[心得] 史詩般的球季，怎樣的結尾呢？

看板Braves作者turkeyma (...)時間7月前 (2023/10/02 21:20)推噓34(34推 0噓 54→)

留言88則, 22人參與討論串1/1

【What an Epic Season! How will it be ended up with?】 Preface 謹一此篇致敬這個史詩般的球季，但願我們今年季後賽也能如是一般順利，不留遺憾。會用英文寫是因為這樣寫真的快很多，而且用的形容詞比我那爛中文多得多，寫的匆忙雖稍有校正必然有許多疏漏，還請大家幫忙修正來讓這篇更完整喔！ The Braves’ 2023 season is so EPIC that our fans will never forget. The team leads the league almost in every offensive category, and overwhelmingly led the second best team in terms of Statcast numbers such as barrels, hardhit%, batted balls > 110+ EV, etc. by a very wide margin. It is a true blessing to witness this once in a life time event with our own eye balls. The Braves surpassed a number of records set in the juiced ball year 2019, for which some are deemed difficult to reach. The Braves’ offense already has been good in 2022. It ranked second in Homerun (243) and OPS (.760). However, the 2022 team was prone to strike out which finished the second highest strike outs (1498). That team was also the only team in Top 10 strike out list to advance to the playoff. The 2023 team is a completely different story. While the power delivery was even better (way better), the strike outs were dramatically reduced to the bottom six. A combination of the two fertilized this astonishing and unforgettable offense. In the following, all “major” records broken was listed, followed by charts and a detailed breakdown of most players participate in this feast. At the end, a quick glance on a potential roster of the NLDS is discussed. PART I - Records set: 1. Acuna is first player in the 40-70 club, 5th in the 40-40 club; his RBI 106 is the second highest ever for a leadoff hitter (107 RBI, Mookie Betts, 2023) 2. Team Homeruns total: 307, tied with the 2019 juiced-ball Twins for the most in MLB history. Second: Dodgers 246; Last: Guardians: 123. <NOTE> League Homerun total was 6776 in 2019 and 5868 in 2023. 3. First team ever with SLG > .500 (.501). 4. Ranked second in all-time team OPS (.844), only trailed by the 2019 juiced-ball plus cheating Astros (.848). 5. Ranked second in WRC+ (124.6), trailed by 1927 Yankees (125.1). 6. Acuna became the 3rd player with 200+ H, 140+ R, 100+ RBI, 50+ SB. (Ty Cobb 1911, Jennings 1895). 7. Acuna’s TB (545) ranked 12nd all-time behind Ruth (x5), Bonds x(2), Gehrig, Foxx, McGwire, Sosa. 8. Acuna became the fourth player with .335 with 40 HR, 215 H, 80 XBH, 1.000 OPS, 100 RBIs, 145 Runs, and “less than 90 K” (DiMaggio 1937, Klein 1930, Gehrig 1927). 9. Acuna hit an EV 121.2 HR (hardest in 2023, 3rd hardest HR all time, against Dodgers). 10. Braves featured 219 batted balls with EV > 110 mph; the second: Yankees with 106! 11. Braves featured average batted balls EV of 91.0 mph; second: Twins 89.4; Last: Guardians: 87.5. 12. Braves featured 46% Hard hit balls; Second: Yankees: 41.7%; Last: Guardians: 32.9% 13. Braves featured 513 barrels (11.9%); Second: Twins: 398 (10.3%); Last: Guardians: 226. 14. Finished with most games (144 games) with at least a homer (2019 Yankees, 139) 15. Three players with 40+ HRs. Fourth team to reach (1996, 1997 Rockies; 1973 Braves) 16. Five players with 33+ HRs, 97+ RBIs, new MLB record. Also, it was the second team with 5 players having 30+ HRs. 17. The first team with Four players with 33+ HRs, 100+ RBIs. 18. Finished with the outright MLB leader in R, H, SB, TB (Acuna), HR, RBI (Olson), W, K (Strider). No other team has led in more than 5 of those 8 categories. 19. Seven players with 20+ HRs, with fewest games to reach this mark. 20. The first team ever with 7 players having 20+ HRs and 20+ doubles. 21. Eight players with 16+ HRs, the fourth team ever. Also, Braves has ten players with 11+ HRs. 22. Most 47 homeruns in the first inning, new MLB record (over 2019 Reds) 23. Best homerun differential (+85) through July since 1906. 24. 146 Runs in the first inning, best of the 2023; a new franchise record in modern era. 25. Matt Olson 54 HR, 139 RBI, both are new franchise records 26. Olson has 40 HRs/100+RBIs in 113 G, the fastest Brave player ever; the 13rd MLB player in history. 27. Acuna 10 straight HRs w. 420+ ft, a Statcast era record. 28. Braves has 24 homeruns with 450+ feet, NEW MLB record. 29. Braves went 116 H, 82 R, 29 HR, 11 SB within a 10-game span, a new offensive record by any MLB team (COL- PHI – CIN series in June) 30. Having 61 Homeruns in June, NL/franchise record (3 rd best in MLB) 31. Having 54 Homeruns during a 20-game span in June/July, most in MLB ever (2019 Yankees: 52) 32. Having five 2-run homers in one game, tied MLB record (against Rangers) 33. Eight players in 2023 All-star game, second in MLB history (Yankees: 9). 