[外電] Twenty-three guys better than Wang? No chance
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http://www.bugsandcranks.com/new-york-yankees/twenty-three-guys-better-than-wang-no-chance/
My post about whether or not Chien-Ming Wang is an ace seems to have stirred up the passions on both sides.
‘Chad’ goes so far as to take up my challenge to name 10 better starters — with stats — by dropping 23 names with ERA as his sole piece of evidence. Let’s be serious here and take Chad’s entire list, from my perspective, and I’ll tell you which pitcher I think is better right now.
Here is the list.
1. Jake Peavy
2. Johan Santana
3. Josh Beckett
4. CC Sabathia
5. Erik Bedard
6. Brandon Webb
7. John Smoltz
8. Dan Haren
9. Chris Young
10. Cole Hamels
11. John Lackey
12. Gil Meche
13. Justin Verlander
14. Matt Cain
15. Mark Buerhle
16. Oliver Perez
17. Scott Kazmir
18. Kelvim Escobar
19. Tim Hudson
20. Chad Billingsley
21. Roy Oswalt
22. Fausto Carmona
23. Brad Penny
Now let’s go one-by-one and break it down, looking at their numbers from 2006 and 2007. Those are, in fairness to Wang, his only full major league seasons.
1. Jake Peavy vs. Wang — 19-6 with a terrific 2.54 ERA last season. But, 11-14 with a worse than league average 4.09 ERA in 2006. Oh, and in two post-season starts, an 0-2 record with a 12.10 ERA. Wang in those two years is 38-13, having lost fewer games in two seasons that Peavy did in one. Advantage: Wang
2. Johan Santana — The Mets’ prized acquisition is clearly the best left-handed starter in the game (sorry, CC Sabathia). He has won 34 games in the past two seasons, and at least 15 in each of his four years as a starter. I’m not going to argue here, because Santan’s presence would make Wang a No. 2. One thing I will say, though, is a check of Santana’s post-season record reveals only a 1-4 career mark with a 3.97 ERA. So, regular season greatness does not always translate to post-season success.
Advantage: Santana
3. Josh Beckett — The only question there has ever been with Beckett has been health. He has answered that the last two seasons, pitching 200 or more innings each season. Beckett won 20 last year, but remember that he did post a 5.01 ERA in 2006. Still, his post-season work — 6-0 in 10 starts with a miniscule 1.73 ERA — separates him. Advantage: Beckett
4. CC Sabathia — 19-7 last season with a 3.21 ERA while winning the Cy Young Award, but only 7 games over .500 in the three seasons prior to that. Oh, and what did CC do in the playoffs last season? A 5.40 ERA against the Yankees and 10.45 in two starts against Boston. Again, regular season success means nothing in the post-season. Sabathia pitched 241 innings last season, the first time since 2002 he topped the 200 mark. I need to see him do it again. Advantage: None
5. Erik Bedard — Bedard is a nice pitcher, and I give him tons of credit for going 28-16 over two seasons with the bumbling Orioles. His 3.16 ERA pitching largely in that bandbox in Baltimore — almost 1.5 runs below league average — is impressive. But, Bedard has never pitched 200 innings in a season and you can’t be an ace if you haven’t proven you can carry the workload — which he hasn’t. Also, despite his nice numbers can you name a meaningful game the guy has ever pitched in. Let’s see what
he does this season with Seattle before we even consider Bedard for ‘ace’ status. Advantage: Wang
6. Brandon Webb — The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is a sinkerballer and maybe the most similar guy to Wang on this entire list. Webb has won 34 games the past two seasons and has pitched at least 229 innings each of the past three seasons. He strikes out more hitters than Wang and gives up fewer hits, but I would like to see how he would fare against American League lineups. For now, though, I’d give him a slight edge. Advantage: Webb
7. John Smoltz –The Braves’ righty has been a great pitcher for a long time, there is no arguing that. He has won 30 gams combined and pitched more than 200 innings in each of the past two seasons. He has been a terrific post-season pitcher as well, going 12-12 with a 2.65 ERA and four saves in 40 appearances. If I was choosing someone to build around I would take Wang. If I need someone to start one game, there is probably no one else I would rather give the ball to than Smoltz, who will soon be 41.
