[情報] Top 20 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals (2/20 …

看板Cardinals作者abc12812時間17年前 (2009/02/25 19:12)推噓5(5推 0噓 2→)

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http://camdendepot.com/winter2009_prospects_top20_STL.html Summary The St. Louis organization is in fine shape, with a solid collection of talent at both the lower- and upper-levels. However, while the sum of the prospects is impressive, the distribution is not necessarily ideal. The Cardinals are heavy in corner infielders, outfielders and relief pitching but are thin up-the-middle and with pitchers that project to start at the Major League level. Much of the high ceiling talent is ready to make the jump to the big club, including Colby Rasmus (1), Chris Perez (3), Brett Wallace (2), Jason Motte (8), Jesse Todd (6), David Freese (13), Bryan Anderson (4) and Allen Craig (14). The Cardinals may not have room for all of these players, meaning one or more could be shipped out (either individually or packaged) to help fill some of the remaining holes at the big league level. =============================================================================== 1. Colby Rasmus | Stats | Depot Grade: A 6-1 / 175 | Age - 22 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R1) | Phoenix HS (AZ) Floor: Below-AVG CF | Ceiling: All-star CF | Projection: Above-AVG CF Notes: Rasmus saw his season cut short in 2008 due to injury. Historically a slow starter, 2008 was no exception for the young center-fielder, as Rasmus struggled in April and May before catching fire in June (.333/.441/.535, 20 SO/18 BB in 118 PA). Even with a slightly disappointing season, the Cardinals had to be pleased that their young uber-prospect held his own, while showing flashes of dominance, as a 21-year old in AAA. Rasmus shows plus-power and is able to drive the ball pole-to-pole when on. He brings an advanced approach to the plate and commands the strikezone well. In the field he covers the gaps in center and shows above-average skills in tracking the ball. His arm is strong and accurate and he sets himself up well to deliver the ball to the infield. He rounds out his tool box with above-average baserunning, boasting a career stolen-base percentage over 80%. Rasmus is one of the best young players in the game and could make an impact in the Cardinals as early as 2009. 2. Brett Wallace | Stats | Depot Grade: A- 6-1 / 245 | Age - 22 | 3B | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | Arizona State University Floor: AVG 1B | Ceiling: All-star 3B | Projection: Above-AVG 3B Notes: Wallace was one of, if not the, most refined college bats in the 2008 class. He routinely squares-up with authority and could be a plus-plus-hitter when all is said and done. In addition to a smooth lefty stroke, Wallace has an advanced approach at the plate. While he commands the strikezone well, he hasn’t had to draw many walks in his short pro career, instead relying upon an aggressive approach and superior hand/eye coordination against overmatched pitching. As he progresses at the upper-levels, he should see an up-tick in his walk rate as pitchers become more reticent to feed him hittable stuff. For the past few seasons scouts have been predicting a shift off of third due to his below-average range, and for the past few seasons Wallace has proven them wrong. Though he doesn’t move well side-to-side, he has as plus-arm and solid hands helping him along. There’s a pretty solid 1B already in St. Louis, so the Cardinals will keep him at third as long as they can. He could make an impact in St. Louis this summer and should be a regular player in the batting race moving forward. 3. Chris Perez | Stats | Depot Grade: B+ 6-4 / 225 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R1s) | University of Miami (FL) Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Closer Notes: Perez is the leading candidate to take over ninth-inning duties in the Cardinals bullpen. The intimidating righty comes with a heavy fastball sitting in the mid-90s, pairing the plus-offering with an above-average slider sitting in the mid-80s. Both pitches are legit swing-and-miss offerings and he’s able to use his slider effectively both in and out of the zone. His curve is a solid third pitch that serves primarily as a change-of-pace, though it flashes above-average late bite. Perez works both sides of the plate and is particularly effective down in the zone with his slider. The focus for 2009 will be command in the zone with his fastball and cutting down on the walks. If everything clicks, he could be a dominant closer for years to come. 4. Bryan Anderson | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-1 / 195 | Age - 22 | C | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2005 (R4) | Simi Valley HS (CA) Floor: Below-AVG C | Ceiling: Above-AVG C | Projection: AVG C Notes: Anderson cruised through April in the Double-A Texas League before making the jump to Triple-A Memphis as a 21-year old. The left-handed hitting catcher held his own, posting a solid line of .284/.369/.381, including an impressive .308/.384/.415 against lefties. The biggest chink in the offensive armor is power, which hasn’t fully developed at the upper-levels. Anderson’ s compact swing, solid strikezone command and above-average bat speed, however, could eventually produce average power at the Major League level (above-average for a catcher). Defensively, Anderson needs to improve all aspects of his game. He’s a below-average receiver with fringy (but improving) catch-and-throw skills (leading to inconsistencies in his accuracy). As he works to iron-out his transfer and his footwork, he should continue to see improvements in his throws. With Molina in place in St. Louis, the Cardinals will take their time with Anderson, starting him back at AAA Memphis in 2009. 