34. First three consecutive comeback wins when trailing by 3 or more runs, new franchise record since 1900 (“THE” Mets series) 35. The second 8-3-5 Triple Play in MLB history (first: 1884); Frist Brave triple play since 2004. 36. First MLB team with 20+R, 5+ HR, 5+ 2B, 3+ SB in a game (against Mets). 37. Eleven homeruns in a home series, new franchise record. (Miami series) 38. Seven player of the week, new franchise record, with six different players (Acuna, Olson*2, Riley, Murphy, Harris II, Rosario) 39. Player of the Month: "Acuna*3"; Reliever of the Month: Iglesias 40. Acuna 73 SBs, new franchise record. 41. Strider first MLB league pitcher with 350+K in 40 starts 42. Strider fastest pitcher (61IP) to reach 100 K in a season in 130 years. 43. Strider fastest pitcher to reach 200 K in 123.1 IP, new MLB record. 44. Strider highest K with first career 50 starts (435 K), new MLB record. 45. Strider 281 K in a single season, new franchise record 46. Strider 9 consecutive games w. 9 or more Ks, new franchise record. 47. Strider is the second pitcher to offer 160+K and 80- hits before All-star break. 48. Strider’s K/9 =14.27 is all-time second best in the first half (deGrom 14.28, 2021). 49. Strider matches Dwight Gooden for most K in 45 starts (392K). 50. Strider has 4th career 10K game with 1 or 0 hits, most for a player under 25 (against Giants) 51. Morton is the 2nd 39-years or older pitcher with a 20+ K, 0 Run over a 2-game span (Roger Clemens) 52. Darius Vines is first visitor player to pitch 6+ IP with 2 or less runs in Coors field in debut. Part II – Miscellaneous records a. Murphy has 11 consecutive extra base hits, new franchise record b. W-L = 21-4 in June, tied with the single-month winning record of franchise; c. Acuna is the first player with 20 HR/35+ SB over 81 Games (half of the season) d. Acuna becomes the very first player with 20+HR/40+SB/50+RBI in MLB history before All-star break. e. Strider has 4 straight games with 10+K, new franchise record f. First consecutive games with every member in the lineup has a hit since 1996. (against Brewers) g. Most 1st inning Homeruns (32) before August, the MLB record. h. Seven back-to-back HR by Riley/Olson, new franchise record by a duo. i. Six-extra base hits in an inning, tied with the franchise record in past 50 years (against Angels) j. Olson has 11 straight games with an RBI, new franchise record. k. Acuna is the fastest Brave player with 100 Runs (in 111 Games) l. First sweep of Yankees ever; Frist series win at Dodger stadium since 2012. m. Braves has 100+ wins in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2002-03 There are still a few records that you want to forget… i. 16th starters in 2023, tied with the franchise record in 2016. ii. 9 straight loses to Jays in three series, tied franchise record Part III Game-by-game Win-lose Differentials https://imgur.com/a/96N1UbO https://imgur.com/a/lxyI5At Game-by-game Standings https://imgur.com/a/Mi8nU6K Honors and Records https://imgur.com/a/1dOhgcy https://imgur.com/a/6vpChOe Game notes https://imgur.com/a/kJFvrbK https://imgur.com/a/CxE7F9d Pre-season and In-season Moves https://imgur.com/a/FCi8qBC Part IV – breakdown of each player I) Position players Ronald Acuna Jr. fWAR 8.3 .337/.416/.596 41 HR, 106 RBI, 217 H, 149 R, 73 SB, 84 K, 80 BB, OPS+ 168 Acuna has a monster season and will reward him the first MVP title. He ranked top three in many offensive categories and became the fifth member of the 40-40 club. Actually, he created a new elite club of 40-70 despite the changes of rules help increase the base stealing numbers dramatically. His super productive year was accomplished by the dramatically decreased strike out rate, which is ridicules. Defensively, he is an average outfielder due to his poor range and inaccurate first jump. His arm strength is atop the league though. The minus dWAR is the key reason his WAR value just led Mookie Betts’ by a narrow margin of 0.1 (which many Dodgers fans cried for). But one way or the other, Acuna is the MVP. Period. Ozzie Albies fWAR 4.0 .280/.336/.513 33 HR, 109 RBI, 172 H, 127 R, 13 SB, 107 K, 46 BB, OPS+ 124 Albies set new career-high numbers in homerun and RBI. He had a slow start in April and May, particularly on the left-handed side. He finally got hot since hitting the number two hole. He fit perfectly into this role behind Acuna, and his numbers accumulated fast. He ended up with a WRC+ of 108 against righties which is his career high. His number against lefties are killing again as WRC+ of 174. Probably due to the ban of defensive shift, his defense showed a cliff drop which was the lowest point of his career. His range was terribly narrow which became even apparently when