[情報] 2009 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

看板Brewers作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/10/24 23:20)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/5ektnz The Sabathia trade paid off very nicely in the short-term for the Brewers. While it's obviously disappointing that the Phillies proceeded to eliminate the Brewers in 4 games, the Brewers should still be proud of the season they had. The Brewers have a few challenges this offseason, but the offense shouldn't be one of them. Fielder and Braun are two of the best young players in the game, Hardy took another step forward to that tier below Jose Reyes/Hanley Ramirez, and while both were a bit disappointing, both Weeks and Hart are important contributors. Replacing Sabathia and Sheets, on the other hand, is a major challenge. If there ever was a time for the team to seriously open up their wallet, it's now, with both crucial for the rotation. I like a healthy Yovani Gallardo a lot, but it's too much to ask him to replace one of the top two starters. Milwaukee's best chance to bring one back is probably Ben Sheets - with a few huge names on the starting market, perhaps the injury risk will cause him to fall under the radar a bit. I'm trying out a new report format (explanation down at the bottom), so any feedback is appreciated. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K CThr VERY GOOD Angel Salome c 23 .277 .314 .429 101 382 48 106 23 1 11 51 20 53 Fr FAIR Jason Kendall c 35 .262 .337 .328 129 458 49 120 22 1 2 39 41 45 Fr Jonathan Lucroy c 23 .237 .294 .382 130 503 55 119 22 0 17 66 40 81 Av Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 Fr Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 Av POOR Lou Palmisano c 26 .221 .296 .336 78 271 27 60 13 0 6 29 26 50 Av Carlos Corporan# c 25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Prince Fielder* 1b 25 .285 .388 .569 162 594 100 169 33 2 44 129 91 127 Fr AVERAGE Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 Av POOR Jay Gibbons* rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 Fr Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 Av Mike Lamb* 3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 Fr Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 Av Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 Av Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 Fr Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 Fr Carlos Corporan# c 25 .228 .271 .365 78 263 24 60 15 0 7 32 11 47 Av Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Rickie Weeks 2b 26 .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 Fr AVERAGE Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 Fr FAIR Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 Pr Ray Durham# 2b 37 .235 .326 .357 108 336 46 79 21 1 6 36 45 64 Fr Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 Fr POOR Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 Fr Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 Av Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 Av Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 Fr Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Ryan Braun lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 Pr AVERAGE Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 Fr FAIR Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 Vg Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 Fr Mike Lamb* 3b 33 .268 .330 .389 98 265 35 71 13 2 5 32 25 38 Pr Matthew Gamel* 3b 23 .260 .314 .424 139 550 76 143 33 3 17 76 42 105 Fr POOR Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 Pr Taylor Green* 3b 22 .243 .304 .391 128 486 46 118 21 0 17 65 41 66 Av Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 Pr Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 Av Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 Av Michael Rivera c 32 .234 .283 .388 65 214 20 50 9 0 8 29 12 40 Pr Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 Vg Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT J.J. Hardy ss 26 .277 .337 .479 124 476 69 132 26 2 22 80 42 76 Fr AVERAGE Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 Fr FAIR Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 Fr Craig Counsell* ss 38 .218 .331 .282 96 220 25 48 11 0 1 18 34 37 Vg POOR Alcides Escobar ss 22 .268 .292 .342 136 544 71 146 18 2 6 53 18 74 Vg Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K EXCELLENT Ryan Braun lf 25 .