[討論] Ryan Braun: Greatest First-Year Slugger Ever?

看板Brewers作者chanword (chanword)時間18年前 (2007/08/22 00:27)推噓9(9推 0噓 3→)

留言12則, 4人參與討論串1/1

Baseball Analysts的文章轉貼過來，算作存檔也好：） Ryan Braun: Greatest First-Year Slugger Ever? By Rich Lederer Ryan Braun led off the second inning yesterday with his 24th home run of the season to give Milwaukee an early 1-0 advantage although the Brewers later blew a five-run lead and lost 7-6 to the Cincinnati Reds. The Brew Crew has now dropped six of its last seven and 10 of 13 while slipping into second place in the National League Central, one game behind the Chicago Cubs. Although the Brewers are only 35-42 since Braun made his MLB debut on May 25, nobody can blame Milwaukee's misfortunes on its rookie third baseman. The fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft is quietly having one of the greatest seasons ever for a first-year player. Let's take a look at his year-to-date stats: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 76 309 58 106 17 5 24 62 23 70 10 4 .343 .388 .663 1.051 168 Due to a late start to his season, Braun is 46 plate appearances short of qualifying for the league lead in batting average and other rate stats. If the 23-year-old sensation had met the minimum, he would sit atop the NL in batting average (.343) and slugging average (.663) and rank second to Barry Bonds in OPS (.1051 to 1.084). His AVG, SLG, and OPS are all higher than fellow third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who is in the midst of another great season. By not appearing among the league leaders in the newspaper every day, the former University of Miami (FL) All-America has escaped the attention of the average fan. With 338 plate appearances and 38 games to go, Braun is on the bubble as to whether he will qualify for the batting and slugging crowns at season's end. If he continues to average 4.45 PA per game while missing no more than one contest, Braun will just meet the minimum threshold of 502 PA needed to qualify. Should Braun fail short, he still could win the batting and slugging titles under a rule that was put in place in 1967 by figuring the remaining at-bats as hitless. If Braun's recalculated averages are superior to those who qualified, then he would be awarded the titles. According to Wikipedia, "this policy was invoked in 1981, securing Bill Madlock his third NL batting crown, and in 1996, when NL titlist Tony Gwynn finished the year with only 498 PAs." In any event, to put Braun's numbers in historical perspective, he is on pace to produce the highest AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ of any first-year player in the modern era. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound native of Southern California is in elite company with such greats as Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson, and Ted Williams. Player SLG Year Age 1 George Watkins .621 1930 30 2 Wally Berger .614 1930 24 3 Albert Pujols .610 2001 21 4 Ted Williams .609 1939 20 5 Dale Alexander .580 1929 26 6 Johnny Mize .577 1936 23 7 Joe DiMaggio .576 1936 21 8 Frank Robinson .558 1956 20 9 Zeke Bonura .545 1934 25 10 Johnny Frederick .545 1929 27 11 Del Bissonette .543 1928 28 12 Buzz Arlett .538 1931 32 13 Earl Averill .538 1929 27 14 Paul Waner .528 1926 23 15 Mitchell Page .521 1977 25 16 Jimmie Hall .521 1963 25 17 Wally Judnich .520 1940 23 18 Bob Meusel .517 1920 23 19 Johnny Rizzo .514 1938 25 20 Orlando Cepeda .512 1958 20 George Watkins was 30-years-old when he slugged .621 in 1930, the season with the highest AVG, SLG, and OPS in the history of baseball. With only 424 PA, the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder would have failed to qualify under today's rules, yet met the less stringent criteria of his day by playing in a minimum of 100 games. Braun was mentioned in the same sentence as Pujols earlier this month when he hit his 20th HR in 64 games – the fastest to reach that mark since Albert did it in his 63rd game in 2001. At 1.051, Braun's on-base plus slugging (OPS) would also rank #1 among all first-year players. Player OPS Year Age 1 Ted Williams 1.045 1939 20 2 George Watkins 1.036 1930 30 3 Albert Pujols 1.013 2001 21 4 Wally Berger .989 1930 24 5 Johnny Mize .979 1936 23 6 Dale Alexander .977 1929 26 7 Paul Waner .941 1926 23 8 Del Bissonette .939 1928 28 9 Frank Robinson .937 1956 20 10 Earl Averill .936 1929 27 11 Joe DiMaggio .928 1936 21 12 Mitchell Page .926 1977 25 13 Zeke Bonura .925 1934 25 14 Buzz Arlett .925 1931 32 15 Johnny Frederick .917 1929 27 16 Don Hurst .899 1928 22 17 Bob Johnson .892 1933 27 18 Alvin Davis .888 1984 23 19 Wally Judnich .888 1940 23 20 Johnny Rizzo .882 1938 25 One has