Nicky Lopez was arrived at the trade deadline. Off the field, he is a true leadership and literally a nurd (who set up a camera for communicating with his fishes during guest games). Basically, Braves fans should stop complaining him about anything because he just earned 7M per year from now to 2027. Austin Riley fWAR 5.2 .281/.345/.516 37 HR, 97 RBI, 179 H, 117 R, 3 SB, 172 K, 59 BB, OPS+ 128 Riley has played mediocrely since he signed the mega deal with the Braves since last August. Nonetheless, he eventually broke through the “slump” and delivered really solid numbers at the number three hole since July. He almost has another 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season but just comes up short by 3 RBIs. Due to the superhero season of Acuna and Olson, he could be the most underrated Brave player this year. On the field, after a rough start, Riley somehow figured out a way to improve his defensive skills at about the same time when his bat lived up. He ranked second among Braves infielders with an OAA of +2. Matt Olson fWAR 6.6 .283/.389/.604 54 HR, 139 RBI, 172 H, 127 R, “3 3B”, 167 K, 104 BB, OPS+ 162 In his second year as a Brave, Olson has an extraordinary season who broke both franchise records in homerun (54) and RBI (136). After a good start, Olson slumped again in May which makes people wonder if he has reached his ceiling, especially when compared to “THE EX”. Nonetheless, since he was moved from the number two to number four hole, his bat all-of-a-sudden heated up, and eventually set up a monster season of his own. Later we know from the reports that Ozuna actually provided him advices, and helped he clean up defects in the swing mechanism. His bat lived up ever since. He was once the “Strike out King” in May and ended up just ranked 17th among the league. Defensively, he still keeps fans asking how he could be awarded two golden gloves back to 2018-2019. It is true his defense got better at the second half, probably around the average at its best. Marcell Ozuna fWAR 2.9 .274/.346/.558 40 HR, 100 RBI, 145 H, 84 R, 134 K, 57 BB, OPS+ 138 Ozuna was another miracle of the 2023 Braves. He was a trouble in the past two seasons, both in the field and off the field (domestic violence (both victim and perpetrator), DUI). He had another miserable April and received a lot of boos from the audience, which was very, very rare for a nice fanbase like us. After listening to advices from Big Papi, his bat suddenly became alive at his old home field – LoanDepot Park in early May, and carried himself and the whole team ever since. He did have another slump in July but could figure things out soon. He becomes much more patient when at bat, and recognized the balls much better than past two seasons. He regained the form when he earned the homerun king in the Covid-19 shortened season, and ended up with an OPS of .940+ since May. For the first time since 2021, he didn’t need to show up his miserable defense in the left field, which is a suspect reason that help he focus more on hitting. Also, it is until the second half of this season we realized he was beloved in the dugout and played crucial chemistry enzyme to tie the team up. How ironic it is! Sean Murphy fWAR 4,2 .251/.365/.478 21 HR, 68 RBI, 93 H, 65 R, 98 K, 49 BB, OPS+ 125 Murphy experienced a coaster roller season in his first stay with the Braves. He was pretty much like an MVP candidate with a .990+ OPS and 17 homeruns in the first half, but regressed mighty to a terrible sub .600 OPS with only four homeruns in the second half. His BABIP was .353 in the first half (quite lucky) and dropped to .187 in the second half (terribly unlucky). Unexpectedly, his defensive skills including catching steals and blocking regressed at the same time. At this point it is unclear what exactly happened. Did he play with some minor injuries? I anticipate he could get more comfortable with the Braves in his second season just like Olson. But for the upcoming postseason, it is better not to expect too much. Having his catcher job done is all we needed. Eddie Rosario fWAR 1.5 .255/.305/.450 21 HR, 74 RBI, 122 H, 64 R, 122 K, 34 BB, OPS+ 100 Eddie has an up and down season. His numbers, when compared to most Braves players, is mediocre. Yet, it cannot be denied when putting his numbers to some other teams, say the Giants, he will become the best player of the team. When Eddie is on, he is a Super Mario; but when he is off, he is as terrible as a nobody. His numbers have the most positive correlation with the Braves records. He had a WRC+ of 193 and 152 In June and August, during both spans the Braves were literally unbeatable. In other months when he was