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 Av VERY GOOD Corey Hart rf 27 .282 .331 .491 140 503 73 142 35 5 20 82 33 96 Av AVERAGE Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .234 .330 .460 92 239 32 56 12 0 14 42 33 78 Fr FAIR Gabe Kapler cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 Vg Jay Gibbons* rf 32 .266 .317 .435 59 207 22 55 14 0 7 29 15 34 Pr Joe Dillon 3b 33 .255 .334 .401 102 282 45 72 15 1 8 37 32 42 Av POOR Brad Nelson* 1b 26 .239 .319 .395 141 451 56 108 26 1 14 59 51 89 Fr Laynce Nix* cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 Av Cole Gillespie lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 Vg Brandon Katin rf 26 .233 .281 .403 114 387 43 90 19 1 15 54 20 111 Fr Vinny Rottino c 29 .251 .306 .354 118 410 46 103 19 1 7 44 29 65 Fr Adam Heether 3b 27 .234 .308 .346 131 445 52 104 24 1 8 48 44 86 Av Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 Av Anthony Gwynn* cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 Vg Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 Av Chris Woodward ss 33 .232 .285 .318 86 220 21 51 11 1 2 19 16 40 Av Lorenzo Cain rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Mike Cameron cf 36 .246 .333 .446 125 475 74 117 30 4 19 73 57 132 Av AVERAGE Gabe Kapler cf 33 .276 .327 .432 84 192 30 53 13 1 5 25 13 32 Fr Bill Hall 3b 29 .248 .315 .445 135 452 65 112 31 2 18 69 44 133 Pr FAIR Laynce Nix* cf 28 .241 .293 .420 117 395 45 95 18 1 17 58 26 106 Fr POOR Cole Gillespie lf 25 .231 .305 .377 129 472 58 109 26 2 13 58 47 89 Fr Callix Crabbe# 2b 26 .238 .325 .327 121 395 48 94 16 2 5 37 49 63 Av Anthony Gwynn* cf 26 .257 .313 .314 118 382 45 98 12 2 2 32 30 61 Av Hernan Iribarren* 2b 25 .254 .298 .318 123 449 51 114 19 2 2 39 28 78 Fr Lorenzo Cain rf 23 .223 .277 .321 128 507 58 113 22 2 8 48 32 97 Vg * - Hits Left # - Switch-Hitter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD C.C. Sabathia* 28 3.07 17 7 31 31 223.0 203 76 19 47 222 Ben Sheets 30 3.41 12 7 26 26 161.0 153 61 14 38 136 Yovani Gallardo 23 3.73 5 3 14 14 82.0 74 34 7 35 74 MIDDLE THIRD David Bush 29 4.50 9 11 31 29 180.0 189 90 26 42 125 Chris Capuano* 30 4.53 8 8 24 22 137.0 147 69 17 39 115 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Manny Parra* 26 4.57 7 7 24 23 128.0 134 65 12 60 101 BOTTOM THIRD Jeff Suppan 34 5.04 8 11 28 28 168.0 196 94 21 60 95 Nic Ungs 29 5.27 4 7 20 16 94.0 107 55 14 34 50 Sam Narron* 27 5.41 5 9 23 20 123.0 147 74 16 36 48 Lindsay Gulin* 32 5.73 5 9 23 21 113.0 126 72 19 56 67 Chris Narveson* 27 6.03 4 8 19 16 91.0 106 61 18 41 60 Richie Gardner 27 6.10 3 7 20 15 90.0 109 61 14 43 46 Jeremy Jeffress 21 6.24 4 10 20 19 88.0 98 61 17 55 59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K MIDDLE THIRD Brian Shouse* 40 3.72 2 2 66 0 46.0 46 19 4 15 30 Mitch Stetter* 28 3.82 4 3 50 0 40.0 35 17 4 20 38 Salomon Torres 37 3.88 5 4 68 0 72.0 71 31 6 27 55 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mark DiFelice 32 4.33 4 4 26 10 79.0 81 38 13 14 59 David Riske 32 4.34 2 2 54 1 56.0 54 27 8 27 48 BOTTOM THIRD Guillermo Mota 35 4.58 3 4 53 0 57.0 56 29 8 24 52 Carlos Villanueva 25 4.60 5 5 30 11 94.0 97 48 14 31 77 Todd Coffey 28 4.62 4 4 72 0 76.0 82 39 9 29 55 Eric Gagne 33 4.72 2 3 42 0 40.0 39 21 7 17 40 Erasmo Ramirez* 33 4.74 4 4 48 0 57.0 66 30 8 11 30 Seth McClung 28 4.80 5 6 42 9 90.0 86 48 10 61 72 Joe Bateman 29 4.83 3 3 45 0 69.0 73 37 9 29 47 Luis Pena 26 5.03 3 4 54 0 59.0 61 33 5 40 38 Tim Dillard 25 5.12 5 7 42 12 123.0 144 70 14 41 57 Derrick Turnbow 31 5.36 3 5 52 0 47.0 39 28 4 50 56 Troy Cate* 27 5.59 2 5 39 7 74.0 84 46 12 32 48 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Ryan Braun Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .337 .390 .683 160 638 128 215 47 9 52 160 51 111 175 Mean .306 .358 .620 150 598 107 183 39 7 45 136 45 123 151 Pessimistic (15%) .271 .317 .516 139 554 71 150 32 4 32 103 34 128 115 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Rice, Joe Medwick, Yeshua ben Joseph Player Spotlight - Rickie Weeks Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .280 .400 .506 145 528 127 148 31 8 24 92 87 125 137 Mean .246 .359 .409 124 452 89 111 22 5 14 61 65 118 102 Pessimistic (15%) .216 .310 .331 112 408 52 88 17 3 8 42 45 114 69 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Tony Bernazard, Willie Randolph Player Spotlight - Manny Parra ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.55 10 6 27 26 147 135 58 11 60 130 123 Mean 4.57 7 7 24 23 128 134 65 12 60 101 96 Pessimistic (15%) 5.82 4 8 20 19 99 118 64 13 55 75 75 Top Near-Age Comps: Ralph Birkofer, Jerry Reuss Player Spotlight - Ben Sheets ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 2.64 15 5 28 28 184 161 54 12 29 157 166 Mean 3.41 12 7 26 26 161 153 61 14 38 136 128 Pessimistic (15%) 4.32 7 8 21 21 127 133 61 15 36 101 101 Top Near-Age Comps: Bert Saberhagen, Erik Hanson Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported inthe offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More informationis always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3