5. Adam Reifer | Stats | Depot Grade: B 6-2 / 195 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R11) | University of California - Riverside Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: Reifer put together a solid season at Batavia, boasting a K/9IP rate of just under 12 and a GB% of 57.7. The hard-throwing righty has true power stuff, highlighted by a mid-90s fastball that ticks-up to the upper-90s when he rears back. His slider is a hard biter that flashes 2-plane action and routinely gets up to the low-90s. Reifer has even shown an occasional changeup with solid arm speed, though he hasn’t had to use the pitch too often, as of yet. At his best, Reifer has plus-plus-stuff easy to picture in the back of a Major League pen. His largest obstacle at this point is command across the board, a max-effort delivery and a history of elbow troubles. If he can stay healthy and find consistency with his slider he should move quickly. 6. Jesse Todd | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 5-11 / 210 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R2) | University of Arkansas Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: Todd spots his fastball well on both sides of the plate, sitting in the upper-80s with a boring 2-seamer and the low-90s with a straighter 4-seamer. His slider is a solid second offering that plays well both in and out of the zone, sitting in the low-80s for the most part. While Todd spent most of his 2008 as a starter, a fringy third offering (changeup), some durability questions and an inability to maintain his stuff the second and third time through the order (Todd’s K-rate strongly decreases after the third inning) might make the bullpen a more likely destination. In relief, he was able to add a bit of velocity on his fastball and his slider – each of which could play as plus-offerings. After spending most of 2008 in Springfield, Todd will likely start 2009 in Memphis, getting a taste of Major League ball at some point in the season. With a number of capable young bullpen arms already in the fold, the Cardinals could also look to move Todd as part of a package for some established starting pitching or a second baseman. 7. Daryl Jones | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 5-11 / 180 | Age - 21 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R3) | Rice University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG LF | Projection: AVG LF Notes: Jones shot up many prospect lists over the course of the 2008 season, though we’d like to see a little more in 2009 before fully buying-in. The former Owl moves well in the outfield, tracking well and covering the gap. His arm, however, is erratic and not particularly strong (which may limit him to LF). The good news is his bat should profile fine in left so long as he can continue to build upon his 2008. Jones flashes solid power to all fields, though each of his 13 homeruns was to right. His pitch-ID is a bit below-average still, at times preventing him from squaring-up. He helps his case by showing a solid understanding of the strikezone and taking advantage of hitters counts. Jones could open 2008 back in AA as the crowded St. Louis outfield will allow the Cardinals to take their time with his development. 8. Jason Motte | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 6-0 / 200 | Age - 26 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2003 (19) | Iona College Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: After switching over to pitching, Motte has done nothing but blow hitters away. Prior to his ML promotion, he struck out a whopping 110 batters in just 68.7 IP at AAA Memphis in a hitter-friendly Pacific Cost League. His fastball is a hard plus-plus offering with mid- to upper-90s velocity thrown with a quick arm action that helps the ball get in on the hitter even faster. He still lacks a consistent change-of-pace offering, which could give hitters another look, but is regardless ready to throw out of the back of a Major League pen. He pounds the strikezone and has the mound presence and mentality to handle high-leverage situations. He’ll continue to work on a change-of-pace pitch while competing this spring with Chris Perez for the closer position in St. Louis. 9. Pete Kozma | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 6-0 / 170 | Age - 20 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | Owasso HS (OK) Floor: UTL | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: Below-AVG SS Notes: Kozma is solid across the board, though none of his tools jump off the page. Kozma comes with a solid approach at the plate and does an adequate job controlling the strikezone. While he’s capable of using the whole field, his power is almost exclusively to the pull side (his power is also limited by his bat speed, which is merely average). Defensively, Kozma has plenty of arm for short and shows solid footwork on his pivots and around the bag. He has soft hands but doesn’t range particularly well (especially in the hole). Kozma profiles best as a 6/7 hitter with 2 upside if he can keep a solid contact rate and improve on going oppo with some authority. He could be an average defensive shortstop or slide over to second. 