down, the Braves are still a very decent team, yet not that level of excellence. The high positive correlation is understandable since he is in the seventh hole, and given the ridiculous numbers our first five guys provided, he can drive many home and make the game wide open, yap, when he is on. Defensively, he has a positive OAA although I am never a fan of his defense. To sum up. our best wishes to witness another super Mario transformation in October. After all, his numbers are terrific in even months. Orlando Arcia fWAR 1.9 .264/.321/.420 17 HR, 65 RBI, 129 H, 66 R, 102 K, 39 BB, OPS+ 98 Arica is another surprising piece of the 2023 Braves team. Prospect Vaughn Grissom came into the spring training with the starting shortstop job to lose, and he did lose it. Arcia surprisingly appointed as the starting shortstop at the end of the spring training stunned tons of people, but he soon showed up he deserved the call. He fit the vacancy created by the free agent Dansby Swanson defensively and offensively surprisingly good. Offensively, he finally showed up his long praised talent as a top 10 prospect back to 2016. He was a clutch hitter in a couple of key games. His offense numbers did regress as the season continued, but you cannot complain given he just earned 2.3 M this year. His defense is nowhere close to the golden glover Swanson. Yet, he is still a solid shortstop with a positive OAA. Given how thin our middle infielders are down to the farm, he could secure this position (with a salary of 2M per year) for a couple of years to come. Michael Harris II fWAR 3.9 .293/.331/.477 18 HR, 57 RBI, 148 H, 76 R, 20 SB, 191 K, 25 BB, OPS+ 114 Harris has a terrible start this season which was further slowed down by back injury. His numbers were so miserable that many fans wondered if he should send down to make up the credits in AAA which he skipped last year. In late May, after encouraging by Ozuna to trust himself and with his back fully healthy, he regained his 2021 Rookie-of-the-Year form to raise his batting average all the way from sub .200 to .290+. He almost hit the .300 mark in early September, which might have made him the third player ever to play under .200 at the beginning of June, but end up with .300 plus. Overall, he repeated his numbers quite a bit over the past year offensively and defensively. He is a more than capable ninth hole hitter and should have been slotted into the second hole in many other teams. He is a solid but not great center fielder whose OAA (7) is the highest among Braves players. Travis d’Arnaud fWAR 0.9 .225/.288/.397 11 HR, 39 RBI, 67 K, 21 BB, OPS+ 82 d’Arnaud was sidelined by his fourth concussion of professional career soon after the season began. He spent a month on IL and his playing time was significantly trimmed due to the hot start of Murphy in the first half. When Murphy finally cooled down in the second half, they split the time behind the plate quite evenly. He showed sign of regression as his numbers in all categories declined from the year before. His skill to put the ball to the opposite-side of the field also disappeared in most at bats. As a backup catcher and clubhouse leadership, he is still a crucial part of the organization. However, for the playoff to come, it is quite headache to learn the catcher tandem is in deep slump through the end of the season. d’Arnaud has played the World Series twice and his playoff experience is invaluable. Yet, his incapability to prevent runners from stealing the bases could kill the team in key moments. Kevin Pillar fWAR 0.2 .228/.248/.416 9 HR, 32 RBI, 50 K, 6 BB, OPS+ 74 Pillar is a platoon candidate against lefties with Eddie. He hit pretty well against lefties, and did drive 9 homers, one shy to tie the NL record for eleven men with 10+ homeruns. At the age of 34, he still has plus defensive skills in the outfield, and his sliding catches saved the game multiple time this season. Nicky Lopez fWAR 0.4 Nicky was acquired from the Royals at the trade deadline as a super utilityman. He has plus plus defensive skills around the diamond except from behind. He could be a crucial piece in late innings of a playoff game. The 2023 Braves team becomes quite complete since he joined the team. Forrest Wall fWAR 0.4 Run Forrest run! After spending nine years in the minors, he finally got the call and recorded his first hit, homerun, and steal base with the Braves. In a tiny sample size, he slashed .462/.533/.846. He will serve as the pinch runner in the playoff and has the ability to steal 3rd base easily. Vaughn Grissom fWAR = -0.7 (most negative) Grissom lost the starting shortstop job to Arcia at the end of the spring training. He