[閒聊] Case Study: Dewon Brazelton

看板Cardinals作者keyboardmm (大學四年過好快啊..)時間18年前 (2007/11/25 17:06)推噓5(5推 0噓 0→)

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http://minorleagueball.com/story/2007/9/24/145553/591 Case Study: Dewon Brazelton Dewon Brazelton was a college star at Middle Tennessee State, going 13-2, 1.42 his junior year with a 154/24 K/BB ratio in 127 innings, allowing just 82 hits. Middle Tennessee State doesn't play the best competition in the world, but Brazelton also thrived from Team USA, eliminating any doubts scouts had about his performance against strong competition. In college he showed a 94-97 MPH fastball with movement, an outstanding changeup, and sharp control. His curveball was mediocre, and improving it was the main thing he needed to do as he transitioned into pro ball. The Devil Rays made him the third-overall pick in the 2001 draft, and he was projected to reach Tampa Bay by 2003 at the latest. It was not a controversial selection, and I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2002 book. Dewon Brazelton 是田納西州的大學明星，在127局中，投出了13勝2敗，1.42的防禦率， K/BB=154/24的成績，而且只被打了82支的安打。其實在田納西州的棒球競賽中表現的並不出色，但是Brazelton也入選美國隊，屏除一些懷疑他是因為不是對上強隊才創下的優秀紀錄不好的言論。在大學時他可以投出94-97MPH的速球，還有優秀的changeup和不錯的控球。他的curveball表現不太出色，所以他主要任務是把他的curveball練的更好。他在2001選秀以第三順位被魔鬼魚選走，在那時也被預測最晚在2003年可以升到大聯盟。而這個選秀並不是一個可以讓人懷疑的選秀，在當時我給了他B+的成績。 Brazelton began 2002 in Double-A, going 5-9 but with a fine 3.33 ERA in 26 starts for Orlando, with a 109/67 K/BB in 146 innings. He made one start in Triple-A, throwing five shutout innings, then finished the year with a couple of mediocre starts for the major league team. He continued to show a 93-95 MPH fastball, although some concerns were expressed that it was rather straight, and the strong changeup. His curveball, however, remained erratic, and this was reflected in his K/IP ratio which has slightly below Southern League average. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2003 book, but warned that he needed a full dose of Triple-A to polish the breaking ball, and that the Devil Rays would likely regret it if they rushed him ahead of schedule. 在2002年Brazelton升到2A，在26次先發中，投出5勝9敗有點糟的成績，但是防禦率3.33 還算不錯，另外在146局投球中，投出了K/BB=109/67的成績。而在這一年也在3A先發一場投出了5局沒失分，也在大聯盟先發了兩次成績普普。在這年，他依舊保持93-95MPH的速球，雖然有時候直球不太會跑(翻的有點口語XD)，還有不錯的changeup。而curveball 持續的不穩定，可以由他K/9低於Southern League的平均可以得知。我還是給他了B+ 的成績，但是也希望他能在3A多投一個完整的球季來加強他的breaking ball ，假如魔鬼魚隊提前升他上來，魔鬼魚也必須去承擔不好的後果。 The D-Rays sent Brazelton to Triple-A to open the 2003 season. He went 2-2, 4.21 in five starts with an 18/11 K/BB ratio, at which point he was promoted to the majors and inserted into the rotation. He pitched very poorly, overthrowing and losing the touch on his command. His curveball and changeup both regressed, his confidence fell apart, and in late June he was demoted all the way back to Single-A, to try and rebuild his game. He did not pitch well in the California League, going 1-5, 5.26 with a 42/19 K/BB in 50 innings and 62 hits allowed. He pitched a bit better late in the year, earning a promotion back to Double-A where he went 2-0, 2.53 in two starts. But '03 was clearly a disastrous season for him all-around. To try and right the ship, the Rays sent Brazelton to the Arizona Fall League to work on his mechanics and his curveball . He performed well there, and went into spring training 2004 with a chance to win a spot in the major league rotation once again 在2003開季，Brazelton從3A開始，在5次先發中投出2勝2敗，4.21的防禦率還有 K/BB=18/11的成績，在此時魔鬼魚把他升到大聯盟，並且進入投手輪值中。在大聯盟他投的很糟，他的curveball和changeup都相繼退步，他的信心也喪失不少，而在六月末他被降回1A。