Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects for 2011
By John Sickels
1) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade A: Second only to Hellickson and Chapman in my
view.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade A-: Great Triple-A performance at age 20 is
rare. You can make a case for a pure Grade A.
3) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade A-: Borderline B+. I think he can be a number two
starter. Right on the edge between those two grades for me.
4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B+: Can also be a number two guy if all goes
well.
5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B: Would also be a B+ if not for health
concerns, but that's enough for me to hold him back a notch.
6) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: You can make a B+ case if you don't mind
giving that high a grade to relievers. Future closer.
7) Matt Lipka, SS, Grade B: Lots of projection in this grade, but I like the
athleticism.
8) Carlos Perez, LHP, Grade B: Great power sinker, but small sample size and
some command issues mean I won't go higher than this without more data.
9) Brandon Beachy, RHP, Grade B-: Finished product, can be a number four
starter or a very good reliever.
10) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade B-: I've been a big Hoover supporter since he was
in junior college. I think he can be a durable inning-eater.
11) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Grade B-: Excellent defense and I think the bat
has a chance to improve.
12) Michael Dunn, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Should be a valuable
reliever, needs to lower the walks.
13) Todd Cunningham, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+: 2011 will tell us a lot;
can his power increase?
14) Edward Salcedo, SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Extremely difficult to grade
and rank. Grade A tools, Grade D skills, could be a superstar but also has a
high chance to be a bust given his hacktastic approach. You could put him as
high as number nine depending on what you emphasize as an analyst.
15) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade C+: Like Salcedo, there is high bust
potential here, especially offensively, but he's very young and has all the
tools, especially on defense.
16) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C+: Could be a very nice number four starter.
17) Steven Kent, LHP, Grade C+: Aggressive ranking, but Australian lefty
could break out huge in 2011.
18) Mychal Jones, SS, Grade C+: Not likely to hit for average, but does other
things well.
19) Benino Pruneda, RHP, Grade C+: Relief sleeper, good stuff, great K/IP
rate, only small size keeps him from being noticed.
20) Joe Leonard, 3B, Grade C+: I can't say I'm hugely impressed yet; defense
is rough, needs better strike zone judgment.
21) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Grade C+: Love the K/BB ratios.
22) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Love the power potential, but strikes out a
lot and health problems have slowed his development.
23) Paul Clemens, RHP, Grade C+: Numbers don't stand out on the surface, but
I think he could be a sleeper.
24) Dave Filak, RHP, Grade C+: Interesting small college guy, need to see at
higher levels.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Juan Abreu, RHP; Willie Cabrera, OF; Erik Cordier, RHP;
Dimaster Delgado, LHP; Brett DeVall, LHP; Cody Gearrin, RHP; Phil Gosselin,
2B; Cody Harrilchak, OF; Cody Johnson, OF; Willie Kempf, RHP; Chris Masters;
LHP; Tyler Pastornicky, INF; Cory Rasmus, RHP; Elmer Reyes, 2B; David Rohm,
OF-1B; Zeke Spruill, RHP.
Here you have the classic Atlanta Braves pitching depth, granted there will
be some injury attrition. Other than Freeman, I'm not that impressed with the
available hitting. Lipka, Simmons, and Jones should help cover middle infield
needs in the coming years, but the shortage of useable power remains an issue
and much rides on bats like Salcedo, Milligan, and Leonard living up to their
potential despite big issues with their approach.
***********************
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or
superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars,
if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in
some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will
develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the
majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something
positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who
are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few
Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end
up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond
directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to
develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much
better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader;
Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn
out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the
full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells
you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very
impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role
player.
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