Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Chipper Jones# 3b 37 .339 .435 .546 119 434 80 147 28 1 20 83 75 58 Brian McCann* c 25 .294 .359 .517 148 528 65 155 44 1 24 94 52 71 AVERAGE 1B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Kelly Johnson* 2b 27 .281 .362 .456 124 445 72 125 27 6 13 65 55 96 Casey Kotchman* 1b 26 .283 .352 .445 127 434 56 123 27 2 13 63 42 41 AVERAGE LF -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE RF -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE 3B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Greg Norton# lf 36 .268 .360 .409 85 198 26 53 10 0 6 27 28 45 Martin Prado 2b 25 .301 .352 .409 123 399 57 120 25 3 4 46 32 48 AVERAGE CF -------------------------------------------------------------------- Matt Diaz lf 31 .301 .335 .439 87 239 27 72 10 1 7 33 9 47 Yunel Escobar ss 26 .283 .356 .395 133 484 65 137 26 2 8 57 51 71 AVERAGE 2B -------------------------------------------------------------------- Omar Infante 3b 27 .284 .330 .397 118 363 49 103 23 3 4 41 24 59 AVERAGE SS -------------------------------------------------------------------- AVERAGE C --------------------------------------------------------------------- Barbaro Canizares 1b 29 .274 .323 .406 87 325 33 89 16 0 9 42 23 46 Brandon Jones* lf 25 .255 .316 .420 138 510 65 130 29 2 17 72 45 108 Jeff Francoeur rf 25 .263 .315 .399 156 609 75 160 34 2 15 78 40 117 Joe Borchard# rf 30 .239 .322 .394 86 226 29 54 9 1 8 32 26 74 Ruben Gotay# 2b 26 .257 .323 .380 121 292 31 75 16 1 6 34 27 65 Scott Thorman* 1b 27 .243 .282 .437 120 387 40 94 22 1 17 60 21 79 Gregor Blanco* cf 25 .258 .351 .328 140 466 64 120 16 4 3 43 64 94 Jordan Schafer* cf 22 .244 .300 .415 113 455 55 111 26 2 16 64 35 97 Wes Timmons 3b 29 .235 .326 .335 101 319 38 75 17 0 5 32 34 29 Tyler Flowers c 23 .235 .308 .382 115 434 48 102 22 0 14 57 44 86 Josh Anderson* cf 25 .267 .310 .337 145 573 73 153 22 3 4 54 30 78 Corky Miller c 33 .211 .298 .361 59 166 13 35 7 0 6 22 16 32 Jason Heyward* if 19 .240 .291 .361 128 499 70 120 22 1 12 59 36 77 Diory Hernandez 2b 25 .265 .301 .369 138 529 51 140 24 2 9 59 22 74 Brent Lillibridge ss 25 .230 .284 .361 129 488 62 112 22 3 12 57 32 106 Brandon Hicks ss 23 .204 .276 .369 86 328 42 67 16 1 12 44 29 88 Cody Johnson* lf 20 .211 .254 .406 123 470 36 99 20 0 24 72 29 142 Jason Phillips c 32 .236 .288 .340 69 212 18 50 10 0 4 23 14 29 Gorkys Hernandez cf 21 .236 .287 .333 110 454 62 107 19 2 7 45 30 74 Carl Loadenthal* lf 27 .248 .308 .300 107 367 44 91 11 1 2 31 30 67 Clint Sammons c 26 .218 .272 .305 102 344 27 75 15 0 5 33 23 67 Ray Serrano c 28 .228 .250 .333 40 123 13 28 7 0 2 13 3 19 Enrique Cruz 3b 27 .207 .255 .293 89 300 21 62 14 0 4 27 18 65 Derrick Arnold# 2b 25 .205 .233 .265 99 317 24 65 11 1 2 24 11 61 * - Bats Left # = Switch-Hitter Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf Jones# Av McCann* Av Johnson* Fr Kotchman* Vg Norton# Av Fr Pr Prado Av Av Av Fr Av Diaz Vg Av Escobar Av Infante Vg Vg Av Av Av Canizares Fr Jones* Vg Vg Francoeur Av Super Joe# Av Av Gotay# Pr Fr Pr Thorman* Vg Pr Av Av Blanco* Vg Av Vg Schafer* Av Av Av Timmons Av Fr Av Flowers Fr Av Anderson* Av Vg Fr Vg Miller Av Fr Heyward* Vg Av Vg Hernandez Av Vg Av Lillibridge Av Av Av Hicks Av Av Johnson* Fr Phillips Fr Pr Hernandez Vg Vg Vg Loadenthal* Fr Fr Fr Sammons Av Serrano Vg Cruz Fr Fr Pr Fr Av Arnold# Fr Av Fr Av Av Player Spotlight - Casey