[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Braves Preview
2009 Atlanta Braves Preview
After losing 90 games in 2008 and striking out with several high-profile
personnel pursuits early during the offseason, it was beginning to look like
the Braves would have to rely more heavily than they hoped on aging, familiar
faces and some young players whose careers are yet to be defined. But after the
January signings of free agent pitchers Derrek Lowe and Japanese star Kenshin
Kawakami, the Braves and manager Bobby Cox felt better about their chances of
ending a three-year playoff drought in 2009. It remains to be seen whether the
Braves have enough offensive firepower and whether their talented but
surgery-scarred bullpen can stay healthy enough to help the Braves climb from
fourth place back to the top of an NL East division they once ruled.
Rotation
The Braves signed Lowe, who’s averaged 15 wins and 208 innings over seven
seasons, and Kawakami, a former Japanese Central League MVP in January, only
days after John Smoltz decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox after 21 years
with Atlanta. The Lowe and Kawakami signings were a huge relief for the Braves,
who pulled out of protracted trade talks for San Diego’s Jake Peavy in
November and were outbid for A.J. Burnett. Lowe and Kawakami join Jair
Jurrjens, coming off a 13-win rookie season, and Javier Vazquez, acquired from
the White Sox in a December trade. Vazquez has worked 200 innings in eight of
nine seasons, something no Brave did in 2008. The fifth spot will be contested
by a handful of pitchers, including prospects Tommy Hanson and Charlie Morton
and possibly Tom Glavine, the future Hall of Famer who had elbow and shoulder
surgeries in August. As of late-January, Glavine hadn’t decided if he would
return and the Braves hadn’t offered a contract. Tim Hudson (elbow surgery) won
’t return before August. Other fifth-starter candidates include left-hander
Jo-Jo Reyes, who struggled mightily in his first full season, and Jorge
Campillo, who went 8-7 with a 3.91 ERA as a 29-year-old rookie.
Bullpen
The bullpen could be a major strength. Then again, the Braves thought the same
thing a year ago, before closer Rafael Soriano and setup man Peter Moylan went
on the DL with April elbow injuries. Moylan had Tommy John surgery, and Soriano
had three DL stints before August nerve-transposition surgery. Moylan could be
ready in April, but Soriano is an uncertainty. The Braves will count on closer
Mike Gonzalez, who returned from elbow surgery in June and converted 14-of-16
save opportunities. It’s a potentially formidable trio of power arms with
Soriano and Moylan setting up Gonzalez. Young righthanders Manny Acosta and
Blaine Boyer were effective before wearing down from the demands of
bigger-than-expected roles. Unless the Braves re-sign Will Ohman or acquire
another lefty, they might enter the season with Boone Logan as their only
experienced lefty in middle relief.
Middle infield
The Braves thought they had a deal with free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal,
whom they planned to move to second base to form a dynamic double-play duo with
Yunel Escobar. Instead, Furcal returned to the Dodgers. That left the Braves
with a combo of strong-armed shortstop Escobar and second baseman Kelly
Johnson, a former outfielder. Each has been effective in the leadoff role, and
they’ll be considered for that if the Braves aren’t comfortable with one of
their young center fielders leading off. Escobar is a high-average, high-OBP
type whose natural strength should produce more extra-base hits, and Johnson is
a streaky hitter who seemed to turn a corner when he got more aggressive. He
hit .398 with 15 extra-base hits and 19 RBIs in September.
Corners
The Braves could get 50 homers and 180 RBIs from Chipper Jones and first
baseman Casey Kotchman, provided Jones avoids extended DL stints and Kotchman
picks up where he left off. Jones won his first batting title, but after
averaging 32 homers, 107 RBIs and 157 games from 1996-2003, he’s averaged
under 26 homers, 87 RBIs and 124 games the past five seasons. He’s a sound
defensive third baseman, and the Braves struggle with him out of the lineup.
Kotchman is an outstanding defensive player who looked uncomfortable at the
plate initially after being traded to Atlanta in July. But he hit .321 with a
.404 OBP and 15 RBIs in his last 21 games with the Braves.
