[閒聊] Baseball Taps Wisdom of Fans

看板Cardinals作者ColbyRasmus (Raz)時間17年前 (2008/03/09 23:43)推噓1(1推 0噓 2→)

留言3則, 2人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120485693123318577.html?mod=weekend_leisure_ 這篇文章是根據上個月紅鳥在網站上發起的活動而寫的。如有不適，我再刪文。 If you've ever dreamed of being a Major League Baseball scout, your day has come. 你曾夢想著成為大聯盟球探嗎?機會來了。 Last month, the St. Louis Cardinals announced a novel contest: Fans are invited to submit scouting reports on promising college ballplayers. The "One for the Birds" contest is meant to help the team find talent at smaller, non-Division I colleges that don't get much attention from scouts. Fans file entries by going to the Cardinals' Web site and filling out a form, including the player's name, statistics and a summarized recommendation of up to 300 words and other information. When the submissions are in, the team plans to send its own scouts to evaluate a handful of the most interesting prospects and, in June, to possibly select one or more of them in baseball's amateur draft. The winning fan -- the one whose entry is judged most compelling, whether a player is drafted or not -- gets a trip to St. Louis to see a pair of ball games. 上個月，聖路易紅雀發起一項新活動:邀請球迷送份關於有前途的大學球員的球探報告。 "One For The Birds"這項活動在於幫助球隊找尋有才能但未被球探注意到的smaller, non-Division I colleges的球員。球迷可上紅雀官網提交報告，填好格式:包括球員姓名、數據、三百字以上的簡單建議以及其他資訊。當報告提出後，球隊計畫將報告交給球探去評估一些有趣的新秀；並且在六月時，有可能在選秀時挑選這些球員。無論球迷所報告的球員有無被球隊選上，只要這份報告寫得最令人信服，其作者就成為這項活動的贏家。而這位贏家可獲邀到聖路易看個兩場比賽。 "We don't have a monopoly on baseball knowledge," says Sig Mejdal, the Cardinals' senior quantitative analyst who helped create the contest. "Just looking at the fan sites and posting boards, you see an amazing amount of energy. Why not harness it?" 幫助發起這項活動的紅雀資深數據分析家Sig Mejdal說，"不是只有我們才懂棒球。逛逛那些球迷網站或是討論版，對於他們那繁盛的討論你一定會感到驚奇。那為什麼不好好利用呢?" The Cardinals' program is believed to be the first of its kind, but several sports franchises -- especially baseball teams -- have also begun to breach the divide that traditionally separates fans from team management. Last season, the Seattle Mariners used a report prepared by a friendly blogger to help one of the team's young pitchers. And one independent-league team from Illinois allowed fans to set the team's starting lineup. 紅雀的這項活動將是個創舉。但其實有一些運動，特別是棒球，已開始打破傳統上球迷與球隊管理間的分界線。上個球季，西雅圖水手隊就利用一位部落客的報告來幫助隊上一位年輕的投手。而伊利諾州一個獨立聯盟的球隊也讓球迷為他們安排先發打線。 These moves are often aimed at improving public relations. But they also suggest a new line of thinking among owners and managers of sports franchises. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of independent team-centric Web sites where partisan fans -- some of whom are mathematicians or scientists with Ph.D.s -- share their own enlightened statistical research and scouting analyses. Teams haven't just taken notice -- they are looking for ways to leverage all this brainpower. 這些改變常用來增進公共關係。而球迷也對職業球團擁有者提供新的思考方式。近年來，許多以球隊為主的私人網站激增。在這些網站上，更有些數學或是科學博士之類的球隊支持者提供他們所撰寫的優異數據研究以及球探分析。球隊不只會對這些感到有興趣，他們更找尋著該如何利用這些智囊團的力量的方法。 Baseball is the latest business to take tentative steps toward tapping into a concept known as "the wisdom of crowds" (the title of a James Surowiecki book), the idea that a group can make some judgments better than an individual. Industries from computer programming to drug making have been turning to the opinions of skilled amateur observers and open "prediction markets" to help with everything from designing software to deciding where to mine for gold. Hewlett-Packard Co., for example, asks its employees to predict the firm's revenue and profit as a supplement to its own forecasts. 