to sit up and take notice when a player is producing at the same level as The Splendid Splinter. However, Williams was only 20 when he broke in so it would be a stretch to suggest that Braun's initial season might portend a similar career path. When we adjust for home ballpark and era, Braun's OPS+ of 168 would rank as the best first season in the annals of modern baseball. Player OPS+ Year Age 1 Johnny Mize 161 1936 23 2 Ted Williams 160 1939 20 3 Albert Pujols 158 2001 21 4 Mitchell Page 152 1977 25 5 Dale Alexander 148 1929 26 6 Paul Waner 147 1926 23 7 Alvin Davis 146 1984 23 8 Del Bissonette 144 1928 28 9 Del Ennis 143 1946 21 10 George Watkins 143 1930 30 11 Frank Robinson 142 1956 20 12 Curt Blefary 139 1965 21 13 Johnny Rizzo 139 1938 25 14 Jeff Bagwell 138 1991 23 15 Buzz Arlett 138 1931 32 16 Wally Berger 137 1930 24 17 Jimmie Hall 136 1963 25 18 Cuckoo Christensen 136 1926 26 19 Gavvy Cravath 136 1908 27 20 Earl Averill 135 1929 27 If discussing Braun's place in history is a bit premature with more than a month to go, I believe it is safe to say that he is a virtual lock to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Braun has even been mentioned as an MVP candidate although it says here that he will have a difficult time beating out teammate Prince Fielder, who is leading the league in home runs with 38. To Braun's credit, he has hit some big home runs this season. None was bigger than the game-winning, three-run homer he cranked against Brad Lidge on Saturday, August 11. Braun moved to the cleanup spot in the order last Tuesday and went 3-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs. With Fielder hitting in front of rather than behind Braun, it will be interesting to see if pitchers begin to work him differently. In the meantime, the man who wears #8 on his jersey is absolutely crushing lefthanders. AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS vs. LHP 79 11 14 12 .468 .543 1.013 1.556 vs. RHP 230 13 9 58 .300 .328 .543 .864 Small sample size for sure but impressive nonetheless. While not eye popping, Braun's numbers vs. righthanders are solid. The only disconcerting split involves his BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP. Braun is hitting at home (.321/.384/.648), on the road (.367/.391/.680), during the day (.339/.378/.621), and at night (.346/.394/.692 ). He ripped pitchers in the first half (.350/.391/.663 ) and is tearing 'em up in the second half (.336/.384/.664). The only place in the strike zone where pitchers have had mediocre success is up and in where the righthanded-hitting slugger is batting .273. He is hitting .324 or better in all of the other zones, including .556 over the heart of the plate and waist high and .583 down the middle between the knees and the thighs. Braun also hits the ball with authority to all fields. Braun is not without his weaknesses. He has made 19 errors in 75 games and his fielding percentage of .893 would rank as the 14th worst among 3B with 100 or more games since 1900. FIELDING PERCENTAGE YEAR PCT G 1 Charlie Hickman 1900 .842 120 2 Hunter Hill 1904 .864 127 3 Tommy Leach 1903 .879 127 4 Harry Wolverton 1900 .881 104 5 Otto Krueger 1901 .881 142 6 Bill Bradley 1900 .882 106 7 Joel Youngblood 1984 .887 117 8 Emil Batch 1905 .887 145 9 Doc Casey 1901 .887 127 10 Jim Delahanty 1904 .888 113 11 Jimmy Williams 1900 .889 103 12 Roy Hartzell 1906 .889 103 13 Sammy Strang 1902 .890 139 14 Fred Hartman 1901 .894 119 15 Jimmy Collins 1907 .895 139 16 Jap Barbeau 1909 .895 132 17 Nixey Callahan 1903 .895 102 18 Harry Lord 1912 .895 106 19 Heinie Zimmerman 1914 .897 118 20 Jimmy Burke 1904 .897 118 21 Charlie Pick 1916 .899 108 22 Butch Hobson 1978 .899 133 23 Gary Sheffield 1993 .899 133 Interestingly, only three other third sackers – Butch Hobson (1978), Joel Youngblood (1984), and Gary Sheffield (1993) – have had a fielding percentage below .900 since 1916. After leading the Brewers with five home runs during spring training, Braun was assigned to Nashville of the Pacific Coast League primarily to work on his defensive footwork and throwing. Not surprisingly, the prized prospect dominated Triple-A pitchers to the tune of .342/.418/.701. Over the course of 110 combined major and minor league games, Braun has hit .343 with 34 HR. Make sure you don't confuse Ryan Braun with the 27-year-old rookie pitcher for the KC Royals by the same name. Well, I guess it is confusing. But the key is not to be mistaken by the two. It might be helpful – and more accurate – to think of the Milwaukee Brewers slugger as none other than Ryan Brawn. Baseball Analysts～～8月20的文章這幾年年輕的強打者越來越多，真可怕～ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.59.12.229