was called up and filled in that role in later April when Arica’ s wrist suffered from a microfracture. He showed again he was nowhere close to a big-league shortstop defensively, by any measure. On the other hand, he did have a terrific season offensively in triple A, slashing .330/.407/.477. Many are curious about his future with the Braves given his ability to hit and his incapability to play as a middle infielder. Sam Hilliard fWAR = 0.0 Hilliard served as the primary center fielder when Harris hit the IL. He played the game fairly good defensively. On occasion, he delivered some offensive help. He lost the job when Harris was back, and had little time to play since. He was placed on the IL due to heel contusion in July to end his season. II) Rotation The theoretical rotation this season was Fried – Strider – Morton - Wright – Elder or someone else. However, this rotation was just run two- or three-times whole season long. The 2023 Braves used 16 starters, including three openers to fill up the vacancy of Fried and Wright. Among which, eight different 5th starters were used: Shuster, Dodd, Soroka, AJSS, Allard, Chirinos, Winans, and Vines in the order of appearance). Had the Braves failed again in the postseason, the rotation must be one of the major reasons. Max Fried fWAR 1.9 8-1, 77.2 IP, ERA 2.55, FIP 3.14, WHIP 1.133, 80 K, 18 BB When Fried is health, he is still one of the most dominant southpaw league wise. Nonetheless, the 2025-FA was plagued by multiple injuries though the season. Fried injured his hamstring at the opening day, followed by a three-month void due to forearm issue. Fried eventually hit the IL again at the end of the season due to blisters onthe left index finger. Since he was back from the scary forearm injury in late August, he started to transfer back to his old pattern – using a lot of curveballs. It is unclear if the forearm issue limits him from using sliders, but clearly, the large number of curveballs used could be related to the reappearance of blisters at the end of the season. At this point, it is unknown whether he can take the ball on a regular rest basis in the playoff due to the blister issue. Had he cannot, that will be a devastating blow to the Braves. Spencer Strider fWAR 5.5 20-5, 186.2 IP, ERA 3.86, FIP 2.85, WHIP 1.093, 281 K, 58 BB Strider has a terrific season and could be end up as the runner up of the CY Award. He set numerous MLB or franchise records such as the most K in Braves history (from certainly to barely), the most K in first career 50 starts, etc. On the other side of the hill, he was hit hard from time to time and his barrel rate was nothing from dominance. The reason is obvious since he just mixed up two pitches – 4-seamer and slider – in most of the time. He relies heavily on the “rising” movement of the 4-semaer to produce swing and miss, and to protect his nasty slider. Once the movement was down, he was hit hard. His slider has excellent vertical as well as horizontal breaks and can mixed into two types. He has a changeup with positive pitch value but used sparsely. The inconsistency of his changeup is still an issue to be fixed in the future. Maybe Tommy’s point is correct: Strider’s 4-seamer is too good to prevent him from developing the third pitch seriously. Interestingly, he was hit hard by teams under .500 and dominant against teams above .500. The reason is a mystery (probably just a small sample size). He did show signs of fragility at the end of the season as the accumulated numbers began to slow down. His ability to go deep in the postseason will be crucial to the Braves. Charlie Morton fWAR 2.7 14-12, 163.1 IP, ERA 3.64, FIP 3.87, WHIP 1.427, 183 K, 83 BB At the age of 39/40, Morton finally shows more and more signs he has run out of the gas. The unfortunate shin injury at the 2021 World Series plagued him (lack of a full spring training) through the entire 2022 season. When compared to the previous one, he actually regained his control on the mount this year. Yet, his command become more and more inconsistent, and the free-pass rate has been soared. He could have a couple of decent games, but followed by a game or two in which he lost the zone completely. To give him an extra day of rest in-between starts, the Braves creatively used eight staters as the fourth, fifth, and even sixth starter. Morton ended his regular season unexpectedly with a strained right index finger in the first inning of his nominal second-to-the-last start of the season, and will miss the entire NLDS, to the least. His availability in the second round (had the Braves advances) is unknown. Despite the variety of aging problems, he is still a more