Kotchman Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .303 .377 .501 143 489 72 149 37 3 18 82 53 41 129 Mean .283 .352 .445 127 434 56 123 27 2 13 63 42 41 109 Pessimistic (15%) .257 .318 .384 115 393 36 101 21 1 9 47 32 42 84 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ed Kranepool, Jim Spencer Player Spotlight - Kelly Johnson Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .314 .401 .529 135 484 93 152 37 8 17 84 69 93 143 Mean .281 .362 .456 124 445 72 125 27 6 13 65 55 96 114 Pessimistic (15%) .244 .329 .377 114 409 45 100 22 4 8 48 44 100 83 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tony Phillips, George Grantham Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Rafael Soriano 29 3.13 2 1 45 0 46.0 37 16 6 14 49 Mike Gonzalez* 31 3.32 3 1 38 0 38.0 32 14 4 17 43 John Smoltz 42 3.63 8 5 20 19 119.0 117 48 12 28 110 Will Ohman* 31 3.76 3 2 75 0 55.0 50 23 4 25 51 Tim Hudson 33 3.77 12 8 27 27 172.0 171 72 14 49 104 Jair Jurrjens 23 3.80 12 9 30 30 180.0 179 76 13 58 120 Peter Moylan 30 3.88 3 2 43 0 51.0 48 22 4 24 40 AVERAGE RELIEVER -------------------------------------------------------------- Buddy Carlyle 31 4.06 2 2 26 4 51.0 49 23 6 18 46 Phil Stockman 29 4.11 1 1 26 0 35.0 32 16 3 22 32 Jeff Bennett 29 4.30 4 4 60 6 90.0 92 43 8 40 58 Royce Ring* 28 4.31 3 3 59 0 48.0 46 23 3 27 40 Julian Tavarez 36 4.37 3 3 57 2 70.0 75 34 6 30 57 Chris Resop 26 4.41 2 2 37 1 51.0 50 25 5 27 42 Jorge Julio 30 4.43 3 3 65 0 67.0 61 33 8 39 73 Jorge Campillo 30 4.50 5 6 25 17 116.0 127 58 14 31 70 AVERAGE STARTER --------------------------------------------------------------- Manny Acosta 28 4.70 5 5 56 0 67.0 65 35 7 43 48 Kris Medlen 23 4.75 5 6 39 11 91.0 101 48 12 25 58 Blaine Boyer 27 4.77 4 5 58 6 83.0 86 44 7 41 64 Brad Nelson 27 4.84 3 4 40 5 80.0 91 43 8 26 36 Elmer Dessens 38 4.85 2 2 18 1 26.0 28 14 3 8 19 Jo-Jo Reyes* 24 4.90 7 8 26 25 134.0 141 73 16 61 101 Vladimir Nunez 34 4.92 4 5 48 4 86.0 89 47 10 49 69 Tom Glavine* 43 4.93 6 7 22 22 126.0 142 69 16 51 67 Jeff Ridgway* 28 4.98 3 3 56 0 65.0 66 36 9 33 55 Mike Hampton* 36 5.04 2 2 10 10 50.0 58 28 6 19 22 Brian Lawrence 33 5.06 5 8 17 16 96.0 119 54 10 23 45 Michael Nix 26 5.16 4 6 48 0 68.0 72 39 7 41 47 James Parr 23 5.22 8 12 31 29 157.0 177 91 21 59 86 Chuck James* 27 5.24 6 10 25 23 122.0 133 71 22 46 85 Charlie Morton 25 5.28 6 9 33 17 116.0 125 68 12 63 69 Thomas Hanson 22 5.43 6 10 27 27 131.0 136 79 23 60 90 Jonathon Rouwenhorst* 29 5.48 6 10 37 15 110.0 130 67 14 44 60 Zach Schreiber 27 5.83 2 4 46 0 54.0 57 35 9 36 42 Francisco Bueno* 28 5.87 3 6 20 16 95.0 116 62 17 33 56 Damian Moss* 32 6.25 3 7 23 12 72.0 83 50 12 49 47 Jairo Cuevas 25 6.44 3 9 17 16 81.0 94 58 14 57 45 Anthony Lerew 26 6.49 2 5 14 13 61.0 72 44 11 38 37 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Tim Hudson ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 2.95 16 6 29 29 189 168 62 12 45 126 146 Mean 3.77 12 8 27 27 172 171 72 14 49 104 115 Pessimistic (15%) 4.67 8 9 22 22 135 146 70 14 46 75 93 Top Near-Age Comps: Larry Jackson, Bob Forsch Player Spotlight - Jair Jurrjens ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.03 16 7 33 33 205 187 89 11 52 146 143 Mean 3.80 12 9 30 30 180 179 76 13 58 120 114 Pessimistic (15%) 4.56 9 9 26 26 148 159 75 13 61 94 95 Top Near-Age Comps: Greg Maddux, Larry Dierker Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported inthe offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3