Advantage: Smoltz
8. Dan Haren — When was this guy ever the ace of any staff he has been on? He’s certainly not the ace this year in Arizona, so I’m not sure he should even be in this conversation. His 15-9 record last season was the most games he has ever won, and the first time in his career he has finished more than two games above .500. He’s a good pitcher and an innings-eater, having pitched at least 217 innings in each of his three full seasons, but that’s all. Advantage: Wang
9. Chris Young — Laughable that he is on this list. Won 9 games last year and has never won more than 12 in his career. Nice 3.12 ERA, but no better than a two or three on any staff, anywhere. On the Yankees he would be third behind Wang and Andy Pettitte, and maybe fourth behind Phil Hughes. Advantage: Wang
10. Cole Hamels — Hamels is headed for a terrific career. Yet, he has had one full big-league season and has yet to pitch 200 innings. Is he even the Phillies ace, or would that title go to Brett Myers who is back in the rotation after spending last year in the bullpen? Advantage: Wang
11. John Lackey — Dominant last season (19-9, 3.01 ERA), but more like Pettitte than a true No. 1. He’s been good for a while, but had never won more than 14 games prior to last season. I need to see him do it again before I call him a true ace. Advantage: Wang
12. Gil Meche — Like Chris Young, I find it incomprehensible that anyone can think Meche is a better pitcher than Wang. Won 15 games in 2003, but hasn’t won more than 11 since. Went 9-13 last year. I know he hasn’t pitched for good teams, but this is a guy with a 4.47 ERA in 8 seasons. He might be the best starter the Royals have, but you can hardly call him an ace. Advantage: Wang
13. Justin Verlander — This guy is a young Smoltz, a flamethrower who can be absolutely dominant when he is right. He went 35-15 the past two seasons, and at 25 is still growing into what will likely be a great career. Topped 200 innings for the first time last season (201). He has not been successful in the post-season yet, starting four games and pitching to a 5.82 ERA. Right now, he and Wang are probably equal. Verlander, though, is still getting better. Advantage: Verlander
14. Matt Cain — Are you freakin’ kidding me? A guy who went 7-16 last season and has a 22-29 career record? Ridiculous! Advantage: Wang
15. Mark Buerhle – A couple of years ago this might have been an argument. In 2004 and 2005 Buerhle was an ace. He has fallen a long way, though, going 22-22 the past two seasons and seeing his innings drop from 245 in 2004 to 201 last year. Buerhle is a middle of the rotation guy at this point in his career. Advantage: Wang
16. Oliver Perez — When I stop laughing maybe I’ll comment on this ………… OK, 15-10, 3.64 ERA last year. A nice year when there were no expectations for him, but he’s not an ace. When the Pirates thought he was he pitched himself back to AAA. Better than Wang? If you think so I feel sorry for you. Advantage: Wang
17. Scott Kazmir — Now this is a guy who COULD be an ace. He won a career high 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and worked more innings than Wang (206.7), but he is still young and still has a lot to prove. Included in that is whether or not he can stay healthy, carry a staff and pitch well in meaningful, pressure games. So far, he’s done none of those things. Advantage: Wang
18. Kelvim Escobar — Had a breakout season last year (18-7, 3.40 ERA), but prior to that was 90-90 in the first 10 seasons of his career. Great stuff, but one good season does not make him an ace. Advantage: Wang
19. Tim Hudson — This guy ‘was’ an ace for years in Oakland. He went 16-10 with a 3.33 ERA for Atlanta in 2007, his best season since 2003. Chews up a lot of innings and is a very good pitcher. To me, a lot like Haren or even Mike Mussina in his prime. Very good, I want him on my staff. But, I’m not sure he’s a No. 1 any longer. Advantage: Wang
20. Chad Billingsley — This guy has tremendous ability and might someday be an ace, but it’s too early for him to be in this conversation. It would like putting the Yankees’ Hughes in here, and at this point neither of them belong. Advantage: Wang
21. Roy Oswalt — This guy is an ace, but last year pitched his fewest innings (212) and won his fewest games (14) since 2003. He is a guy who doesn’t fear big games and has a 3-2 record in post-season with a 3.66 ERA. This is a tough call for me, but based on how long he has been doing it and the fact that he is still at — or very near — his peak, I would go with the Astro ace. Advantage: Oswalt
22. Fausto Carmona — Carmona was tremendous last season in his first full year in the big leagues, going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 215 innings. If he can do it again then I’ll say he is Wang’s class. But not yet. Advantage: Wang
23. Brad Penny — Penny has gone 32-13 the past two seasons. He did, however, post a 4.33 ERA in 2006 and that’s not an ‘ace’ ERA. Like with Carmona, I need to see another year like 2007, when he posted a 3.03 ERA and pitched 208 innings before I call him a real ace. Advantage: Wang
So, of the 23 starting pitchers ‘Chad’ wants to put ahead of Wang I will give you five, and call Sabathia a ‘push.’ That doesn’t mean there are only 5 guys better than Wang (Roy Halladay, for example, wasn’t on this list).
If you are fair about it, though, and really look at the numbers you have to admit Wang ranks pretty darn high on the list of best starting pitchers in the league.
An ace? Definitely.
Arguments, anyone? Let’s hear ‘em.
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