10. Niko Vasquez | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 5-11 / 175 | Age - 19 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R3) | Durango HS (NV) Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: AVG 3B Notes: Selected in the third round of the 2008 Rule 4 Draft, Vasquez offers a fair amount of projection and a solid skill set for a high school shortstop. At the plate, Vasquez keeps a short path to the ball and does a solid job of keeping his bat in the hit zone for a good portion of the cut. He centers the ball well and is capable of driving the ball to the gaps (though he found more success to the pull side this past season). His strikezone command is adequate, though there is plenty of room for improvement. Defensively, Vasquez has only average range, though he’s slightly better up-the-middle than to his throwing arm side. His soft hands and strong, accurate arm easily play at the six-spot and he’s improving his footwork around the bag, As he fills-out, he may need to shift to third if his range deteriorates, where his power may be a bit light. He’ll be one of the more interesting young Cards to watch in 2009 and is a solid breakout candidate. 11. Francisco Samuel | Stats | Depot Grade: B- 6-1 / 150 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2006 | Dominican Republic Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief Notes: Samuel’s pure stuff is electric, though he still has a ways to go, developmentally. His fastball is a solid mid-90s offering that can get up to 97 mph with above-average late life. His slider is a second power offering, sitting in the mid-80s and touching 88 with solid late bite. Samuel’s biggest shortcoming is his control, which is in part a product of inconsistencies in his arm action and release point. While his 12.75 SO/9 IP over two levels in 2008 was impressive, he paired it with a walk rate of over 7 BB/9 IP. He also has some trouble commanding his fastball in the zone, though he has so much velocity and life that it hasn’t gotten him into much trouble yet. Samuel needs to improve his control and consistency, particularly with his slider (it saucers when he doesn’t stay on top of it). If he can make some strides in those areas, he’ll move quickly. 12. Jaime Garcia | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-2 / 200 | Age - 22 | LHP | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2005 (R22) | Mission (TX) Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter Notes: Garcia’s 2008 ended on a down note, cut short by elbow surgery. If not for the question marks now surrounding his future health, the lefty likely have ranked in the top 5 of our list off the strength of two plus-pitches and solid pitchability. His fastball sits in the upper-80s to low-90s with good life (both sink and some armside run) and his curve is a hard 12/6 downer that can change the hitter’s eye-level. His changeup is below-average but has improved over the past two seasons as he’s found more consistency with his arm slot and arm speed. 2009 will be a wash, but the left has enough stuff to remain in the 2010 rotation picture even if he doesn ’t come all the way back. He’s a safer bet for back-end production than his mid-rotation ceiling, but his solid approach and arsenal should give the Cardinals some hope. 13. David Freese | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-2 / 215 | Age - 25 | 3B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R9) | South Alabama University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG 3B | Projection: Below-AVG 3B Notes: After a solid but unspectacular start to the 2008 season, Freese finished strong in July, August and three days in September posting a line of .351/.398/.634 over his final 205 ABs. Perhaps most impressive was Freese’s ability to drive the ball from pole to pole, both in and out of the park. Though he strikes out a fair amount and benefited from a healthy .353 BABIP in a hitter’s league, the skill set is there for Freese to hit for solid average and power at the next level. Defensively, Freese was above-average at third with adequate range and hands. His biggest hurdle will be competition with uber-prospect Brett Wallace who figures to start ’09 in AAA and move-up to St. Louis sooner rather than later. His best path to a starting Major League job may be with another organization (perhaps packaged with another redundancy like Todd). 14. Allen Craig | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-2 / 190 | Age - 24 | 3B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R8) | University of California - Berkley Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG 3B | Projection: Below-AVG 3B Notes: Craig put together a fine 2008, though he still finds himself behind both Wallace and Freese on the depth chart. His best tool is his above-average power to all fields – a result of a solid leverage in his swing and solid strikezone command. His focus at the plate should be improving his ability to center the ball, which could be aided by improved pitch-ID. He’s more adequate than spectacular on the defensive side, displaying fringy range and an average arm. Craig has a lot of bodies to jump over if he’s to win some time in St. Louis. His best shot may be a trade to a team looking for a young 3B/1B/DH with some pop. With Wallace at 3B in Memphis and Freese either at 1B or with the big club, St. Louis will need to get a little creative to get him his ABs at AAA. 15. Lance Lynn | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-5 / 250 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1s) | University of Mississippi Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #5 Starter Notes: Selected in the supplemental first round of the 2008 amateur draft, Lynn’s game is pitchability. He boasts a solid four pitch mix, commanding all of his offerings well. Lynn’s fastball sits in the low-90s and his slider the low-80s with solid average tilt. Both his changeup and curve are mid-70s offerings that keep hitters off balance, though his straightish change is clearly the weakest of his offerings at this point. With a solid, durable build and advanced approach, Lynn should move quickly and is a fairly safe bet to eventually eat up innings in the St. Louis rotation. The extent to which he can refine his secondary offerings will determine whether those innings are mid-rotation or back-end rotation value. 