Outfield
As of late January, the only certainty was right fielder Jeff Francoeur, coming
off a season in which he hit .239 with a .294 on-base percentage. Braves
outfielders combined for a majors-worst 27 home runs in ’08, and Josh Anderson
’s three homers after the All-Star break led the unit. If the Braves don’t
add punch, then Anderson could compete for the center field job with Gregor
Blanco, who surpassed expectations as a rookie, and prospect Jordan Schafer.
Left fielder Matt Diaz is back after missing most of ’08 with a knee injury,
but he might be on the bench or in a platoon role if the Braves acquire a
power-hitting outfielder.
Catching
Brian McCann won his second Silver Slugger award and became the first Brave to
make the All-Star team in each of his first three full seasons. The mature
25-year-old began a diet and conditioning program immediately after the season
with the aim of staying healthy and improving his defense. After getting only
13 hits and nine RBIs from backup catchers Corky Miller and Clint Sammons in
2008, the Braves signed strong-armed Dave Ross, who hit 38 homers in 2006-07
for Cincinnati.
Bench
Omar Infante and Martin Prado are valuable utilitymen who had injuries early in
2008. Infante hit .347 with a .918 OPS in 101 at-bats as a third baseman. He
plays three infield positions and is a decent outfielder. Prado, who played
every infield position in 2008, hit .432 with 12 extra-base hits in August and
.320 for the season. He was particularly effective against righthanders (.349)
and on the road (.350). Greg Norton thrives as a pinch-hitter without requiring
much playing time to stay sharp — good considering his sub-standard defense.
Either Anderson or Blanco, could serve as a fourth outfielder.
Management
Frank Wren’s second winter as the Braves’ GM didn’t go as smoothly as the
first, though not for lack of trying. Wren and his top assistants have actively
searched every market for talent, including Asia. Things were certainly
different a year earlier, when, in Wren’s third week on the job in October
2007, he traded Edgar Renteria to Detroit for Jurrjens and center field
prospect Gorkys Hernandez. Cox wants another shot at the postseason before he
retires. Players say he’s as great a motivator and team handler as ever, but
the Braves just haven’t had the pitching depth recently that they had when
they were one of baseball’s biggest spenders.
Final analysis
No longer division favorites, the Braves have seen how the other half lives.
Since ending a run of 14 consecutive division titles, they have gone 235–251
over the past three seasons, while the Phillies have a 266-220 record and the
Mets are 274–212. The Braves can improve upon last year’s fourth-place finish
in the NL East, but they’ll need fewer pitching injuries and improved
production from a few players who regressed in 2008. They made no significant
offensive additions to a team that ranked 14th in the NL in homers in 2008 —
and that was with Mark Teixeira in the lineup until late July.
Statistician
90 >> Losses for the Braves in 2008, their first 90-loss season since 1990
and manager Bobby Cox’s first 90-loss season since 1979.
188.1 >> Innings by rookie Jair Jurrjens in 2008, making him the lone Brave
with at least 150 innings as a starter.
3-10 >> Record for the Braves in extra-inning games in 2008, the worst for any
of Bobby Cox’s team in 27 seasons as a major league manager.
14 >> Rank in the NL by the Braves in homers (130).
27 >> Homers for all Braves outfielders in 2008, the fewest for an NL team
since Houston outfielders hit 26 in the strike-shortened 1994 season.
0-9 >> Atlanta’s home record against Philadelphia in 2008. The Braves were
4–14 overall against the Phillies.
26 >> Saves for Braves in 44 opportunities in 2008, the fewest in the majors
in both categories.
3 >> Pinch-hit homers for Greg Norton, who led the majors.
Difference Maker
Braves officials hope 2008 was an aberration for Jeff Francoeur, who hit .239
with 11 homers, 71 RBIs and a .294 on-base percentage. Once regarded as the
heir apparent to Chipper Jones as franchise golden boy, Francoeur hit 29 homers
in 2006 and won a Gold Glove in 2007 while batting .293 with 19 homers and a
second 100-RBI season. But now he’ll need a bounce-back season to secure his
future with the Braves, who need him to improve strike-zone command, drive in
runs and stop trying to pull everything to left field.