than capable #3 starter. He may option to retire after the season, and how to fill the 150-inning void next year would be a huge problem to the Braves. Bryce Elder fWAR 1.8 12-4, 174.2 IP, ERA 3.81, FIP 4.42, WHIP 1.277, 128 K, 63 BB Elder’s stuff is at the best a fifth starter. Yet, he filled in the number 3 starter role almost all season long. He has a terrific first half and even rewarded him the first All-star. Nonetheless, his advance metrics suggest an opposite way, and the predication turned out to be true in the second half. As a sinkerball pitcher with low-90 velocity, he relies heavily on the command, which was off in September due to fragility. With the absence of Morton, he is presumed the third starter in NLDS. However I hope the Braves could play that game more wisely with some tricks. Kyle Wright The last year 20-Win winner injured his shoulder when entering into the spring training and re-injured it again in late April. He did not return until mid-September. There is not much to say about his injured-plague season. He could be a long reliver in the postseason, but the effectiveness is still questionable. III) Bullpen The 2023 Braves’ bullpen is overall a solid one. There were periods the bullpen was dominant and ranked atop the league, but also periods the bullpen was awful and at the bottom three. The bullpen in September belonged to the latter case which will be an X factor in October. Raisel Iglesias fWAR 1.0 IP 55.2, 33 SV, 17 ER, 68 K, 15 BB Iglesias started the season on IL due to shoulder injury. Since being back, he became the most consistent reliever in the bullpen. He was just off two or three times the entire season, and had another solid season since being traded to the Braves last trade deadline. When compared to Will Smith or Kenley Jansen, his drama was way less interesting. AJ Minter fWAR 1.4 IP 64.2, 10 SV, HLD 21, 27 ER, 82 K, 21 BB Minter stepped in as the closer to open the season but struggle mighty. His cutter was off and his BABIP was high. After he returned to the setup role when Iglesias was back, his performance stabilized and became a solid piece in Braves’ bullpen again. Yet, he was not as dominant as his previous season. It is believed the heavy workload over the past few seasons finally fired back. He hit the IL in mid-July, and since back, the Braves has wisely limited his workload and keep the hope that he will be ready for the postseason. With the absence of Dylan Lee, he could be the only solid lefty in Braves bullpen. Pierce Johnson fWAR 0.4 IP 23.2, HLD 8, 2 ER, 32 K, 5 BB Johnson was acquired at the trade deadline from the Rockies. At the time of acquisition, he has terrible numbers at the Rockies’ home field, but good numbers elsewhere. The good scouting paid back. Johnson provided very solid numbers since joining the Braves’ bullpen with his fastball and curveball. He would be a centerpiece in Braves bullpen in the postseason. Joe Jimenez fWAR 0.5 IP 56.1, HLD 13, 19 ER, 73 K, 14 BB Jimenez is one of the most complicated cases in 2023. He was traded last offseason from the Tigers for our top position prospect Justyn-Henry Mollay. He had spine surgery in December, and was not ready physically when the season began. Many Braves fans started to believe this was one of the worst trades by AA. Yet, he finally put things together in June and was pretty solid in June to August. Nonetheless, he was hit hard again in September in the Dodgers and Phillies series, and creates uncertainty for the upcoming October. Kirby Yates fWAR -0.1 IP 60.1, 5 SV, HLD 9, 22 ER, 80 K, 37 BB In the second season after his second TJ surgery, he was more efficient on the mount. Yet, his command was still an issue (a big issue), and may never regained his All-star form in San Diego. Overall, his numbers are encouraging but his lack of dominance at high leverage situations may limit his role in the postseason. Jesse Chaves fWAR 0.8 IP 34.2, 6 ER, SV, HLD 14, 39 K, 12 BB The fan-favorite Uncle Jesse is simply amazing. He was terrific when putting on the Brave uniform, but terrible when wearing one from any other team. It is another huge mystery over the past few seasons. He pitched so well that sometimes I cannot stop wondering: “would the young pitchers feel embarrassing when watching Jesse pitching so efficiently with pin-point control at the age of 40?” Unfortunately, his terrific season was cut short due to a microfracture on his leg in June due to a liner. At his age, he spent three full months to recover, and was eventually on the mount again in mid-September. He was effective in four of five outings, and could be an essential asset out of the bullpen or as an opener in a