16. Roberto de la Cruz | Stats - N/A | Depot Grade: C+ 6-2 / 180 | Age - 17 | 3B | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2008 | Dominican Republic Floor: Non-prospect | Ceiling: Above-AVG 3B | Projection: AVG 3B Notes: Reports out of Fall Instructionals were impressive regarding the 2008 international signee. De la Cruz’s combination of above-average bat speed and an advanced approach for his age helps him to profile to plus-power. Defensively, the young Dominican boasts soft hands and a plus-arm, though his solid average speed may help him eventually profile to a corner outfield spot. He’ll be one of the more exciting young Cards to watch in the 2009 season – most likely in the Appalachian League though he may be advanced enough to jump straight to Short-season Batavia after extended Spring Training. 17. Mitchell Boggs | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-3 / 195 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2005 (R5) | University of Georgia Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #5 Starter Notes: The former Georgia Bulldog has a sturdy, durable frame and two lively fastballs. His four-seamer is low-90s offering with some late cutting action, while his two-seamer generally comes in around 3-4 mph slower flashing plus-sink. Boggs’s slider is his best secondary offering, boasting solid bite and a late break, making it a legit swing-and-miss threat. The two most glaring holes in his game are command and a viable third offering to use against lefties (8 of the 11 HR he allowed in 2008 came against lefties despite facing almost 40% more righties). Boggs is so effective against righties that the Cardinals should have no qualms about shifting him to the pen if he can’t figure things out this season. Though his two fastball / slider combo should play fine, he may lack the true power stuff to profile effectively in the late innings. Instead, he could serve as a seventh inning situational arm. For now, the Cards will keep him in the rotation and hope he can refine his changeup. 18. Jon Jay | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 5-11 / 200 | Age - 23 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2006 (R2) | University of Miami (FL) Floor: 4th OF | Ceiling: AVG CF | Projection: Below-AVG LF Notes: Jay provides solid defense in center, ranging well with a solid-average arm. At the plate, the lefty shows solid command of the strikezone and an ability to work the count. He squares-up consistently and thrives using the whole field, though his homerun power is almost exclusively to the pull side. With Rasmus ahead of him on the depth chart, Jay could run into trouble trying to break into a crowded St. Louis outfield. His power profile isn’t what you’d typically find in the corners, but if he can provide above-average defense in the left to go with solid on-base numbers he could provide adequate value. He’ll likely start 2009 back in Memphis and wait for his chance with the big club. 19. Richard Castillo | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 5-11 / 165 | Age - 19 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2007 | Venezuela Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief Notes: Castillo posted highly impressive lines across two levels in 2008 – 2.62/1.06 (LoA Quad Cities) and 1.12/1.25 (HiA Palm Beach) – aided in part by a combined BABIP of .274. Still, his size and stuff may limit his ultimate upside. Castillo’s fastball is unspectacular, sitting in the upper-80s, but he spots it well with plus-command. His secondary offerings are raw as he flashes solid spin on a curveball and a changeup that’s little more than a show-me pitch at this point. He’ll stay in a rotation (either LoA or HiA) in 2009 and remain a starter until he proves incapable. It will be interesting to see how he develops over the next couple of seasons. 20. Shane Peterson | Stats | Depot Grade: C+ 6-0 / 195 | Age - 20 | OF | B/T - L/L | Drafted - 2008 (R2) | Long Beach State University Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG RF | Projection: Below-AVG LF Notes: Peterson’s best attribute is above-average bat speed that helps him to produce solid gap-to-gap power that could eventually develop into solid average homerun pop. He’s an advanced hitter with a good idea of the strikezone and solid on-base skills. He still struggles to stay back and drive offspeed offerings to left, but this should improve as he refines his pitch-ID. Defensively, Peterson is adequate and should be average in the corners. The former Dirtbag will likely open 2009 in LoA Quad Cities. =============================================================================== 10 More Prospects to Watch Fernando Salas Scott Gorgen Jarrett Hoffpauir Xavier Scruggs P.J. Walters Curt Smith Clayton Mortensen Anthony Ferrara Mark Worrell Adam Ottavino Organizational Leaders: Hitting – Brett Wallace Power – Colby Rasmus Defense – Pete Kozma RHSP – Lance Lynn LHSP – Jaime Garcia Future RP – Chris Perez 2009 Breakout Candidates: Pitcher – Francisco Samuel Hitter – Roberto de la Cruz Bounce-back Candidate: Clayton Mortensen -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3