Brewers top 10 Fantasy picks in '05
If you're looking to load up on Brewers at your Fantasy draft this spring,
and you want to make a serious run at a Fantasy title this fall, here are 10
players you should be targeting. While you probably won't be able to land
everyone on this list, those of you who just can't live if your roster isn't
full of Brewers should keep these guys in mind:
1. Carlos Lee | OF | $26
With his slow but steady improvement over his six Major League seasons, Lee
would be one of the safest fantasy picks in 2005 ... if he were still in
Chicago. Instead, he'll take his bat across state and league lines to
Milwaukee. Lee is certainly capable of going .300-30-100, as he more or less
has over the past two seasons, but he'll be leaving a hitter-friendly
ballpark to join one of the worst offenses in baseball. That would seemingly
portend a drop in his numbers, so be prepared for such a scenario. But even
if his production drops, Lee will give you extra value with his ability to
steal 10-15 bases. That certainly makes him worth a sixth-round pick.
2. Ben Sheets | SP | $24
His development since his rookie season in 2001 has been classic. Too many
long balls hurt him that year. The next season he adjusted, but allowed too
many walks. In his third year, he reined in his control. Then last year, he
added power, which led to an impressive bump in strikeouts. Next, he needs to
win more games. It may not be reasonable to expect that this year, but
Milwaukee is going to score more. What won't be improving is the team's
defense, but as long as he's striking out better than one batter per inning,
that is less of a problem. He had surgery in October for a herniated disk,
but that isn't supposed to affect him come Spring Training.
3. Lyle Overbay | 1B | $13
Overbay went to Milwaukee in the Richie Sexson trade and went absolutely nuts
in the first half of 2004. The numbers were mind-boggling as he racked up 122
hits, 37 doubles, 10 homers, 62 RBIs and a .344 average. In the second half
he evened out as he batted .245 with six homers and only 25 RBIs. The bottom
line is he had a good year. He probably won't have a torrid first half again,
but he should be good for 20 homers, 80 or more runs and RBIs and close to a
.300 average. Overbay's a middle-tier first baseman right now with a nice
upside, so he could have some value in the later rounds.
4. Geoff Jenkins | OF | $12
Jenkins played in more than 135 games for the first time in his
injury-plagued career in 2004, but his fantasy numbers don't really reflect
that. Jenkins matched his output from 2003 with one notable exception: his
batting average sank by 32 points, hovering close to his career average. It's
hard to foresee him returning to being a .290 hitter, but it's easy to
believe he'll approach 30 homers and 90 RBIs again.
5. Doug Davis | SP | $8
Davis threw more strikeouts and ground balls last year, and that elevated
this crafty lefty from a liability to a plus. Davis threw almost exclusively
to Chad Moeller in 2004, who apparently made a good partner. His return and
the dampening effects of Miller Park on batting average, along with his
strong close last year (2.39 ERA in August and September) all offer hope that
Davis will be able to repeat. But the erratic history of crafty lefties is
reason enough to not pursue him too aggressively.
6. Brady Clark | OF | $6
Clark is the likely starter in center for the Brewers after spending most of
2004 as a fourth outfielder. The journeyman is not a bad player and will
probably put up respectable numbers as a starter, especially in steals, where
he should reach double figures easily and might get as many as 20 if he keeps
the starting job all season.
7. Mike Adams | RP | $5
Adams is another player whose potential value rests with his chances to
become his team's closer. The Brewers will go into camp with several
potential closers, including newly acquired Justin Lehr. But after a solid
rookie season, Adams has as good a chance as any of them. Adams went 2-3 with
a 3.40 ERA in 2004 with 39 strikeouts in 53 innings -- a number that you can
expect to increase given his reputation as a strikeout pitcher in college.
Even if he doesn't end up closing, he should still have solid value in 2005,
but if he does, you might stumble into another Danny Kolb.
8. Junior Spivey | 2B | $4
Spivey will begin the season as Milwaukee's starting second baseman a year
after a shoulder injury sidelined him for more than half the season. He has
nice pop, can steal a few bases and should hit for a solid average, but
Spivey has only played in more than 106 games once in his career. He has
Rickie Weeks breathing down his neck, so another injury or a prolonged slump
could lead to Spivey losing his job. A good option if you need to fill your
middle infield spot late, he is otherwise a risk if taken anytime before the
final rounds of a mixed draft.
8(t). Russell Branyan | 3B | $4
Hopefully, hopefully, hopefully this is the year Branyan really gets a
chance. He has absolutely sick power, tape-measure raw power. In 1,262 Major
League at-bats, Branyan has hit one out of the yard every 15.6 chances. Sure,
he strikes out a ton. And? Power, baby. Power. The risk is that the Brewers
might prefer the known mediocrity that is Wes Helms, but if Branyan finally
gets 500 plate appearances, look out.
10. Damian Miller | C | $2
The Brewers are expecting Miller to be a big upgrade, not only behind the
plate, but at it as well. Last season, the platoon of Gary Bennett and Chad
Moeller produced a combined .215 average with eight homers and 47 RBIs. Last
season in Oakland, Miller hit .272 with nine HRs and 58 RBIs. Increasing his
power numbers a bit is not out of the question at Miller Park, but if that
does happen, expect his strikeout numbers (87 last season) to increase as
well.
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