在California League也投的不太好，在50局的投球中，投出1勝5敗，防禦率5.26 ，K/BB=42/19的成績。在這一年的後半段，有點進步，所以晉升到2A，在2A的兩次先發， 2勝0敗，ERA=2.53。但是總結在03年是他悲慘的一季。為了加強他的能力，魔鬼魚在球季結束後送他到AFL。在那裡他表現的很好，所以他在2004年時也進入春訓名單，再一次挑戰大聯盟。 Brazelton pitched fairly well in spring training but opened the year in Triple-A. He went 4-4, 4.71 in 10 starts with a 38/15 K/BB ratio in 50 innings. In need of pitching, the Rays promoted him to the majors in June and he spent the rest of the season in the rotation, going 6-8, 4.77 with a 64/53 K/BB ratio in 121 innings. At times he was very effective, but his curveball was still mediocre, his changeup was not as good as it used to be, and his fastball, while fast, was often too straight. He was even worse in 2005 (7.61 ERA in 71 innings, mostly in relief), and in '06 the Rays gave up on him completely and shipped him to San Diego for Sean Burroughs. Brazelton在春訓時投的相當不錯，但是在開季時也只能從3A開始。在10次先發，50局投球中，4勝4敗，4.71的防禦率，K/BB=38/15。在六月時，魔鬼魚急需要投手，所以也就把他拉上來；而在剩下的球季中，121局他投出6勝8敗，ERA=4.77；K/BB=64/53。此時他的curve ball還是一樣沒什麼進步，changeup表現的並不是很好，然而他的速球雖然還是一樣快，但是沒什麼尾勁。在2005年時表現的更糟(ERA=7.61)，在06年魔鬼魚正式放棄他，把他交易到San Diego。 He has spent '06 and '07 mostly at the minor league level, and at age 27 he seems fully established as a journeyman pitcher. He still has a good arm, but the secondary pitches just haven't developed. He's developed a reputation as a hard worker, but also as a pitcher who battles himself and lacks confidence. 在06，07年大部份都在小聯盟游走，似乎注定成為一個浪人投手。他仍然有好的身體素質，可以丟出頗快的直球，但是欠缺第二個球路，還有缺乏自信心。 What the hell happened here? The easy theory is that Brazelton was never as good as he looked in college, that the gaudy stats at Middle Tennessee State misled everyone. But the fact is that he also pitched great for Team USA (pitching better than Mark Prior did actually). I don't think his success there was an illusion, and his fastball and changeup were really outstanding back then. Something else happened here. 很多方面都揣測Brazelton沒有和大學一樣有不錯的成績，是因為他處在的大學環境並不是一個在棒球方面很出色的地方，因此成績誤導許多人以為他是一個不錯的投手。但是事實上他可以在美國隊中投出不錯的成績(投的比Mark Prior還好)。所以我並不認同上面那些言論，況且他有不錯的速球和chageup。 Scouts knew from the beginning that he had problems with his breaking ball, and sabermetrically this was apparent in the weakish strikeout rate in the minors. But why wasn't he able to develop a better one? I think there is no question at all that he was promoted to the majors too quickly in 2003. He wasn't ready, and it showed, and every part of his game went backwards after that. He's the kind of pitcher who would definitely have benefited from a bullpen apprenticeship, rather than being thrown into the rotation for a bad team. Maybe with better handling he would have adjusted, and maybe he wouldn't have. Maybe he should have ditched the traditional breaking ball and tried something different like a forkball or splitter, especially when being used out of the bullpen. 從相關報導可以得知他在對於breaking ball的掌握度並不是這麼好，這也就是造就他在小聯盟並沒有出色的三振能力。但是為什麼他沒有辦法加強這部份呢? 我想主要原因是在於太快升到大聯盟了。在那時他並沒有準備好；還有他應該是從牛棚開始慢慢學習，並不能馬上把他拉進Rotation。未來也許他會變的不錯，也許也不會。也許他應該放棄他原本所練的breaking ball，然而去嚐試新球種，像是forkball或是 splitter。 Dewon Brazelton is still relatively young, and he still has a major league arm. With the right coach in the right situation, he could still make a contribution at the major league level. Brazelton仍然是相當的年輕，而且他有不錯的身體素質。如果有一個不錯的教練，在適當的情況下去調教，他在大聯盟也會有一席之地的。 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 會翻譯這一篇是因為前不久Brazelton剛和我們簽了小聯盟合約，由本文作者John Sickels推測他有可能是因為被魔鬼魚Rush才會變成浪人所以希望他在春訓時候我們家老Duncan看可不可以好好調教他，明年他應該會從3A開始，如果明年有明顯進步，他未來應該會是一個不錯的4~5號SP。希望再生工廠在創造奇蹟吧.....XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.114.207.110