postseason game. Considering his age, perhaps having that injury to leave some more in the tank for the playoff may not be a bad thing at all?! Nick Anderson fWAR 0.9 IP 35.1, SV, HLD 15, 12 ER, 36 K, 9 BB After multiple injury-plagued seasons, Nick Anderson signed a minor league deal with the Braves and earned the opening day spot. He served as the setup role in the eighth inning quite efficiently in the first half. Unfortunately, he hit the 60-day IL due to shoulder injury at the All-star break and never came back. He began the rehab assignment in mid-Sep at AAA, but his availability for postseason is unclear. Michael Tonkin fWAR 0.2 IP 80, SV, HLD 2, ER 38, 75 K, 23 BB Tonkin was meant to be DFAed soon after the season began, but he instead stayed on the active roster the entire season due to a wide variety of injuries in the rotation and bullpen. He is a capable long reliver option in the regular season. But in the postseason? He will probably be left out of the roster at all had Stephens wasn’t hurt. Nonetheless, he ate 80 innings which is very much appreciated. Jackson Stephens The 2022 Braves’ legend Jackson Stephens spent most of the time in the minor league IL list this season. He worked very hard to get through and was recalled to the big league in mid-September. After a few good appearances, he was suddenly placed back to the IL at the last day of the season. He will not be ineligible for both NLDS and NLCS. Brad Hand fWAR 0.1 Hand was another acquisition at the trade deadline. The former closer was a soft lefty who relied heavy on his breaking balls. If he is on the postseason roster, the only reason is he is the only lefty available other than the setup man named AJM. What a shame! Collin Mchuge fWAR 0.3 IP 58.2, HLD 7, ER 28, 47 K, 22 BB Mchuge had a terrible season. His strike out rate dropped dramatically and his walk rate increased notably. He was hit hard, very hard, at the same time. His sweeper did not work effectively any more. He was finally placed on the IL in early September and I don’t foresee any chance for him to be on the postseason roster, barring any surprising move. Dylan Lee Lee comes into the season as a capable middle lefty reliver. He has a good April. Nonetheless, the unexpected injuries of Fried and Wright led the Braves to three bullpen games within a two-week span in May. Lee opened one of the games with three solid innings, but unfortunately followed by a shoulder injury which sidelined him basically the rest of the season. Ben Heller Heller was acquired from the Rays in June. The first relief appearance was his best game. He has a power sinker hit 95 mph. Against a lefty loaded lineup like the Phillies, Heller may still have a shot. IV) The fifth starters: Eight different pitchers were used as the fourth, fifth and even sixth starters this season in order to get the top three pitchers some extra rest. In early September, we literally shuffled the starter on a daily basis. The fifth starter combined a fWAR of -0.2. However, by excluding Dodd, Soroka, and AJSS, the rest crew actually provided a combined fWAR of 1.1, which was fairly good for a fifth starter. Here are some notes (in the order of appearance): a) Jared Shuster (LHP) fWAR = 0.1 Shuster earned the fifth spot to begin the season but never pitched well. He has a low-90s fastball with poor command. If he cannot attack the zone more efficiently in the next season, his career as a Brave may be jeopardized. b) Dylan Dodd (LHP) fWAR = -0.5 Also as a lefty, Dodd has a faster 4-seamer than Shuster. But similarly he has trouble to command the ball around the zone. He will be dispatched to Arizona Fall which means the Braves still have some expectation on him. There is still a hope he may be on the postseason roster as the second lefty. c) Michael Soroka (RHP) fWAR = -0.4 After 1029 days, Soroak finally headed back to the big league after tearing his ACL twice. However, he was no longer the pitcher he used to be. He has control problem, and is prone to long balls. The original plan was to call up him in mid-September to gain another year of control. However, during an emergency callup in early Sep. (when we running out of any starting pitcher), he experienced numbness in his fingers which was never a good sign. Many pitchers were eventually diagnosed the Thoracic Outlet Syndrome after multiple attempts to come back. He will be a strong candidate to be non-tendered this off-season. Hopefully he will sign a minor league deal with the Braves again. d) AJ Smith-Shwaver (RHP) fWAR = -0.3 AJSS was the sole Top 100 prospect from the Braves organization until the new 2023 draftee Hurston Waldrep joined him at the end of the