棒球是最新的一項嘗試採取"群眾智慧"觀念的職業運動(群眾智慧:James Surowiecki的書名)，這觀念講述團體的決策優於個人的決定。從電腦工程到藥物製作這些行業，都已經藉由專精的業餘觀察者提供的意見、以及開放的"預測市場"，來協助從軟體設計到尋找金礦等一切大小事物。(下列例子與棒球無關，故省略) Of the major American sports, baseball stands to benefit most from this strategy. Unlike pro basketball and football teams, which draft only a handful of players, baseball clubs will draft some 1,500 players each year out of a pool of tens of thousands. The pool encompasses not just high-school phenoms and big-college stars but also players from smaller schools. Albert Pujols, the Cardinals' All-Star first baseman, was the 402nd overall pick in the 1999 draft out of Metropolitan Community College-Maple Woods (Mo.). 在美國職業運動裡，棒球是最早從這項策略中獲益的運動。不像職業籃球或美式足球，每年只挑選出少數新秀；每年棒球運動從上萬名選手中挑選出約1500名球員。這些候選球員不只包含出色的高中球員與明星大學的球星，也有些人來自於一些不知名的學校。紅雀明星一壘手Albert Pujols就是在1999年在第402個順位從Metropolitan Community College- Maple Woods (Mo.)被選中。 Since the emergence of baseball analyst Bill James in the early 1980s, baseball has had a strong tradition of populist research. For many years, teams largely ignored the work of these unpaid fans. But lately, they have are starting to acknowledge it and, in some cases, use it to help the team win. 自從1980年代初期一位棒球分析者Bill James的出現，棒球開啟了平民分析的盛大傳統。多年來，棒球隊伍忽略了許多球迷所做出來的分析。但到了最近，他們開始體認到這些研究並且使用它們來幫助球隊獲勝。 Last season, Dave Cameron, co-founder of U.S.S. Mariner, the Web site of choice for obsessive fans of the Seattle Mariners, said he had grown tired of watching one of the team's starting pitchers, Felix Hernandez, get bombed by opposing hitters early in games. He did a pitch-by-pitch analysis of Mr. Hernandez's starts, which revealed an overreliance on fastballs. Mr. Cameron then wrote an open letter to the Mariners' pitching coach, urging him to tell Mr. Hernandez to throw more off-speed pitches in the early innings. 上個球季，一個水手迷的網站－U.S.S Mariner的聯合創立者Dave Cameron說他已經厭倦看著隊上的先發投手Felix Hernandez在開賽前幾局被對手狂轟爛炸。他對King Felix的先發投球做了每一球的分析；這分析透漏出King Felix對快速球的過度依賴。接著Cameron寄了封公開信給水手隊的投手教練，勸告他告訴King Felix在開賽初期多多使用變化球。 The pitching coach showed the letter to Mr. Hernandez, who made the suggested adjustment and shut out the Oakland Athletics for eight innings in a subsequent start. 投手教練將信轉給King Felix看。接著King Felix依照建議做了修正並在接下來對奧克蘭運動家的比賽中完封了八局。 The Schaumburg Flyers, an independent-league team just outside of Chicago, have taken fan involvement to a different level, albeit partly for publicity. During the second half of the 2006 season, the team allowed fans to vote online to select the Flyers' lineup. The results were disastrous: After going 31-17 during the first half under conventional management, the Flyers went 15-33 in the second. 而在芝加哥外圍一個獨立聯盟的球隊Schaumburg Flyers，讓球迷參與不同的球隊決策－雖然只是部分公開而已。在2006年的下半季，Flyers讓球迷在線上為球隊打線做安排。結果引發一場大災難。上半季在傳統管理時，Flyers成績為31勝17敗；到了下半季，成績則來到15勝33敗。(XD) Richard Ehrenreich, the Flyers' managing partner, says he believes in the wisdom of crowds. He blames the team's second-half slide on injuries and player departures and says the team may bring back the program this season. "It gets fans involved," he says. "It's a way to grow the sport." Flyers的管理夥伴Richard Ehrenreich則說他信任群眾的智慧。他將下半季的失敗歸咎於球員的受傷及離隊；並且還說下個球季還會繼續使用這個計畫。"這讓觀眾一同參與，並且還是可讓運動成長的一種方法。" ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁ 這是球隊活動的官方網頁，有興趣的可以看一下: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/fan_forum/oneforthebirds_index.jsp 台灣的球員應該不能寫吧:P 其實這個idea蠻有趣的，讓球迷嘗試做主的滋味。棒球版每到國際賽就有永無止境的打序文，要是中華隊也採用"球迷當家"的策略不知會怎樣? (我是覺得會被一大堆鄉民搞垮啦XD) GM Mo上任以後對於小聯盟部門做了很大的改變。希望未來能夠開花結果，也希望這個計畫能為球隊帶來優異選手。有人要寫嗎?可以去看球賽喔~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.122.39.236