[情報] 2007 Offseason Plan
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6824
2007 Record: 78-84, third place
2007 Attendance: 3.6 million, third in NL
2007 Payroll: $90 million, 10th in baseball
Key Free Agents (2007) : SS-R David Eckstein, RHPs Kip Wells, Troy Percival,
and Joel Piniero (club option)
Key Free Agents (2008) : CF-L Jim Edmonds, RHPs Jason Isringhausen,
Braden Looper, OF-R Juan Encarnacion,
LHP Mark Mulder (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments:
1B-R Albert Pujols, $16M/year through 2010,plus 2010 club option;
3B-R Scott Rolen, $12M/year through 2010;
RHP Chris Carpenter, $13.5M/year trough 2011, plus 2012 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters:
OF-L Rick Ankiel,
CF-L Colby Rasmus
Needs: 1. One or preferably two quality starting pitchers;
2. SS, assuming that Eckstein departs;
3. 2B
What They Should Do:
Weak Buy. The Cardinals are going to need to get better if they want to
reach the playoffs.
What once was a “stars-and-scrubs” team is now down to a one-man show,
with Albert Pujols’s greatness unmatched by an aging Jim Edmonds, a gimpy
Scott Rolen, and an injured Chris Carpenter. But they don’t need to get that
much better.
The good news is that the Cardinals have a number of places that they could
gain simply by adding league average talent, particularly in the middle infield
and on the pitching staff.
Grabbing that kind of middle-tier free agent was once a Cardinal specialty.
Think ‘broken’ pitchers that Dave Duncan could work well with, like Freddy Garcia,
Bartolo Colon, or Dontrelle Willis.
The middle infield might be trickier, but players like Juan Uribe could be
attractive.
The Cardinals can probably avoid spending money on their outfield for the
time being, hoping to get better production out of some combination of Edmonds,
Chris Duncan, Ankiel, Rasmus, and possibly Encarnacion.
There is a secondary question about whether it’s revenue-maximizing for the C
ardinals to spend additional money. Their fans are extremely loyal,
they won the World Series in 2006, and their stadium is shiny and new.
In an ironic way,they have taken over the archetypal role of the Chicago Cubs,
in which the fans are so inclined to turn out rain or shine that it reduces
the marginal benefit from winning ballgames.
If the Cardinals had a little bit more minor league talent, in fact, you
could make a case for trading that goodwill in for a rebuilding year.
But in practice, the farm system is going to take another year or two to get
turned around, and failing to add talent now could leave the club with a
losing record for the next few seasons, which will begin to erode that
patience.
What They Will Do: Weak Buy. You don’t usually boot a GM like Walt Jocketty
to the curb without planning on shaking things up a little.
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◆ From: 211.22.47.210
※ 編輯: Andrew348 來自: 211.22.47.210 (10/15 16:22)
※ 編輯: Andrew348 來自: 211.22.47.210 (10/15 16:24)
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