[農場] Milwaukee Brewers Top 5
http://0rz.tw/7n8yo
1. Mat Gamel
Longtime Project Prospect readers have known of my fondness for Gamel since
his MVP season in the Hawaiian Winter league. In 2007 Gamel showed well in
High-A, hitting .300/.376/.472 but struggled defensively. A third baseman in
name only, Gamel committed 53 errors in 2007 yet also reached base in 53
straight games. He showed good improvement in 2008, going from -26 runs/150
in 2007 to -2. Along with modest improvement defensively, Gamel took another
step forward with the bat, posting a .395 wOBA last year in Double-A (.393
BABIP). In the first half of the 2008 season, Gamel was the best hitter in
all the minor leagues, as he put up wOBAs of .479, .462 and .425 in the first
three months of the season. Rare for a young lefty, Gamel is equally
effective against southpaws (946 OPS vs LHP and 926 OPS vs RHP). While his
future position on the defensive spectrum remains up in air, there are few
hitters in the minor leagues that are better bets to be solid major leaguer
hitters than Mat Gamel.
2. Alcildes Escobar
Signed out of Venezuela as a teenager, Escobar’s physical gifts are obvious.
A dynamic athlete with plus defensive range, arm strength, and foot speed,
Escobar struggled to put those tools to good use, until this year. After
making it to Double-A in 2007 as a 20-year-old, Escobar only managed to post
a .283/.306/.354 line in his first glimpse of the high minors. There were,
however, a few encouraging signs in his performance: his strikeout rate was
quite low for a young hitter in Double-A (14.7%) and his 17% line-drive rate
supported a solid BABIP of .333. In his second attempt at Double-A Escobar
was among the most improved offensive players in the minors, sporting a .350
wOBA and showing some improvement in his walk rate and power. Questions still
exist on whether Escobar will show enough secondary skills to be a productive
offensive player, his walk rate was just 5.2% last year (a career high) and
his IsoP was still a relatively weak .108 (also a career high). Given his
precocious defensive ability, Escobar is a safe bet to make it to the bigs.
How much his bat continues to improve will determine if he hits at the top of
the order or bottom.
3. Jeremy Jeffress
Jeffress continually draws Dwight Gooden comps, in both the most positive and
most negative sense possible. Blessed with lighting in his arm, Jeffress
routinely lights up radar guns hitting triple digits and working in the
mid-to-high 90’s. He flashes moments of being truly unhittable with a
devastating fastball and big hammer curve, unfortunately there are also times
when things go wrong and he allows them to snowball. Concerns over his
attitude surround Jeffress as he has already been suspended for 50 games for
failing multiple drug tests. The ultimate boom or bust guy, Jeffress showed
elite level strikeout rates (29.9%) but poor control (12.4% BB) in Low-A.
While he has the stuff to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, I think
everything seems to scream bullpen about Jeffress. If he can come close to
his potential, he’ll be an All-Star.
4. Angel Salome
All he does is hit. He doesn’t look like a ball player, struggles at times
behind the plate, he isn’t a great runner, but man can he hit. As a
22-year-old in Double-A, Salome hit .359/.413/.559 placing him among the
league leaders in virtually every offensive category (.431 wOBA led the
Southern League). Salome was the only hitter in the league under 25 years of
age to post an IsoP of .200 or more and strikeout less than 20% of the time –
he K’ed a scant 13.9%, which was his career high. His combination of
contact ability and power is unrivaled in the minor leagues and is the number
one reason you shouldn’t write off a guy just because he’s built like Yogi
Berra.
5. Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi love tore up our forums last spring, to the point where he rated as
my No. 1 high school pitcher in the country. We think he was a major steal
for the Brew Crew at pick No. 32 last June. High school righthanders are an
inherently risky commodity, but Odorizzi has everything that it takes to
succeed. Standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 180 pounds, Odorizzi has a perfect
frame with room for growth. With short arm action, he has plus velocity on
his fastball with a well developed and deep repertoire of breaking pitches.
Odorizzi showed well in a brief appearance in rookie ball, striking out 19 in
20 innings (21.4%). He’ll likely start next season in Low-A, but has the
potential to be a No. 2 starter behind Yovani Gallardo for a long time.
Honorable Mentions -- Brett Lawrie has already moved out from behind the
plate, but his bat has the potential to carry him at any position. The first
round pick out of a Canadian High School, Lawrie has plus power
potential...Lorenzo Cain should be a good defensive center fielder. His bat
took off this year, as he posted .351 and .360 wOBA’s in High-A and
Double-A. Cain has the power to hit 20 home runs in the majors (.209 IsoP in
AA).
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