[農場] Hughes, Bailey, and Gallardo (摘譯)

看板Brewers作者cwwu (MIL GO)時間19年前 (2006/10/17 13:25)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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Hughes, Bailey, and Gallardo by Chris Constancio http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hughes-bailey-and-gallardo/ 再過十年，我們回過來看2006年球季可能會發覺這是新世代優秀年輕投手開始他們大聯盟生涯的一個球季。今天，我想要進一步觀察現在仍在小聯盟的三名年輕投手。這三名投手都是在2004年選秀會被選並且在今年球季於2A表現出色。這三名投手中任何一人都可能最快在明年就對大聯盟母隊有所幫助。 Yovani Gallardo Gallardo 出生於墨西哥，不過他在德州長大並且在高中畢業後於2004年選秀會第二輪被選走。今年球季他投出領先全小聯盟的188次三振。強項：釀酒人總經理 Doug Melvin 用"非常棒"來描述它。Huntsville 投手教練 Rich Sauveur 稱它"荒謬"。釀酒人三壘新秀 Ryan Braun 則說它是"不可思議的"。他們所談論的都是 Gallardo 在投手丘上的鎮定。這名20歲年輕爸爸的成熟度以及他在投球丘上的風采讓許多人印象深刻。風險：Gallardo 對於四個球種都有不錯的控球能力，不過他沒有像 Homer Bailey 或 Philip Hughes 那樣壓倒性的球威可以依靠。取而代之的是，他必須控制自己90mph速球的進壘點並且使用變速球跟變化球來破壞打者的平衡。他在過去很少受傷，不過值得注意的是在過去兩年他的投球局數比另外兩人多。預測： Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 170 169 75 3.66 2008 NL 179 154 82 3.36 Philip Hughes Hughes started the season in the Florida State League, but he earned a promotion in May and went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 21 Eastern League starts. Strengths: Hughes’ stuff is above-average, but his impeccable control really sets him apart from other top pitching prospects. Hughes commands his fastball and secondary pitches well within the strike zone, and he only walked 34 batters in 146 innings pitched during 2006. Risks: Hughes has been bothered by elbow and shoulder tendonitis in the past, but the Yankees coddled him with strict pitch and innings limits in 2006. The way his body responds to increased workloads in the coming years will be the most important factor in determining whether or not Hughes fulfills his potential as a front-of-rotation starting pitcher for the Yankees. Projection: Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 159 150 46 2.86 2008 AL 168 128 53 3.34 Homer Bailey Bailey, the seventh overall pick from the 2004 draft, went 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA after a June promotion to the Double-A Southern League. There was speculation that Bailey would join the Reds during their run at a playoff spot in September, and he may have a chance to earn a spot in the Cincinnati rotation next spring. Strengths: Homer Bailey’s upside is as high as any pitcher in the minor leagues right now. His curveball has a hard break and his lively fastball can reach 97 mph. Risks: I worry about Bailey’s occasional control problems. Bailey walked more than five batters per nine innings in 2005, but the Reds suggested the high walk rate was due to their insistence that he work with secondary pitches. His control was improved in 2006, but he walked 20 batters in his final 31 innings of this year’s regular season. In his only playoff start, Bailey walked three batters and tossed two wild pitches in a 2-0 loss versus Huntsville. Projection: Year Lg IP SO BB ERA 2007 AAA 152 149 76 3.72 2008 NL 161 135 92 4.15 這三名20歲的投手今年的成績非常接近，不過他們的未來看起來有一點不同。在2010年以前 Gallardo 是這三人中入選明星隊機會最小的球員，不過他有一個美好職業生涯的機率跟另兩人一樣高。 Bailey 的球路品質比 Hughes 或 Gallardo 好一點，所以紅人所面對的報酬上限及風險都比洋基或釀酒人高。Bailey 也是這三人中最可能在明年四月搶下大聯盟先發投手位置的球員。一些洋基球迷想要看到 Hughes 明年在大聯盟先發，不過洋基有投手深度及資源讓他們可以耐心地對待這名他們十幾年來最讓人興奮的投手新秀。假設他們都能保持健康，我認為 Hughes 是這三人中最可能於25歲前在大聯盟交出平均水準以上成績的球員。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.175.153.126