season. He jumped all the way from A+ to big league as an emergency starter within a three-month span, which was undoubtfully a rush. Prior to this year, he actually has limited experience to pitch (in other words, the talent is high). He suffers a shoulder injury in August and was said to be shut down for the rest of the season. However, he was surprisingly back to the mount in early Sep. and called up twice. His last outing was his best one of the season, which shows why he is the number one top prospect of Braves. I hope he still has a shot to join the postseason roster as a long reliver and/or third starter. e) Kolby Allard (LHP) fWAR = 0.2 Allard was re-acquired from the Rangers for Odorizzi last off-season, and was sidelined by shoulder injury until July. The former first round pick pitched four games for Atlanta before another shoulder issue ended his season. His command is still an issue after six years hopping on and off the big league. f) Yonny Chirinos (RHP) fWAR = 0.1 Chirinos was a waiver claim from the Rays prior to the trade deadline. Before sidelined by an elbow injury, he started five games for the Braves in July and August, in which the team won four. The duty as a starter is too demanding to him, but he could be a capable long reliever with a 93-94 mph sinkerball and splitfinger combo. He could have a shot to stay with the team next year if staying health. g) Allan Winans (RHP) fWAR = 0.5 Winans is an inspiring story of the year. He was unprotected by the Mets in 2019 and the Braves claimed him in the rule five draft (minor league phase). He was a substitute teacher in an elementary school when getting the call. He never gave up and went all the way to the big league in 2023 after a dominant year in triple A. He doesn’t have fantastic stuffs, but shows the ability to attack the strike zone efficiently. He was dominant in two games when the team faced him up for the first time, but was hit hard a weak later when faced him again. Overall, his contribution as an emergency starter is highly appreciated. In several games he pitched, the coach has made it clear in advance that there is no bullpen arms available in early innings. He pitched into depth and earned the bullpen some extra rest. h) Darius Vines (RHP) fWAR = 0.1 Vines became the eighth “fifth” starter of the 2023 Braves team. The former seventh round draftee has a good four-seamer/cutter/changeup combo, which can get five innings with limited damage. Like every other prospect as the fifth starter other than AJSS, the downside is once again the fastball velocity, which is 90 at his best. He could find a spot starter role in the years to come. Part V NLDS roster Although Smoltzy is so annoying as a broadcaster, I agreed with hm that this Braves team, with both Fried and Morton healthy, is nearly unbeatable in a best of 7 series. However, for a best of 5, there are too many uncertainties. The Phillies, the most likely opponent, played quite well lately. Here I would like to project a potential roster for discussion. There is nothing to say about the position players. However, the twelfth and thirteenth pitchers are a nightmare. I really hope Nick Anderson can take one of the spots (though apparently not). I would prefer to choose Heller over Tonkin since the latter one has a 9.00+ ERA in September. Also, it is because the Phillies are loaded with power lefties. Depending on the results of the first and second games, and the feeling of Fried’s index finger after Game 2, Game 3 could be either a regular start by Elder or a bullpen game. In that case, I would prefer to open the game with Jesse, followed by AJSS and Wright. Starting Pitchers --------------------------- Spencer Strider Max Fried Bryce Elder Bullpen - Long relievers/openers ------------------------------------------ AJ Smith-Shawver Kyle Wright Jesse Chavez Bullpen – relivers ----------------------------------------- Raisel Iglesias AJ Minter Pierce Johnson Kolby Yates Joe Jimenez Brad Hand Ben Heller Position Players ------------------------- Ronald Acuna Jr. Ozzie Albies Austin Riley Matt Olson Marcell Ozuna Eddie Rosario Sean Murphy Travis d’Arnaud Orlando Arica Michael Harris II Kevin Pillar Nicky Lopez Forrest Wall -- A Historic moment... May 30, 2003 Atlanta 5, NY Mets 2 at Shea Stadium Winning Pitcher - Greg Maddux (4-5) Losing Pitcher - Tom Glavine (5-5) SV - John Smoltz(20) HR - C. Jones (9, off Glavine) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.160.208.190 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Braves/M.1696252857.A.A09.html

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LCH33

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