Beyond the Boxscore
Healthy Chipper After hitting .364 to win his first batting title at age 36,
Chipper Jones incorporated aerobic conditioning into his offseason regimen in
hopes of staying in the lineup more in 2009. His .342 average since the
beginning of the 2006 season leads the majors among players with at least 1,200
at-bats, and his 1.027 OPS trails Albert Pujols (1.066). The problem is that
Jones played 372 games in that three-season span, while Pujols played 449 and
many other top hitters played at least 450.
Elite backstop Catcher Brian McCann lost about 20 pounds through an improved
offseason diet-and-conditioning program. His weight climbed to nearly 250 in
2008, and perhaps contributed to lingering leg injuries. McCann has made the NL
All-Star team in each of his three full seasons and established himself as one
of the game’s best hitting catchers. Since 2006, he’s hit .300 with an .873
OPS, 180 extra-base hits and 272 RBIs.
Stateside Rather than return to his native Australia in the offseason, reliever
Peter Moylan stayed in Atlanta to continue his recovery from May 8 Tommy John
elbow surgery. The Braves hope to have the right-handed sidearmer back in
April. Moylan was Atlanta’s top setup man and best overall reliever in 2007,
posting a 1.80 ERA in 80 appearances while allowing 65 hits in 90 innings. He
made only seven appearances in 2008 before surgery.
Short trip The Braves hope to benefit from proximity when their Triple-A team
moves this season to Gwinnett County (Ga.) in Atlanta’s north suburbs after 43
years in Richmond, Va. Having their highest-level affiliate 30-45 minutes
(depending upon traffic) up the interstate from Turner Field will make it
easier for the Braves to shuttle players between Triple-A and the majors. When
both teams are playing at home, Braves officials envision scenarios in which a
player could be summoned from Gwinnett to replace a player injured in a game
the night before or even a player hurt the same day during batting practice
before a night game.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The 40th overall selection in the June draft, Brett
DeVall signed late and only had time to get in 9.2 innings for the Gulf Coast
rookie-league team. He surrendered one run and four hits with seven strikeouts,
then pitched well in the instructional league. DeVall, drafted out of Niceville
(Fla.) High School, turned 19 in January, and the Braves will be careful not to
rush his development. He’s likely to begin the 2009 season at rookie league
Danville. He has an average fastball and improved changeup, but his breaking
ball needs work. Maturity, mound presence and overall demeanor could help him
eventually reach the majors.
2007 Top Pick — Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County (Ga.) High School
Big slugger with advanced plate discipline, strong arm, good range and
outstanding mental makeup. Could arrive as soon as 2011.
2006 Top Pick — Cody Johnson, OF, A. Crawford Mosley (Fla.) High School
Led organization with 26 homers in Single-A; must reduce strikeouts (177).
2005 Top Pick — Joey Devine, RHP, North Carolina State
Traded to Oakland as part of package for Mark Kotsay on Jan. 14, 2008.
2004 Top Pick — Eric Campbell, 3B, Gibson Southern (Ind.) High School
He hasn’t played above Single-A. This will be an important season in Double-A.
2003 Top Pick — Luis Atilano, RHP, San Juan (P.R.) Mistral High School
Traded to Washington for Daryle Ward on Aug. 31, 2006.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
RHP Tommy Hanson (22)
Shined in A and AA and dominated in the Arizona Fall League. Could compete for
rotation spot this spring.
CF Jordan Schafer (22)
Served 50-game suspension for HGH early in 2008, but torrid August helped
restore elite-prospect status.
CF Gorkys Hernandez (21)
A year younger than Schafer, a little less refined, a little faster. Hernandez
is a prototypical leadoff hitter.
LHP Cole Rohrbough (21)
Big lefty has three plus-pitches, including 92-94 mph fastball with movement
and a power curveball.
RHP Kris Medlen (23)
Undersized pitcher has three quality pitches and moxie. Could compete for a
spot as a starter, reliever or swing man in ’09.
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